54

Chapter 3

Discrete Random Variables and

Their Probability Distributions

3.1 Basic Definitions

A random variable Y is a real-valued function which assigns a number to each outcome
in the sample space of an experiment. A discrete random variable is a real-valued
function whose range has finite or countably infinite distinct values.

3.2 The Probability Distribution for a Discrete

Random Variable
A probability function for random variable Y , P (Y = y) = p(y), is a function that
assigns probabilities to values of the random variable. A probability distribution for a
discrete random variable is represented by either a table, graph or formula which all
of which include both y and p(y).

Exercise 3.2(The Probability Distribution for a Discrete Random Variable)

1. Probability distribution for seizures. The number of seizures, Y , of a typical
epileptic person in any given year is given by the following probability distribu-
tion.
y 0 2 4 6 8 10
p(y) 0.17 0.21 0.18 0.11 0.16 0.17

(a) The chance a person has 8 epileptic seizures is p(8) = (circle one)
(i) 0.11 (ii) 0.16 (iii) 0.17 (iv) 0.21.
(b) The chance a person has at most 4 seizures is
(i) 0.17 (ii) 0.21 (iii) 0.56 (iv) 0.67.

55
56Chapter 3. Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions (ATTENDANCE 4)

(c) P (Y ≤ 4) = (circle one) (i) 0.17 (ii) 0.21 (iii) 0.56 (iv) 0.67.
(d) p(2) = (circle one) (i) 0.17 (ii) 0.21 (iii) 0.56 (iv) 0.67.
(e) p(2.1) = (circle one) (i) 0 (ii) 0.21 (iii) 0.56 (iv) 0.67.
(f) P (Y > 2.1) = (circle one) (i) 0.21 (ii) 0.38 (iii) 0.56 (iv) 0.62.
P10
(g) y=0 p(y) = P (Y = 0) + P (Y = 2) + · · · + P (Y = 10) =
(i) 0.97 (ii) 0.98 (iii) 0.99 (iv) 1.
(h) Graph of distribution. Consider the graphs in Figure ??. Which of the

P(Y = y) P(Y = y) P(Y = y)

0.20 0.20 0.20

0.15 0.15 0.15

0.10 0.10 0.10

0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10

(a) (b) (c)

Figure 3.1: Probability distribution: seizures

three graphs in Figure ??, describe the probability distribution of the num-
ber of seizures? Choose one or more.
(i) (a) (ii) (b) (iii) (c).
(i) Function of distribution. Which one of the following functions describes
the probability distribution of the number of seizures?
i. Function (a). 
0.17, if y = 0
P (Y = y) =
0.21, if y = 2
ii. Function (b). 
0.18, if y = 4
P (Y = y) =
0.11, if y = 6
iii. Function (c). 

 0.17, if y =0
0.21, if y =2




0.18, if y =4

P (Y = y) =

 0.11, if y =6
0.16, if y =8




0.17, if y = 10

Section 2. The Probability Distribution for a Discrete Random Variable (ATTENDANCE 4)57

2. Flipping a coin. The number of heads, Y , in one flip of a coin, is given by the
following probability function,

p(y) = (0.25)y (0.75)1−y , y = 0, 1.

(a) The chance of flipping 1 head (Y = 1) is

p(1) = (0.25)1 (0.75)1−1 = (i) 0 (ii) 0.25 (iii) 0.50 (iv) 0.75.
(b) This coin is (circle one) (i) fair (ii) unfair.
(c) The chance of flipping no heads (Y = 0) is
p(0) = (0.25)0 (0.75)1−0 = (i) 0 (ii) 0.25 (iii) 0.50 (iv) 0.75.
(d) A “tabular” version of this probability distribution of flipping a coin is
(circle one)
i. Distribution A.
y 0 1
p(y) 0.25 0.75
ii. Distribution B.
y 0 1
p(y) 0.75 0.25
iii. Distribution C.
y 0 1
p(y) 0.50 0.50
(e) The number of different ways of describing a distribution include (choose
one or more) (i) function (ii) table (iii) graph.

3. Rolling a pair of dice: number of fours rolled.

Let Y be the number of 4’s rolled. Assume the dice are fair.
1 20 25 30
(a) P (Y = 2) = P {(4, 4)} = (circle one) (i) 36
(ii) 36
(iii) 36
(iv) 36
.
(b) Since P (Y = 1) = (circle one)
(i) P {(1, 4), (2, 4), (3, 4), (5, 4), (6, 4)}
(ii) P {(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 5), (4, 6)}
(iii) P {(1, 4), (2, 4), (3, 4), (5, 4), (6, 4), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 5), (4, 6)}
1 10 25 30
(c) Then P (Y = 1) = (circle one) (i) 36
(ii) 36
(iii) 36
(iv) 36
.
(d) P (Y = 0) = 1 − P (Y = 1) − P (Y = 2) = (circle one)
11
(i) 36 (ii) 20
36
25
(iii) 36 (iv) 30
36
.
(e) The probability distribution of Y is
y 0 1 2
25 10 1
P (Y = y) 36 36 36

(i) True (ii) False

58Chapter 3. Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions (ATTENDANCE 4)

4. Flipping until a head comes up. A (weighted) coin has a probability of p = 0.7
of coming up heads (and so a probability of q = 1 − p = 0.3 of coming up tails).
Let Y be the number of flips until a head comes up or until a total of 4 flips
are made.

(a) Head may come up on first flip, p(1) = P {H} = (circle one)
(i) 0.3 (ii) 0.7 (iii) 0.3(0.7) (iv) 0.32 (0.7).
(b) Head may come up on second flip, p(2) = P {T H} = (circle one)
(i) 0.3 (ii) 0.7 (iii) 0.3(0.7) (iv) 0.32 (0.7).
(c) p(3) = P {T T H} = (circle one)
(i) 0.3 (ii) 0.7 (iii) 0.3(0.7) (iv) 0.32 (0.7).
(d) p(4) = P {T T T T, T T T H} = 1 − p(1) − p(2) − p(3) =
(i) 0.027 (ii) 0.063 (iii) 0.210 (iv) 0.700.
(e) The probability distribution of Y is
y 1 2 3 4
p(y) 0.700 0.210 0.063 0.027
(i) True (ii) False

5. Sampling red marbles from an urn. Two marbles are taken, one at a time,
without replacement, from an urn which has 6 red and 10 blue marbles. We
win $2 for each red marble chosen and lose $1 for each blue marble chosen. Let
Y be the winnings.

(a) The chance both marbles are red is P {RR} =

6 5
(i) 16 × 15 (ii) 10
16
9
× 15 (iii) 12
16
11
× 15 (iv) 16
16
× 15
15
.
(b) Alternatively,
 
P{RR} = (circle

one)

(circleone) 

6  10  
9  8  
8  11 
2 0 1 2 1 2
(i)   (ii)   (iii)   .

16  
16  
16 
2 3 3
(c) Since the winnings are Y = $4 when both marbles are red,
P (Y = $4) = P {RR} = (circle one)
(i) 0.025 (ii) 0.125 (iii) 0.225 (iv) 0.500.
(d) The chance both marbles are blue is P {BB} = P (Y = −$2) =
6 5
(i) 16 × 15 (ii) 10
16
9
× 15 (iii) 12
16
11
× 15 (iv) 16
16
× 15
15
.
(e) P {RB, BR} = P (Y = $1) = 1 − P {RR} − P {BB} =
(i) 0.025 (ii) 0.125 (iii) 0.225 (iv) 0.500.
(f) The probability distribution of Y is
Section 3. The Expected Value of a Random Variable or a Function of a Random Variable (ATTENDANCE

y -$2 $1 $4
P (Y = y) 0.375 0.500 0.125
(i) True (ii) False

3.3 The Expected Value of a Random Variable or

a Function of a Random Variable
The expected value, E(Y ), of a discrete random variable, Y is given by1
X
E(Y ) = yp(y).
y

The expected value of a function g of the random variable Y , E[g(Y )], is given by
X
E[g(Y )] = g(y)p(y).
y

The variance, V (Y ), is

V (Y ) = σ 2 = E[(Y − µ)2 ] = E(Y 2 ) − [E(Y )]2 = E(Y 2 ) − µ2

with associated standard deviation, σ. Some properties are

X
E(c) = c p(y) = c,
y
E[cg(Y )] = cE[g(Y )],
E[g1 (Y ) + g2 (Y ) + · · · + gk (Y )] = E[g1 (Y )] + E[g2 (Y )] + · · · + E[gk (Y )]

where c is a constant (number, not a random variable).

Exercise 3.3 (The Expected Value of a Random Variable or a Function of

a Random Variable)

1. Expected value: seizures. The probability function for the number of seizures,
Y , of a typical epileptic person in any given year is given in the following table.

y 0 2 4 6 8 10
p(y) 0.17 0.21 0.18 0.11 0.16 0.17
1
The expected value is also called the mean, µ; in other words, E(Y ) = µ. It is, roughly, a
weighted average of the probability distribution.
60Chapter 3. Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions (ATTENDANCE 4)

(a) Calculating the expected value. The expected value (mean) number of
seizures is given by2
X
E(Y ) = yp(y) = 0(0.17)+2(0.21)+4(0.18)+6(0.11)+8(0.16)+10(0.17) =
y

(i) 4.32 (ii) 4.78 (iii) 5.50 (iv) 5.75.

(b) Understanding expected value: seizures.
P(X = x) P(X = x) P(X = x)

0.20 0.20 0.20

0.15 0.15 0.15

0.10 0.10 0.10

0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10

(a) (b) (c)

Figure 3.2: Expected value: fulcrum point of balance

If the expected value is like a fulcrum point which balances the “weight”
of the probability distribution, then the expected value is most likely close
to the point of the fulcrum given in which of the three graphs above?
(i) (a) 9 (ii) (b) 5 (iii) (c) 1.
(c) Expected value is population average, not sample average.
If p(y) is a good representation of population frequency distribution, then
expected value is equal to population mean parameter E(Y ) = µ = 4.78.
(i) True (ii) False

2. Functions of expected value: seizures. The probability mass function for the
number of seizures, Y , of a typical epileptic person in any given year is given
in the following table.

y 0 2 4 6 8 10
p(y) 0.17 0.21 0.18 0.11 0.16 0.17

(a) If the medical costs for each seizure, Y , is $200; in other words, function
g(y) = 200y, the probability distribution for g(y) is:
2
Use your calculator: STAT ENTER; type y, 0, 2, 4, 6 and 8, into L1 and p(y), 0.17, . . . , 0.17,
into L2 ; then STAT CALC ENTER 2nd L1 , L2 ENTER; then read x̄ = 4.78. The x̄ = 4.78 is not the
sample average in this case, but the population average. The calculator has calculated a “weighted”
average using probabilities as weights and, by doing so, weighted average becomes population average
(expected value).
Section 3. The Expected Value of a Random Variable or a Function of a Random Variable (ATTENDANCE

y 0 2 4 6 8 10
g(y) = 200y 200(0) = 0 200(2) = 400 800 1200 1600 2000
p(g(y)) 0.17 0.21 0.18 0.11 0.16 0.17
The expected value (mean) cost of seizures is then given by3
X
E[g(Y )] = E[200Y ] = (200y)p(y) = [0](0.17)+[400](0.21)+· · ·+[2000](0.17) =
y

(i) 432 (ii) 578 (iii) 750 (iv) 956.

Alternatively, since c = 200 is a constant,

E[g(Y )] = E[200Y ] = 200E[Y ] = 200(4.78) =

(i) 432 (ii) 578 (iii) 750 (iv) 956.

(b) If the medical costs for each seizure, Y , is given by function g(y) = y 2,
y 0 2 4 6 8 10
g(y) = y 2 0 =02
4 16 36 64 100
p(g(y)) 0.17 0.21 0.18 0.11 0.16 0.17
The expected value (mean) cost of seizures in this case is given by4
X
E[g(Y )] = E[Y 2 ] = y 2 p(y) = [0](0.17) + [4](0.21) + · · · + [100](0.17) =
y

(i) 34.92 (ii) 57.83 (iii) 75.01 (iv) 94.56.

(c) If g(y) = 200y 2 + y − 5,

E[g(Y )] = E[200Y 2 + Y − 5]
= E[200Y 2 ] + E[Y ] − E[5]
= 200E[Y 2 ] + E[Y ] − E[5]
= 200(34.92) + 4.78 − 5 =

(i) 4320.67 (ii) 5780.11 (iii) 6983.78 (iv) 8480.99.

3. More functions of expected value: flipping until a head comes up. A (weighted)
coin has a probability of p = 0.7 of coming up heads (and so a probability of
1 − p = 0.3 of coming up tails). This coin is flipped until a head comes up or
until a total of 4 flips are made. Let Y be the number of flips. Recall,
3
Use your calculator: STAT ENTER; type y, 0, 2, 4, 6 and 8, into L1 define g(y) = 200y by
L2 = 200 × L1 , and type p(y), 0.17, . . . , 0.17, into L3 ; then STAT CALC ENTER 2nd L2 , L3
ENTER; then read x̄ = 956.
4
Use your calculator: Define g(y) = y 2 by L2 = L21 then STAT CALC ENTER 2nd L2 , L3
ENTER. There is no ”short–cut” to this calculation, in contrast to the first example involving
g(y) = 200y where E[200Y ] = 200E[Y ].
62Chapter 3. Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions (ATTENDANCE 4)

y 1 2 3 4
p(y) 0.700 0.210 0.063 0.027

(a) Expected value, g(y) = y,

X
E(Y ) = yp(y) = 1(0.7) + 2(0.21) + 3(0.063) + 4(0.027) =
y

(i) 1.417 (ii) 2.233 (iii) 2.539 (iv) 4.567.

(b) If g(y) = y1 ,
  X
1 1 1 1 1 1
E = p(y) = (0.7) + (0.21) + (0.063) + (0.027) =
Y y
y 1 2 3 4

(i) 0.41755 (ii) 0.83275 (iii) 1.53955 (iv) 2.56775.

(c) If g(y) = 200
y
1
+ 200y + 5,
 
200 1
E[g(Y )] = E + +5
Y 200Y
  
1 1
= E 200 + +5
200 Y
   
1 1
= 200 + E + E[5]
200 Y
 
1
= 200 + (0.83275) + 5 =
200
(i) 43.20 (ii) 57.80 (iii) 109.35 (iv) 171.55.

4. Variance and standard deviation: seizures. The probability function for the
number of seizures, Y , of a typical epileptic person in any given year is given
in the following table,
y 0 2 4 6 8 10
p(y) 0.17 0.21 0.18 0.11 0.16 0.17

where, recall, µ = E(Y ) = 4.78 and E (Y 2 ) = 34.92,

(a) Variance. The variance in number of seizures is given by5
σ 2 = V [Y ] = E (Y − µ)2
 
X
= (y − µ)2 p(y)
y

= (0 − 4.78)2 (0.17) + (2 − 4.78)2(0.21) + · · · + (10 − 4.78)2 (0.17) ≈

5
Use your calculator: STAT ENTER; type y, 0, 2, 4, 6 and 8, into L1 , define g(y) = (y − 4.78)2
by L2 = (L1 − 4.78)2 , and type p(y), 0.17, . . . , 0.17, into L3 ; then STAT CALC ENTER 2nd L2 ,
L3 ENTER; then read x̄ = 12.07.
Section 3. The Expected Value of a Random Variable or a Function of a Random Variable (ATTENDANCE

(i) 7.32 (ii) 8.78 (iii) 10.50 (iv) 12.07.

Alternatively, since, from above, E (Y 2 ) = 34.92,

σ 2 = V [Y ] = E (Y − µ)2 = E Y 2 − µ2 = 34.92 − 4.782 ≈

 

(i) 7.32 (ii) 8.78 (iii) 10.50 (iv) 12.07.

(b) The standard deviation6 in the number of seizures is
p √
σ = V (Y ) ≈ 12.07 ≈

(circle one) (i) 3.47 (ii) 4.11 (iii) 5.07 (iv) 6.25.
In other words, we expect to see about µ ± σ = 4.78 ± 3.47 seizures
according to the probability distribution given here.
(c) Understanding standard deviation: “dispersion”.

4.78 +- 3.47 4.78 +- 2.47 4.78 +- 1.47

P(Y = y) P(Y = y) P(Y = y)

0.20 0.20 0.20

0.15 0.15 0.15

0.10 0.10 0.10

0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10

(a) seizure distribution (b) another distribution (c) and another distribution

Figure 3.3: Standard deviation: dispersion of distribution

The standard deviation measures the dispersion of a probability distribu-

tion. The most dispersed distribution occurs in
(i) (a) (ii) (b) (iii) (c).
(d) Standard deviation is population standard deviation, not sample standard
deviation. If p(y) is a good representation of population frequency distri-
bution, then standard deviation is equal to population standard deviation
parameter σ = 3.47. Also, V (Y ) = σ 2 = 12.07
(i) True (ii) False

5. Variance and standard deviation: rolling a pair of dice. If the dice are fair, the
distribution of Y (the sum of two rolls of a pair of dice) is

y 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
P (Y = y) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

6 √
VARS Statistics ENTER σx ENTER 2nd . ENTER; read 3.47.
64Chapter 3. Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions (ATTENDANCE 4)

(a) Expected value7 , g(y) = y,

   
X 1 1
µ = E(Y ) = yp(y) = 2 + · · · + 12 =
y
36 36

(i) 4 (ii) 5 (iii) 6 (iv) 7.

(b) If8 g(y) = y 2 ,
   
2
X
2 2 1 2 1
E(Y ) = y p(y) = 2 + · · · + 12 =
y
36 36

(i) 35.43 (ii) 47.61 (iii) 54.83 (iv) 65.67.

(c) Variance.

σ 2 = V [Y ] = E (Y − µ)2 = E Y 2 − µ2 = 54.83 − 72 ≈
 

(i) 3.32 (ii) 5.83 (iii) 7.50 (iv) 8.07.

(d) Standard deviation. p √
σ= V (Y ) ≈ 5.83 ≈
(i) 2.42 (ii) 3.11 (iii) 4.07 (iv) 5.15.
(e) If g(y) = 2y + 3,

E(2Y + 3) = 2E(Y ) + E(3) = 2(7) + 3 =

(i) 14 (ii) 15 (iii) 16 (iv) 17.

(f) If9 g(y) = 2y + 3,

V (2Y − 3) = 22 V (Y ) + V (3) ≈ 22 (5.83) + 0 =

(i) 19.72 (ii) 21.33 (iii) 23.32 (iv) 25.54.

7 1 1
STAT ENTER; type y, 2, 3, . . . , 12, into L1 and type p(y), 36 , . . . , 36 , into L3 ; then STAT
CALC ENTER 2nd L1 , L3 ENTER.
8 1
STAT ENTER; type y, 2, 3, . . . , 12, into L1 define g(y) = y 2 by L2 = L21 , and type p(y), 36 ,
1
. . . , 36 , into L3 ; then STAT CALC ENTER 2nd L2 , L3 ENTER.
9
Notice V (2Y ) = 22 V (Y ). Also, the minus sign in 2Y − 3 becomes a positive because 2Y − 3 =
2Y + (−1) × 3 and the constant “-1” is squared in the same way “2” is squared in V (2Y ) = 22 V (Y ).
Finally, V (3) = 0 because the constant has no dispersion.
Section 4. The Binomial Probability Distribution (ATTENDANCE 4) 65

3.4 The Binomial Probability Distribution

The distribution of a special discrete random variable called the binomial is,
 
n
p(y) = py q n−y , y = 0, 1, . . . , n.
y

Its expected value (mean), variance and standard deviation are given by,
√
µ = E(Y ) = np, σ 2 = V (Y ) = npq, σ = npq.

The related binomial experiment has the following properties:

(1) There are n identical trials, fixed in advance.
(2) Each trial can either be a success or failure.
(3) The probability of success on each trial is p and failure is q = 1 − p.
(4) The trials are independent.
(5) The random variable is number of successes, Y , in n trials.

Exercise 3.4 (The Binomial Probability Distribution)

1. Binomial distribution: practice with the calculator.

(a) If n = 10,
 p =0.65 (and so q = 1 − p = 1 − 0.65 = 0.35), y = 4, then
10
p(4) = 0.654 0.356 = (circle one)
4
(i) 0.025 (ii) 0.050 (iii) 0.069 (iv) 0.119.
(2nd DISTR
 0:binompdf(10,0.65,4)
 ENTER)
10
p(7) = 0.657 0.353 = (circle one)
7
(i) 0.125 (ii) 0.252 (iii) 0.369 (iv) 0.419.
(2nd DISTR 0:binompdf(10,0.65,7) ENTER)
µ = E(Y ) = np = (10)(0.65) =(circle one)
(i) 5.5 (ii) 6.5 (iii) 7.5 (iv) 8.5.
σ 2 = V (Y ) = npq = (10)(0.65)(0.35) =(circle one)
(i) 1.555 (ii) 2.275 (iii)
p 3.565 (iv) 4.575.
p √
σ = V (Y ) = npq = (10)(0.65)(0.35) ≈(circle one)
(i) 1.51 (ii) 2.27 (iii) 3.55 (iv) 4.57.
(b) If n = 11,
 p =0.25 (and so q = 1 − p = 1 − 0.25 = 0.75), y = 3, then
11
p(3) = 0.253 0.758 = (circle one)
3
(i) 0.151 (ii) 0.231 (iii) 0.258 (iv) 0.319.
(2nd DISTR 0:binompdf(11,0.25,3) ENTER)
µ = E(Y ) = np = (11)(0.25) =(circle one)
(i) 1.55 (ii) 2.05 (iii) 2.75 (iv) 3.555.
66Chapter 3. Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions (ATTENDANCE 4)

σ 2 = V (Y ) = npq = (11)(0.25)(0.75) =(circle one)

(i) 1.0555 (ii) 2.0625 p(iii) 3.0565 (iv) 4.1575.
p √
σ = V (Y ) = npq = (11)(0.25)(0.75) ≈(circle one)
(i) 1.44 (ii) 2.27 (iii) 3.55 (iv) 4.57.

2. Airplane engines. Each engine of four (n = 4) on an airplane fails 11% (p =

0.11, q = 1 − p = 0.89) of the time. Assume this problem obeys the conditions
of a binomial experiment.

(a) The chance

  two engines fail is
4
p(2) = 0.112 0.892 = (i) 0.005 (ii) 0.011 (iii) 0.058 (iv) 0.157.
2
(2nd DISTR binompdf(4,0.11,2).)

(b) The chance

  three engines fail is
4
p(2) = 0.113 0.891 = (i) 0.005 (ii) 0.011 (iii) 0.040 (iv) 0.057.
3
(2nd DISTR binompdf(4,0.11,3).)

(c) The chance at mosttwoengines fail is (circle one)

4
P (Y ≤ 2) = 2y=0 0.11y 0.894−y ≈
P
y
(i) 0.991 (ii) 0.995 (iii) 0.997 (iv) 0.999.
(2nd DISTR binomcdf(4,0.11,2): notice binomcdf, not binompdf!)

(d) The chance at most three

 engines fail is (circle one)
P3 4
P (Y ≤ 3) = y=0 0.11y 0.894−y ≈
y
(i) 0.991 (ii) 0.995 (iii) 0.997 (iv) 0.999.
(2nd DISTR binomcdf(4,0.11,3))

(e) The chance at least three engines fail is (circle one)

P (Y ≥ 3) = 1 − P (Y ≤ 2) ≈
(i) 0.005 (ii) 0.010 (iii) 0.016 (iv) 0.023.
(Subtract 2nd DISTR binomcdf(4,0.11,2) from one (1), not 2nd DISTR binomcdf(4,0.11,3)!)

(f) The expected number of failures is

µ = np = 4(0.11) =
(i) 0.44 (ii) 0.51 (iii) 0.62 (iv) 0.73.
(g) The variance in number of failures is
σ 2 = npq = 4(0.11)(1 − 0.11) =
(i) 0.15 (ii) 0.39 (iii) 0.51 (iv) 0.63.
(h) The √standard deviation in number of failures is
σ = 0.40 ≈
(i) 0.45 (ii) 0.56 (iii) 0.63 (iv) 0.83.
Section 4. The Binomial Probability Distribution (ATTENDANCE 4) 67

3. Multiple choice questions. On a multiple–choice exam with 4 possible answers

for each of the 5 questions, what is the probability that a student should get at
most 3 correct answers just by guessing?

(a) Since there are five questions,

n = (circle one) (i) 2 (ii) 3 (iii) 4 (iv) 5.
(b) Since a student wants 3 or more correct answers,
y = (circle one) (i) 2 (ii) 2, 3 (iii) 2, 3, 4 (iv) 3, 4, 5.
(c) Since the student is choosing from 4 questions at random,
p = (circle one) (i) 21 (ii) 13 (iii) 14 (iv) 51 .
(d) The chance a student
 should
 get at most 3 correct answers is
P3 5 1

y 3 11−y


P (Y ≤ 3) = y=0 4 4
≈
y
(i) 0.697 (ii) 0.704 (iii) 0.812 (iv) 0.984.
(2nd DISTR binomcdf(5, 14 ,3))

(e) The chance a student should get at least 3 correct answers is

P (Y ≥ 3) = 1 − P (Y ≤ 2) ≈
(i) 0.097 (ii) 0.104 (iii) 0.112 (iv) 0.284.
(1 - 2nd DISTR binomcdf(5, 14 ,2), not 2nd DISTR binomcdf(5, 14 ,2)!)

(f) Expected number of correct answers is

µ = E(Y ) = np = 5 × 41 =
(i) 41 (ii) 43 (iii) 45 (iv) 74 .
(g) Variance in the number of correct
answers:
σ 2 = V (Y ) = npq = 5 × 41 1 − 14 =
(i) 0.9375 (ii) 1.0235 (iii) 1.1375 (iv) 1.2475.
(h) Standard deviation in the number of correct answers:
√
q
σ = npq = 5 × 4 1 − 41 ≈
1

(i) 0.52 (ii) 0.97 (iii) 1.06 (iv) 1.26.

(i) Also, since V (Y ) = E(Y 2 ) − E(Y )2 ,
E(Y 2 ) = V (Y ) + E(Y )2 = V (Y ) + µ2 = 0.9375 + 1.252 =
(i) 1.5 (ii) 2.5 (iii) 3.5 (iv) 4.5.

4. Lawyer. A lawyer estimates she wins 40% (p = 0.4) of her cases. Assume
each trial is independent of one another and, in general, this problem obeys
the conditions of a binomial experiment. The lawyer presently represents 10
(n = 10) defendants.
(a) The tabular form of this distribution is given by,
r 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
P (R = r) 0.006 0.040 0.121 0.215 0.251 0.201 0.111 0.043 0.011 0.002 0.000
68Chapter 3. Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions (ATTENDANCE 4)

where, for example, the chance of her winning 6 of 10 cases is 0.111. In a

similar way10 , the chance of her winning 4 of 10 cases is (choose one)
(i) 0.121 (ii) 0.215 (iii) 0.251 (iv) 0.351.
(b) The graphical11 form of the probability distribution is given in Figure ??.

p(y)

0.40
0.30
0.20

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
number of cases won, y

Figure 3.4: Binomial distribution: lawyer wins

The number of cases the lawyer has most chance of winning is

(i) one (ii) two (iii) three (iv) four.
(c) The binomial distribution, in this case, is (circle one)
(i) skewed left (ii) skewed right (iii) more or less symmetric .
(d) In general, the binomial distribution will sometimes, but not always, be
symmetric. If her chance of winning was p = 0.1 instead of p = 0.4, the
binomial distribution would be (circle one)
(i) skewed left (ii) skewed right (iii) more or less symmetric.
(e) Match the four general conditions of a binomial experiment on the left
with how these conditions appear in this question.
general conditions lawyer example
(i) There are n trials, (i) There is a 40% chance the lawyer wins.
where n is fixed in advance of the experiment.
(ii) The trials are identical and (ii) Each trial is independent of one another.
two possible outcomes: success (S) or failure (F).
(iii) The trials are independent of one another. (iii) There are 10 trials.
(iv) The probability of success is p (iv) The trials are identical
and remains constant from one trial to the next. and can only be won or lost.
(v) The random variable is number of successes, Y (v) Lawyer’s number of wins.

10
Use your calculator to construct the entire distribution table: STAT EDIT ENTER; type 0,1,
. . . ,10 into L1 ; define L2 = 2nd DISTR 0:binompdf(10, 0.4, L1 ) ENTER.
11
Use your calculator to draw the distribution: STAT EDIT ENTER; type 0,1, . . . ,10 into L1 ;
define L2 = 2nd DISTR 0:binompdf(10, 0.4, L1 ) ENTER; set up window: WINDOW 0 10 1 -0.1 0.3
0.1 1; pick histogram: 2nd STAT PLOT ENTER pick histogram, make Xlist L1 and Freq L2 ; then
GRAPH TRACE.
Section 5. The Geometric Probability Distribution (ATTENDANCE 4) 69

Match the four items that describe the lawyer example with the four con-
ditions of a binomial experiment.

Lawyer Example (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)

Binomial Experiment Conditions (iii)

(f) Understanding the binomial formula.

Chance of nine wins and then a lose would be p9 q = 0.49 0.61 ,
eight wins, one lose, one win would be: p8 qp = p9 q = 0.49 0.61 ,
seven wins, one lose, two wins would be: p7 qp2 = p9 q = 0.49 0.61 , . . . .
Since nine wins occurs ten different
  ways, chance nine wins would be:
10
10 × p9 q = 10 × 0.49 0.61 = 0.49 0.61 .
9
In
 general,
 chance of y wins in n trials is binomial formula,
n
py q n−y , y = 0, 1, . . . , n
y
(i) True (ii) False
(g) Conditional versus unconditional binomial.
Since P (Y > 3) = 1 − P (Y ≤ 3) ≈
(i) 0.46 (ii) 0.58 (iii) 0.62 (iv) 0.67,
(Subtract 2nd DISTR binomcdf(10,0.4,3) from one (1).)
P (Y > 4) = 1 − P (Y ≤ 4) ≈
(i) 0.023 (ii) 0.179 (iii) 0.275 (iv) 0.367,
(Subtract 2nd DISTR binomcdf(10,0.4,4) from one (1).)
and P (Y > 4 + 3) = P (Y > 7) = 1 − P (Y ≤ 7) ≈ (circle one)
(i) 0.012 (ii) 0.048 (iii) 0.025 (iv) 0.065,
(Subtract 2nd DISTR binomcdf(10,0.4,7) from one (1).)
and12 P (Y > 4 + 3|Y > 4) = P (Y P>4+3,Y = PP(Y(Y>4+3)
(Y >4)
>4)
>4)
= PP (Y >7)
(Y >4)
≈
(i) 0.034 (ii) 0.048 (iii) 0.075 (iv) 0.165;
in other words, P (Y > 3) = 0.62 6= P (Y > 4 + 3|Y > 4) = 0.03. The
chance the lawyer wins at least 4 cases is not equal to the chance she wins
at least 8 cases, given winning at least 5 cases.

3.5 The Geometric Probability Distribution

The geometric distribution, the probability of first success on the yth trial, of
p(y) = P (Y = y) = q y−1 p, y = 1, 2, . . . ,
and its expected value (mean), variance and standard deviation are,
1
r
2 q q
µ = E(Y ) = , σ = V (Y ) = 2 , σ = .
p p p2
12
Since Y > 4 + 3 = 7 and Y > 4, then, together, Y > 7 and so P (Y > 4 + 3, Y > 4) = P (Y > 7).
70Chapter 3. Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions (ATTENDANCE 4)

Exercise 3.5 (The Geometric Probability Distribution)

1. Geometric probability distribution: bull’s eye. There is a 15% (p = 0.15) chance
of hitting a bull’s eye on a dart board. Throws are independent of one another.
(a) The chance the first bull’s eye occurs on the first try is, of course, 15%.
The chance the first bull’s eye occurs on the second try equals the chance
a miss occurs on the first try and a bull’s eye occurs on the second try,
p(2) = (0.85)0.15 = (i) 0.1155 (ii) 0.1275 (iii) 0.1385 (iv) 0.2515.
(b) The chance the first bull’s eye occurs on the third try is equal to the chance
of two misses and then a bull’s eye occurs on the third try,
p(3) = (0.85)(0.85)0.15 = (0.85)20.15 ≈ (choose one)
(i) 0.078 (ii) 0.099 (iii) 0.108 (iv) 0.158.
(c) The chance the first bull’s eye occurs on the fourth try is
p(4) = (0.85)3 0.15 ≈ (circle one)
(i) 0.078 (ii) 0.092 (iii) 0.108 (iv) 0.151.
(Use your calculator: 2nd DISTR D:geometpdf(0.15,4) ENTER.)

(d) The chance the first bull’s eye occurs on the eleventh try, y = 11, is
p(11) = q y−1 p = (0.85)11−1 0.15 ≈ (circle one)
(i) 0.01 (ii) 0.02 (iii) 0.03 (iv) 0.04.
(2nd DISTR D:geometpdf(0.15,11) ENTER.)

(e) Expectation. The expected number of attempts until first bull’s eye is
µ = E(Y ) = 1p = 0.15
1
≈ (circle one)
(i) 5.4 (ii) 6.2 (iii) 6.7 (iv) 7.7.
(f) Variance. The variance in the number of attempts until first bull’s eye is
σ 2 = V (X) = pq2 = 1−0.15
0.152
≈ (choose one)
(i) 22.4 (ii) 25.7 (iii) 37.8 (iv) 43.8.
2. More Geometric: Shooting Hoops. There is a 35% (p = 0.35) chance of making
a basket on a free throw. Throws are independent of one another.
(a) The chance that the first basket occurs on the third try is
p(3) = q 2 p = (0.65)20.35 ≈ (circle one)
(i) 0.078 (ii) 0.148 (iii) 0.198 (iv) 0.238.
(b) Chance the first
P basket occurs at most on the third try is
P (Y ≤ 3) = 3y=1 q y−1 p = [(0.65)0 + (0.65)1 + (0.65)2]0.35 ≈ (circle one)
(i) 0.425 (ii) 0.525 (iii) 0.625 (iv) 0.725.
(2nd DISTR D:geometcdf(0.35,3) ENTER.)

(c) Chance the first basket occurs at least on the third try is
P (Y ≥ 3) = 1 − P (Y ≤ 2) = 1 − [(0.65)0 + (0.65)1 ]0.35 ≈ (circle one)
(i) 0.123 (ii) 0.248 (iii) 0.325 (iv) 0.423.
(Subtract 2nd DISTR D:geometcdf(0.35,2) ENTER from one (1).)
Section 6. The Geometric Probability Distribution (ATTENDANCE 4) 71

(d) Expectation. Expected number of attempts until first basket is µ = E(Y ) =

1 1
p
= 0.35 ≈ (circle one)
(i) 2.9 (ii) 6.2 (iii) 6.8 (iv) 7.2.
(e) Variance. Variance in the number of attempts until first basket is
σ 2 = V (X) = pq2 = 1−0.35
0.352
≈ (circle one)
(i) 0.4 (ii) 1.8 (iii) 2.2 (iv) 5.3.
(f) We have assumed that each attempt is independent of every other throw
and chance of a basket remains constant, p = 0.35, on every throw.
(i) True (ii) False
(g) Memoryless property.
Since P (Y > 3) = 1 − P (Y ≤ 3) = 1 − [(0.65)0 + (0.65)1 + (0.65)2 ]0.35 ≈
(i) 0.023 (ii) 0.179 (iii) 0.275 (iv) 0.365,
P (Y > 4) = 1−P (Y ≤ 4) = 1−[(0.65)0 +(0.65)1 +(0.65)2 +(0.65)3]0.35 ≈
(i) 0.023 (ii) 0.179 (iii) 0.275 (iv) 0.365,
and P (Y > 4 + 3) = P (Y > 7) = 1 − P (Y ≤ 7) ≈ (circle one)
(i) 0.049 (ii) 0.148 (iii) 0.225 (iv) 0.365,
and13 P (Y > 4 + 3|Y > 4) = P (Y P>4+3,Y
(Y >4)
>4)
= PP(Y(Y>4+3)
>4)
= PP (Y >7)
(Y >4)
≈
(i) 0.075 (ii) 0.148 (iii) 0.275 (iv) 0.365;
in other words, P (Y > 3) = P (Y > 4 + 3|Y > 4) ≈ 0.275. The chance
of making first basket on at least the 4th throw is equal to the chance of
making first basket on at least the 8th throw, given making first basket on
at least the 5th throw. This indicates past baskets not relevant to future
baskets.

3.6 The Negative Binomial Probability Distribu-

tion
The negative binomial, the probability of rth success on the yth trial, is
 
y−1
p(y) = P (Y = y) = pr q y−r , y = r, r + 1, . . . ,
r−1

and its expected value (mean), variance and standard deviation are,
r
r 2 rq rq
µ = E(Y ) = , σ = V (Y ) = 2 , σ = .
p p p2

Exercise 3.6 (The Negative Binomial Probability Distribution)

13
Since Y > 4 + 3 = 7 and Y > 4, then, together, Y > 7 and so P (Y > 4 + 3, Y > 4) = P (Y > 7).
72Chapter 3. Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions (ATTENDANCE 4)

1. Negative binomial: bull’s eye. There is a 15% (p = 0.15) chance of hitting a

bull’s eye on a dart board. Throws are independent of one another.

(a) The chance the second bull’s eye will occur on the first try is, of course,
0%. The chance the second bull’s eye occurs on the second try is equal to
the chance a hit occurs on the first and second try,
p(2) = (0.15)0.15 = (i) 0.0225 (ii) 0.1275 (iii) 0.1385 (iv) 0.1665.
(b) The chance the second, r = 2, bull’s eye occurs on the third, y = 3, try
equals the chance of either a miss and a hit, in that order, or a hit and a
miss, in that order, and then a bull’s eye on the third try, and so (circle
one or more)
i. p(3) = (0.85)(0.15)0.15 + (0.15)(0.85)0.15
ii. p(3) = 2(0.15)20.85 = 0.03825
 
2
iii. p(3) = (0.15)2 (0.85)1
1
 
y−1
iv. p(y) = pr q y−r , y = 3, r = 2, p = 0.15
r−1
(c) The chance14 that the second, r = 2, bull’s eye will occur on the fourth,
y = 4, try equals the chance of either a (hit,miss,miss), (miss,hit,miss)
or (miss,miss,hit), and then a bull’s eye occurs on the fourth try, and so
(circle one or more)
i. p(4) = (0.15)(0.85)(0.85)0.15+
+(0.85)(0.15)(0.85)0.15 + (0.85)(0.85)(0.15)0.15
ii. p(4) = 3(0.15)2(0.85)2 = 0.04876875
 
3
iii. p(4) = (0.15)2 (0.85)2
1
 
y−1
iv. p(y) = pr q y−r , y = 4, r = 2, p = 0.15
r−1
(d) The chance15 the second, r = 2, bull’s eye occurs on the fifth, y = 5, try is
(circle one or more)
 
y−1
i. p(y) = pr q y−r , y = 5, r = 2, p = 0.15
r−1
 
4
ii. p(5) = (0.15)2 (0.85)3
1
iii. p(5) = 4(0.15)2(0.85)3
iv. 0.05527125
14
PRGM NGBINPMF ENTER ENTER (again!) 4 ENTER 2 ENTER 0.15 ENTER.)
15
PRGM NGBINPMF ENTER ENTER (again!) 5 ENTER 2 ENTER 0.15 ENTER.
Section 6. The Geometric Probability Distribution (ATTENDANCE 4) 73

(e) The chance16 the third, r = 3, bull’s eye occurs on the sixth, y = 6, try is
(circle one or more)
 
y−1
i. p(y) = pr q y−r , y = 6, r = 3, p = 0.15
r−1
 
5
ii. p(6) = (0.15)3 (0.85)3
2
iii. p(6) = 10(0.15)3(0.85)3
iv. 0.0207267188
(f) The chance17 the fifth, r = 5, bull’s eye occurs on the eleventh, y = 11,
try is (circle one or more)
 
y−1
i. p(y) = pr q y−r , y = 11, r = 5, p = 0.15
r−1
 
10
ii. p(11) = (0.15)5 (0.85)6
4
iii. p(11) = 210(0.15)5(0.85)6
iv. 0.0060143562
(g) The chance the 19th bull’s eye occurs on the 31st try is (circle one)
 
y−1
i. p(y) = pr q y−r , y = 19, r = 31, p = 0.15
r−1
 
y−1
ii. p(y) = pr q y−r , y = 25, r = 19, p = 0.15
r−1
 
y−1
iii. p(y) = pr q y−r , y = 31, r = 19, p = 0.85
r−1
 
y−1
iv. p(y) = pr q y−r , y = 31, r = 19, p = 0.15
r−1
(h) Expectation. The expected number of attempts until the third bull’s eye
3
is µ = E(Y ) = pr = 0.15 ≈ (circle one)
(i) 20 (ii) 26.7 (iii) 33.3 (iv) 37.2.
(i) More expectation. The expected number of attempts until the fourth bull’s
4
eye is µ = E(Y ) = pr = 0.15 ≈ (circle one)
(i) 20 (ii) 26.7 (iii) 33.3 (iv) 37.2.
(j) And yet more expectation. The expected number of attempts until the fifth
5
bull’s eye is µ = E(Y ) = pr = 0.15 ≈ (circle one) (i) 20 (ii) 26.7 (iii)
33.3 (iv) 37.2.
16
PRGM NGBINPMF ENTER ENTER (again!) 6 ENTER 3 ENTER 0.15 ENTER.
17
PRGM NGBINPMF ENTER ENTER (again!) 11 ENTER 5 ENTER 0.15 ENTER.
74Chapter 3. Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions (ATTENDANCE 4)

(k) Variance. The variance in the number of attempts until third bull’s eye is
σ 2 = V (X) = prq2 = 3(1−0.15)
0.152
≈
(i) 2.4 (ii) 5.7 (iii) 113.3 (iv) 137.2.
(l) More variance. The variance in number of attempts until fourth bull’s eye
σ 2 = V (X) = prq2 = 4(1−0.15)
0.152
≈
(i) 2.4 (ii) 5.7 (iii) 151.1 (iv) 167.2.

2. More negative binomial: shooting hoops. There is a 35% (p = 0.35) chance of

making a basket on a free throw. Throws are independent of one another.

(a) The chance the third, r = 3, basket occurs on the second, y = 2, try is
p(2) ≈ (circle one) (i) 0 (ii) 0.148 (iii) 0.198 (iv) 0.223.
(b) The chance the 15th, r = 15, basket occurs on the 50th, y = 50, try is
(circle one)
 
y−1
i. p(y) = pr q y−r , y = 50, r = 15, p = 0.65
r−1
 
y−1
ii. p(y) = pr q y−r , y = 25, r = 19, p = 0.15
r−1
 
y−1
iii. p(y) = pr q y−r , y = 50, r = 15, p = 0.35
r−1
 
y−1
iv. p(y) = pr q y−r , y = 31, r = 19, p = 0.15
r−1
18
(c) The chance
 the7th, r = 7, basket occurs on the 50th, y = 50, try is
50 − 1
p(7) = 0.357 (1 − 0.35)50−7 =
7−1
(i) 0 (ii) 0.00005117 (iii) 0.00006117 (iv) 0.00008117.
(d) Expectation. The expected number of attempts until a second basket is
2
µ = E(Y ) = pr = 0.35 ≈ (circle one)
(i) 5.7 (ii) 6.2 (iii) 6.8 (iv) 7.8.
(e) Variance. The variance in number of attempts until a second basket is
σ 2 = V (X) = prq2 = 2(1−0.35)
0.352
≈ (circle one)
(i) 0.4 (ii) 1.8 (iii) 2.2 (iv) 10.6.

3. Understanding negative binomial.

(a) In the “shooting hoops” problem, we have assumed that each attempt is
independent of every other throw and chance of a basket remains constant,
p = 0.35, on every throw.
(i) True (ii) False
18
PRGM NGBINPMF ENTER ENTER (again!) 50 ENTER 7 ENTER 0.35 ENTER.
Section 6. The Geometric Probability Distribution (ATTENDANCE 4) 75

(b) Deriving the negative binomial formula. If A is the event of r − 1 successes

in y − 1 trials, and B is the event of a success in the yth trial, then
 
y−1
P (A) = pr−1 q y−r , P (B) = p,
r−1

but A and B are independent, so

   
y−1 r−1 y−r y−1
p(y) = P (A∩B) = P (A)×P (B) = p q ×p = pr q y−r
r−1 r−1

which is the negative binomial.

(i) True (ii) False
(c) If r = 1,
     
y−1 r y−r y−1 1 y−1 y−1
pq = p q = pq y−1 = pq y−1 .
r−1 1−1 0

The geometric is a special case of the negative binomial where r = 1.

(i) True (ii) False