Population Dynamics - Detailed Notes
1. World Population Growth
- Early history: very slow growth due to famine, disease. - 10,000 years ago: ~5 million. - 1650:
~500 million. - 1800: 1 billion. - 2011: 7 billion. - Growth fastest in developing countries after 1950. -
2023 projected: 8 billion.
2. Population Change
- Birth rate = births/1000 people/year. - Death rate = deaths/1000 people/year. - Natural increase =
BR - DR. - Natural decrease = DR > BR. - Net migration = Immigration - Emigration.
3. Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1: High BR, High DR, Low growth. Stage 2: DR falls, BR high → rapid growth. Stage 3: BR
falls, DR low → slower growth. Stage 4: Low BR & DR → stable. Stage 5: BR < DR → decline.
4. Fertility Factors
- Demographic: high infant mortality → high fertility. - Social: tradition, religion, low female
education. - Economic: children = assets in poor countries, costly in rich ones. - Political:
Pro-natalist (France), Anti-natalist (China).
5. Mortality Factors
- Life expectancy world avg: 72 yrs (2016). - Highest: North America 79 yrs; Lowest: Africa 60 yrs. -
Developed world: deaths mainly from chronic diseases. - Developing world: infectious diseases,
poor healthcare.
6. Demographic Divide
- Declining growth: Russia, Germany, Japan. - Moderate growth: USA, Brazil, India. - High growth:
African & some Asian nations. - Global divide widening between high-growth & low-growth areas.
7. HIV/AIDS Impact
- High prevalence in Southern Africa. - Impacts: labour shortage, higher dependency ratio, poverty
cycle. - Orphans ↑, education ↓, mortality ↑.
8. Case Studies
- Kenya: High growth, fertility 3.9, rapid urbanisation. - Russia: Decline, low fertility, male life
expectancy 66. - Bangladesh: Overpopulated, density 1128/km², frequent floods, poverty. -
Australia: Underpopulated, density 3/km², resource-rich, attracts migrants.
9. Population Policies
- China: One-child policy (1979–2016), reduced growth but ageing & gender imbalance. Relaxed in
2016. - France: Pro-natalist, incentives (benefits, tax relief, childcare). Fertility ~1.9, close to
replacement.
10. Overpopulation vs Underpopulation
- Optimum population: balance of resources & people. - Overpopulation: excess pressure on
resources (Bangladesh). - Underpopulation: too few people to exploit resources fully (Australia).
Mindmap: See attached diagram in ChatGPT conversation for quick revision.