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Economic and Technical Analysis Report

The document provides a daily economic report and market outlook for May 29th, 2012. It summarizes economic news from the previous day in the Eurozone and provides key economic data and events scheduled for release in major economies. Charts of major currency pairs and indexes are included with technical analysis identifying near-term price targets and support/resistance levels.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
11 views7 pages

Economic and Technical Analysis Report

The document provides a daily economic report and market outlook for May 29th, 2012. It summarizes economic news from the previous day in the Eurozone and provides key economic data and events scheduled for release in major economies. Charts of major currency pairs and indexes are included with technical analysis identifying near-term price targets and support/resistance levels.

Uploaded by

api-145402281
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Daily Report

Tuesday 29th May 2012

ECONOMIC NEWS
Yesterdays Events
Euro-zone: The Euro-zone sentiment continued to be negative yesterday and the risk-averse
sentiment resumed in the yesterdays trading session. The financial crisis in Spain intensified. In
Greece, four largest banks got 18B euros in recapitalization funds. German Schatz yields hit record
lows (0.025%). The Spanish 10-yr bonds yielded 6.5% yesterday. The Italian 2-yr bond auction saw
the highest borrowing costs since December 2011.
DJIA 12454.83, EURUSD 1.2534, S&P500 1317.82, FTSE 100 5356.34, Oil (WTI) 91.19,
Gold 1575.80

Todays Key Events


Japan : Retail Sales (came at 5.8% vs 6.2% expected), Unemployment Rate (came at 4.6% vs 4.5%
expected)
Euro-Zone: German CPI m/m, German Import Prices m/m
UK: CBI Realized Sales
US: S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, CB Consumer Confidence

Todays Calendar

Date Time
05/29/2012 00:30

Country
JN

Event
Jobless Rate

Month
APR

--

Survey

Actual
--

Prior
4.50%

05/29/2012 00:30

JN

Job-To-Applicant Ratio

APR

--

--

0.76

05/29/2012 00:30

JN

Overall Hhold Spending (YoY)

APR

--

--

3.40%

05/29/2012 00:50

JN

Retail Trade YoY

APR

--

--

10.30%

05/29/2012 00:50

JN

Retail Trade MoM SA

APR

--

--

-1.20%

05/29/2012 00:50

JN

Large Retailers' Sales

APR

--

--

5.00%

05/29/2012 02:00

AU

HIA New Home Sales (MoM)

APR

--

--

-9.40%

05/29/2012 06:00

JN

Small Business Confidence

MAY

--

--

47.6

05/29/2012 08:00

GE

CPI - Saxony (MoM)

MAY

--

--

0.10%

05/29/2012 08:00

GE

CPI - Saxony (YoY)

MAY

--

--

2.00%

05/29/2012 09:00

GE

CPI - Brandenburg (MoM)

MAY

--

--

0.20%

05/29/2012 09:00

GE

CPI - Brandenburg (YoY)

MAY

--

--

2.10%

05/29/2012 09:00

GE

CPI - Hesse (MoM)

MAY

--

--

0.20%

05/29/2012 09:00

GE

CPI - Hesse (YoY)

MAY

--

--

1.90%

05/29/2012 11:00

UK

CBI Reported Sales

MAY

--

--

-6

05/29/2012 11:00

GE

CPI - Bavaria (MoM)

MAY

--

--

0.30%

05/29/2012 11:00

GE

CPI - Bavaria (YoY)

MAY

--

--

2.20%

05/29/2012 13:00

GE

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

MAY P

--

--

0.20%

05/29/2012 13:00

GE

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

MAY P

--

--

2.10%

05/29/2012 13:00

GE

CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM)

MAY P

--

--

0.10%

05/29/2012 13:00

GE

CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY)

MAY P

--

--

2.20%

05/29/2012 14:00

US

S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA

MAR

--

--

0.15%

05/29/2012 14:00

US

S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY

MAR

--

--

-3.49%

05/29/2012 14:00

US

S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YOY%

1Q

--

--

-4.03%

05/29/2012 14:00

US

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind

MAR

--

--

134.2

05/29/2012 14:00

US

S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI

1Q

--

--

125.67

05/29/2012 15:00

US

Consumer Confidence

MAY

--

--

69.2

05/29/2012 15:30

US

Dallas Fed Manf. Activity

MAY

--

--

-3.4

05/29/2012

GE

CPI - Baden Wuerttemberg


(MoM)

MAY

--

--

-0.20%

05/29/2012

GE

CPI - Baden Wuerttemberg (YoY)

MAY

--

--

1.90%

05/29/2012

GE

CPI - North Rhine-West. (MoM)

MAY

--

--

0.20%

05/29/2012

GE

CPI - North Rhine-West. (YoY)

MAY

--

--

1.70%

Bloomberg

Daily Report

Tuesday 29th May 2012

SP500

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

If we see a move to the up side then the first target is the 1329.40 area. If we see a move to the down
side then the first target is the 1306.40 area.

Daily Pivot Points


R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3

1334.53
1331.37
1325.53
1322.37
1316.53
1313.37
1307.53

Daily Report

Tuesday 29th May 2012

EURUSD

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

If we see a move to the up side then the first target is the 1.2610 area. If we see a continuation to the
downside then the first target is the 1.2500 area.

Daily Pivot Points


R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3

1.2699
1.2662
1.2591
1.2554
1.2483
1.2446
1.2375

Tuesday 29th May 2012

Daily Report

GBPUSD

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

Further downside towards the GBP is expected with prices once breaking the 1.5628 level, a push
towards the next support level of 1.55383 is expected.

Daily Pivot Points


R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3

1.57529
1.57345
1.56999
1.56815
1.56469
1.56285
1.55939

Tuesday 29th May 2012

Daily Report

USDJPY

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

Dollar yen is taking support of 79.20 levels. Break of 79.20 can take this pair towards the next
levels of 78.35. Close above79.65 levels will take this pair towards 80.60 levels.

Daily Pivot Points


R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3

80.001
79.854
79.6217
79.4743
79.2417
79.0943
78.8617

Tuesday 29th May 2012

Daily Report

USDCHF

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

Possible move towards the 9.7000 handle is expected with further increase in the US-Dollar

Daily Pivot Points


R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3

0.96970
0.96491
0.96236
0.95757
0.95502
0.95263
0.94768

Common questions

Powered by AI

Regional CPI data in Germany showed variations, with states like Bavaria reporting a MoM increase of 0.30% and a YoY of 2.20%, while others like Baden Wuerttemberg showed a MoM decrease of -0.20%. This variation reflected differing inflationary pressures within the country amidst broader Euro-zone economic concerns .

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity index of -3.4 implied contraction in the manufacturing sector. This negative reading could indicate weaker economic activity and potentially slow future economic growth in the region .

The financial crisis in Spain intensified, which contributed to a negative sentiment in the Euro-zone. The risk-averse sentiment resumed during that day's trading session, emphasizing the heightened economic and financial instability within the region .

The technical overview suggested that USD/JPY was taking support at the 79.20 level. A break below could lead the pair towards 78.35, whereas a close above 79.65 may target the 80.60 level, providing clear entry and exit points for traders based on support/resistance levels .

Recapitalizing Greek banks with 18 billion euros was significant because it aimed to stabilize the Greek banking system amidst the ongoing financial crisis, thus potentially preventing further financial contagion in the Euro-zone .

The record low yields of German Schatz bonds (0.025%) indicate that investors were seeking safe-haven assets, reflecting a risk-averse market sentiment amidst uncertainty in the Euro-zone, particularly due to financial problems in Spain and Greece .

The economic condition in Italy was suggested to be deteriorating as evidenced by the Italian 2-year bond auction which saw the highest borrowing costs since December 2011 .

Technical analysis indicated a further downside for EUR/USD towards support at the 1.5628 level. Breaking this level could push the currency pair towards the next support at 1.55383, suggesting a potential short selling opportunity once the initial support is breached .

The US Consumer Confidence index value of 69.2 for May 2012 was significant as it provided insights into the economic outlook and consumer's willingness to spend, which are crucial for economic growth .

Market conditions indicated a preference for safe-haven assets through record low German Schatz yields at 0.025% and increased yields on riskier bonds such as Spanish and Italian bonds, evidencing a flight to safety by investors amid Euro-zone financial instability .

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