MODULE 5

Climate change
Climate change & other environmental issues are inter-linked
 Climate Change vs. Variability
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56.6
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1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

[Link]/ipcc/qa/[Link] (modified)
 Climate Change vs. Variability
Climate variability is natural.

Even in a stable climate regime, there will always

be some variation (wet/dry years, warm/cold
years) A year with completely “average” or
“normal” climate conditions is rare

The challenge for scientists is to determine

whether any increase/decrease in precipitation,
temperature, frequency of storms, sea level, etc.
is due to climate variability or climate change.
 Climate variability and Climate change

• Climate variability refers to short-term and natural

fluctuations in climate patterns over relatively short
time periods, typically ranging from weeks to
decades.

• Climate change, on the other hand, involves long-

term alterations in the average conditions of the
Earth's climate over extended periods, usually
spanning several decades to millions of years. It
focuses on shifts in temperature, precipitation, and
other climate parameters that persist for an
extended time.
• Climate variability is primarily driven by natural factors,
such as volcanic eruptions, ENSO, solar radiation variations,
and natural climate oscillations like the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

• Climate change primarily results from human activities,

especially the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the
atmosphere. These GHGs, like carbon dioxide (CO2) from
burning fossil fuels, enhance the greenhouse effect and
lead to long-term changes in global temperatures and
climate patterns.
• While some aspects of climate variability, like seasonal
changes, can be predicted with reasonable accuracy,
other short-term variations, such as specific weather
events, remain less predictable.

• Climate change is characterized by more predictable,

long-term trends, which can be projected with greater
certainty based on scientific models and historical
data.
• Climate variability can lead to short-term fluctuations
in weather patterns and can have significant regional
impacts, including droughts, floods, and variations in
agricultural yields.

• Climate change has a broader and more profound

impact on the Earth's climate system. It results in
shifts in average temperature and precipitation
patterns, rising sea levels, altered ecosystems, and
long-term consequences for societies and
economies.
What kinds of data do scientists use to study climate?

• Climate researchers use every possible direct and indirect

measurement to study the full history of Earth's climate, from
the latest satellite observations to samples of prehistoric ice
extracted from glaciers.

• When they focus on changes of the past 100-150 years, they

use observations made by modern scientific instruments.
Although the mercury thermometer and barometer were
both invented in the 1700s, they and other modern
instruments were not widely used for weather observations
till much later. In the United States, most weather stations
were established in the late 1800s.
• When scientists focus on climate from before the past
100-150 years, they use records from physical, chemical,
and biological materials preserved within the geologic
record.

• Organisms (such as diatoms and coral) can serve as useful

climate proxies. Other proxies include ice cores, tree rings,
and sediment cores.

• Chemical proxy records include isotope ratios, elemental

analyses, biomarkers, and biogenic silica. Taken together,
these proxies extend our knowledge of past climate back
hundreds of millions of years into the past.
 Climate Data
Tools for studying climate and climate change
Data Instrumental measurements (direct)
Historical documents
Natural recorders of climate or proxy data

Climate models
Understand climatic cause and effect
External factors climate system
Feedbacks
Test hypothesis
Quantitative (put numbers on ideas) and
Predict the future
 Instrumental Measurements (Direct)
Weather Stations ~40 years old Satellite
• Stevenson Screen
• Temperature

~140 years old

Automatic
Weather
Station
Proxy Records of Climate
• Proxies that record
annual growth patterns can
indicate year to year
variations in climate
-tree rings
-ice cores
-deep lake sediments
-coral reefs

• Limited to last 500-1000

years except ice cores
 Tree Rings

• Lighter, thicker wood tissue formed by rapid growth in spring and

much thinner, darker layers marking cessation of growth in autumn and
winter
• Limited to land areas outside of tropics
• Variations of tree ring width and density act as recorders of year to
year changes in temperature and rainfall
Sediments
 SEDIMENTS

• Sediments are deposited by wind and runoff water in different

types of locations. Lake sediments and deep-ocean sediments are
the least disturbed, and therefore the most relied upon sediment
proxies used by climatologists.
• When rain falls, the runoff erodes rocks on the continents and
transports the debris into streams and rivers until they are
deposited in less disturbed water, like the ocean or lakes.

• Organic matter dies and adds to the pile of sediment. The

sediments layer on top of each other over hundreds of years,
eventually creating a huge accumulation that documents the
makeup of the nearby terrain and the amount of precipitation
during the time. The composition of the sediments shows how the
climate changed in the area over time.

• Specific fossils correlate to certain temperatures, circulation

patterns, and chemical makeup of the water Rocks can show wind
direction. Charcoal in the sediments represent fire events, while
pollen shows the nearby plants.
• Sediment cores are typically dated using isotopic methods.
The amount of lead-210 (210Pb) is measured for sediments
that are younger than 150 years and carbon-14 (14C) is
measured for older sediments.

• An alternative method of measurement is varve (annual

layer) dating, which involves careful examination of the
visible layers of sediments.
 CORAL

The creatures that built the reefs can themselves also tell
us about the ecological conditions at the time they were
formed. By studying reefs, we can try to understand how
ocean temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels,
and sea level changed in over millions of years.
 Corals

multi-celled organisms that build reefs in tropical oceans

• Texture of calcite (CaCO3) incorporated in skeletons varies; lighter

parts during periods of rapid growth in summer and darker layers during
winter
• Measurements of oxygen-18 isotope concentration records sea surface
temperature and salinity (precipitation and runoff) variations
• Limited to tropical oceans
 ICE CORES

An ice core is a core sample that is typically removed from an

ice sheet or a high mountain glacier. Since the ice forms from
the incremental buildup of annual layers of snow, lower layers
are older than upper ones, and an ice core contains ice
formed over a range of years.
• Researchers drill ice cores from deep (sometimes more
than a mile, or more than 1.6 kilometers) inside the polar
ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, as well as some
high-latitude ice caps and mountain glaciers. They collect
ice cores in many locations around Earth to study regional
climate variability and compare and differentiate that
variability from global climate signals.

• The icy layers also hold particles—aerosols such as dust, ash,

pollen, trace elements and sea salts—that were in the
atmosphere at that time. These particles remain in the ice
thousands of years later, providing physical evidence of past
global events, such as major volcanic eruptions.
• Additionally, as the ice compacts over time, tiny bubbles
of the atmosphere—including greenhouse gases like
carbon dioxide and methane—press inside the ice.
These air pocket “fossils” provide samples of what the
atmosphere was like when that layer of ice formed.

• Scientists also use ice core temperature data to validate

climate models that predict Earth’s future climate.
 Ice Cores

• Limited to polar latitudes and mountain glaciers

• Darker and lighter layers are more or less dust blown in seasonally
• Measurements provide information on temperature, snowfall,
atmospheric composition (gases, dust, volcanic aerosols), sunspots, …
(21000 years)
Fossils of Past Vegetation
• Climate can be inferred from distinctive
vegetation types
• Palm-tree like fossil in Wyoming 45 Myrs
ago indicating the Cretaceous warm climate

• Climate can be
inferred from leaf size
and shape.
• Climate can be
inferred from pollen in
sediments: All flowering
plants produce pollen grains with
distinctive shapes.
 Marine Sediments

• Long cores drilled by specially

equipped ships

• Dating only accurate to about 40,000 years ago and can resolve
climate changes that occur on century scale or longer
The Earth’s Climate System:
Variability and change
Energy on Earth
The incoming radiant energy is transformed into various
forms (internal heat, potential energy, latent energy,
and kinetic energy) moved around in various ways
primarily by the atmosphere and oceans, stored and
sequestered in the ocean, land, and ice components
of the climate system, and ultimately radiated back to
space as infrared radiation.

An equilibrium climate mandates a balance between the

incoming and outgoing radiation and that the flows of
energy are systematic. These drive the weather systems
in the atmosphere, currents in the ocean, and
fundamentally determine the climate. And they can be
perturbed, with climate change.
The Earth would be -19°C (-2°F) without atmosphere. 99% of
the atmosphere is nitrogen and oxygen which are transparent
to radiation

The Natural Greenhouse Effect: clear sky

CH4
O3 N20
8% 6% Water Vapor

Carbon Dioxide
Carbon
Dioxide Water Ozone
26% Vapor
60% Methane, Nitrous
Oxide

Clouds also have a greenhouse effect

Kiehl and Trenberth 1997
Net observed
radiation
TOA

Trenberth & Stepaniak, 2003

 The role of the climate system
Atmosphere: Volatile turbulent fluid, strong winds, Chaotic
weather, clouds, water vapor feedback Transports heat,
moisture, materials etc.

Ocean: 70% of Earth, wet, fluid, high heat capacity

Stores, moves heat, fresh water, gases, chemicals
Adds delay of 10 to 100 years to response time
Land: Small heat capacity, small mass involved (conduction)
Water storage varies: affects sensible vs latent fluxes
Wide variety of features, slopes, vegetation, soils
Mixture of natural and managed
Vital in carbon and water cycles, ecosystems
Ice: Huge heat capacity, long time scales (conduction)
High albedo: ice-albedo feedback
Fresh water, changes sea level.
 The role of the atmosphere in energy
v The atmosphere is the most volatile component of
climate system
v Winds in jet streams exceed 100 mph or even 200
mph; winds move energy around.
v Thin envelope around planet 90% within 10 miles
of surface 1/400th of the radius of Earth; clouds
appear to hug the surface from space.
v The atmosphere does not have much heat capacity

v “Weather” occurs in troposphere (lowest part)

v Weather systems: cyclones, anticyclones, cold and
warm fronts tropical storms/hurricanes move
heat around: mostly upwards and polewards
 Example: Hadley Cells

The overturning
Hadley cells are the
main way the
atmosphere
transports energy
polewards in low
latitudes
“Extratropical Storms”

• Cyclones and anticyclones are the main

way of transporting energy polewards in
extratropics.

• Winds converging into the low, pull cold air

from the poles toward the equator, and
warm air from the equator to the poles.

• Where they meet is where we find fronts,

bringing widespread precipitation and
significant weather, like thunderstorms.
 Role of Oceans

v The oceans cover 70.8% of the Earth’s surface.

v The oceans are wet: water vapor from the surface
provides source for rainfall and thus latent heat energy to
the atmosphere.
v The heat capacity of the atmosphere is equivalent to that
of 3.5 m of ocean. The oceans slowly adjust to climate
changes and can sequester heat for years.
v The ocean is well mixed to about 20 m depth in summer
and over 100 m in winter.
v Total ocean: mean depth 3800 m.
v The ocean currents redistribute heat, fresh water, and
dissolved chemicals around the globe.
The great ocean conveyer: of heat and salts
 Role of Land
ØHeat penetration into land with annual cycle is ~2 m.
ØHeat capacity of land is much less than water:
ØSpecific heat of land 4½ less than sea water
ØFor moist soil maybe factor of 2
Ø Land plays lesser role than oceans in storing heat.
Consequently:
Ø Surface air temperature changes over land are large and occur much faster than over
the oceans.

Ø Land has enormous variety of features: topography, soils,

vegetation, slopes, water capacity.
Ø Land systems are highly heterogeneous and on small
spatial scales.
Ø Changes in soil moisture affect distribution of heat:
rise in temperature versus evaporation.
Ø Changes in land and vegetation affect climate through
albedo, roughness and evapotranspiration.
Kansas 2001
Irrigation circles:
Corn, sorghum green,
Wheat gold
 The Role of Ice
Major ice sheets, e.g., Antarctica and Greenland. Penetration of heat occurs
primarily through conduction.
Þ The mass involved in changes from year to year is small but important on
century time scales.
Unlike land, ice melts Þ changes in sea level on longer time-scales.

Ice volumes: 28,000,000 km3 water is in ice sheets, ice caps and glaciers.
Most is in the Antarctic ice sheet which, if melted, would increase sea level by ~65 m,
vs Greenland 7 m and the other glaciers and ice caps 0.35 m.
In Arctic: sea ice ~ 3-4 m thick
Around Antarctic: ~ 1-2 m thick
Ice is bright: reflects the solar radiation Þ ice-albedo feedback
Ice ­ Þ radiation reflected Þ cooler Þ Ice ­
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) partly grounded below sea level.
Þ Warming could alter grounding of the ice sheet, making it float, and
vulnerable to rapid (i.e. centuries) disintegration.
Þ rise in sea level of 4-6 m.
May be irreversible if collapse begins.
Observed Changes to the
Climate and their Causes
Some human-induced environmental changes relevant to
climate
• Changes in land use (e.g. farming, building cities)
• Storage and use of water (dams, reservoirs, irrigation)
• Combustion of fossil fuels
q Generation of heat
q Generation of particulate pollution (e.g., soot, smoke)
q Generation of gaseous pollution ® particulates (e.g., sulfur dioxide,
nitrogen dioxide; get oxidized to form sulfate, nitrate)
q Generates carbon dioxide
• Generation of other greenhouse gases
Methane, Nitrous oxide, Chlorofluorocarbons, Ozone

Especially via biomass burning, landfills, rice paddies agriculture,

animal husbandry, fossil fuel use, leaky fuel lines, and industry
Changes the composition of the atmosphere
Most important are the gases with long lifetimes
Like CO2 > 100 years (lifetime)
The incoming energy from the sun is 342 W m-2:
but this is the annual global mean:
It amounts to 175 PetaWatts =175,000,000 billion Watts.
About 120 PW is absorbed.

The biggest power plants in existence are 1000 MegaWatts

and we normally think of units of
1 KiloWatt = 1 bar heater; or 100 W = light bulb.

So the energy from the sun is 120 million of these power

stations. It shows:
1) Direct human influences are tiny vs nature.
2) The main way human activities can affect climate is
through interference with the natural flows of energy
such as by changing the composition of the atmosphere
 The enhanced greenhouse effect
CO2 has increased >33%

If CO2 were suddenly doubled then: (common sensitivity experiments performed

using GCMs)
• atmosphere must warm up to restore balance
via radiation to space
• In absence of other changes: warming is 1.2°C
• Feedbacks cause complications
• Best estimate is warming of 2.9°C
so feedbacks roughly double change
• Real world changes complex and
more gradual
 How sensitive our climate is to increases in CO2? Hence
the term – ‘climate sensitivity’.

• Over the past ~250 years human activity (burning fossil fuels and
change of land use) has caused a rise in atmospheric CO2 to levels
that are unprecedented in at least 800,000 years.

• Our atmosphere now contains about 45% more CO2 than it did
before the Industrial Revolution, and global temperature has
warmed by about 1°C.
• The key question that remains is exactly how much warming
can we expect (both in the near-term and the long-term) for a
given increase in carbon dioxide?

• Essentially we are asking how sensitive our climate is to

increases in CO2, hence the term – ‘climate sensitivity’.

• If we know what the climate sensitivity is, this will help us

estimate how much CO2 we can emit and still stay below 2°C
of warming – as per the Paris Agreement.
 How is climate sensitivity defined?
• Climate sensitivity is typically defined as the
global temperature rise following a doubling of
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere compared
to pre-industrial levels.

• Pre-industrial CO2 was about 260 parts per

million (ppm), so a doubling would be at roughly
520 ppm. Current levels of atmospheric CO2
have now exceeded 400 ppm, with the 520 ppm
threshold expected in the next 50-100 years
depending on future greenhouse gas emissions.
There are several ways of defining climate sensitivity,
depending on the timescales of interest.
Two of those are:

Transient Climate Response (TCR): The temperature increase at the instant

that atmospheric CO2 has doubled (following an increase of 1% each year)
gives us the Transient Climate Response. This is useful as what we might
expect over the current century when atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are
changing.

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS): The climate system will continue to

warm for some time after the TCR point, largely as the oceans are very slow
to respond. Therefore we can also consider the temperature increase that
would eventually occur (after hundreds or even thousands of years) when the
climate system fully adjusts to a sustained doubling of CO2 – this is called the
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. The long timescales involved here mean ECS
is arguably a less relevant measure for policy decisions around climate
change.
 How can we estimate climate sensitivity?

Historical climate records: instrumental records of warming

since the mid-19th century, combined with estimates of
greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, can be used to assess
the global temperature response to emissions of CO2 by
human activities to date.
Climate models: we can use climate models, which provide
complex simulations of the Earth’s climate system, to predict
future climate sensitivity as we don’t have observations for the
future climate. These mathematical models are built around
our understanding of the physics which underpin our climate
system.
Palaeoclimate records: ice cores and other records can be
used to estimate natural changes in temperature and
atmospheric CO2 over thousands of years. These can be used
for estimates of the past relationship between the two factors.
Transient and equilibrium climate sensitivity
 Global Warming is happening
Since 1970, rise in: Decrease in:
v Carbon Dioxide Snow extent
v Global temperatures Arctic sea ice
v Global SSTs
v Global sea level
v Tropical SSTs
v Water vapor
v Rainfall intensity
v Precipitation extratropics
v Hurricane intensity
v Drought
Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature

Nonlinear fit
Overall warming 0.75ºC
Up 0.55ºC since 1970
Heat Waves
Impacts on human
health and
mortality, economic
impacts, ecosystem
and wildlife impacts
Extremes of
temperature are
changing!

Observed trends (days)

per decade for 1951 to
2003

From Alexander et
al. (2006)
Europe summer temperatures
Exceptional heat wave and drought of 2003 was a major extreme made
more likely by global warming: 30K deaths
 Global Sea Surface Temperature: base 1901-70

°C
 Sea level is rising:
from ocean expansion and melting glaciers

Since 1993
Global sea level
has risen 37 mm
(1.46 inches)

• 60% from
expansion as ocean
temperatures rise,
• 40% from melting glaciers
Human body: sweats

Homes: Evaporative coolers (swamp coolers)

Planet Earth: Evaporation (if moisture available)

Water Holding Capacity

CLAUSIUS-CLAPEYRON’S EQN.

A basic physical law tells us that the water holding

capacity of the atmosphere goes up at about 7% per
degree Celsius increase in temperature.

Observations show that this is happening at the surface

and in lower atmosphere:

This means more moisture available for storms.

Total column water vapor is increasing:

Best estimate
of linear
trends for
global ocean
1.3±0.3%
per decade

Sig. at >99%
 Global warming
ß
Heating ­
ß
Temperature ­ & Evaporation ­
ß
water holding capacity ­

Wet gets wetter and dry gets drier

ß
atmospheric moisture ­ (if there is moisture sources nearby)
ß ß
greenhouse effect ­ & rain intensity ­
ß
Floods & Droughts
Precipitation
Observed trends (%) per
decade for 1951–2003
contribution to total
annual from very wet
days > 95th %ile.
Alexander et al 2006

Regions where recent

decades
heavy precip >> mean
precip
Changes in hurricanes in the North
Atlantic Ocean
Evidence for reality of climate change

Glaciers melting

1909

Toboggan 1858 1974

Glacier Grindelwald Glacier
Alaska Switzerland

2000

1900 2003
Alpine glacier, Austria
Declines in sea ice
and
snow cover

Runoff about 1-2

weeks earlier
 Surface melt on Greenland

Melt descending into a

moulin: a vertical shaft
carrying water to the
base of the ice sheet.

Braithwaite
Univ. Manchester
SNOW PACK: In many land and mountain areas, global warming contributes to:

• more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow,

especially in the fall and spring.
• snow melt occurs faster and sooner in the spring
• snow pack is therefore less as summer arrives
• soil moisture is less, and recycling is less
• global warming means more drying and heat stress
• the risk of drought
increases substantially
in summer
• along with heat waves
and wildfires
Drought:

3 kinds of drought

1. Meteorological: absence of rain

2. Agricultural: absence of soil moisture

3. Hydrological: absence of water in rivers,

lakes and reservoirs
 What is the PDSI ?
Palmer Drought Severity Index
A meteorological drought index developed in
1965 by Wayne Palmer to measure the
departure of the moisture supply.
Palmer based his index on the supply-and-
demand concept of the water balance equation,
taking into account more than just the
precipitation deficit at specific locations.
Developed for the United States and tested
using the regional climates of the U.S.
The objective of the PDSI was to provide
measurements of moisture conditions that were
standardized so that comparisons using the
index could be made between locations and
between months
 How the PDSI works
Responds to both wet and dry conditions.

The PDSI is calculated based on

precipitation and temperature data, as
well as the local Available Water Content
(AWC) of the soil. From the inputs, all the
basic terms of the water balance equation
can be determined, including
evapotranspiration, soil recharge, runoff,
and moisture loss from the surface layer.

Running the PDSI requires temperature,

precipitation, and soils information
 How the PDSI works
Typically computed monthly, but
in modified versions, it can be
computed on a weekly time-
scale.
Palmer Classifications
% Dry and Wet Areas over Global Land
Increasing separation due to increasing
temperatures and demand of atmosphere
for more moisture

Dry

Wet

Dry: PDSI < -3.0 Wet: PDSI > +3.0

Rising greenhouse gases are causing climate change
and arid areas are becoming drier while wet areas are
becoming wetter.

Water management:-
dealing with how to save in times of excess for times
of drought –
will be a major challenge in the future.
Karl and Trenberth 2003
Natural forcings do not account for observed 20th
century warming after 1970

Meehl et al, 2004: J. Climate.

What about variability
and
change?
El Niño
 What is El Niño?
• Warming of sea surface waters in the central
and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
• El Niño: the ocean part: Warm phase of ENSO:
El Niño - Southern Oscillation
• Southern Oscillation: the atmospheric part;
a global wave pattern
• La Niña: is the cold phase of ENSO:
Cool sea temperatures in tropical Pacific

• EN events occur about every 3-7 years

 ENSO
A natural mode of the coupled ocean-atmosphere
system
ENSO: EN and SO together:
Refers to whole cycle of warming and cooling.
ENSO events have been going on for centuries
(records in corals, and in ice layers in glaciers in
South America)
ENSO arises from air-sea interactions in the
tropical Pacific
 SSTs and SST anomalies
• There is a close link between tropical SSTs and
precipitation
• Not simple: involves total SST and its gradients
• Winds blow down pressure gradient toward
warmest waters
• Convergence over/near warmer waters
• Subsidence in cooler regions

For the most part:

•High SSTs determine where the action is!
•Low SSTs determine where it isn't!
 Southern Oscillation

In a set of papers from 1924 to 1932 , Sir Gilbert Walker and his
collaborators reported the discovery of a remarkable circulation parameter
for low latitudes which he called the ‘Southern Oscillation’. In his words, “
In general terms when the pressure is high (relative to the mean) in the
Pacific Oceans, it tends to be low in the Indian Ocean from Africa to
Australia---- rainfall varies in opposite direction to the pressure.”
• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a standardized index based on the observed
sea level pressure (SLP) differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.

• The SOI is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring
between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern
Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niña episodes.

• The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and
above-normal air pressure at Darwin.
Southern Oscillation Index correlated with mean sea level pressure.
Calculation of SOI
• Clearly the series of surface pressure anomalies at the two stations are generally
out of phase. The difference makes a more robust index.

• Thus the difference of the normalized surface pressure between the east and
west (generally taken as between Tahiti and Darwin)--this difference is
conventionally called the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).
• In fact, the Southern Oscillation index is a measure of the strength of the Walker
circulation.

• When the Walker circulation is strong, the pressure in the west is relatively low and
the pressure in the east is relatively high. When the Walker circulation is weak, the
pressure in the west is relatively high and the pressure in the east is relatively low.
 Anomalous pressure

Weak Walker Circulation

Strong Walker circulation

ENSO Impacts
Occur around the world
Droughts (e.g. Australia,
Africa, Brazil, Indonesia)
Floods (e.g. Peru,
southern USA)
Climate change & other environmental issues are inter-linked
World Population 814.21 Crores
 Energy Food

Biodiversity
Water
Agricultural Lands Coastal Forest Freshwater Arid Lands
Zones Lands Systems Grasslands

Food and Fiber Production

Provision of Clean and Sufficient Water
Maintenance of Biodiversity
Maintenance of Human Health
Storage and cycling of Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus

Climate change will affect the ability of ecological systems to provide essential ecological
goods and services
 Food
production
needs to double
to meet the
needs of an
additional 3
billion people in
the next 30
years

Climate change is projected to

decrease agricultural
productivity in the tropics and
sub-tropics
Wood fuel is the only
source of fuel for one
third of the world’s
population

Wood demand will double

in next 50 years

Climate change is projected to increase

forest productivity, but forest
management will become more difficult,
due to an increase in pests and fires
 Climate
change is
Water Services projected to
decrease
water
availability in
many arid
and semi-arid
regions

One third of the world’s The population facing water

population is now subject scarcity will more than
to water scarcity double over the next 30
years
 Estimated 10-15% of
the world’s species
could become extinct
over the next 30 years

Biodiversity underlies all

Climate change will
ecological goods and
services exacerbate the loss of
biodiversity
The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet
 Global warming actions

There are uncertainties about how climate will change.

But climate will change.
And it could be very disruptive.
There will be substantial costs incurred;
-often by innocent people and countries

The issue is directly linked to

v fossil fuel energy use.
v security (foreign oil imports).
v sustainability.
Oil supplies will be exceeded by demand sooner or later
and long before we run out.
 IPCC Assessment

Floods, land slides, mudslides, impacts - people, property, costs

drinking water, agricultural productivity, hydropower, wildfires

Intense 90-99%

Precipitation
Drought
Tropical 66-90%
Cyclones
impacts – people, economic systems, property, ecology
McBean, G., 2005
 Dealing with Global Climate Change

o To avoid the worst of climate change, CO2 levels

must be stabilized at 550ppm
• 50% higher than current levels
o Two ways to attempt to manage climate change
• Mitigation
• Focuses on limiting greenhouse gas emissions to moderate
global climate change
• Adaptation
• Focuses on learning to live with to the environmental changes
and societal consequences brought about by global climate
change
 Dealing with Global Climate
Change- Mitigation

o Locate/invent alternative fuels to fossil fuels

o Increase efficiency of cars and trucks
o Sequestering carbon before it is emitted
o Plant and Maintain trees to naturally sequester
carbon
 Dealing with Global Climate Change-
Adaptation

o Rising sea levels and coastal

populations
• Move inland
• Construct dikes and levees
o Adapt to shifting agricultural zones
o NYC sewer line
 Ozone Depletion
o Stratospheric ozone
o UV light
o Chemical processes
o Environmental effects
o Solutions
 Ozone shield
o 99% of all UV is absorbed
(UVC and most UVB)
o UVA is not affected by
ozone
Production of ozone
Formation and destruction of ozone
Usage
2003
 Environmental effects
o UV damage to DNA
o Skin cancer
o Cataracts
o Suppression of immune system
o Ecosystem:
o Primary producers
o Food chains
o Development in aquatic larva
 Managing ozone depletion
o Montreal protocol, Sept 1987–
Production of CFC elimination
o Economic gap
o Replacements: HFC and HCFC
o Shorter lifetime, less reactive
o Collection and reuse (no
venting)
o Expensive replacements
 Difference between climate mitigation and adaptation

Climate Mitigation:

• Climate mitigation refers to efforts and strategies aimed at reducing or

preventing the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the
atmosphere. These gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane
(CH4), are responsible for the greenhouse effect and global warming.

• The primary goal of climate mitigation is to limit or reduce the rate of

global warming and slow down the process of climate change. By
reducing GHG emissions, mitigation aims to minimize the long-term
impacts of climate change.

• Examples: Mitigation strategies include transitioning to renewable

energy sources, improving energy efficiency, afforestation (planting trees
to absorb CO2), and adopting sustainable land use practices.
International agreements like the Paris Agreement focus on mitigation
targets.
Climate Adaptation:

• Climate adaptation refers to strategies and actions taken to adjust to the

changing climate and to minimize the negative impacts of climate change
on human societies, ecosystems, and infrastructure.

• The primary goal of climate adaptation is to build resilience and adapt to

the current and anticipated impacts of climate change. It involves
adjusting to the changing conditions rather than directly reducing GHG
emissions.

• Examples: Adaptation strategies may include building stronger

infrastructure to withstand extreme weather events, developing drought-
resistant crops, implementing flood control measures, creating early
warning systems, and designing urban planning to accommodate rising
sea levels and increased temperatures.
 Human Activities

o Industrialization
o CO2 increased 31%, CH4 inc 151%, N2O inc 17% over since pre-
industrial times.
o 40% of excess CO2 absorbed by oceans
o Methane a big problem
 Evidence of Climate Change
o Avg global temperature has climbed 0.6oC over last century
o Arctic sea ice is 40% thinner, Antarctic glaciers are retreating 50m/yr.
o Alpine glaciers are retreating
o Ocean acidification
o Sea level has risen
o Changes in animal behavior, breeding cycles
o Storm frequency and intensity are increasing
 Reduction of Carbon Emissions

o Burn less fossil fuel: Turn down your thermostat

o Plant Trees for shade and CO2 uptake
o Insulate your house
o Replace old appliances
o Use compact fluorescence light bulbs
o Use renewable energy
Building resilience before it is too late
“Without further commitments and action to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, the world is likely to warm by
more than 3°C above the preindustrial climate.

Even with the current mitigation commitments and

pledges fully implemented, there is roughly a 20 percent
likelihood of exceeding 4°C by 2100”
To implement adaptation strategies
we need to

Create and increase adaptation opportunities

Overcomes adaptation constraints
Reduce adaptation limits
 Adaptation Opportunities
Opportunities1 are defined as factors that make it
easier to plan and implement adaptation actions,
that expand adaptation options, or that provide
ancillary co-benefits.

Any difference between adaptation OPTIONS and

OPPORTUNITIES?
 Adaptation Opportunities
(1)Awareness raising through
education & communication
(2)Human and Institutional capacity
building: preparedness, resources
provision, etc.
(3)Tools for decision-making: risk &
vulnerability assessments, modeling,
etc.
(4)Integrating and mainstreaming
climate adaptation into sustainable
development policy, resource and
infrastructure planning, and design
standards;
(5)Learning & knowledge
management: monitoring, modelling,
assessments, etc
(6)Research development and
Innovation
 Any difference between adaptation
barrier, constraint, obstacle, and limit?

Adaptation constraint1 = adaptation barrier or obstacle

•Constraints1 are defined as factors that make it harder
to plan and implement adaptation actions
•This could include reductions in the range of adaptation
options that can be implemented, increases in the costs
of implementation, or reduced efficacy of selected
options with respect to achieving adaptation objectives.
•However, a constraint alone doesn’t mean adaptation is
not possible or that one’s objectives can’t be achieved.
 Any difference between adaptation
barrier, constraint, obstacle, and limit?
Types of constraints include
1)Economic - existing livelihoods, economic structures and economic mobility;
2)Social and cultural - social norms, identity, place attachment, beliefs, worldviews,
values, awareness, education, social justice, and social support;
3)Human capacity - individual, organizational, and societal capabilities to set and
achieve adaptation objectives over time including training, education, skill development;
4)Governance, Institutions & Policy - existing laws, regulations, procedural
requirements, governance scope, effectiveness, institutional arrangements, adaptive
capacity, and absorption capacity;
5)Financial - lack of financial resources;
6)Information/ Awareness/ Technology - lack of awareness or access to information
or technology;
7)Physical - presence of physical barriers; and
8)Biological - temperature, precipitation, salinity, acidity, intensity and frequency of
extreme events including storms, drought and wind.
 Any difference between adaptation
barrier, constraint, obstacle, and limit?
A Limit1 is defined as the point at which actor’s objectives or
natural system’s needs cannot be secured from intolerable
risks through adaptive actions.
•Limit is more restrictive in that it means adaptation options
that cannot be implemented over a given time horizon to
achieve one or more management objectives, maintain values,
or sustain natural systems.
•This implies that certain objectives, practices, or livelihoods as
well as natural systems may not be sustainable in a
changing climate, resulting in deliberate or involuntary
system transformations.
 Any difference between adaptation
barrier, constraint, obstacle, and limit?

Limits are such as:

(1)Biophysical - temperature,
precipitation, salinity, acidity, intensity
and frequency of extreme events
including storms, drought and wind
(2)Social/cultural - social norms,
identity, place attachment, beliefs,
worldviews, values, awareness,
education, social justice, and social
support.
 Effects of Mitigation on Adaptation
Effects of mitigation and adaptation vary over time and place
•Mitigation: global benefits, needs longer time to be noticeable
•Adaptation: local & regional benefits, effects can be immediate;
especially addressing vulnerabilities, adaptation is necessary because
even the most stringent mitigation efforts cannot avoid further
climate change in the next few decades.
•However, mitigation is necessary because reliance on adaptation alone
could eventually lead to very high social, environmental and economic
costs
•Higher rates and/or magnitudes of climate change would reduce
effectiveness of certain adaptation options and hence contribute to
higher adaptation costs.
•Mitigation efforts may reduce the adaptation limits, increase
adaptive capacity
Policymaking in a
Changing Climate
 Focus of this
presentation
1. The capacity of people to
adapt; AND
2. The capacity of policy to
be adaptive
 Canada and India
Agriculture and Water Resources Management

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005

 Canada and India
Agriculture and Water Resources Management

Source: IWMI, 2004

 Canadian Prairies:
A long history of drought
o 1906
o 1936-38
• Quarter million people
displaced
o 1961
o 1976-77
o 1980
o 1984-85
o 1988
o 2001-2003
• “the worst ever?”
• $3.6 B Ag /$5.8 B GDP
• 41,000 jobs lost
 Way forward
• Water conservation and efficiency: Implementing water conservation practices and
technologies can help reduce water consumption during periods of drought. This
includes using low-flow fixtures, optimizing irrigation systems, and promoting
water-efficient agriculture and industry.

• Diversification of water sources: Diversifying water sources can help ensure a more
reliable supply of water during droughts. This can involve the development of
alternative water sources such as recycled water, rainwater harvesting, and even
desalination in coastal regions.

• Improved water management: Effective water management is crucial in adapting to

drought conditions. This includes developing and implementing water-use
restrictions and regulations, as well as improving water allocation and distribution
systems to ensure a fair and equitable supply during drought periods.

• Drought monitoring and early warning systems: Developing and maintaining

effective drought monitoring and early warning systems can help provide timely
information to governments, communities, and businesses. This information allows
for better preparedness and response to drought events.
• Agricultural practices: Promoting drought-resistant crop varieties, adjusting
planting schedules, and employing soil moisture conservation techniques can
help Canadian farmers adapt to drought conditions and reduce crop losses.

• Ecosystem restoration and conservation: Protecting and restoring natural

ecosystems can help maintain healthy watersheds and improve water retention
in the soil, reducing the severity of drought impacts.

• Public awareness and education: Educating the public about water conservation
and the importance of sustainable water use is essential in adapting to drought
conditions. Public support for water-saving initiatives is critical.

• Infrastructure improvements: Upgrading and modernizing water infrastructure,

including reservoirs, can help store and manage water resources more
effectively, which can be crucial during droughts.

• Research and innovation: Investing in research and innovation to develop new

technologies and strategies for drought adaptation is essential for long-term
resilience.
 Adaptive Capacity of
People and Policies Is Vulnerability reduced and
Resilience enhanced or
Maintained?
Adaptive
Adaptive Capacity Capacity of
of Policy People

Economic Resources
Policy
Adaptive Policy Information & Skills
Instruments
Mechanisms Technology
Short-term Long-term
Infrastructure
Economic For anticipated Coping Adaptation
conditions Institutions
Regulatory Measures Measures
Equity
Direct Expenditures For unanticipated
Institutional conditions
Smit et al. 2001

Exposure
(weather and non-weather
related)

Shocks Stresses
 India
Vulnerability to Climate Change
o Climate change is expected to disproportionately impact
developing countries whose economies are closely tied to
climate-sensitive sectors, like agriculture and which are
already facing multiple stresses due to population growth,
urbanization, industrialization, and globalization.
o In the tropics and subtropics, where some crops are near their
maximum temperature tolerance and where rain-fed agriculture
dominates, yields are likely to decrease for even small changes
in climate, which could lead to an increased risk of inadequate
food supply.

Source: Kelkar (2006), [Link]

 India
Vulnerability to Climate Change
o Districts in western Rajasthan, southern
Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra,
northern Karnataka, northern Andhra
Pradesh, and southern Bihar are highly
vulnerable to climate change in the
context of economic globalization.
o Numerous physical and socio-economic
factors come into play in enhancing or
constraining the current capacity of
farmers to cope with adverse changes.
• e.g. cropping patterns, crop
diversification, and shifts to drought-
/salt-resistant varieties
• e.g. ownership of assets, access to
services, and infrastructural support
Figure 3.4 Vulnerability of Indian agriculture
to climate change
Source TERI (2003): In Kelkar (2006)
Determinants of adaptive capacity (from Smit et al., 2001).

Determinant Explanation
Economic Greater economic resources increase adaptive capacity
Lack of financial resources limits adaptation options
resources
Technology Lack of technology limits range of potential adaptation options
Less technologically advanced regions are less likely to develop
and/or implement technological adaptations
Information Lack of informed, skilled and trained personnel reduces adaptive
capacity
and skills Greater access to information increases likelihood of timely and
appropriate adaptation
Infrastructure Greater variety of infrastructure can enhance adaptive capacity,
since it provides more options
Characteristics and location of infrastructure also affect adaptive
capacity

Institutions Well-developed social institutions help to reduce impacts of

climate-related risks, and therefore increase adaptive capacity
Policies and regulations have constrain or enhance adaptive
capacity
Equity Equitable distribution of resources increases adaptive capacity
Both availability of, and entitlement to, resources is important

Smit, B., Pilifosova, O., Burton I., Challenger B., Huq S., Klein R.J.T. and Yohe, G. (2001): Adaptation to climate change in the
context of sustainable development and equity; in Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, (ed.) J.J.
McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A.
 Policy Failures
o Externalities (market failure mechanisms from micro-economic
theory)
o Implementation failures (insufficient resources, legitimacy)
o Inaccurate diagnosis of the problem
o Others……
o Experience demonstrates that policies crafted to operate
within a certain range of conditions are often faced with
unexpected challenges outside of that range. The result is
that many policies have unintended impacts and don’t
accomplish their goals.
WORK FLOW