Unit 5: Probabilities Prof.

María Raquel Martínez

What is Probability?
• Probability measures the frequency with which a particular outcome occurs when an
experiment; it is used as a model to make deductions related to events that possibly
may occur.
• The term probability refers to the study of randomness and uncertainty. In any
situation where one of several possible outcomes occurs, probability theory
provides methods to quantify the opportunities, or probabilities, associated with various
results.
• The study of probability as a branch of mathematics dates back more than 300 years, and it
originated as gambling questions.

Experiments and Random Events

Random Experiment: E. A. is called any random phenomenon or phenomenon resulting from chance.
Examples:
• Coin toss,
• Number of incoming calls in a given time recorded in a company or amount of
clients who access a service
• Take a final exam

Sample Space: It is the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.

Examples:
• Coin toss S={head, tail}
• Number of incoming calls over a given time recorded in a company or amount of
clients who access a service S={0, 1, 2, 3, …………}
• Taking a final exam S ={ ["approved","deferred"]}

Event or Occurrence: It is each outcome of the random experiment or a combination of outcomes.

it is also a subset of the sample space. The events are represented with the
letters A, B, C.
Example:
Considering the experiment of taking a final exam S={aprobado, aplazado}so let's take
an event A= approved.

Types of Events or Incidents

[Link] Event (A): it is made up of a single element.
[Link] Event (E): an event or occurrence that will always happen.
3. Impossible EventφIt is the event that will never happen.
4. Complementary Event (ACGiven an event A, its contrary event is called
complement to the event that occurs when A does not happen is made up of all the
elements of the sample space that do not belong to A.
5. Mutually Exclusive Events: Having two events A and B defined in the same space.
sample, it is said to be M. Ex. If they cannot occur together at the same time, that is, the occurrence of
one of them excludes the other.

Algebra of Events
Definition: Let U be a given set, and A, B two subsets.
Launión, A∪ B, from A and B is{x ∈ U/x is a member of at least one of the sets A, B}.
The intersection, A∩ B, from A and B is{x∈ U/ x belongs to both sets A and B}

According to this definition, a necessary and sufficient condition for two sets A, B
they have common elements is that, A∩ B≠ φif A∩ B = φsets A and B are called
disjoint

Properties of Union and Intersection

Each of the operations∪ y∩ es:
[Link]:∀ A∪ A = A = A∩ A
Associative: A∪ (B∪ C) = (A∪ B)∪ C y ( A∩ B)∩ C = A∩ (B∩ C)
[Link]: A∪ B = B∪ A y A∩ B = B∩ A
Moreover,∩ is distributive with respect to∪ y∪ it is distributive with respect to∩
A∩ (B∪ C) = (A∩ B)∪ (A∩ C)
Unit 5: Probabilities Prof. María Raquel Martínez

Morgan's Laws
If A and B are random events subsets of the sample space E, then
AC∪ BC= ( A∩ B)C2. AC∩ BC= ( A∪ B)C

Classical Probability: also called a priori probability because it is possible to know the outcome.
previously; that is to say, without carrying out the experiment and only based on logical reasoning.
Favorable cases of occurrence A
P(A)=
Total possible cases of A
Example: What is the probability of getting a grade of 3 in a final statistics exam?
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}

Where:
A = get a 3. The total number of possible cases is 5. The favorable outcome of getting a 3 is 1.
1
P(A)= = 0.2≈ 20%
5

Properties of probability
Probability is a law that assigns a real number to each event A of a sample space and
check the following properties:
The probability of any event is always non-negative. P(A)≥ 0
2. The probability of an event takes values between 0≤ P(A)≤0 1 and 1.
3. The probability of a certain or guaranteed event is the probability that indicates the sample space, which
includes all possible outcomes or events of the E.M. and is equal to one P(U)= 1 .
4. The probability of a null or improbable event P(φ) is
= 0 zero.
5. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, thenP(A∪ B)= P(A)+ P(B) , otherwise
P(A∪ B)= P(A)+ P(B)− P(A∩ B)
6. Events A and A are mutually exclusive, and the following must P(A∪beAC)met
= P(A)+ P(AC) = 1
P(A)= 1 − P(A) While if we have
C
P(A)= 1 − P(A) indicates the probability of non-occurrence of the
C

event A.

Proposed Exercises
1. A box contains new and old screws. Three screws are randomly drawn. Determine the
sample space and the event of extracting at least two old screws.

2. What is the probability of getting an even number when rolling a die? 1/2

3. A couple plans to have three children. What is the probability that all three are of the same gender?
sex?1/4.

4. A certain population of 1,500 inhabitants was classified according to their nationality, the result was:

Nationality Quantity
Paraguayan 950
Spanish 200
Italian 300
French 50

A resident is chosen at random, calculate the probability

Paraguayan or French result
b) Result Spanish or Italian
Italian or Paraguayan result
French or Spanish results

5. A disk has a white side and a blue side. If the disk were tossed three times, what is the
probability that the blue face will be drawn at least once? 7/8.

6. A ball is removed from a urn that contains colored balls. It is known that the probability of that
the probability of drawing a red ball is 5/17. Calculate the probability of drawing a ball that is not red.
Unit 5: Probabilities Prof. María Raquel Martínez

8. The employees of a certain company have chosen five of them to represent them in the Union.
Here are the profiles of those five people:

Sex Age
Man 30
2. Man 32
3. Woman 45
4. Woman 20
5. Man 40
This group decides to choose a representative by drawing a name from the hat. What is the probability of
Should the representative be a woman or be over 35 years old?

9. In a company, the probability that a randomly selected employee is older than 30 years is
0.55. What is the probability that a randomly selected employee is 30 years old or younger?

Rules of Addition
Mutually Exclusive Events: If two events A and B are Mutually Exclusive.∩ B) =φ

Example 1:
Suppose that a bag contains 10 spheres marked 1, 2, ..., 10. Let A be the event of drawing a
sphere marked with 3 or less and B the event of drawing a sphere marked with 6 or more.
3 5 4
P(A∪ B)= P(A)+ P(B)= + =
10 10 5
Example 2:
Let A be the event that you attend a state university and B the event that you attend a
private university. Consider that you will not attend both simultaneously. If the probability that you will attend
the probability of attending a public university is 0.4 and a private university is 0.25, then the probability of attending
whether to a state university or a private university is

P(A∪ B)= P(A)+ P(B)= 0.40+ 0.25= 0.65 and the probability that I do not attend any is
C C C
P(A ∩ B ) = P(A∪ B) = 1 − P(A∪ B)=1 − (0,40+ 0.25= 0.35

Non-Mutually Exclusive Events: P(A∪ B)= P(A)+ P(B)− P(A∩ B)

Example 1:
Given 10 spheres as specified in the previous example. Let A be the event of drawing a sphere.
marked with an even number, and B the event of extracting a sphere marked with 5 or less.
The probability that A or B occurs is 1 1 2 4
P(A∪ B)= P(A)+ P(B)− P(A∩ B)= + − =
2 2 10 5
The probability of A∩ B = 2/10 because there are two spheres marked 2 and 4, they belong to both.
events.

Example 2:
Let's assume that 80% of North Americans who vacation in Europe visit Paris; that the
70% visit Berlin and 60% visit Paris and Berlin. Find the probability that a North American
on vacation in Europe
a) Visit Berlin or Paris
b) Visit only one of these cities
c) I did not visit any of these cities.

Solution
We define the events:
The North American visits Paris P(A) = 0.8
the North American team visits Berlin P(B) = 0,7
A∩ The American visits Paris and Berlin P(A∩ B) = 0.6

a) P(A∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩ B )

0.8 + 0.7 - 0.6
= 0.9
b) P(A∩ BC) ∪ P(AC∩ B) = P(A∩ BC) + P (AC∩ B) =
= [ P(A) - P(A∩ B )]+[P(B) – P(A∩ B)]
Unit 5: Probabilities Prof. María Raquel Martínez

Proposed Exercises
In the experiment of tossing three coins, it is considered that the eight possible outcomes are
equiprobable. If A denotes the event of two heads occurring and B denotes the event of three occurring
Hey, what is the probability that either A or B occurs? Answer: ½.

In the dice-throwing experiment, consider that the 36 possible outcomes are equally probable.
Denótese con A al evento de que ocurran cuatro o menos puntos y B al evento de que ocurran 10 ó
more points. Are A and B mutually exclusive? Obtain the probability that A or B occurs.
Answer: If A and B are M. Ex. P(A∪ B)=12/36

In a certain city, 40% of the population has brown hair; 20% has black eyes and 5%
she has black eyes and brown hair. A person is chosen at random, find the probability of
what
a) Have brown hair or black eyes. R: 0.55
b) Have only brown hair. R: 0.35
c) Do not have brown hair or black eyes. R:0.45

30% of the inhabitants of a large city watch the morning television news; 40
% watches the night news and 10% watch both news broadcasts. A person is chosen at random from
this city; find the probability that:
a. Watch the morning or evening news. R:0.6
b. Neither of the two was present. R: 0.4
c. Attend only the morning one or only the night one. R: 0.5

Mr. González earned $5,000 last summer and is considering spending the money on one of three things:
a new car, a vacation, or a new set of furniture for your living room. The odds
whether I bought a new car, took a vacation, or bought furniture are, respectively, 0.30,
0.25 and 0.33. What is the probability of there being one of these three things? What is the probability
What if I forgot these three probabilities and used the money for something else? Answer: 0.88 and 0.12.

Multiplication Rule
Independent Events: Two events are independent if they have no relation to each other.
between themselves; that is, if the occurrence of one does not influence the occurrence of the other, in case
The opposite is called a dependent event.
• If A and B are independent then: P(A∩ B) = P(A). P(B)
• If A and B are dependent events, then: P(A∩ B) = P(A). P(B/A)

Example 1:
Two partners in a retirement fund entity are 37 and 48 years old, respectively. If the probability
the probability that a 37-year-old person will live at least 20 more years is 0.55 and the probability that a
A 48-year-old person living for 20 more years has a probability of 0.45. Find the probability that within 20
years
The 37-year-old lives and the 48-year-old dies.
Both are alive in 20 years.
The 48-year-old lives and the 37-year-old does not.

Solution
We define the events:
A 37-year-old living person ⇒ P(A) = 0,55 B: a 48-year-old person alive⇒ P(B) = 0,45
ACa 37-year-old person dies⇒ P(A) = 0,45 BCa 48-year-old person dies⇒P(B) = 0,55

The 37-year-old lives and the 48-year-old dies:

P(A∩ BC= 0.55 . 0.55 = 0.3025→ 0.3025 * 100 = 30.25%

Both are alive in 20 years.

P(A∩ B) = 0.55 . 0.45 = 0.2475→ 0.2475 * 100 = 24.75%

The 48-year-old lives and the 37-year-old does not.

C
P(B∩ A 0.45 * 0.45 = 0.2025→ 0.2025 * 100 = 20.25%
Unit 5: Probabilities Prof. María Raquel Martínez

A the left-handed person P(A) = 0,2

B the person is addicted to alcohol P(B) = 0,6
A∩ B: the left-handed person and is addicted to alcohol P(A∩ B) = 0.06

Applying the Multiplication rule; we have P(A∩ B) = P(A). P(B) = 0.2 x 0.6 = 0.06.

Proposed Exercises
1. A box contains ten spheres, 5 of them are white, 3 red, and 2 black. One is selected.
randomly a sphere without replacement.
a. What is the probability of drawing two white balls one after the other?
b. What is the probability of drawing a red sphere and then a black one?
c. What is the probability of drawing three red balls, one after the other?
d. What is the probability of extracting a black sphere, then a red one, and finally a white one?
2. Four balanced coins are thrown. What is the probability of obtaining
four stamps.
Four faces.
c) One face and three stamps
The probability that a 4th-grade boy advances to the next grade is ¾ and the probability of a girl from the
The same grade pass is 3/5. Find the probability that:
Both pass to the next grade
Only the child can pass
Only the girl passed.
pass at least one
4. If the probability of finding a defective piece in a specific batch is 0.2. What is the
probability of extracting two pieces from the lot and
Both are defective.
Both are good
c) The first is good and the second is defective
d) The first one is defective and the second one is good
5. Find the probabilities of boys and girls in families with three children, assuming equal probabilities.
as a boy or girl.
6. In an office there are three typists, and each one has a probability of 0.20 of being absent. If
The events that are absent are independent. What is the probability that the three
Are typists absent on the same day?
7. Two balanced dice are thrown, what is the probability that an even number appears?
points on the first roll and an odd number of points on the second? Answer: 1/4
8. Mr. Huerta and his wife are 55 and 50 years old, respectively. If the probability that a
A 55-year-old man living at least another 15 years has a probability of 0.70.
The probability that a 50-year-old woman will live at least another 15 years is 0.85. What is the probability that
Will both Mr. Huerta and his wife still be alive in 15 years? (Consider that the
the lifespans of the husband and wife are independent.
9. Consider that the probability of tossing a coin and it landing face up is
0.6. If a coin is tossed three times, what is the probability of obtaining
a) Only stamps. Answer: 0.064
b) When more than two faces. Answer: 0.784
c) At least two faces. Answer: 0.648
d) At least two stamps? Answer: 0.352
10. Two independent indicators have been installed for emergency signaling.
The probability that the indicator activates during the breakdown is equal to 0.95 for the first and 0.9.
for the second. Find the following probabilities that during a breakdown:
a) Activate a single indicator
b) Act on at least one indicator

Conditional Probability
In many cases, the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event is studied in relation to the occurrence of another.
event, then it is said that the initial event depends on this last event.
Conditional probability is the probability that event B occurs, given the condition that the
Event A has already occurred, and it is represented as P(B|A), that is to say:

P(A∩ B
P(B/A)=
P(A)
Unit 5: Probabilities Prof. María Raquel Martínez

2. That she accepts liquid or powdered detergent for washing her clothes.

Solution
We define the events:
A accept the Liquid Soaps P(A) = 0.50
B accept the powdered soaps P(B) = 0,35
A∩ B: accepts Liquid and Powder Soaps P(A∩ B) = 0.25

If you accept powdered soap, you also accept liquid soap.

P(A / B) = P ( A ∩ B ) = 0.25 = 0.7143 → 0.7143× 100 = 71.43%
P(B) 0.35
2. That it accepts liquid or powder soap for washing its clothes.
P(A∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)− P(A∩ B) = 0.50 + 0.35 - 0.25 = 0.60 → 0.60× 100 = 60%

Example 2
50% of the university students have classes in the morning; 30% have classes in the afternoon and
20% have classes in the morning and in the afternoon. A student is chosen at random. Calculate the probability.
of what
a) Do you have classes in the afternoon, since you have classes in the afternoon?
b) Have classes in the morning, since you have classes in the afternoon.
Solution
The events must be defined:
The student has classes in the morning. P(A) = 0,5
The student has classes in the afternoon. P(B) = 0,3
A∩ The student has classes in the morning and in the afternoon. P(A∩ B)= 0,2

a) P(A∩ B) 0.2 b) P(A∩ B) 0.2 2

P(B/A)= = = 0.4 P(A/B)= = = = 0.67
P(A) 0.5 P(B) 0.3 3
Example 3
In a certain group of high school students consisting of 60 women and 40 men, it is observed that 24
of these, he wears glasses, just like 16 women. A student is chosen at random; find the probability of
what:
a) she is a woman, since she wears glasses b) use glasses, since he is a man.

Solution
The events must be defined:
The chosen person is a woman. The chosen person wears glasses.
With the data we form a table:
Sex Use Glasses Total
Yes (B) NoC)
Male (AC) 24 16 40
Female (A) 16 44 60
Total 40 60 100
P(A∩ B) 16
a) P(A/B)= = = 0.4 b) P(B/A)= P(A∩ B) 24
= = 0.3
P(B) 40 P(A) 40
Proposed Exercises
80% of the population is brown-skinned and 70% has dark eyes. Calculate the probability of not being brown-skinned.
o tener los ojos claros. Calcula la probabilidad de ser moreno y tener los ojos claros

2. A class consists of six girls and ten boys. If a committee of three is chosen at random, find the
probabilidad de: a) seleccionar tres niños. Rta: 0,214 b) select exactly two children and one
girl. Response: 0.482 c) seleccionar exactamente dos niñas y un niño. Rta: 0,268 d) seleccionar tres
girls. Response: 0.0357

3. A study on 200 cars from a certain company revealed that in one month 80 of the
cars did not need any repair, 60 cars needed a repair, 40
They needed two repairs and the rest three or more repairs. What is the probability that in
Unit 5: Probabilities Prof. María Raquel Martínez

4. Let A and B be two independent events, such that the probability of them occurring simultaneously is
of 1/6 and the probability that neither occurs is 1/3. Find P(A) and P(B) determined from
unique way?
The probability of rain on October 12 is 0.1; the probability of thunder is 0.05 and the probability of rain and thunder is
0.03. What is the probability that it will rain or thunder on a day?

A box contains two spheres, of which five are white, three are red, and two are black. One is extracted.
randomly a sphere without replacement. What is the probability of extracting:
a) Two white spheres, one after the other,
b) A red sphere and then a black sphere
c) Three red spheres one after another,
d) A black sphere, then a red sphere and finally a white one?

7. In a drawer, there are 16 socks. Eight are brown, six are green, and two are yellow. Two are drawn out.
socks one after the other without replacement. What is the probability that both socks
are they the same color?

8. A carton contains 20 eggs, five of which are spoiled. If they are randomly selected
Three eggs without replacement, what is the probability that all three are spoiled?

9. A car salesman has just received a shipment of 8 new cars, 5 of them

which are compact and 3 luxury models. If 4 cars are sold randomly, obtain the
probability that two of each model have been sold?

10. A distributor receives a shipment of 24 television sets, of which 6 are defective. The
Distributor selects 4 devices from the shipment to put on display. Obtain the probability.
from what
a) 2 out of 4 devices are defective. Answer: 0.216
b) There should be no more than 2 defective ones in the 4 devices. Answer: 0.9647

11. The owner of a recreational field has received reports that the probability of the
the probability that summer will be hot is 0.70. If summer is hot, then the
probabilidad de que gane más de sus beneficios normales de 0,90. ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que
Is there a hot summer and that I make a profit above normal? Answer: 0.63

12. In a certain large company, 80% of the employees are white (B) and 20% are not (B'). Of the
whites, 20% have postgraduate education (P), 50% have university education (U), and 30%
They have education up to high school (H). Of those who are not white, 30% have education of
postgraduate, 50% have university education and 20% have education up to high school. Of the
employees of the company one is selected at random, what is the probability that the
employee
a) not be white and have a postgraduate education.
b) Have only education up to high school. Use the tree diagram to show the
answers.

13. Suppose that in a dark room there are six white boxes, each containing three spheres.
green and five yellow ones, and two black boxes, each containing two green spheres and four
yellows If you entered the room and randomly selected a box and then took
from her a sphere, what is the probability that she selected a green sphere? Use a
tree diagram to show the response.

14. In a charity dining hall, a social worker gathers the following data. From the people
Those who go to the dining hall, 59% are men, 32% are alcoholics, and 21% are alcoholic men.
What is the probability that a male diner, chosen at random, is an alcoholic?

15. According to a study, a family owns two cars if their annual income
Those over $35,000 is 0.75. Of the interviewed housewives, 60% had income.
over $35,000 annually and 52% had two cars. What is the probability that a
Does the family have two cars and an annual income greater than $35,000?

16. During a study on traffic accidents, the Highway Safety Council found
Unit 5: Probabilities Prof. María Raquel Martínez

17. There is a probabilistic table about the sex and marital status of the employees of an institution.
Marital Status Women (W) Men (M) Total
Married (C) 0.42 0.18 0.60
Singles (S) 0.28 0.12 0.40
Total 0.70 0.30 1.00
Obtain:
a. P(C/M), P(C/H), y P(C)
b. P(M/C), P(M/S) y P(M)
c. P(S/H), P(S/M) y P(S)
d. P(H/C), P(H/S) y P(H)

18. A supermarket has been the victim of many thieves over the past month, but due to the
increase in security personnel, 250 thieves have been apprehended. The sex was registered of
each offender and whether it was their first theft or if they had been caught before. The data is
summary in the following table.

Sex 1st. Reincidence Total

Apprehension
Man 60 70 130
Woman 44 76 120
Total 104 146
Assuming that an apprehended offender is chosen at random, find:
a) The probability that this is a man.
b) The probability that it is the first apprehension of the offender, given that he is a man.
c) The probability that the thief is a woman, given that he is a repeat offender.
d) The probability that the thief is a woman, given that it is their first arrest.
e) The probability that the thief is both a man and a repeat offender.

Bayes' Theorem
It is a technique that allows obtaining the conditional probability of an event when due to the effect it
tries to determine the probability of the cause; tries to answer questions such as: If event A
It happened, what is the probability that it was generated by B?1?, which by B2?, etc.
P(A∩ Bk) P(A/Bk).P(Bk)
P(Bk/A)= =
P(A) P(A|B)1 * P(B)+
1 P(A/B2 ).P(B2) + ......+ P(A/Bn).P(Bn1 )
Example 1:
In a screw factory, machines A, B, and C manufacture 20%, 30%, and 50% of the total production.
respectively. Of what they produce, 2, 3, 5% respectively are defective screws. With the
total production is made in a single batch and a screw is extracted; find the probability that:
a) be defective.
We define the events
A the screw is defective
B1 the screw comes from machine A P(A | B10.02 P(B1= 0.2
B2 the screw comes from machine B P(A | B20.03 P(B20.3
B3 the screw comes from machine C P(A | B3= 0.05 P(B3= 0.5

We apply the law of total probability:

P(A) = P(A/B1) P(B1) + P(A/B2).(B2) + P(A/B3).P(B30.2 = (0.02) 0.2 + (0.03) 0.3 + (0.05) 0.5 = 0.038

This means that there is a 3.8% chance that the screw is defective.

b) The screw comes from machine C, as it is defective.

P(A∩ B3) (0.05).(0.5) 0.025
P(B3/A)= = = = 0.66
P(A) (0.02).(0.2)+ (0,03).(0,3) + (0.05).(0.5) 0.038

Proposed Exercises
Urn A has 3 red and 5 white; urn B has 2 red and 1 white; urn C has 2 red balls and 3 white.
A urn is chosen at random and a ball is drawn. It is requested to calculate the probability that the ball is red.
that comes from box A.

2. In a factory, three machines 1, 2, and 3 are used for the production of screws, machine 1
Unit 5: Probabilities Prof. María Raquel Martínez

3. In a company, of the total number of workers, it is known that 50% are professional technicians, 30% are
office workers and 20% service personnel. In addition, it is noted that 8% of the professionals, 9% of the
clerks and 10% of the service staff are "provincials". Let's assume that a selection is made of a
random worker and turns out to be from the province. Find the probability that the worker is a technician.
professional.

In a publishing company, 25% of the workers and 10% of the female workers have
salaries higher than $300. Furthermore, 60% of the workers are women. If selected at random
a worker earns more than $300 per month. What is the probability that the chosen worker
sea woman?