POPULATION STATISTICS

Introduction :
Scope and objectives of demography

Definition
Demography is the scientific study of human populations.

Population is the number of persons alive at a specified point in time who meets certain criteria.

WHY STUDY DEMOGRAPHY?

Demography can play a number of roles and serve several distinct purposes. The most fundamental is
to describe changes in population size, distribution, and composition as a guide for decision making.

How is this done?

This is done by obtaining counts of persons from, for example, censuses, files of continuous
population registers, administrative records, or sample surveys.

Components of demography
The components of formal demography are;
➢ Size
➢ Distribution
➢ Structure or composition and change of demography

Population Size is simply the number of persons in a given area at a given time.
Population Distribution refers to the way the population is dispersed in geographic space at a given
time.
Population Composition refers to the numbers of person in sex, age, and other “demographic”
categories.

DEMOGRAPHIC MEASURES (RATES)

Definition of rate
It is a measure of the frequency with which an event occurs in a defined population during a
given period of time.
• Numerator: Count of events that occur during a period, usually one year.
• Denominator: Person-time units of exposure for the same period as the numerator

Person-Years

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Is the total number of years contributed by all individuals who were alive in the population at
any time between O and T.
Example is illustrated below

Exercises on Person-Years

The table below shows the population of a CLOSED community

Name Date of birth Survivorship status/Date of
death as the end of 2018
Ashitey, A. 06-07-1940 alive
Benewa, Y. 08-02-1954 alive
Kwami, M 24-01-1980 24-01-2018
Ibrahim, S. 25-12-2017 02-02-2018
Atta, W. 28-03-2000 alive
Amarteifio, M. 16-08-1999 alive
Ghartey, V. 31-01-2018 07-07-2018
Agyeman, N. 03-02-2017 alive
Dowokpor, K. 11-11-2015 alive
Kumekpor, T. 10-10-1946 01-08-2018
Mumuni, M. 01-04-2001 alive
Asomaniwa, A. 12-12-2009 alive
Agama, C. 13-05-2018 alive
Tetteh, N. 07-06-2003 30-12-2018
Sackey, Y. 18-09-2007 alive
Otokunor, K 23-02-2002 alive
Mante, F 26-04-2018 alive
Asare, E. 27-08-2012 alive
Alhassan, D. 30-03-2010 alive

a) (i) Stating any assumptions that you make,

b) Calculate the person-years lived by the community in 2018

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TYPES of RATES:
Crude, Specific and Standardized

Crude Rates
A crude rate measures the frequency of the occurrence of an event in a population of a defined area;
some of whom may not be exposed to the risk of experiencing the event under consideration. Eg
crude death rate (CDR)

Specific Rates
A specific rate links those who actually experience the event with ONLY those who are exposed to
the risk of suffering from or experiencing the event in question. Eg: age-specific fertility rate.

Standardized Rates
A standardized rate allows for differences in the composition of groups being compared with respect
to a particular variable or variables.

Standardization is necessary in comparative studies because it reduces variables to the same scale and
this provides a fair basis for comparison.

FERTILITY

PERIOD FERTILITY

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

It is a measure of the frequency of births in a population.
It is the ratio of the number of births in a year to the mid-year population.

B
➢ CBR = *1000
P
B = Births in a year
P = Mid-year population or person-years

Strengths
• It shows the level of fertility in an entire population. For this reason it is the usual index of
fertility found in most demographic and statistical publications.
• It is easily and quickly computed because it requires minimum data (two items).
• Even where detailed analysis is contemplated a crude rate often gives a preliminary indication
of the level or trend of fertility.
• Tentative results can be found before checks and tests of the data are completed.
• At the early stages this is valuable, even if later found to be wrong, in deciding what further
research to pursue.

Limitations

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 • It mixes together many population groups whose fertility varies widely.
• The CBR mixes these elements (age, sex, etc) indiscriminately, in the form of an average,
thereby giving greater weight to the fertility experience that is extremely high or low. Thus,
the level of the CBR is affected not only by the level of fertility which it is supposed to
measure but also by the distribution of people of varying fertility.

General Fertility Rate (GFR)

A better measure of fertility is obtained if the denominator of the CBR is restricted to the women at
risk of childbirth.

B
GFR = f
*1000
P 15− 49

B = Births in a year
P = Mid-year female population or female person-years aged 15 – 49 years.

As is the case of other vital rates, the mid-year population is used as an estimate of the number of
person years lived by the women in the age group.

Strength
• It can be computed in situations in which the registration of births and the enumeration of the
population are satisfactory, but direct evidence of births by age of parents is lacking.

Limitation
• It conceals a large amount of variation by age.

Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR)

These are ratios of live births by age of mother to women in each age interval, usually in five year age
groups.
B x− y
ASFRx − y = *1000
p xf − y

B x − y = Number of live birth to a woman in specific age group x-y

Pfx − y =The total number of women in specific age group x-y
The data required are live births classified by age of mother, and the population of women 15 – 49 in
the same age groups.

ASFRs are computed because the frequency of childbirth varies markedly by age. These comprise a
whole of rates (7) instead of just one average figure.

Strengths
• They reveal the distribution of frequencies of births among women according to age.
• They represent the most useful single step in analysing the fertility performance of a calendar
year.
• It is a large improvement in previous measures, for these rates are not significantly distorted
by variations in age composition either in the total population or among the women of child
bearing age.
• It also identifies a few stages in the reproductive careers of the different age groups of
women.
• ASFRs are utilised in the calculation of other important measures.

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Limitations
• ASFRs are difficult to interpret
• Requires elaborate data (births by age of mother). This data is not available for most
developing countries.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

The series of seven ASFR is sometimes too cumbersome to be useful. When necessary they can be
condensed by combining them into a single figure

5  ASFR
➢ TFR =
1000
∑ASFR= Sum of all the age specific fertility rates
• The TFR represents the same population of women as the GFR, but takes account of the
distribution of year’s births among women of different ages. Hence, it is a far more effective
measure for summarizing the frequency of births of a particular year.
• With a moment’s reflection, this procedure is recognisable as an example of standardization,
according to the direct method.
• The birth rate of each age is multiplied by a standard population of one person (or at each five
year interval is multiplied by five).
• For this reason, the TFR remains unaffected by peculiarities of the age composition of women
in the interval ages of 15 – 49.

FERTILITY MEASURES BASED ON CENSUSES and SURVEYS

Child-Woman Ratio (CWR)

It is the ratio of children under 5 years old to women of childbearing age.

𝑃0−4
➢ 𝐶𝑊𝑅 = 𝑓
𝑃15−49

P0-4 = number of children aged of 0 - 4

Pf 15-49 = total female population aged 15 – 49 (i.e women in their reproductive age group)
Strengths
• The numerator and the denominator for the CWR are drawn from the same universe. The
population distribution by age and sex as given by the census.
• It does not require a special question in the census
• This ratio is also useful as a means of obtaining fertility statistics for small areas (districts,
minor civil divisions, etc.) since it is often too expensive to tabulate data from special fertility
questions or from special coding for such areas, the age-sex distribution, in the absence of
birth statistics may be the only source of fertility information for them.

Weaknesses
• It is directly affected by the under – enumeration of young children, which is often large and
variable from one area to another.
• CWR is also affected by mortality. Mortality affects both the women of childbearing age and
the children under five who are survivors of the births in the preceding five years. Since the
survival rate is higher for the women, the ratios always understate recent fertility.
International comparisons are particularly affected because there is so much variation in
infant and child mortality.

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 • The broad age range used for women does not take account of their age distribution within
this range; and fertility is of course closely related to age. ASFR are at their maximum from
ages 20 to 29, and ratios using children under five, therefore, would be expected to be at their
maximum at about ages 22 and a half to 32 and a half. Therefore it would be desirable to
standardize the CWR for effects of age composition within the child bearing years.

EXERCISE 1A

The data below shows the distribution of births by age of mother in 2009 in a certain country.
Given that the total mid-year population of the country was 4,668,400
Age Group Number of Women Number of Births
15-19 225200 21834
20-24 217600 35997
25-29 173400 21670
30-34 143300 8935
35-39 134100 3464
40-44 96000 925
45-49 79035 621

Calculate the following

a) Crude birth rate
b) General fertility rate
c) Age-specific fertility rates and use the results obtain to compute
d) Total fertility rate.

COHORT FERTILITY

Completed Family Size (CFS)

CFS = mean children ever born to women at the end of the reproductive years.

Parity Progression Ratios (PPRs) [FOR POST GADUATES ONLY]

See hand out attached.

EXERCISE 1B

The table below shows the distribution of women aged 45-49 by the number of children that they
have had.

CEB 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
No. of women aged 45-49 17 27 29 33 39 45 48 49 47 41 88
(in ‘000)

Calculate the parity progressive ratios for these women.

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Using these data calculate
a) Mean children ever born
b) Parity progression ratios for these women.
c) Cohort Total fertility rate

Solution:
Number of women aged 45-49 with at least x CEB
(10+ CEB) = 88,
(9 CEB)= 88+41=129,
(8 CEB)= 88+41+ 47= 176
.
.
.

(CEB 0)=88+41+47+49+48+45+…+29+27+14=460
446 419 390
PPR 0 = = 0.9696 , PPR1 = = 0.9395 , PPR 2 = = 0.9308 ,…,
460 446 419
88
PPR 9 = = 0.6822
129
Children Ever Born Number Of Women in Number Of Women Aged PPR
(CEB) Thousands (45-49) 45-49 With at Least X CEB
in thousand
0 14 460 0.9696
1 27 446 0.9395
2 29 419 0.9308
3 33 390 0.9154
4 39 357 0.8908
5 45 318 0.8585
6 48 273 0.8242
7 49 225 0.7822
8 47 176 0.733
9 41 129 0.6822
10+ 88 88

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MORTALITY OR DEATH RATES
DEATH
Permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any time after live birth has taken place
(post-natal cessation of vital functions without capability of resuscitation)
Causes of deaths could include; natural death ceasing breath naturally, accident, illness,
suicide, etc.
Some other forms or types of deaths are;

Fetal Death
This is Death prior to the complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of
conception, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy.

Three major categories of fetal deaths recommended by WHO:

• Early fetal death: < 20 completed weeks of gestation
• Intermediate fetal death: ≥ 20 but < 28 weeks
• Late fetal death: ≥ 28 weeks

Stillbirth
This is late fetal death

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Maternal Mortality
It is Deaths to women in a given population resulting from complications of pregnancy or
childbirth.
D
➢ Crude Death Rate = *1000
P
D= Beaths in a year
P= Midyear population or person-years
𝐷𝑋
➢ Age Specific Death Rate = 𝑃𝑋 × 1000

DX= Number deaths at specific age or age group x

PX= Total number of persons at specific age group x
D0
➢ Infant Mortality Rate = *1000
B
D0 = Number Deaths less than a year
B = Total number of live births

Deaths of persons less than one week

➢ Early Neonatal Mortality Rate = *1000
B

➢ Late Neonatal Mortality Rate=

Deaths of persons 1 week and above but less than 4 weeks
*1000
B
➢ Post Neonatal Mortality Rate =
Deaths of persons 4 weeks and above but less than 52 weeks
*1000
B
Fetal Deaths in a year
➢ Still Birth Rate = *1000
Fetal Deaths in a year + Live Births in a year

FD  28Weeks + D 1Week
➢ Perinatal Mortality Rate = *1000
B + FD  28Weeks
FD≥28 Weeks = Fetal Deaths greater than or equal to 28 weeks in a year
B = Live Births in a year
D˂1 Week = Deaths less than one week in a year

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MIGRATION
The Geographic or spatial mobility involving a relatively permanent change in usual
residence between clearly defined political or statistical units; has dimensions of time and
space.
Some terms common in migration are as follows;
➢ Migrant—A person who moves from one political area to another
➢ In-migrant—A person who moves in a political area within the same country
➢ Immigrant— An international migrant who enters the area from a place outside the
country
➢ Emigrant— An international migrant departing to another country by crossing the
international boundary
➢ Net Migration—In-migrants -Out-migrants
➢ Net Immigration—Immigrants –Emigrants
Note: Net migration for an area often includes both international and internal
migration
➢ Gross Migration—In-migrants + Out-migrants = Migration turnover
Emigrant and Immigrant definition used by demographers
“An immigrant is a person who has resided abroad for a year or more and, on entering the
country, has declared an intention to stay for a year or more”. The opposite is for the
emigrant

However a person moving from one part of a country to another part of the same country is
said to be “In-Migrant to their destination and an “Out-Migrant from their origin.

MIGRATION RATES
I = In-migration
O = Out-migration
P = Midyear Population or Person-years

➢ Net migrations = I – O
➢ Gross migration = I + O
I −O
➢ Migration effectiveness = *1000
I+O

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 I
➢ Crude rate of In-migration = *1000
P
O
➢ Crude rate of Out-migration = *1000
P
I −O
➢ Crude rate of net migration = *1000
P
I +O
➢ Crude rate of gross migration = *1000
P
NOTE: Age Specific Rates on migration can be estimated for all measures of migration.

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