See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: [Link]

net/publication/278681735

Analysis of Extreme High Temperature Conditions over Uttar

Pradesh, India

Chapter · January 2015

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-10217-7_26

CITATION READS
1 5,483

2 authors, including:

Kamaljit Ray
Ministry of Earth Sciences
47 PUBLICATIONS 341 CITATIONS

SEE PROFILE

Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:

SAARC STORM Project View project

Heavy rainfall studies View project

All content following this page was uploaded by Kamaljit Ray on 29 June 2015.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

 Analysis of Extreme High
Temperature Conditions over
Uttar Pradesh, India
Ramesh Chand and Kamaljit Ray*
India Meteorological Department, Lodhi Road, New Delhi – 110003
* kamaljit_ray@[Link]

1. Introduction
The state of Uttar Pradesh (Fig. 1) is in the heart of Indo-Gangetic plain
with river Ganges flowing right through it, Himalayas to the north and the
Chota Nagpur plateau and the Vindhya hills to the south. The climate of Uttar
Pradesh varies from temperate in eastern Uttar Pradesh, extreme in western
UP to semi arid in Bundelkhand and Agra zone. Therefore it is extremely
difficult to categorize it in a particular climatic frame. Nevertheless, summers
are very hot and winters are chilly. Generally heat waves develop in the north
west parts of India or over the northern parts of Pakistan and expand into the
neighbouring subdivisions of the country including Uttar Pradesh. Heat wave
may also develop in situ over the region in case of development of an upper-air
anticyclone circulation. The temperatures start to increase over Uttar Pradesh
in March and by April the land area becomes hot with day time maximum
temperature reaching about 40°C at many locations. During this season the
range of maximum and minimum temperatures is found to be more than 15°C
at many stations. Maximum temperatures rise sharply exceeding 45°C by the
end of May and early June, resulting in harsh summers particularly over SW-
U.P. (Bundelkhand). Heat waves form when high pressure aloft (3000-7600
metres) strengthens and remains over a region for several days to several
weeks. Under high pressure, the air subsides (sinks) toward the surface. This
sinking air acts as a dome capping the atmosphere. This cap helps to trap heat
instead of allowing it to lift. This results in a continuous build-up of heat at the
surface that is experienced as a heat wave.
Extreme positive departures from the normal maximum temperature
result in heat waves during the summer season (De et al., 2005). These are
 Analysis of Extreme High Temperature Conditions 365

Fig. 1: Map of Uttar Pradesh.

called heat waves, because the spells of hot weather are often seen to move
from one region to another (Chaudhury et al., 2000). Over India, heat waves
are prominent extreme temperature events occurring during the pre-monsoon
season (April to June). During the period 1901 to 2010, around 23 severe heat
wave conditions have occurred in India, resulting in death of 8869 persons
and a damage of 144 million US dollar (EMDAT, 2011). One of the predicted
outcomes of the global warming is the increase in frequency of extreme events,
including heat waves, etc. across different parts of the world on varying scale/
intensity (Srivastava et al., 2001; Ray et al., 2009; Manton, 2010). Hence,
understanding the pattern and frequency of heat waves is essential for better
forecasting and management of the extreme temperature conditions.
Atri et al. (2010) in climate profile of India analysed data for the period
1901-2009 and suggested that annual mean temperature for the country as
a whole has risen by 0.56°C (Fig. 2) over the period. It may be mentioned
that annual mean temperature has been generally above normal (normal based
on period, 1961-1990) since 1990. This warming is primarily due to rise in
maximum temperature across the country, over larger parts of the data set.
However, since 1990, minimum temperature is steadily rising and rate of its
366 Ramesh Chand and Kamaljit Ray

rise is slightly more than that of maximum temperature (IMD Annual Climate
Summary, 2009). Warming trend over globe of the order of 0.74°C has been
reported by IPCC (2007). Climate variability and occurrence of extreme
weather events are the major concerns linked to global warming. In a study,
Hingane et al. (1985) had prepared an all-India mean series of seasonal and
annual surface air temperatures for a long-term trend studies, using data for
1901-82. The analysis indicated a significant warming of 0.4°C per 100 years
in mean annual temperature of the country as a whole. The gridded 30 years
moving averages of mean maximum temperatures over Gujarat state (Ray
et al., 2009) also indicated an increase of 0.11°C during the period 1969-
2005. Ray et al. (2013) studied heat waves over Gujarat state and observed
that the number of moderate heat wave days and severe heat wave days were
highest in the last decade (2001-2010) as compared to earlier three decades. In
this paper an attempt has been made to study heat wave during March, April,
May and June for five stations of Uttar Pradesh. This study was undertaken to
analyze the decadal climatology of extreme high temperature conditions over
Uttar Pradesh. The stations chosen were Allahabad, Gorakhpur, Varanasi,
Lucknow and Bareilly.

2. Data and Methodology

Maximum temperature data for summer months (March, April, May and
June) for the period 1980 to 2010 was obtained from National Data Centre
of ADGM(R) Pune office for five stations in Uttar Pradesh. For synoptic
analysis, synoptic charts were downloaded from NCEP website ([Link].
[Link]/psd/data/reanalysis/[Link]).
Heat wave is considered only when the maximum temperature of a station
reaches at least 40°C for plains and at least 30°C for hilly regions. It has been
defined in following three categories:
1. First category: When normal maximum temperature of a station is less
than or equal to 40°C, heat wave (HW) may be considered, if the maximum
temperature departure from normal is 5°C to 6° and severe heat wave
(SHW) may be considered if the departure from normal is 7ºC or more.
2. Second category: When normal maximum temperature of a station is
more than 40°C than heat wave (HW) may be considered if maximum
temperature departure from normal is 4ºC to 5ºC and severe heat wave
(SHW) if the departure from normal is 6ºC or more.
3. Third category: When actual maximum temperature remains 45ºC or
more irrespective of normal maximum temperature, heat wave should be
declared.
As per the above criterion heat waves days and severe heat wave days
were calculated for five stations in Uttar Pradesh for 30 years period (1980-
2010).
 Analysis of Extreme High Temperature Conditions 367

3. Results and Discussion

3.1 Study of Decadal Pattern
The total number of heat waves and severe heat wave days in the three decades
for five IMD stations are shown in Table 1. The decadal analysis indicates
that the number of moderate heat wave days are highest in the last decade
as compared to earlier two decades in most of the stations. The districts like
Allahabad, Gorakhpur, Varanasi and Lucknow show increase in moderate heat
waves in the last decade and Varanasi indicates appreciable increase in severe
heat wave days in the last decade (2000-2010). Bareilly does not indicate an
increase in the heat waves in the last decade. If we see the total heat wave days
(MHW + SHW), then except for Bareilly it is highest in the last decade for
all stations. The frequency of yearly heat wave days was calculated from total
heat wave days in the 30-year period. It was seen that out of the five stations
considered Allahabad has the highest frequency of heat waves (11 days per
year) followed by Gorakhpur and Varanasi (seven days per year) and then
Lucknow and Bareilly (five days each per year). This shows plains and eastern
parts of Uttar Pradesh are more prone to heat waves.
Table 1: Decadal frequency of MHW and SHW for five stations of Uttar Pradesh

Moderate heat wave (MHW) Severe heat wave (SHW)

Stations/ 1981 to 1991 to 2001 to 1981 to 1991 to 2001 to
Decades 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010
Allahabad 58 91 145 12 12 7
Varanasi 27 46 121 6 2 17
Gorakhpur 59 56 78 19 4 3
Lucknow 39 40 72 6 0 5
Bareilly 28 58 42 8 2 3

Table 2 gives the year-wise frequency of MHW and SHW days in the last
decade (2001 to 2010). In the year 2010, heat wave prevailed on 45 days in
Varanasi, which was the highest number of heat wave days recorded in the
past 30 years (1980-2010). Moderate heat wave prevailed on 36 days and
severe heat wave on nine days. Similarly in Allahabad heat wave prevailed on
29 days in 2004 followed by 27 days in 2005 and 2010. Lucknow recorded
MHW on 19 days in the year 2010; Bareilly recorded MHW on 16 days and
Gorakhpur on 18 days. In the last decade maximum heat wave days were
recorded in 2010 followed by 2005 and 2004 for Uttar Pradesh as a whole.
Varanasi recorded highest number of severe heat wave days (nine) in 2010,
followed by five days in 2005. Figure 2 shows the number of heat wave days
in last 30 years for all five stations. Highest numbers of heat wave days were
realized in 2010 for Varanasi and Lucknow in the past 30 years. Allahabad
recorded highest heat wave days in 2004 followed by 2005 and 2010. Except
for Bareilly rest all stations show an increase in heat wave days in the last
decade.
 368

Table 2: Year-wise frequency of MHW and SHW days in the last decade (2001 to 2010)

Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Station MHW SHW MHW SHW MHW SHW MHW SHW MHW SHW MHW SHW MHW SHW MHW SHW MHW SHW MHW SHW
Ramesh Chand and Kamaljit Ray

Gorakhpur 0 0 1 0 7 0 10 3 23 0 3 0 4 0 0 0 9 0 18 0
Allahabad 7 0 18 0 13 0 26 3 27 0 11 0 4 0 6 0 8 2 25 2
Varanasi 3 0 2 0 4 0 11 0 18 5 13 0 6 0 7 0 21 3 36 9
Lucknow 4 0 0 0 7 0 14 0 12 4 5 0 4 0 0 0 7 1 19 0
Bareilly 5 1 2 0 1 0 6 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 16 0
 Analysis of Extreme High Temperature Conditions 369

Fig. 2: Year-wise number of heat waves in various stations of Uttar Pradesh.

The damage potential of the heat waves depend upon the duration of
the event; therefore cases of continuous days of MHW were also calculated.
Table 3 gives the instances of continuous heat wave days in the past 30 years.
Allahabad recorded continuous spell of heat wave for 17 days from 1 to 16
June, 1995, Gorakhpur recorded heat wave for continuous 11 days from 9 to
19 June, 1995 and during the same year, Bareilly recorded heat wave spell of
eight days (14-21 June). Heat wave prevailed over the state of Uttar Pradesh
during the entire month in various regions travelling from east to west. Table
4 shows the severe heat wave for continuous four days or more. Most of the
cases of continuous SHW were found to be in the first decade, with 90% of
the cases in 1987. Maximum frequency of heat waves over most parts of the
state was found to be in the month of June. The continuous SHW prevailed
in Varanasi from 22 to 27 March 2010, when maximum temperatures were
around 42°C to 43°C as against normal of 34°C and in the year 2005, it
prevailed from 15 to 20 June when maximum temperatures were around 45 to
47°C as against normal of 39°C.
370 Ramesh Chand and Kamaljit Ray

In the past 30 years the longest continuous severe heat wave (seven days)
realized in any station in Uttar Pradesh was in Allahabad from 24-30 June in
1987. Next higher number of SHW of six days was recorded in Gorakhpur
and Varanasi, during the same period when temperatures crossed 45°C (Table
4). Bareilly and Lucknow also had SHW conditions on 4 to 5 days in 1987.
Table 5 shows the highest temperatures recorded in the last 30 years. All
stations have recorded highest temperatures in the 1991-2000 decade. The
highest temperature of 48.4 was recorded in Allahabad on 30 May in 1994
followed by 46.8 recorded in Varanasi on 1 June and 23 May in 1998. In order
to analyze the increase in heat waves in the last decade the heat wave spells of
2, 4, 6 and more than 8 days for all stations are shown in Table 6. It was found
that the two-day spell of heat waves have increased significantly in March

Table 3: Days of continuous heat waves in the past 30 years

Station Duration Period

Allahabad 17 days 1 June-16 June 1995
Gorakhpur 11 days 9 June-19 June 1995
Varanasi 13 days 21 March-2 April 2010
Lucknow 11 days 10 June-20 June 2005
Bareilly 8 days 1 May-8 May 1995 & 14 June-21 June 1995

Table 4: Severe heat wave days for continuous four days and more

Station Duration Period Temperatures*

Allahabad 7 24th to 30th June 1987 45-47 (37°C)
Gorakhpur 6 25th to 30th June 1987 44-46 (36°C)
Varanasi 6 25th to 30th June 1987, 45-46 (36°C)
15th to 20th June 2005, 45-47 (39°C)
22th to 27th March 2010 42 (34°C)
Lucknow 5 26th to 30th June 1987 44-46 (36°C)
Bareilly 4 27th to 30th June 1987 44-45 (36°C)
*Figures within brackets are normals.

Table 5: Highest temperatures recorded in various observatories in the past 30 years

1970-2010

Stations Highest Temp. Date

Allahabad 48.4 30 May, 1994
Varanasi 46.8 1 June, 1998
23 May, 1998
Gorakhpur 45.5 25 May, 1995
Bareilly 46.6 2 June, 1995
Lucknow 46.5 31 May, 1995
 Table 6: Spells of heat wave for continuous 2 days, 4 days, 6 days and 8 days or more for different stations

Station Continuous spell of heat wave Decade March April May June Total (March to June)
Allahabad 2 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 1 4 4 9 18
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 4 3 6 9 22
Decade 3 (2001-10) 10 11 3 9 33
4 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 0 1 4 5
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 0 0 4 4
Decade 3 (2001-10) 3 4 1 4 12
6 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 0 0 2 2
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 0 0 3 3
Decade 3 (2001-10) 3 2 0 2 7
8 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 0 0 0 0
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 0 0 2 2
Decade 3 (2001-10) 0 1 0 1 2
Gorakhpur 2 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 2 1 1 7 11
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 1 0 2 6 9
Decade 3 (2001-10) 8 4 0 4 16
4 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 0 0 4 3
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 0 1 2 2
Decade 3 (2001-10) 2 1 0 2 5
6 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 0 0 4 4
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 0 1 2 3
Decade 3 (2001-10) 1 0 0 2 2
8 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 0 0 1 1
Analysis of Extreme High Temperature Conditions

Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 0 1 0 1
Decade 3 (2001-10) 0 0 0 2 2
371

(Contd.)
(Table 6: Contd.)
372

Station Continuous spell of heat wave Decade March April May June Total (March to June)
Varanasi 2days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 1 0 6 7
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 2 4 7 13
Decade 3 (2001-10) 9 11 2 7 29
4 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 0 0 3 3
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 0 1 2 3
Decade 3 (2001-10) 3 3 0 3 9
6 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 0 0 1 1
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 0 0 0 0
Decade 3 (2001-10) 2 2 0 2 6
8 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 0 0 0 0
Ramesh Chand and Kamaljit Ray

Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 0 0 0 0
Decade 3 (2001-10) 1 1 0 2 4
Lucknow 2days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 2 1 1 7 11
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 1 0 2 6 9
Decade 3 (2001-10) 8 4 0 4 16
4 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 0 0 3 3
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 0 0 2 2
Decade 3 (2001-10) 2 1 0 2 5
6 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 0 0 1 1
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 0 0 1 1
Decade 3 (2001-10) 2 0 0 2 2
8 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 0 0 0 0
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 0 0 0 0
Decade 3 (2001-10) 0 0 0 1 1
(Contd.)
 Bareilly 2days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 2 2 3 7
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 2 3 3 4 12
Decade 3 (2001-10) 2 5 0 2 9
4 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 0 0 3 3
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 0 3 2 5
Decade 3 (2001-10) 0 1 0 2 3
6 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 0 0 2 2
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 0 1 1 2
Decade 3 (2001-10) 0 0 0 2 2
8 days or more Decade 1 (1981-90) 0 0 0 1 1
Decade 2 (1991-2000) 0 0 1 0 1
Decade 3 (2001-10) 0 0 0 0 0
Analysis of Extreme High Temperature Conditions
373
374 Ramesh Chand and Kamaljit Ray

and April in the last decade as compared to earlier decades for all stations
except Bareilly. The four-day spells have also increased in the last decade as
compared to earlier ones and the rise has been in the months of March and
April particularly.
Some of the earlier studies have also indicated a relation between El-Nino
and heat waves (De and Mukhopadhyay, 1998; Chaudhury et al., 2000; Ray
et al., 2013). During the period 1980-2010, it was seen that the maximum
number of heat wave days and human lives lost were comparatively large
during the years preceded by warm ENSO years. In this study it was seen that
in the past 30 years, the years with high number of heat wave days were either
El-Nino years or years preceded by an El-Nino year. The year 1983, 1987,
2004, 2005 and 2010 were years when heat wave prevailed for a longer period
in Uttar Pradesh. The years 1982, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004,
2006 and 2009 were El-Nino years during last 30 years. Thus three El-Nino
years and two years succeeding El-Nino years were with maximum heat wave
days in the last three decades.
The study indicates an appreciable rise in extreme high temperature
episodes over Uttar Pradesh in the last decade, as compared to earlier decades.
More detailed study needs to be initiated to obtain a relation between El-Nino
and temperature extremes during summer.

3.2 Case Study of Severe Heat Wave Condition

(24-30 June 1987)
During the period from March to May, normal temperature was quite high
over the state. Moderate heat waves to severe heat waves prevailed over the
region. Figure 3 indicates the mean temperature distribution during the SHW
period in June 26-30, 1987. A major part of Uttar Pradesh state was severely
affected during the period. Allahabad recorded 45°C and more from 25 to 30
June, with the highest recorded being 46.7°C on 29 June. During the period
(26th June to 30th June 1987) of severe heat wave, low level continental dry
southerly to south-south easterly winds were blowing over the region as
monsoon trough was likely to establish during this period. The extreme high
temperature were also due to subsidence caused by an anticyclonic circulation
over the region at 500 hPa level. Figure 4 shows mean air temperature during
severe heat wave episode over Uttar Pradesh during 27 June 1987 to 30 June
1987. Pockets of temperature of more than 47°C in plains of UP with steep
decrease towards north in foothills of Himalaya were seen. Vast area were
under the grip of severe heat wave. Maximum temperature averaged for the
period 24th June 1987 to 30th June 1987, when severe heat wave prevailing
over the region was more than 46°C. The extreme high temperature was also
due to subsidence caused by an anticyclonic circulation over the region at 500
hPa level which continued till 30 June, 1987 (Figs 5 and 6).
 Analysis of Extreme High Temperature Conditions 375

Fig. 3: Daily maximum temperature (°K) averaged during 26 June 1987

to 30 June 1987.

Fig. 4: Mean air temperature 27 June 1987 to 30 June 1987.

376 Ramesh Chand and Kamaljit Ray

Fig. 5: NCEP reanalysis daily averages pressure level

image at 500 hPa of 27 June 1987.

Fig. 6: NCEP reanalysis daily averages pressure level image at

500 hPa of 30 June 1987.

4. Conclusions
This study was carried out to analyse the decadal pattern of extreme
temperature conditions over different weather stations of Uttar Pradesh. The
study indicates an appreciable rise in heat wave episode over U.P. in the last
decade, as compared to earlier two decades. More detailed study is needed to
obtain a relation between occurrence of heat wave and El-Nino and delayed
 Analysis of Extreme High Temperature Conditions 377

onset of monsoon. Detailed study also needs to be initiated to correlate heat

wave with loss of life (livestock) and loss of agriculture yields. The decadal
analysis indicated that:
(a) The number of moderate heat wave and severe heat wave were highest in
the month of June for all the stations considered.
(b) The total number of heat wave (moderate) is highest in the last decade
(2001-2010) as compared to earlier two decades. In general there is a
continuous increase in moderate heat wave from first decade to third
decade whereas severe heat waves were highest in first decade.
(c) In last decade, analysis shows 2010 was warmest year followed by 2005
and 2004.
(d) Plains of east UP is more prone to heat wave (both moderate and severe)
as compared to west UP.
(e) June is the month of longest duration of SHW in UP. No station reported
severe heat wave for more than seven days (Allahabad – 24th to 30th June
1987) in UP during last 30 years whereas heat wave for 17 days was
recorded during 1 June to 16 June 1995.

REFERENCES
Attri, S.D. and Tyagi, Ajit, 2010. “Climate profile of India”. Met Monograph No.
Environment Meteorology-01/2010.
Chaudhury, S.K., Gore, J.M. and Sinha Ray, K.C., 2000. “Impact of heat waves over
India”. Current Science, 79: 153-155.
De, U.S. and Mukhopadhyay, R.K., 1998. “Severe heat wave over Indian subcontinent
in 1998 in a perspective of global Climate”. Current Science, 75: 1308-1311.
De, U.S., Dube, R.K. and Prakasa Rao, G.S., 2005. “Extreme Weather Events over
India in the last 100 years”. J. Ind. Eophys, Union, 9(3): 173-187.
EM-DAT, 2011. “The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database”. [Link]-dat.
net.
Hingane, C.S., Rupa Kumar, K. and Ramana Murthy, Bh.V., 1985. “Long-term trends
of surface air temperature in India”. International Journal of Climatology, 5: 521-
528.
IMD Annual Climate Summary, 2009. National Climate Centre, Pune.
IPCC, 2007. “Climate Change 2007, The Physical Science Basis”. Cambridge
University Press, U.K.
Manton, M.J., 2010. “Trends in climate extremes affecting human settlements”.
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2: 151-155.
Ray, Kamaljit, Mohanty, M. and Chincholikar, J.R., 2009. “Climate Variability over
Gujarat, India”. ISPRS Archives XXXVIII-8/W3 Workshop Proceedings: Impact
of climate change on Agriculture.
Ray, Kamaljit, Chincholikar, J.R. and Mohanty, Manorma, 2013. “Analysis of extreme
high temperature conditions over Gujarat”. Mausam, 64(3): 467-474.
Srivastava, A.K., Sinha Ray, K.C. and Yadav, R.V., 2001. “Is summer becoming more
uncomfortable over major cities of India?” Current Science, 81: 342-344.

View publication stats