IMPROVEMENT OF PRIMARY EDUCATIONAL SERVICES IN THE 4 LOCALITIES OF THE ANCHIHUAY DISTRICT

PROVINCE OF THE SEA – DEPARTMENT OF AYACUCHO

Descriptive Memory
4.1. Definition of the Project Evaluation Horizon.
The evaluation horizon for educational projects is 10 years, a period during which it
they expect to obtain the projected benefits from the project.
The duration of the investment activities has a duration of 12 months including the
times required for the hiring processes of the consultant in charge of developing the
technical file and the company responsible for executing the work.

TABLE N° 4.1: Project Evaluation Horizon

FASE DE INVERSIÓN POST-INVESTMENT PHASE
MONTHS YEARS
ACTIVITY

01.00 INVESTMENT STAGE

Technical File
Preparation of File
01.01 01
Hiring for Technical Expert
Selection Process and Acts
01.02 01
contractual for Technical Expert
Preparation of File
01.03 02
Technician
Project Execution
Selection Process and Acts
April 1 02
contractual for Execution
Selection Process and Acts
01.05
contractual for Supervision
01.06 Project Execution 06
01.07 Project Settlement 01

POST-INVESTMENT STAGE -
02.00 OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE.

Operational and activities of

02.01 10
maintenance of the I. E.

4.2. Determination of the Supply - Demand Gap.

Before determining the demand and its projection, it is necessary to define the service subject to analysis.
in this case, the primary level educational service.

Service to Intervene - Primary Level Education.

According to the National Curriculum Design, this constitutes the second level of Basic Education.
Regular (EBR) lasts six years. Like the other levels, its aim is to educate comprehensively.
to boys and girls. It promotes communication in all areas, the operational management of
knowledge, personal development, spiritual, acquisition of necessary skills for the
unleashing the potentials of the student, as well as the understanding of facts close to their
natural and social environment.
Primary Education level is organized into 3 cycles that comprise 6 grades or years of education.
training. The teaching period is 30 hours a week for 5 days a week and can be
develop in 1 or 2 teaching shifts.

4.2.1. Demand Analysis.

A. Reference Population.
To determine the reference population, the population growth rate is taken into account.
Intercensal of the District.
Table No. 4.2. Population Growth Rate

M.D.A District Municipality of Anchihuay

IMPROVEMENT OF EDUCATIONAL SERVICES AT THE PRIMARY LEVEL IN THE 4 LOCALITIES OF THE ANCHIHUAY DISTRICT
PROVINCE OF THE SEA - DEPARTMENT OF AYACUCHO

Country Peru
Department Ayacucho
Province The Sea
District Anchihuay
Total inhabitants
Description
census 2017
Total 4,039
Sexo - Mujer 1,914
Sex - Male 2,125
Urban Area 0
Rural Area 4,039
Population Growth Rate
(2017)
0.00%
The district was created by No.
30086 on September 12, 2013.
According to Table No. 4.2. Population Growth Rate, it can be observed that the Rate of
District Population Growth is 0.00%.
With this growth rate, we made a projection of the reference population in a
a 10-year period, according to the project's horizon, it is determined that
By the year 2029, we will have a district population of 4,039 inhabitants.
Table No. 4.3. Population Projection of
Reference
District Anchihuay
Growth Rate 0.00%
Year Projected Population
2020 4039
2021 4039
2022 4039
2023 4039
2024 4039
2025 4039
2026 4039
2027 4039
2028 4039
2029 4039

B. Potential Demand Population

The potential demand population is the population that has the characteristics to access
the primary level educational services, and they are also located within the area of influence of
4.0 Km for Primary Education. (Technical Standards for the Design of School Facilities)
Regular Basic Education - Initial Level (2011) - Working Document: Technical Standards for the
diseño de locales de Educación Básica Regular: Primaria–Secundaria (2009).
According to the regulations of MINEDU, Primary Education starts from 6 to 11.
years, however, within the student population there are students considered in
EXTRACTION, which are more than 11 years old.

Projection of Potential Demand Population.

Based on the census data from the years 2007 and 2017, the population has been projected.
potential claimant aged between 6 and 11 years, in the project's horizon for each
one of the educational institutions to be involved in the project. The rate was used for the projection
of district growth that according to the National Census Dissemination System is 0.00%
corresponding to the Anchihuay District.
For the present study, projections of the potential demand were made for each one
of the institutions to intervene:

M.D.A District Municipality of Anchihuay

IMPROVEMENT OF EDUCATIONAL SERVICES AT THE PRIMARY LEVEL IN THE 4 LOCALITIES OF THE DISTRICT OF ANCHIHUAY
PROVINCE OF THE SEA - DEPARTMENT OF AYACUCHO

Primary Educational Institution N38775/MX-P OF PAMPA HERMOSA

According to the following table, we obtain a potential demand population for the locality of Pampa.
Beautiful with 0 school-age children by 2029.
Projection of Potential Demand - I.E. N38775/MX-P FROM PAMPA HERMOSA
Pre Tot
Population
Rate of inversion Post investment to the
Population on
according to age growth on for
nto Eda
2018
d
6 00 0.00% 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0
7 02 0.00% 02 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0
8 00 0.00% 00 02 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 2
9 01 0.00% 01 00 02 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 2
10 03 0.00% 03 01 00 02 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 3
11 02 0.00% 02 03 01 00 02 00 00 00 00 00 00 6
Source: Regional Health Directorate Ayacucho Year:
2018 8 6 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 13

Effective Demanding Population and its Projection.

a. Demanda Efectiva sin Proyecto.
It is that proportion of the potential population that will actually demand the educational service.
regardless of the execution of the PIP. The projection of this demand is made assuming,
generally, that tuition rates will remain on the assessment horizon, for which
It requires a prior analysis of the consistency of the enrollment projection in relation to the demand.
potential.

Primary Educational Institution N38775/MX-P of Pampa Hermosa

The Educational Institution being the only one that provides primary educational services in the locality of
PAMPA HERMOSA presents the historical enrollment data for the last 5 years in the following table.
Total enrollment in the last 5 years, by level of education
Age 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total
1st Grade 03 04 03 01 00 11
2nd Grade 06 03 05 02 00 16
3rd Grade 02 06 04 04 02 18
4th Grade 05 02 06 03 03 19
5th Grade 00 00 00 00 00 00
6th Grade 00 00 00 00 00 00
Total 16 15 18 10 05 64
Source: Enrollment Payroll

From the data obtained in the enrollment records, attendance by age can be broken down.
school population over the last 5 years
Total enrollment by level of education according to age (2014)
Age 1° Grado 2° Grado 3° Grado 4° Grado 5° Grado 6° Grado Total
06 03 00 00 00 00 00 03
07 00 06 00 00 00 00 06
08 00 02 00 00 02
09 00 00 05 05
10 00 00 00 00
11 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
Total 03 06 02 05 00 00 16
Source: Enrollment Payrolls

M.D.A District Municipality of Anchihuay

IMPROVEMENT OF EDUCATIONAL SERVICES AT THE PRIMARY LEVEL IN THE 4 LOCALITIES OF THE ANCHIHUAY DISTRICT
PROVINCE OF THE SEA - DEPARTMENT OF AYACUCHO

Total enrollment by level of education according to age (2015)

Age 1° Grado 2° Grado 3° Grado 4° Grado 5° Grado 6° Grado Total
06 04 00 00 00 00 00 04
07 00 03 00 00 00 00 03
08 00 06 00 00 06
09 00 00 02 02
10 00 00 00 00
11 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
Total 04 03 06 02 00 00 15
Source: Enrollment Payroll

Total enrollment by level of education according to age (2016)

Age 1° Grado 2° Grado 3° Grado 4° Grado 5° Grado 6° Grado Total
06 03 00 00 00 00 00 03
07 00 05 00 00 00 00 05
08 00 04 00 00 04
09 00 00 06 06
10 00 00 00 00
11 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
Total 03 05 04 06 00 00 18
Source: Enrollment Payroll

Total enrollment by level of education by age (2017)

Age 1° Grado 2° Grado 3° Grado 4° Grado 5° Grado 6° Grado Total
06 01 00 00 00 00 00 01
07 00 02 00 00 00 00 02
08 00 04 00 00 04
09 00 00 03 03
10 00 00 00 00
11 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
Total 01 02 04 03 00 00 10
Source: Enrollment Payrolls

Total enrollment by level of education according to age (2018)

Age 1° Grado 2° Grado 3° Grado 4° Grado 5° Grado 6° Grado Total
06 00 00 00 00 00 00
07 00 00 00 00 00 00
08 00 02 00 00 02
09 00 00 03 03
10 00 00 00 00
11 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
Total 00 00 02 03 00 00 05
Source: Enrollment Payrolls

Obtaining a summary of total enrollments by age over the last 5 years according to the table
next

M.D.A District Municipality of Anchihuay

IMPROVEMENT OF EDUCATIONAL SERVICES AT THE PRIMARY LEVEL IN THE 4 LOCALITIES OF THE ANCHIHUAY DISTRICT
PROVINCE OF THE SEA - DEPARTMENT OF AYACUCHO

Total enrollment in the last 5 years, by age

Age 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total
06 03 04 03 01 11
07 06 03 05 02 00 16
08 02 06 04 04 02 18
09 05 02 06 03 03 19
10 00 00 00 00 00 00
11 00 00 00 00 00 00
00
Total 16 15 18 10 05 64
Source: Enrollment Payrolls

Projection of effective demand without project

According to the historical registration of enrollments, an average growth rate of -20.17% is obtained in the
situation without a project
Enrollment projection rate
Description 2015 2016 2017 2018 Average
According to the arithmetic method ["-6.25%","20.00%","-44.44%","-50.00%"] -20.17%
According to the linear trend method 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Selected projection rate -20.17%
Source: Enrollment Payrolls

Having obtained the growth rate of enrollments, we proceed to project the effective demand in the
situation without a project
Projection of Effective Demand without Project
Pre-Investment Post investment
Rate of
Degree
Projection

1st Grade -20.17% 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

2nd Degree 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
3rd Grade 02 02 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
4th Grade 03 02 02 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
5th Grade 00 00 02 02 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
6th Grade 00 00 00 02 02 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
Total -20.17% 05 04 04 04 02 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
Source: Enrollment Payrolls

Effective Demand with Project.

To carry out the projection of effective demand in the situation with the project, it is necessary to analyze the
main variables that make up the current enrollment growth rate, thus becoming these
in the indicators of the current status of the service.
Indicators of the current state of the service.
Among the indicators of the current situation, the most important is the Rate of New Entrants to the first
grade, we also have the Approval Rate, Repetition Rate, Rate of students with Overage (age
not corresponding to primary level, they are students older than 11 years.
Next, the analysis of the indicators of the current situation for each educational institution will be conducted.
to intervene, as these are variables according to the issues of each locality.

Primary Educational Institution N38775/MX-P of Pampa Hermosa

Based on the enrollment records from the last 5 years, we determined the number of students in each
enrollment situation at the beginning of the school year.
Since for admission to primary level, it is only necessary to have turned 6 years old, without having completed
the lower level, that is the initial level, the enrollment rate will only correspond to those children who

M.D.A District Municipality of Anchihuay

IMPROVEMENT OF EDUCATIONAL SERVICES AT THE PRIMARY LEVEL IN THE 4 LOCALITIES OF THE ANCHIHUAY DISTRICT
PROVINCE OF MAR - DEPARTMENT OF AYACUCHO

find at that age. (exceptional cases where children could enroll at 5 in previous years)
years).

Indicator of the Unattended School Population

The first indicator to study is the number of unserved school population, which is established based on the
projection of the potential demand population and the projection of the effective demand population without
project.
Projection chart of the Unattended Population (1st Grade)
Type of Demand
Potential demand (1st grade) 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
Effective demand (1st grade - without
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
project)
Unserved population 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Unattended population rate
% % % % % % % % % % %

Indicator of First Grade Admission, Approval and Retention

El siguiente cuadro presenta la situación del alumno al matricularse, siendo este la base para el cálculo de
the indicators of the current situation.
Total enrollment according to situation upon enrollment.
Situation When Enrolling 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Total
ENTRANTS 03 04 03 01 00 11
(for the first time in the 1st grade of Primary School)
PROMOTED from the same IE. 13 11 15 09 05 53
(passed the previous grade in the same institution)
PROMOTED from another Educational Institution.
00 00 00 00 00
(approved the previous grade in another I.E.)
Repeaters from the same educational institution.
00 00 00 00 00 00
(failed the same grade or dropped out in the same I.E.)
Repeating students from another educational institution.
They either failed the same grade or withdrew from another educational institution.
00 00 00 00 00 00

RE-ENTERING promoted 00 00 00 00 00 00
(they did not enroll and had previously passed the previous grade)
REPEATERS repeaters 00 00 00 00 00 00
they did not enroll and had previously failed the same grade
Total 16 15 18 10 05 64
Source: Enrollment Payroll
From the previous table, three main indicators of the current situation can be broken down, such as:
Number of students who are attending first grade of Primary Education for the first time.
as New Students, Number of students approved and repeaters per year, whether they have completed their
studies at the same Educational Institution or at another Educational Institution.
Number of Enrollments by Situation
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Average
Entrants 03 04 03 01 00 02
Approved 13 11 15 09 05 11
Repeaters
16 15 18 10 05
Source: Enrollment Payrolls

Enrollment Rate by Situation

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Average
New entrants 18.75% 26.67% 16.67% 10.00% 0.00% 14.42%
Approved 81.25% 73.33% 83.33% 90.00% 100.00% 85.58%
Repeaters

M.D.A District Municipality of Anchihuay

IMPROVEMENT OF EDUCATIONAL SERVICES AT THE PRIMARY LEVEL IN THE 4 LOCALITIES OF THE ANCHIHUAY DISTRICT
PROVINCE OF THE SEA–DEPARTMENT OF AYACUCHO

Source: Enrollment Payrolls

Calculation of the Projection Rate

To calculate the projection rate of effective demand with the project, the following must be considered
interventions to be carried out to improve the indicators of the current situation, establishing the goals of
changes to be achieved progressively until the end of the evaluation period.
This study has determined that compliance with the fundamental means will influence both in
students, as well as teachers and parents, to achieve the proposed goals.
The selected indicators of the current situation to determine the projection of the current situation.
son
Unattended population rate for entry into first grade.
Student approval rate.
Student repetition rate.
Rate of students who are not of the appropriate age for primary education.

Rate Projection according to Project objectives

Pro
Ac Obj Hori medi
your time is up o
l o e Anu
the
Population rate not 0.0 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100.
10
attentive (1st grade) 0% 00% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 00%
0.0 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100.
10
Approved 0% 00% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 00%
0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00
10
Repeaters 0% % % % % % % % % % % % %
Student rate in 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00
extra age % 0%
10 % % % % % % % % % % %
100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100.
00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00%

The objective of the study is based on improving the indicators of the current situation within the first 10.
years of the evaluation horizon, as shown in the previous table, obtaining the projection of
the indicators for the entire study horizon.
To determine the projection of effective demand by grade, the following typology is established:

Description of Projection by Degree

Degree Estimation
1st Grade According to the project's objective regarding the rate of the population not served in 1st grade
2nd Grade Total number of first grade students (according to the criterion of not failing 1st grade)
3° Grado % Alumnos aprobados 2° grado + % Alumnos desaprobados 3° grado + % Alumnos en Extraedad
4° Grado % Alumnos aprobados 3° grado + % Alumnos desaprobados 4° grado + % Alumnos en Extraedad
5th Grade % Approved students 4th grade + % Failed students 5th grade + % Students in Extra Age
6th Grade % Students passed 5th grade + % Students failed 6th grade + % Students in Extra Age

M.D.A District Municipality of Anchihuay

“MEJORAMIENTO DE LOS SERVICIOS EDUCATIVOS DEL NIVEL PRIMARIAEN LAS 4 LOCALIDADES DEL DISTRITO DE ANCHIHUAY–
PROVINCE OF THE SEA - DEPARTMENT OF AYACUCHO

During the Pre-Investment period, the student population is determined, maintaining the current rates.
of the indicators, where the projection rate for the first grade is the projection rate of the demand
effective without a project.

Projection of Effective Demand with Project

Pre-Investment Post investment
Total
Grade Rate of Beneficiaries
Projection
1st Grade 10.00% 00 01 01 01 02 02 02 03 03 03 04 04
2nd Degree 00 00 01 01 01 02 02 02 03 03 03 04
3rd Grade 02 00 00 01 01 01 02 02 02 03 03 03
4th Grade 03 02 00 00 01 01 01 02 02 02 03 03
5th Grade 00 03 02 00 00 01 01 01 02 02 02 03
6th Grade 00 00 03 02 00 00 01 01 01 02 02 02
Total 10.00% 05 06 (*) 07 05 05 08 10 12 13 15 17 19 112
Source: Enrollment Payrolls (*) It is assumed that the projection rates remain unchanged.

From the projection of effective demand with the project, the number of students is obtained.
beneficiaries of the project.

Beneficiaries of
Project
IE Locality No. IE Beneficiaries
IE - 1 BEAUTIFUL PAMPAS 38775 112
Total Beneficiarios 112

Demand for Classes I.E. N38775/MX-P FROM PAMPA HERMOSA

Grade N° de Alumnos Cant. Classes
1st Grade 04 Class 01
2nd Degree 04 Class 01
3rd Grade 03 Class 01
4th Grade 03 Class 01
5th Grade 03 Class 01
6th Grade 02 Class 01
Total 19 01

M.D.A Anchihuay District Municipality