Lesson: Probability
Introduction
Probability is the branch of mathematics that deals with chance or likelihood of an event
happening.
It helps us answer questions like:
What is the chance of getting heads when flipping a coin?
What is the probability of drawing a red card from a deck?
What is the chance that it will rain tomorrow?
Probability is used in many fields such as statistics, science, business, insurance, and everyday
decision-making.
1. Basic Concepts in Probability
Experiment
An experiment is any process that leads to a result.
Examples: flipping a coin, rolling a die, drawing a card.
Sample Space (S)
The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes.
Examples:
Coin flip: {H, T}
Rolling a die: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Event (E)
An event is a specific outcome or group of outcomes that we are interested in.
Examples:
Getting heads (coin): {H}
Rolling an even number: {2, 4, 6}
2. Probability Formula
If all outcomes are equally likely:
[
P(E) = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of outcomes}}
]
Probability values range from 0 to 1.
0 → Impossible event
1 → Certain event
Values in between → Possible with varying likelihood
3. Examples of Basic Probability
Example 1: Coin Toss
Find the probability of getting Heads.
[
P(H) = \frac{1}{2}
]
Example 2: Rolling a Die
Find the probability of rolling a 3.
[
P(3) = \frac{1}{6}
]
Example 3: Rolling an Even Number
Event: {2, 4, 6}
[
P(\text{even}) = \frac{3}{6} = \frac{1}{2}
]
Example 4: Drawing a Red Card from a Deck
A standard deck has 52 cards.
There are 26 red cards.
[
P(\text{red}) = \frac{26}{52} = \frac{1}{2}
]
4. Types of Events
1. Independent Events
Events that do NOT affect each other.
Examples:
Tossing two coins
Rolling a die and flipping a coin
Formula:
[
P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \cdot P(B)
]
Example:
Flip a coin and roll a die.
Find the probability of Heads and 4.
[
P(H) = \frac{1}{2},; P(4) = \frac{1}{6}
]
[
P(H \text{ and } 4) = \frac{1}{2} \cdot \frac{1}{6} = \frac{1}{12}
]
2. Dependent Events
Events where the outcome of one affects the other.
Example:
Drawing two cards without replacement.
Example:
Find the probability of drawing 2 aces in a row.
First draw:
[
P(A_1) = \frac{4}{52}
]
Second draw (1 ace removed):
[
P(A_2) = \frac{3}{51}
]
Combined probability:
[
P = \frac{4}{52} \cdot \frac{3}{51} = \frac{12}{2652} = \frac{1}{221}
]
5. Addition Rule
Mutually Exclusive Events
Cannot happen at the same time.
Example: rolling a 2 or a 5.
[
P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B)
]
Example:
Rolling a 2 or 3 on a die:
[
P = \frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{6} = \frac{2}{6} = \frac{1}{3}
]
Not Mutually Exclusive
Events can happen at the same time.
Example: drawing a card that is a red queen.
[
P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \text{ and } B)
]
Example:
From a deck, find the probability that a card is red OR a king.
Red cards = 26
Kings = 4
Red kings = 2
[
P = \frac{26}{52} + \frac{4}{52} - \frac{2}{52}
]
[
P = \frac{28}{52} = \frac{7}{13}
]
6. Complement Rule
The probability that event A does not happen:
[
P(A') = 1 - P(A)
]
Example:
Probability of not rolling a 6:
[
P(6) = \frac{1}{6}
]
[
P(\text{not 6}) = 1 - \frac{1}{6} = \frac{5}{6}
]
7. More Examples
Example 1:
A bag has 5 red, 3 blue, 2 green balls.
Find the probability of picking a blue ball.
[
P = \frac{3}{10}
]
Example 2:
A student guesses on a 4-choice multiple-choice question.
Probability of guessing correctly:
[
P = \frac{1}{4}
]
Example 3:
A number is chosen randomly from 1–20.
Find the probability that it is a multiple of 3.
Multiples: 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18 → 6 numbers
[
P = \frac{6}{20} = \frac{3}{10}
]