Risk Assessment Methodologies for Safety
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ScribdTranslationsRisk Assessment Methodologies for Safety
Translated by
ScribdTranslationsQualification of Local Public Administration Professionals
MODULE 4
Methodologies
of
Assessment of Professional Risks
Trainer - Magda Sousa
OBJECTIVE
• Aplicar as metodologias adequadas à avaliação e controlo
dos riscos
associated with hygiene and safety conditions at work.
Professional Risks
Director
Napete
Miss Strudel
Napo
CONCEPTS
DangerSource or situation with potential for the
damage, in terms of injuries or wounds to the
body
human or health damage, to heritage, to
workplace environment or a combination of these.
Hazard IdentificationProcess of recognizing the
existence of a danger and defining its characteristics.
CONCEPTS
Risk C– ombination of probability and the
consequences of the occurrence of a
certain
dangerous event.
Risk AssessmentGlobal estimation process of the
magnitude of the risk and the decision about its
acceptability.
Acceptable Risk–Risk that has been reduced to a level that
possa ser aceite pela organização tomando em
atenção as
your legal obligations and your own HSE policy.
CONSIDERATIONS
• Theorganization must establish procedures for the identification of the
dangers, the assessment of risks and the implementation of control measures
necessary.
The risk assessment must have an extensive nature, broadening to
all sectors of the company and all its facets.
Risk assessment should be done in the design phase or already in
drafting, especially in the case of adopting or introducing changes
important at the level of technologies, substances, 'layout'...
DEFINITION
The purpose of risk analysis is to determine the
probability of occurrence of a certain event
and quantify the consequences arising from
your
realization, which can be expressed as follows:
R=PxG
R= Risk
P = Probability
G= Gravity
ORiskvaries in direct proportion to
probability and severity.
The greater the probability and severity
the greater the risk.
Less probability and lower gravity
it is the risk.
In practice, probability and severity
have reverse development curves:
GRAVITY
As the probability increases, the gravity decreases.
As gravity increases, the probability decreases.
Hazard Identification
Phases of the Methodology
yes
Risk Analysis
Risk Quantification
There areRisk Analysis Modelsthat, of
simplified formallow the obtaining of 3
or more levels of this same risk, through
characterization of therelative frequency
probabilityand fromgravityassociated,
generally the shape of the accident.
The model presented by
Somerville, with 3 levels of
probability and severity:
G
r
Probability
a
v
I
A B C
A 11 2
B 1 2 3
C 2 3 3
d
a
d
e
A - Low
B– Medium
C– Elevated
FIGURE 1 – Risk Analysis Model, according to Somerville.
As an alternative to this model, it is proposed
a 4x4 matrix, that is, with 4 levels of
probability and severity, characterized
through the statistical indexes of
frequency and severity assessment,
respectively.
Probability
G
r
A B C D
a
v
I
The risk levels are now 5, with the
following specification:
A 1 2 2 3
B 2 2 3 4
C 2 3 4 5
D 3 4 5 5
d
a
d
e
Level 1 - Non-priority action;
Level 2 - Medium-term intervention;
Level 3 - Short-term intervention;
Level 4 - Urgent action;
FIGURE 2 - Alternative Risk Analysis Model
Level 5 - Very urgent action
requiring immediate measures.
Risk Analysis Methods
Due to the relative importance of each of its
components of "identification" and "quantification" of risk, is
usually distinguish them in:
Qualitative
Semi-quantitative
Methods
-Quantitative
Qualitative Methods
• They describe, without reaching a global quantification, the dangerous points of
an installation and the existing security measures, whether of type
preventive or protective.
We also identify which combinations of events can
create a dangerous situation and the ways to prevent them from happening.
They can be of typeDescriptiveor coat the aspect of aTree
Logic.
Qualitative Methods
Descriptive -They make a detailed description of the installation and of
respective dangerous points, with the level of safety determined at
function of compliance of processes and procedures with standards or
safety regulations.
Risk study at the workplace
-Movement studies
Implementation studies
Type
-Signage plans
Descriptive
-Flowcharts
Checklists
Tables of dangerous chemical reactions, etc.
Qualitative Methods
Logical trees -they are diagrams of events.
"Cause-effect" – arises from a
initial event defines the
possible consequences, the interactions
Type
these and so on.
of
Cause-effect – when from a
Logical Trees
final event is analyzed in the facts, and
respective combinations, which gave them
origin.
Semi-Quantitative Methods
Simplified System
Method
of
of
Risk Assessment
of
Methods
Semi-Quantitative
William Fine
Accident
They assign indices to risk situations
identified and establish action plans.
Quantitative Methods
They quantify what can happen and assign a probability to it.
occurrence.
Among theQuantitative Methodsfor example:
Frequency and severity indices;
Methods
Reliability indices;
Average failure rates
-etc.
Statisticians
Quantitative Methods
-Failure models;
Gas cloud diffusion model.
-etc.
Models
Mathematicians
Models
Gretener Method
Punctual
William Fine Method
Introduction
William Fine's method allows you to calculate gravity and
relative probabilities of each risk, with what
we will be able to appropriately guide the
actions
preventive. On the other hand, it allows to find
the
economic justification for corrective actions
possible.
Calculation Formula
The gravity of the danger due to a recognized risk is calculated
through the following formula:
GP= Degree of Hazard
C = Consequences
GP = C x E x P
E= Exposição
P = Probability
NoteThe numerical values used will be based on
in the experience of those who use the method.
CONCEPTS
Consequences–these are the most likely outcomes of an accident
resulting from the risk in analysis and weighing both personal damages
and the
materials.
Exhibition-is defined by an index associated with the frequency with
that presents a risk situation, being such the first event
undesirable that would initiate the sequence leading to the accident.
Probability - Probability is understood as the index associated with
probability once the sequence is started and it develops leading to
accident and respective consequences.
Formula
yes
Economic Justification
Economic Justification
J = C x E x P / Fc x Gc
Fc= Factor de Custo
Gc= Grau de Correcção
William Fine Method
Frames with suggested values assigned to each one
two coefficients, as a function of
parameters
significant.
CONSEQUENCES
Severity Level
Bodily Injuries
Numerous deaths
Materials donation
Value
Large damages > €1,000,000
Important break in
activity
Several deaths
Death
From €500,000 to €1,000,000 50
Give us 100,000€
25
500.000€
Severe injuries, amputations, disability From €1,000 to €100,000
15
permanent
Temporary disabilities
Minor injuries
Up to €1,000
5
1
Small damages
EXHIBITION
Frequency of occurrence of the risk situation
Value
Continuously, several times a day.
10
6
Frequently, about once a day.
Occasionally, once a week to once a month.
Irregularly, from once a month to once a year.
Rarely, it is known that it has already happened.
3
2
1
Remotely possible, there is no knowledge that it has already happened. 0.5
occurred.
PROBABILITY
Probability of the sequence of events, including the Value
consequences.
It is the most likely outcome if the initial situation occurs.
It is completely possible, the probability is 50%.
It would be a sequence or a rare coincidence.
10
6
3
It would be a remotely possible coincidence. It is known that it has already happened. 1
Extremely remote but conceivable. It has never happened in many. 0.5
years of exposure.
Practically impossible sequence. Chance of 1 in a million
0.1
DEGREE OF DANGEROUSNESS
GP = C x E
Classification
Measures
200
100 to 200
20 to 100
< 20
Very high
High
Immediate correction
Correction as soon as possible
Substantial
Acceptable
It must be eliminated but it is not a
emergency
Situation to maintain
COST FACTOR
Expected value of the corrective action cost
Value
More than €50,000
10
6
25.000€a 50.000€
10.000€a 25.000€
1,000€ to 10,000€
100€ to 1,000€
25€a 100€
4
3
2
1
< 25€
0.5
DEGREE OF CORRECTION
Reduction of risk through the application of corrective action
Value
Risk completely eliminated
1
2
3
4
6
Risk reduced by at least 75% but not completely
Reduced risk of 50% to 75%
Reduced risk of 25% to 50%
Slight effect on risk, less than 25%
J > 10 – Justified correction
J < 10 - Unjustified correction
Simplified System
from
Accident Risk Assessment
Action Procedures
1. Consideration of the risk to be analyzed.
2. Development of the verification questionnaire on the risk factors that enable its
materialization.
3. Assignment of the level of importance to each of the risk factors.
4. Filling out the workplace verification questionnaire, estimation of exposure and
normally expected consequences.
[Link] of the level of disability of the questionnaire used.
[Link] of the probability level based on the level of deficiency and the level of
exposure.
7. Comparison of the probability level found with the available historical data.
8. Estimation of the risk level based on the probability level and the level of consequences.
9. Definition of intervention levels, considering the obtained results and their
justification
socio-economic.
10. Comparison of the results obtained with those estimated from information
sources
accurate and of the experience.
Determination of the Level of Disability
Level of Disability ND
Meaning
Very deficient
(MD)
10 Significant risk factors were detected that
they determine the production of failures as very likely.
A significant risk factor was detected that
6 needs to be corrected. The effectiveness of the
set of
existing preventive measures are reduced in such a way
appreciable.
Deficient
(D)
Less important risk factors were detected.
The effectiveness of the set of preventive measures
does not
is significantly reduced.
Improvement opportunities
(M)
Acceptable
(A)
-
No significant anomalies were detected. The risk
it is under control.
Determination of Exposure Level
Level of Exposure NE
Meaning
Continuously. Several times during the day of
4 work and for a prolonged time.
Continued
(EC)
Several times during the workday, but for a short time
3 tempo.
Frequent
(EF)
Sometimes during the workday and for
2 short periods of time.
Occasional
(EO)
Irregularly.
1
sporadic
(A)
Determination of Probability Level
Exposure Level (EL)
4
3
2
1
10
6
MA-40
MA-30
A-20
A-10
Level
of
Deficiency
(ND)
MA-24
M-8
A-18
M-6
A-12
B-4
M-6
B-2
2
Meaning of the different levels of probability
Level
of
NP
Meaning
Probability
Deficient situation with continuous or excessive exposure
Very High
(Ma)
Between deficient with frequent exposure. Normally the
24 and 40 risk materialization occurs frequently.
Deficient situation with frequent or occasional exposure
Between a very deficient situation with occasional
exposure or
10 and 20 sporadic. The materialization of risk can occur several times.
times during the workday.
Alta
(A)
Deficient situation with sporadic exposure or situation
It is improvable with continuous or frequent exposure.
6 and 8 It is possible that the damage occurs at some point.
Media
(M)
Situation improvable with occasional exposure or
It is sporadic. The materialization of the risk is not
expected.
2 and 4 although it is possible for this to happen.
Low
(B)
Determination of the Level of Consequences
Level
of
Consequences
Meaning
NC
Personal Data
Material Donations
Mortal or
catastrophic
(M)
1 dead or more.
Total destruction of
100
system
difficult
renewal.
Very serious
(MG)
Serious injuries that may lead to partial destruction of
60 are irreparable.
system
renewal
complex
Grave
(G)
Injuries with disability Halt in the process
25 temporary work for repair.
Light
(L)
Small injuries that are not repairable
10 require hospitalization. need for a stop
of process.
same
Determination
do
Risk and Intervention Level
NR = NP x NC
Level of Probability (NP)
40-24
20-10
2
4-2
100
60
I
I
I
II
4000-2400 2000-1200 800-600
400-200
Level
of
I
I
II
II – 240
2400-1440 1200-600
480-360
III - 120
Consequences
25
I
II
II
III
1000-600
500-250
200-150
100-50
(NC)
10
II
II – 200
III - 100
III
80-60
III – 40
IV - 20
400-240
Meaning of the Level of Intervention
Level
of
NR
Meaning
Intervention
Critical situation. Urgent correction.
I
4000-600
500-150
Correct and adopt control measures.
II
Improve if possible. Convenient to justify the
III
120-40 intervention and its profitability.
Do not intervene, unless a more specific analysis.
justify it.
IV
20
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