Official script

By Tariq Alturk

Conflict comes in many forms, it can be political in the form of diplomatic struggles or military
confrontations, it can be personal between two individuals, it can even be internal between you and
yourself. However, it always has causes, consequences, stages and actors involved in the process.
Conflict does not just appear out of nowhere, there are multiple factors at play, so many of which are
unnoticed or have effects that are nigh impossible to predict. So why does conflict occur? And what
are its effects?

Causes
As aforementioned, any conflict needs to have a motive, whether explicit or implicit. On a political
scale, one of these motives could be unequal distribution of resources between two or more parties,
which, in turn, could result in a serious conflict taking place. This, while a major cause, could also
dictate the path the war takes. An evident historical example of this could be in the first world war,
when Germany attempted extensive submarine warfare in 1916 in order to starve Britain into
submission, the same strategy was implemented during the second world war in 1940. Additionally,
the German empire lost the first world war not due to military incompetence, but rather due to a
lack of resources after a long attritional war, which further conveys how conflict is greatly affected by
resource distribution.

Another major factor in conflicts is clashing ideologies, religions, and differing perspectives. For
example, operation Barbarossa in 1941 and the second world war as a whole was caused by the Nazi
ideology of the German master race, as Adolf Hitler presented in Mein Kampf. The stab in the back
myth, developed following Germany’s surrender in the first world war, blamed Jews and communists
for betraying the Kaiser, General Erich Von Ludendorf’s final remark before resigning was to blame
the Jews and socialists for betrayal of the Reich. This was later used as justification for the holocaust
and the operation Barbarossa along with the horrid crimes against humanity perpetrated during it.
Another example would be the Russian revolution, specifically the October revolution and the
subsequent Russian civil war that started dur to communist ideals spread in the form of bolshevism.

Last but not least, the final factor we’ll be discussing in todays video is power dynamics, where one
party can declare war on another due to fears of the opponents rising power. A prime example of
this is the German Empire’s invasion of Russia during the First World War. The Kaiser had desired
conflict not to needlessly waste the lives of millions, but to neutralize Russia before it’s enormous
population and unmatched natural resources can be weaponized and used to dominate Germany. All
of these factors intertwine and interact in order to cause conflict

Stages of war
Conflicts are almost never static, they run through multiple stages before they conclude.
 Latent Stage: this is where Society seems peaceful on the surface, but the underlying
tensions that are the root cause of the conflict still exist, an example of this would be the
years preceding the rise of Hitler and the Nazi party to power, the tensions within German
society existed, they needed no more than a spark to occur. Back in 1927, Hitler was an
afterthought on the international stage, it only took him six years to become the chancellor
of Germany from that point. Not all conflicts develop past this stage, however. Many conflicts
remain dormant until the tensions eventually fade

 Emergence Stage: During this stage, the underlying tensions mentioned earlier become
apparent as parties begin to form their objectives and express their ambitions. This can also
be seen in the aforementioned example of Hitlers rise to power. Following the Great
Depression, the Nazi party would dominate national politics. This stage often follows the
latent stage due to a certain event that brings those tensions to sight. The tensions and
grievances of German society only needed the Great Depression of 1930 to be remembered.
The economic crisis that was the depression, catapulted Hitler into the spotlight of German
politics, as the common individual sought a way to acquire food and basic monetary needs.
Another example could be the time preceding the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand
in 1914 by Serb nationalists. During this time, tensions were already on the rise, and the
future combatants of the First World War were already prepared. This stage can last for years
depending on the context, and many conflicts never make it past this stage. This can also be
applied on an individual and personal level, where conflict often arises following a time of
tension.

 Escalation Stage: This is by far one of the most crucial stages in the dynamics of conflict.
During this stage, diplomacy breaks down, and parties begin to take up arms. Escalation is a
rather complex topic, during the process, a provocative action can lead to a reaction from
the opposing party, which in turn leads to another provocative reaction that goes on until all
breaks down. The escalation stage can last years, or, in the case of The First World War,
months. The escalation that lead to World War One started with the assassination of
Archduke of Austria, Franz Ferdinand, by Serb nationalists. This lead to Austria reacting with
an ultimatum towards Serbia which, in turn, lead to Russian mobilization. This lead to
German mobilization and diplomacy breaking down with the Austrian invasion of Serbia that
lead to World War One, all happening in a month. Past the escalation stage lay the point of
no return, should all parties not agree on a compromise that deescalates the situation then it
will erupt just like it did in the case of the First World War. This can sometimes come
unexpectedly, no European in early 1914 could’ve imagined that the world would be thrown
into chaos within the matter of one month.

 Crisis Stage: once escalation leads to war, all diplomatic calculations become irrelevant in the
eyes of the warring parties, at least towards one another. No compromises will be made due
to the fact that both parties have already engaged in armed conflict. Diplomacy, outside the
realm of negotiations, no longer exists, and without the influence of outside power, all
actions during this stage are plausible to take place, whether it be sweeping demands for
 peace or a genocidal war simply to increase effectiveness. The period of the crisis depends
purely on military factors (in the case of politics), or the intervention of outside powers. The
crisis stage is rarely isolated or unimpressionable, however. Often a non-belligerent has
influence over events on the ground. One example of this is Germany’s submarine campaign
of World War One. In this campaign, they attempted to starve Britain into submission by
sinking her merchant fleets. This, however, angered the United States who had commercial
relations with the British. Subsequently, Germany tuned down her submarine campaign until
the US entered the war later.

The aftermath
All conflicts eventually end. When a conflict ends, the result can be one of multiple possible
conclusions. Either the confrontation ends in stalemate with neither side capable of overpowering
the enemy, in which case relations can either heal over time or disputes remain in the long term such
as the case for the Iran-Iraq war. Or one side forces the other into capitulation first that results in a
peace favorable to the victor such was the case with the treaty of Versailles for Germany. Finally, in
the most extreme case, one side is annihilated leaving no one to sign a treaty other than the
surviving remnants of the vanquished army. The aftermath of a conflict can have a profound impact
on the post-war period that, depending on the devastation of the conflict, can result in radicalization
and new ideologies. A notorious example of this would be how socialism and Nazism both soared in
Europe following the First World War because of the suffering of the conflict for the socialists, and
the humiliation that was bore from losing it in Germany in the case of the Nazis. The severity of
peace on the losing side depends on the severity of the war. In the case of rapid confrontation where
the losing side capitulates simply out of need to rapidly end the conflict, such as the Russo Japanese
war, the peace is often mild, in the case of the vanquished being annihilated and there fighting
capacity being destroyed, the treaty is often severe as there is no leverage from the vanquished to
prevent a severe treaty, such as the German surrender of 1918 after the government ceased to exist
as a functional institution. In cases where third parties are involved and see a severe treaty as a
disturbance that violates their interest, the treaty could be intentionally amended to be milder in
order to prevent the balance of power from being disturbed and not to get third parties involved,
one example of this would be the relatively mild treaty France after the Napoleonic wars in which the
French state was spared mutilation to preserve balance between the powers of Europe at the time.

Conclusion
Conflict on the political scale is an extremely complex topic that, if discussed in detail, could take
hours of writing on end. Conflict is influenced by countless factors that are impossible to consider in
the midst of the crisis stage, and many of them can only be given full acknowledgement with the
power of hindsight. The factors of political conflict can also be applied on the most individual of
levels whether it be at school or at work, conflict always has the same dynamics and calculations.
Sources
 Russian Civil War | Casualties, Causes, Combatants, & Outcome | Britannica

 Stab-in-the-back Myth

 World War II | Facts, Summary, History, Dates, Combatants, & Causes | Britannica

 World War I - Eastern Front, 1916, Trench Warfare | Britannica

 The Anatomy of Conflict: Understanding Its Origins and Dynamics • Journalism University

 Nazi Party - Rise to Power, Ideology, Germany | Britannica

 Iran-Iraq War | Causes, Summary, Casualties, Chemical Weapons, Dates, & Facts | Britannica

 Napoleonic Wars | Summary, Combatants, & Maps | Britannica