Module 3-1:
Part II: From Randomness to Probability
By the end of this section you should be able to define and/or understand:
Sample space,
Events,
Probability for some events,
Complement of an event,
The union of two events,
The intersection of two events,
Mutually exclusive or disjoint events,
Some probability rules.
A phenomenon is random if we know what outcomes could happen, but not
which particular values will happen.
The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1 that reports the
likelihood of an event’s occurrence. The probability is usually based on
long-run relative frequency.
The probability of entire sample must be 1. This is called total probability
rule.
Some probability rules for the complement of an event and for intersection
and union of events are discussed in this section.
Definition:
The complement of an event A consists of all outcomes in the sample
space that are not in A. It is denoted by AC.
In general, we have
P( A) P ( AC ) 1
Complement Probability Rule: For any events A, we have:
P ( AC ) 1 P ( A) P ( A) 1 P ( AC )
Example 1: Find the complement of the event A in the following probability
experiments:
a) Suppose you roll a die. Let A = Even numbers.
b) Toss a coin twice. Let A = At least one head. Find complement of A.
c) Toss a coin ten times. Let A = At least one head.
Definition:
Given two events A and B, the event that both A and B occur is called the
intersection of A and B, and is denoted by A∩B.
In general, we have
P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B )
In general, two events A and B are independent if and only if
P( A B ) P ( A) P ( B )
Example 2: In rolling a die, what is probability that you get an even and
prime number?
S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
A Even numbers 2, 4, 6
A B {2}
B Prime numbers 2,3, 5
Definition:
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive or disjoint when they
cannot occur simultaneously.
In general, Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if and only if
P( A B) 0
Example 3: In rolling a die, are even and odd events mutually exclusive?
S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
A Even numbers 2, 4, 6
A B {}
B Odd numbers 1,3,5
Definition:
Given two events A and B, the event that either A or B occur (or both) is
called the union of the two events and is denoted by A∪ B.
In general, we have
P ( A B ) P( A) P ( B )
General addition Rule: For any two events A and B, we have:
P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A B )
P( A B) P( A) P( B) if and only if events A and B are disjoint
Example 4: A fair die is thrown. What is probability that you get an even or
prime number?
S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
A Even numbers 2, 4, 6
B Prime numbers 2,3,5
A B {2, 4, 6} {2,3,5}
{2, 4, 6, 2,3,5} {2,3, 4, 5, 6}
Example 5: Suppose we roll a die twice. Let A = Sum of two numbers is
seven, and B = First die is 2. Find the following probabilities:
P ( AC ), P ( B C ),
P ( A B ), P ( A B ),
P ( A B )C and P ( A B )C
Are A and B disjoint? Are A and B independent?
Solution:
A = sum is 7 = {(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)}
B = First is 2 = {(2,1),(2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)}
A B {(2,5)}
1, 6 , 2, 5 , 3, 4 , 4,3 , 5, 2 , 6,1
A B
2,1 , 2, 2 , (2,3 ), 2, 4 , 2, 5 , 2, 6
1, 6 , 2, 5 , 3, 4 , 4,3 , 5, 2 , 6,1
2,1 , 2, 2 , (2,3), 2, 4 , , 2, 6
Example 6: What is the chance of rolling at least one with two fair
dice?
Solution:
Out of 36 possible outcomes, the 11 colored blue are favorable, so the
chance is 11/36.
Here is another way to get the same result. Define events
A= first die is a B = second die is a .
Then
6 6 1
P ( A) , P ( B ) , P ( A B ) P ({(6, 6)})
36 36 36
Therefore the chance of at least one with two dice is
P ( A or B ) P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A B )
6 6 1 11
36 36 36 36
Let’s look at this problem another way. We know that there are a total of
outcomes when you roll two dice. We also know
that there must be with no . Therefore,
.
Example 7: A teacher found that 85% of the students in her math class had
passed a course in algebra (A), 60% had passed a course in geometry (G),
and 55% had passed both course. Therefore,
P ( A) 0.85, P (G ) 0.60 and P ( A G ) 0.55
(a) Find the probability that a student selected randomly from the math
class has passed at least one of the two courses.
(b) Find the probability that a student selected randomly from the math
class has failed both courses.