Understanding the Money Supply Process
Understanding the Money Supply Process
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4.1 Introduction
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Cont’d
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The four players in the money supply process
deposits in banks.
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4.2 The central bank balance sheet and the monetary
base
The operation of the Fed and its monetary policy affect its
balance sheet - its holdings of assets and liabilities.
Just as any other bank has a balance sheet that lists its assets
and liabilities, so does the central bank
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Balance Sheet of banks other than NB
Asset (Use of funds Liabilities ( Source of funds
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balance sheet of general
Public
Asset Liabilities
-securities Consumer loan(borrowing) from
Demand deposit bans
Or other sources
Currency other liabilities
Saving /time
deposits
Other non financial Capital (Net worth)
asset
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Liabilities of CB(NBE)
they are an important part of the money supply story,
Because increases in either or both will lead to an increase in the money
supply
1. Central bank notes (currency) outstanding….issued BY CB
Is the amount of this currency that is in the hands of the
public( pieces of paper/notes in your wallet).
(Currency held by depository institutions is also a liability of the
NBE, but is counted as part of the reserves liabilities .)
referred to as the monetary liabilities of the Central bank
Treasury currency(coins)= the Treasury's monetary liabilities
(Treasury currency in circulation …Treasury liabilities
Currency in circulation (C )=Treasury currency + Central bank
currency 11
2. Reserves
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All banks have an account at the Central bank in
which they hold deposits.
Reserves are assets for the banks but liabilities for the
Fed,
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Total reserves can be divided into two categories:
For example, the Fed might require that for every birr of
deposits at a depository institution, a certain fraction (say,
10 cents) must be held as reserves.
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Cont’d
2. Discount loans
The interest rate charged banks for these loans is called the
discount rate.
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4. Gold and SDR certificate accounts
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6. Other Federal Reserve assets.
These include deposits and bonds denominated in foreign
currencies as well as physical goods such as computers,
office equipment, and buildings owned by the Central bank
4.2.2 Monetary Base
The monetary base is an important part of the money
supply because increases in it will lead to a multiple
increase in the money supply
Is also high –powered money
Is the sum monetary liabilities of the Central bank n and
treasury monetary liabilities
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MB = (Central bank notes(currency) + Treasury currency
(coin) + reserves = C + R
Specifically, Central bank notes (Currency) and reserves
equal the sum of all the Central bank assets minus all the
other Central bank liabilities:
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4.2.3 CONTROL OF THE MONETARY BASE
The Central bank exercises control over the monetary base
via its purchases or sales of government securities in the
open market, called open market operations, and through
its extension of discount loans to banks.
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Open Market Purchase from a Bank
The bank will either deposit the check in its account with the
Fed or cash it in for currency, which will be counted as vault
cash.
Either action means that the bank will find itself with
$100 more reserves and a reduction in its holdings of
securities of $100.
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The T-account
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Cont’d
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Cont’d
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Cont’d
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Cont’d
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The net result of the Fed’s open market purchase from the non-bank
public is identical to the effect of its open market purchase from a
bank:
Reserves increase by the amount of the open market purchase, and
the monetary base increases by the same amount.
The analysis reveals that the effect of an open market
purchase on reserves depends on whether the seller of the
bonds keeps the proceeds from the sale in currency or in
deposits.
If the proceeds are kept in Currency, the open market
purchase has no effect on reserves; if the proceeds are kept
as deposits, reserves increase by the amount of the open
market purchase 31
The effect of an open market purchase on
the monetary base, however, is always the
same (the monetary base increases by the
amount of the purchase) whether the seller
of the bonds keeps the proceeds in deposits
or in currency.
The impact of an open market purchase on
reserves is much more uncertain than its
impact on the monetary base.
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Cont’d
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Cont’d
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2. Open Market Sale
Reduces the monetary base by the amount of the sale
If the Central bank sells $100 of bonds to a bank or the nonbank public;
the monetary base will decline by $100. For example, if the Central
bank sells the bonds to an individual who pays for them with currency,
the buyer exchanges $100 of currency for $100 of bonds, and the
resulting T-account is
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T-Account
NONBANK PUBLIC FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
Currency - $100
The effect of the open market sale of $100 of bonds is to reduce the
monetary base by an equal amount, although reserves remain
unchanged
in cases in which the buyer of the bonds is a bank or the buyer pays for
the bonds with a check written on a checkable deposit account at a
local bank lead to the same $100 reduction in the monetary base(the
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level of reserves has fallen by $100)
Shifts from Deposits into Currency
Even if the Fed does not conduct open market
operations, a shift from deposits to currency will
affect the reserves in the banking system. However,
such a shift will have no effect on the monetary base,
another reason why the Fed/NB has more control over
the monetary base than over reserves.
When a customer who opened the at national banks
decides to withdraw the $100 balance in cash and
vows never to deposit it in a bank again. The effect
on the T-account of the nonbank public is:
The net effect on the monetary liabilities of the Fed
is a wash; the monetary base is unaffected by
customers’ disgust at the banking system. But
reserves are affected. Random fluctuations of
reserves can occur as a result of random shifts into
currency and out of deposits, and vice versa
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NONBANK PUBLIC
Asset Liabilities
Checkable deposits -100
Currency +100
BANKING System
Asset Liabilities
Reserves -100 Checkable deposits -100
However, if a bank pays off a loan from the Fed, thereby reducing its
borrowings from the Fed by $100. he net effect on the monetary
liabilities of the Fed, and hence on the monetary
base, is then a reduction of $100. as T- account represented as follows
Banking system Federal Reserve system
Asset Liabilities Asset Liabilities
Reserves -$100 Discount loan Discount Reserves -$100
-100 Loan -100
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4.2.4 Overview of the Central Bank's
Ability to Control the Monetary Base
Fed has complete control of the monetary base
through its open market operations and discount
loan.
But Two important items that are not controlled by
the Fed but affect the monetary base are float and
Treasury deposits at the Fed. float and Treasury
deposits undergo substantial short-run variations.
Although float and Treasury deposits with the Fed
undergo substantial short-run fluctuations, which
complicate control of the monetary base, they do
not prevent the Fed from accurately controlling it
Float = cash items in a process of collection minus
deferred/delayed Availability cash items
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4.3 Multiple deposit creation: a simple model
Creation of credit means that the commercial banks by taking
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Cont’d
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4.3.1 Deposit Creation: The Single Bank
Suppose that the $100 open market purchase described earlier was
conducted with the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia.
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Let's say that the bank decides to make a loan equal
in amount to the $100 increase in excess reserves
Assume that the bank does not want to hold
excess reserves because it earns no interest on
them. In such cases, if the bank makes the loan, it
sets up a checking account for the borrower and
puts the proceeds of the loan into this account.
In this way, the bank alters its balance sheet by
increasing its liabilities by $100 of checkable
deposits and at the same time increasing its assets
by the $100 loan. The T-account looks like this.
Commercial Bank of Ethiopia
Asset Liabilities
Securities -$100 Checkable deposits +$100
Reserves +$100
Loans +100 45
The bank has created checkable deposits by its act of lending.
Because checkable deposits are part of the money supply,
the bank’s act of lending has in fact created money.
In its current balance sheet position, the Commercial Bank
of Ethiopia still has excess reserves and so might want to
make additional loans. However, these reserves will not
stay at the bank for very long
The borrower took out a loan not to leave $100 idle at the
Commercial Bank of Ethiopia but to purchase goods and
services from other individuals and corporations. When
the borrower makes these purchases by writing checks,
they will be deposited at other banks, and the $100 of
reserves will leave the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia
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Asset Liabilities
The final T-account
Securities -$100 of the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia is
Loans +$100
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Multiple deposit creation by banking system
Expansion of banking systems creates multiple deposit. When previous
loan made by CBE deposited at Wegagen bank …that this bank and all
other banks hold no excess reserves. Wegagen's T-account becomes
Wegagen bank
Asset Liabilities
Reserves +$100 Checkable deposits +$100
If the required reserve ratio is 10%, this bank will now find itself with
a $10 increase in required reserves, leaving it $90 of excess reserves.
Because Wegagen Bank CBE does not want to hold on to excess
reserves, it will make loans for the entire amount.
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Its loans increase by 90 and checkable deposits will increase
by $100.
Wegagen Bank T-account
Assset Liabilites
Reserve +10 Checkable deposit 100
Loans +90
If the money spent by the borrower to whom Wegagen bank lent the $90 is
deposited in another bank such as Awash I. bank …Awash T- account will be
Asset liabilities
Reserves Checkable deposits
+$90 $90
Checkable deposit in banking system incease by 90 and a total increase of
$190 ($100 at Bank wegagen plus $90 at Bank Awash).( 100 wegagen+ 90
Awash)
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Awash bank will want to modify its balance sheet further. It
must keep 10% of $90 ($9) as required reserves and has 90%
of $90 ($81) in excess reserves and so can make loans of this
amount. Bank B will make an $81 loan to a borrower, who
spends the proceeds from the loan.
Awash banks’ T-account will be
ASSET LAIBILITIES
Reserves +9 Checkable deposit +90
Loan +81
The $81 spent by the borrower from Awash International Bank will be
deposited in another bank (Dashen Bank). Consequently, from the
initial $100 increase of reserves in the banking system, the total
increase of checkable deposits in the system so far is $271 (=$100
+$90 + $81)
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Following the same reasoning, if all banks make loans for the full amount
of their excess reserves, further increments in checkable deposits will
continue (at Dashen Bank, Abyssinia Bank, United Bank, and so on), as
depicted in Table 4.3. Therefore, the total increase in deposits from the
initial $100 increase in reserves will be $1000: The increase is tenfold,
the reciprocal of the 0.10 reserve requirement. Multiple deposit creation
process would continue until ER gone /used up (ER=0).
If the banks choose to invest their excess reserves in
securities, the result is the same. If Wegagen Bank had
taken its excess reserves and purchased securities instead of
making loans, the he effect on deposit expansion is the
same and its T-account would have looked like this:
WEGAGEN BANK
Asset Liabilities
Reserves +$10 Checkable deposit
+$100
Securities +$90
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ABLE 4.3 Creation of Deposits (assuming 10 percent
reserve requirement and a $100 increase in reserves )
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The multiple increases in deposits generated from an
increase in the banking system's reserves is called the
simple deposit multiplier. In our example with a 10 percent
required reserve ratio, the simple deposit multiplier is 10.
More generally, the simple deposit multiplier equals the
reciprocal of the required reserve ratio, expressed as a
fraction (10 = 1/0.10), so the formula for the multiple
expansions of deposits can be written as
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When the Central Bank withdraws reserves(
by OMO SALE OF Securities) from the
banking system, there should be a multiple
contraction of deposits. … the same manner
1000 multiple contraction of deposits takes
place……..( Reading assignment )
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Deriving the Formula for Multiple Deposit
Creation(Simple deposit multiplier
Our that banks do not hold on to any assumption excess
reserves means that the RR=R
RR= r* D … r = required reserve ratio
Substituting r * D for RR in the first equation,
R = r*D and dividing both sides of the preceding equation by r
gives us &taking delta for both sides to indicate change
This derivation provides us with another way of looking at the
multiple creations of deposits because it forces us to look
directly at the banking system as a whole rather than one
bank at a time
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cont’d
For the banking system as a whole, deposit creation
(or contraction) will stop only when all excess
reserves in the banking system are gone;
the banking system will be in equilibrium when the
total amount of required reserves equals the total
amount of reserves, as seen in the equation RR = R,
ER = 0).
Accordingly, a given level of reserves in the banking
system determines the level of checkable deposits
when the banking system is in equilibrium (ER = 0);
put another way, the given level of reserves supports a
given level of checkable deposits.
NB: Under multiple deposit creation model, changes in the public's
holdings of currency and banks' holdings of excess reserves have
not effect on deposit creation 56
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Critique of the simple model
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The total increase in checkable deposits is only $100-
considerably less than the $1000 we calculated. So if some
proceeds from loans are used to raise the holdings of
currency, checkable deposits will not increase by as much as
our streamlined model of multiple deposit creation tells us.
Another situation ignored in our model is one in which banks
do not make loans or buy securities in the full amount of
their excess reserves.
If Wegagen Bank decides to hold on to all $90 of its excess
reserves, no deposits would be made in Awash International
Bank, and this would also stop the deposit creation process.
The total increase in deposits would again be only $100 and
not the $1000 increase in our example. Hence if banks choose
to hold all or some of their excess reserves, the full
expansion of deposits predicted by the simple model multiple
deposits creation does not occur
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Our examples rightly indicate that the Central Bank is not the
only player whose behavior influences the level of deposits
and therefore the money supply.
Banks' decisions regarding the amount of excess reserves they
wish to hold and
depositors' decisions regarding how much currency to hold can
cause the money supply to change
Central banks’ power of setting the required reserve ratio and
the level reserves,/OMO/ , Credit control ,
Their detail interaction described under the money supply
model topic
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The Money Supply Model
This model assumes the important role of depositors and
banks.
In deriving a model of a money supply process, we consider
a simple definition of money (C + D) = M1.
The central bank can control the monetary base better than it
control reserves, link the money supply ( ) to monetary
base (MB).
∆
Where;
∆
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our model links changes in the money supply to changes in
the monetary base. This link is achieved by deriving a
money multiplier (a ratio that relates the change in the
money supply to a given change in the monetary base).
The variable m is the money multiplier, which tells us how
much the money supply changes for a given change in the
monetary base MB. This multiplier tells us what multiple of
the monetary base is transformed into the money supply.
Because the money multiplier is larger than 1. a $1 change
in the monetary base leads to more than a $1 change in
the money supply.
The money multiplier reflects the effect on the money
supply of other factors besides the monetary base,
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Determinants of money multiplier
Depositors' decisions about their holdings of currency
and checkable deposits are one set of factors affecting
the money multiplier
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Assume that the desired level of currency & excess reserve grows
proportionally with checkable deposit. the ratios of these
items to checkable deposits are constants in equilibrium:
c = C / D - currency ratio
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Cont’d
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Cont’d
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It reveals the amount of the monetary base needed to support the
existing amounts of checkable deposits, currency, and excess
reserves
An increase in the monetary base that goes into currency is not
multiplied, This occurs because such an increase leads to an
identical increase in the right-hand side of the equation with no
change occurring in D.
whereas an increase that goes into supporting deposits is
multiplied
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Cont’d
If the Fed injects reserves into the banking system and they
are held as excess reserves, there will be no effect on deposits
or currency and hence no effect on the money supply.
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Cont’d
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Cont’d
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Factors That Determine the Money
Multiplier
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Cont’d
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Changes in the Currency Ratio (c)
An increase in {C/D} means that depositors are converting
some of their checkable deposits into currency.
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Changes in the Excess Reserves Ration {ER/D}=e