Mathematics for Computer Engineering (AIML)
Mini Project Report
Module 6: Probability – Self Learning Topics
Group Members:
1. BHURVANE TRUPTI GANPAT (57)
2. CHAUGULE RUSHIKESH MANOHAR (58)
3. CHAVAN SHRAVANI SACHIN (59)
4. CHAVHAN VIDHAN SHANTARAM (60)
1. Abstract
This mini-project explores the fundamental concepts of Probability as covered under Module 6 of
Mathematics for Computer Engineering. The study focuses on understanding randomness,
uncertainty, and prediction using mathematical tools. Probability plays a vital role in Artificial
Intelligence, Machine Learning, and data analysis. This project discusses real-world applications,
mathematical definitions, and key theorems such as Bayes’ theorem, Poisson distribution, Normal
distribution, and measures like Skewness and Kurtosis.
2. Keywords
Probability, Bayes’ Theorem, Poisson Distribution, Normal Distribution, Skewness, Kurtosis,
Random Variables, Statistics
3. Introduction
Probability is the branch of mathematics that deals with the measurement of uncertainty. In the
field of computer engineering, probability serves as a foundation for algorithms in machine
learning, artificial intelligence, and statistical modeling. It allows engineers to make predictions,
estimate risks, and analyze data-driven problems. In this mini-project, the goal is to understand the
self-learning topics under Module 6 and apply them to realistic examples using a structured
approach.
The project covers four major problems—Skewness and Kurtosis of a dataset, Bayes’ Theorem,
Poisson Distribution, and Normal Approximation to Binomial Distribution—each demonstrating
how probability concepts are used in data-driven decision-making.
4. Definition
Probability can be defined as the measure of how likely an event is to occur. It ranges between 0
and 1, where 0 means the event is impossible and 1 means the event is certain. Mathematically,
probability of an event A is given by:
P(A) = (Number of favorable outcomes) / (Total number of outcomes)
Key Terms:
- Random Experiment: An experiment with uncertain outcomes.
- Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes.
- Event: A subset of sample space.
- Independent Events: Events that do not affect each other’s outcomes.
- Conditional Probability: The probability of one event occurring given that another has occurred.
5. History
The concept of probability originated in the 17th century through correspondence between French
mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. Their work laid the foundation of modern
probability theory. Later, scientists like Jacob Bernoulli and Carl Friedrich Gauss expanded its use in
statistics and measurement errors. The Normal Distribution, often called the Gaussian distribution,
was introduced as a model for random variations in natural phenomena.
Today, probability theory forms the mathematical backbone of disciplines like machine learning,
finance, operations research, and engineering analytics.
6. Examples
Example 1: Tossing a coin – The probability of getting heads is 0.5.
Example 2: Rolling a die – The probability of getting a number greater than 4 is 2/6 = 1/3.
Example 3: Predicting rainfall – Based on past data, a 70% probability indicates high chances of
rain.
Example 4: Defective item detection – In manufacturing, probability models help determine defect
rates and optimize quality control
Question 1 — Skewness and Excess Kurtosis
Problem: For the data ({12, 15, 14, 10, 18, 20, 11, 13}), find the sample mean, standard deviation,
skewness, and excess kurtosis. Interpret the results.
Step 1 — Calculate Mean
(n = 8)
[ {x} = = 14.125 ]
Step 2 — Calculate Sample Standard Deviation (s)
Sum of squared deviations = 84.0
[ s^2 = = 12.0 s = 3.4408 ]
Step 3 — Compute Standardized Values and Their Powers
(z_i^3 = 3.6799), (z_i^4 = 13.0149)
Step 4 — Sample Skewness (g₁)
[ g_1 = z_i^3 = (3.6799) = 0.701 ]
Step 5 — Sample Excess Kurtosis (g₂)
[ g_2 = z_i^4 - ]
[ g_2 = -0.438 ]
Interpretation:
- Skewness ≈ 0.70: Slightly right-skewed (longer right tail).
- Excess Kurtosis ≈ −0.44: Platykurtic — flatter peak, lighter tails than normal.
Question 2 — Bayes’ Theorem
Problem: A disease affects 2% of a population. The test for the disease has 95% sensitivity and
90% specificity. If a person tests positive, what is the probability they actually have the disease?
Step 1 — Known Values
P(D) = 0.02, P(¬D) = 0.98
P(Pos|D) = 0.95, P(Pos|¬D) = 0.10
Step 2 — Apply Bayes’ Theorem
[ P(D|Pos) = ] [ P(D|Pos) = = 0.1624 ]
Interpretation:
Even with a positive result, the probability the person actually has the disease is ≈16.2%. This
highlights the importance of prior probability in interpreting test results.
Question 3 — Poisson Distribution
Problem: A server experiences an average of 2.5 failures per month. Find the probability of exactly
4 failures in a month.
Step 1 — Identify the Distribution
(X Poisson(= 2.5))
Step 2 — Formula
[ P(X=k)= ] For k = 4:
[ P(X=4)= ]
Step 3 — Compute Value
(2.5^4=39.0625), (4!=24), (e^{-2.5}=0.0821)
[ P(X=4)=0.0821×=0.1336 ]
Interpretation:
There is about 13.36% probability that exactly four failures will occur in one month.
Question 4 — Normal Approximation to Binomial
Problem: An algorithm succeeds with probability p = 0.3. It is executed 200 times. Find the
probability that the number of successes lies between 50 and 70 (inclusive) using the Normal
approximation.
Step 1 — Mean and Standard Deviation
( = np = 60, ; = = 6.4807 )
Step 2 — Continuity Correction and Z-Scores
For 49.5 ≤ X ≤ 70.5:
[ Z_1 = = -1.620 ]
[ Z_2 = = +1.620 ]
Step 3 — Probability from Z-Table
[ P(50≤X≤70) ≈ Φ(1.62) - Φ(-1.62) = 0.8948 ]
Interpretation:
The probability that the number of successes is between 50 and 70 is ≈ 89.5%. The Normal
approximation is accurate because n is large and p is moderate.
Conclusion
This mini-project covers the key self-learning topics under Module 6 — Skewness & Kurtosis and
Applications of Probability Distributions. Each problem is solved step-by-step to demonstrate
understanding and practical interpretation in engineering and data contexts.
References
1. University of Mumbai Syllabus (Module VI: Probability – Self-Learning Topics)
2. S. M. Ross, A First Course in Probability
3. B. S. Grewal, Higher Engineering Mathematics