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Binomial & Black-Scholes Option Valuation

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
16 views8 pages

Binomial & Black-Scholes Option Valuation

Uploaded by

sharath.menon
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

1.

Binomial Model (Risk Neutral probability approach)


As the name suggested, only two possible price of stock on maturity can take place
 Upper price of Stock (uS)
 Lower price of stock (dU)
Ex: suppose,
Current market price of stock (S) 500
Exercise price (Call Option) 510
Maturity period: 1 year
On maturity
Upper price = 600, probability 0.70
Lower price = 400, probability 0.30
Rf = 10% pa

Solution
When will be exercising CE on maturity when Call option is 510 (when price goes above 510)
Gross payoff
At 600 Exercise 90 x 0.70 = 63
At 400 Lapse 00 x 0.30 = 00
Total 63

 Present value of payoff


Formula for value of option
Expected payoff discounted with Risk-free rate
63/1.10 = 57.27
Or
(Cu x p) + Cd (1-p)
R

(90 x 0.70) + (0 x 0.30)


1.10
= 57.27

Question 1
Current price Rs. 500, exercise price 510, period 1 year, and risk-free rate 10%, option: call option,
price on maturity, upper price 600, and lower price 400. Calculate value of option as per binomial
model (risk neutral probability approach)

Step 1: description of given values


S= 500
R = 1.10
uS = 600/400 = 1.20
dS = 400/500 = 0.80

Step 2: calculation of risk neutral probability


Formula for probability
P = R-d

u-d
= 1.10-0.80
1.20-0.80
0.75

Step 3: Binomial tree

Step 4: calculation of value of option


(Cu x p) + Cd (1-p)
R

(90 x 0.75) + (0 x 0.25)


1.10
= 61.36/-

Question 2:
S = 1000, period 6 months, option: CE, E = 1100, uS = 1300, dS = 900,
Rate:
Case 1. 8% pa compounded semi annually
Case 2. 8% pa compounded annually
Case 3. 8% pa compounded continuously
Calculate value of call option

Solution
Case 1. 8% pa compounded semi annually
Step 1: description of given values
S= 1000
uS = 1300/1000 = 1.30
dS = 900/1000 = 0.90
R = (8 x 6/12) = 4% or 1.04

Step 2: calculation of risk neutral probability


Formula for probability
P = R-d

u-d
= 1.04-0.90
1.30-0.90
0.35

Step 3: Binomial tree


Step 4: calculation of value of option
(Cu x p) + Cd (1-p)
R
(200x 0.35) + (0 x 0.65)
1.04
= 67.31/- (This amount will be given today, if you have to buy CE option)

Case 2. 8% pa compounded annually


Step 1: description of given values
S= 1000
uS = 1300/1000 = 1.30
dS = 900/1000 = 0.90
R = (1.08)6/12 = 1.0392

Step 2: calculation of risk neutral probability


Formula for probability
P = R-d

u-d
= 1.0392-0.90
1.30-0.90
0.348

Step 3: Binomial tree

Step 4: calculation of value of option


(Cu x p) + Cd (1-p)
R

(200x 0.348) + (0 x 0.652)


1.04
= 66.97/- (This amount will be given today, if you have to buy CE option)

Case 3. 8% pa compounded continuously


Step 1: description of given values
S= 1000
uS = 1300/1000 = 1.30
dS = 900/1000 = 0.90
ert = e(0.08 x 6/12) = e 0.04 = 1.04081

Step 2: calculation of risk neutral probability


Formula for probability
rt
P= e - d

u-d
= 1.04081-0.90
1.30-0.90
0.3520

Step 3: Binomial tree

Step 4: calculation of value of option


(Cu x p) + Cd (1-p)
ert

(200x 0.3520) + (0 x 0.648)


1.04081
= 67.64/- (This amount will be given today, if you have to buy CE option)

PUT OPTION
Question 1:
S = 500, period 3 months,
On maturity (after 3 months)
uS = 600
dS = 400
Rate = 12% pa compounded annually
E= 530

Solution:
Step 1: description of given values
S= 500
uS = 600/500 = 1.20
dS = 400/500 = 0.80
R = (1.12) 3/12 = 1.0287

Step 2: calculation of risk neutral probability


Formula for probability
P= R-d
u-d
= 1.0287-0.80
1.20-0.80
0.572

Step 3: Binomial tree

Step 4: calculation of value of PUT Option


(Cu x p) + Cd (1-p)
R

(0x 0.572) + (130 x 0.428)


1.0287
= 54.09/- (This amount will be given today, if you have to buy PE option, not more than)

(c) Black-Scholes Model: The Black-Scholes model is used to calculate a theoretical price of an Option.
The Black-Scholes price is nothing more than the amount an option writer would require as compensation
for writing a call and completely hedging the risk of buying stock. The important point is that the hedger's
view about future stock prices is irrelevant. Thus, while any two investors may strongly disagree on the rate
of return they expect on a stock they will, given agreement to the assumptions of volatility and the risk free
rate, always agree on the fair value of the option on that underlying asset. This key concept underlying the
valuation of all derivatives -- that fact that the price of an option is independent of the risk preferences of
investors -- is called risk-neutral valuation. It means that all derivatives can be valued by assuming that the
return from their underlying assets is the risk free rate.
The model is based on a normal distribution of underlying asset returns.
The following assumptions accompany the model:
1. European Options are considered,
2. No transaction costs,
3. Short term interest rates are known and are constant,
4. Stocks do not pay dividend,
5. Stock price movement is similar to a random walk,
6. Stock returns are normally distributed over a period of time, and
7. The variance of the return is constant over the life of an Option.
The original formula for calculating the theoretical option price (OP) is as follows: (formula)

Write formula

The variables are:


S = current stock price
X = strike price of the option
t = time remaining until expiration, expressed as a percent of a year
r = current continuously compounded risk-free interest rate
v = annual volatility of stock price (the standard deviation of the short-term returns over one year).
ln = natural logarithm
N(x) = standard normal cumulative distribution function
e = the exponential function

Understanding the formula


N(d1) represents the hedge ratio of shares of stock to Options necessary to maintain a fully hedged position.
Consider the Option holder as an investor who has borrowed an equivalent amount of the exercise price at
interest rate r. Xe-rtN(d2)represents this borrowing which is equivalent to the present value of the exercise
price times an adjustment factor of N(d2)
The main advantage of the Black-Scholes model is speed -- it lets you calculate a very large number of
option prices in a very short time.
The Black-Scholes model has one major limitation that it cannot be used to accurately price options with an
American-style exercise as it only calculates the option price at one point of time -- at expiration. It does not
consider the steps along the way where there could be the possibility of early exercise of an American
option.

Illustration 5
(i) The shares of TIC Ltd. are currently priced at ` 415 and call option exercisable in three months’ time has
an exercise rate of ` 400. Risk free interest rate is 5% p.a. and standard deviation (volatility) of share price is
22%. Based on the assumption that TIC Ltd. is not going to declare any dividend over the next three months,
is the option worth buying for ` 25?
(ii) Calculate value of aforesaid call option based on Block Scholes valuation model if the current price is
considered as ` 380.
(iii) What would be the worth of put option if current price is considered Rs. 380.
(iv) If TIC Ltd. share price at present is taken as ` 408 and a dividend of Rs. 10 is expected to be paid in the
two months’ time, then, calculate value of the call option.

Solution
(i) Given: TIC Ltd. Current Price = ` 415
Exercise rate = 400
Risk free interest rate is = 5% p.a.
SD (Volatility) = 22%
Illustration 6
We have been given the following information about XYZ company’s shares and call options:
Current share price = Rs. 165
Option exercise price = Rs. 150
Risk free interest rate = 6%
Time to option expiry = 2 years
Volatility of share price (Standard deviation) = 15%
Calculate value of the option.

Common questions

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The Binomial Model and the Black-Scholes Model differ in several ways. The Binomial Model provides a step-by-step approach that can handle American options and incorporate node adjustments at each time step, giving flexibility over the life of the option. It is based on early exercise valuations along numerous interim points, leading to a more versatile pricing for various conditions. In contrast, the Black-Scholes Model assumes a continuous lognormal price distribution, focusing on European options with only a final date valuation. While Black-Scholes provides analytical simplicity and speed for large calculations, it assumes constant volatility and interest rates, which are inflexible for American options or varying market conditions .

The Black-Scholes model is used to calculate the theoretical price of European-style options. It assumes no dividends, constant short-term interest rates, normally distributed stock returns, and a constant variance of returns. A key limitation is that it cannot accurately price American-style options that could be exercised before expiration. This model only provides the price at expiration without accounting for interim steps. Another limitation is the assumptions about constant volatility and interest rates, which do not hold in real markets. These factors limit the use of Black-Scholes for practical scenarios involving variable conditions .

The principle of no arbitrage is central to both the Binomial and Black-Scholes options pricing models. In the Binomial Model, no-arbitrage ensures that the risk-neutral probabilities are set such that the option's expected payoff is discounted at the risk-free rate back to its current fair value, preventing arbitrage opportunities. The Black-Scholes Model relies on the same principle by assuming a perfectly hedged position to cover the option risk, ensuring the price reflects the equivalent market return of the risk-free rate. Both models depend on creating replicating portfolios that yield no excess risk-free profit, maintaining consistent market pricing without arbitrage opportunities .

The compounding frequency affects the risk-free rate calculation, which in turn impacts the valuation of a call option in the Binomial Model. For instance, the conversion factors for the risk-free rate differ under semi-annual, annual, and continuous compounding. With 8% per annum, compounded semi-annually, the rate is adjusted to 4% for six months. When compounded annually, it is adjusted as (1.08)^(6/12). Under continuous compounding, it is e^(0.08*0.5). These variations affect the risk-neutral probability and ultimately the calculated present value of expected payoff. For example, for a risk-free rate (R) adjusted to 1.04 semi-annually and 1.04081 continuously, the call option prices for the same stock differ slightly: Rs. 67.31 (semi-annually) versus Rs. 67.64 (continuously).

Time to maturity influences both Binomial and Black-Scholes option pricing but in subtly different ways. In the Binomial Model, longer maturity allows for more steps in the binomial tree, capturing potential price movements and early exercise opportunities in a multi-step format, fitting American-style options. Each step reflects time value decay and underlying volatility more fully. The Black-Scholes Model represents time's impact through the square-root formula component; as time to maturity increases, the value of options rises because of increased time value and volatility realization potential. Hence, longer maturity generally increases option prices due to greater uncertainty and potential gains .

The Black-Scholes model has several critical assumptions: European options without early exercise; no transaction costs; constant interest rates; no dividends; normal distribution of stock price movements; and constant volatility. In practice, these assumptions limit the applicability of the model. Most traded options are American-style, offering early exercise opportunities not modeled in Black-Scholes. Transaction costs and dividends are present, affecting actual market prices. Moreover, real-world stock price movements often exhibit volatility clustering and aren't perfectly described by the normal distribution. Therefore, while useful for theoretical calculations and understanding general price dynamics, Black-Scholes requires adjustments or complements to align with market realities .

In the Black-Scholes Model, the standard deviation or volatility of a stock is a critical input that directly impacts option valuation. Volatility signifies the level of uncertainty or risk concerning the extent of changes in a stock's value, and it influences the expected likelihood of the option being profitable at expiration. High volatility increases the value of both calls and puts because it raises the probability of considerable price changes favoring the option expiration payoff. Consequently, investors expect higher compensation for higher uncertainty, resulting in higher option premiums with increased volatility .

Dividends can significantly affect the valuation of call options in the Black-Scholes Model. Expected dividend payments reduce the stock's price on the ex-dividend date, which decreases the expected price of stock underlying the call option. In scenarios where dividends are expected, call options tend to have lower valuations. The Black-Scholes Model, based on non-dividend-paying assumptions, cannot directly incorporate dividends. It requires modifications or the application of alternative methods like adjusting the stock path or using the modified BS for dividends to reflect the dividend impact on call option valuation accurately .

The value of a call option using the Binomial Model can be calculated in several steps. First, identify the given values: the current stock price (S), the exercise price, the upper and lower prices on maturity, and the risk-free rate (Rf). Next, calculate the risk-neutral probability (P) using the formula: P = (Rf - d) / (u - d), where d and u are the down and up factors respectively. For example, with S = 500, uS = 1.20, dS = 0.80, and Rf = 1.10, we have P = (1.10 - 0.80)/(1.20 - 0.80) = 0.75. Then, calculate the expected payoff using (Cu * P + Cd * (1-P)) / Rf, where Cu is the payoff when the stock price increases and Cd is the payoff if it decreases. Finally, discount the expected payoff back to the present value using the risk-free rate. For example, (90 * 0.75) + (0 * 0.25)/1.10 = 61.36. Therefore, the option price is Rs. 61.36 .

Risk-neutral valuation is a fundamental concept in the Black-Scholes Model, which assumes that the future return of the underlying asset is the risk-free rate. Under risk-neutral valuation, the preferences of investors about risk do not affect the option price. This allows the option price to be independent of the actual expected return of the underlying asset, focusing only on the present value of the expected payoff discounted by the risk-free rate. Essentially, the option price reflects the cost of hedging the risk rather than the expected gain from the stock .

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