Probability and Statistics

Module 3

Discrete Random Variables and

Probability Distributions

Ch. 4-1
 Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be
able to:
 Interpret the mean and standard deviation for a
discrete random variable
 Use the binomial probability distribution to find
probabilities
 Describe when to apply the binomial distribution

 Use the hypergeometric and Poisson discrete

probability distributions to find probabilities
 Explain covariance and correlation for jointly
distributed discrete random variables
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 4-2
 4.1 Introduction to
Probability Distributions

 Random Variable
 Represents a possible numerical value from

a random experiment
Random
Variables

Discrete Continuous
Random Variable Random Variable

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 4-3
 Discrete Random Variables
 Can only take on a countable number of values
Examples:

 Roll a die twice

Let X be the number of times 4 comes up
(then X could be 0, 1, or 2 times)

 Toss a coin 5 times.

Let X be the number of heads
(then X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5)

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 4-4
 Descrete Probability Distribution

● The probability distribution of a discrete random

variable X relates the values of X with their
corresponding probabilities
● A distribution could be
 In the form of a table
 In the form of a graph
 In the form of a mathematical formula
 4.2
Discrete Probability Distribution
Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Let X = # heads.
Show P(x) , i.e., P(X = x) , for all values of x:

4 possible outcomes
Probability Distribution
T T x Value Probability
0 1/4 = .25
T H 1 2/4 = .50
2 1/4 = .25
H T
Probability

.50

.25
H H
0 1 2 x Ch. 4-6
4.3
Probability Distribution
Required Properties

 P(x)  0 for any value of x

 The individual probabilities sum to 1;

 P(x)  1
x

(The notation indicates summation over all possible x values)

Ch. 4-7
 Cumulative Probability Function

 The cumulative probability function, denoted

F(x0), shows the probability that X is less than or
equal to x0

F(x 0 )  P(X  x 0 )

 In other words,

F(x 0 )   P(x)
xx0

Ch. 4-8
 Expected Value
 Expected Value (or mean) of a discrete
distribution (Weighted Average)
μ  E(X)   xP(x)
x

x P(x)
 Example: Toss 2 coins, 0 .25
x = # of heads, 1 .50

compute expected value of x: 2 .25

E(x) = (0 x .25) + (1 x .50) + (2 x .25)

= 1.0

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 4-9
 Variance and Standard
Deviation
 Variance of a discrete random variable X
2 2 2
σ  E(X  μ)   (x  μ) P(x)
x

 Standard Deviation of a discrete random variable X

σ  σ2   (x  μ) 2
P(x)
x

Ch. 4-10
 Standard Deviation Example

 Example: Toss 2 coins, X = # heads,

compute standard deviation (recall E(x) = 1)

2
σ x
(x  μ) P(x)

σ  (0  1)2 (.25)  (1  1)2 (.50)  (2  1)2 (.25)  .50  .707

Possible number of heads

= 0, 1, or 2

Ch. 4-11
 Example
• We can interpret the relative frequencies as probabilities
– So for any value x, f(x)/n = p(x)
– Assuming that sales remain stable over time

Number of Radios Sold at Sound City

in a Week

Radios, x Probability, p(x)

0 p(0) = 0.03
1 p(1) = 0.20
2 p(2) = 0.50
3 p(3) = 0.20
4 p(4) = 0.05
5 p(5) = 0.02
1.00

Slide 12
 Example
• What is the chance that two radios will be sold in a
week?
– p(x = 2) = 0.50

Slide 13
 Example Continued
• What is the chance that fewer than 2 radios will be sold
in a week?
– p(x < 2) = p(x = 0 or x = 1) Using the addition rule
for the mutually
= p(x = 0) + p(x = 1) exclusive values of
= 0.03 + 0.20 = 0.23 the random variable.

• What is the chance that three or more radios will be

sold in a week?
– p(x ≥ 3) = p(x = 3, 4, or 5)
= p(x = 3) + p(x = 4) + p(x = 5)
= 0.20 + 0.05 + 0.02 = 0.27

Slide 14
 Example: Number of Radios
Sold at Sound City in a Week

• How many radios should be expected to be sold in a

week?
– Let’s calculate the expected value of the number of radios sold,
mX
Radios, x Probability, p(x) x p(x)
0 p(0) = 0.03 0 0.03 = 0.00
1 p(1) = 0.20 1 0.20 = 0.20
2 p(2) = 0.50 2 0.50 = 1.00
3 p(3) = 0.20 3 0.20 = 0.60
4 p(4) = 0.05 4 0.05 = 0.20
5 p(5) = 0.02 5 0.02 = 0.10
1.00 2.10
• On average, we expect to sell 2.1 radios per week

Slide 15
 Example: Number of Radios
Sold at Sound City in a Week

Let us calculate the variance and standard deviation of the number of

radios sold at Sound City in a week

Radios, x Probability, p(x) (x - X)2 p(x)

0 p(0) = 0.03 (0 – 2.1)2 (0.03) = 0.1323
1 p(1) = 0.20 (1 – 2.1)2 (0.20) = 0.2420
2 p(2) = 0.50 (2 – 2.1)2 (0.50) = 0.0050
3 p(3) = 0.20 (3 – 2.1)2 (0.20) = 0.1620
4 p(4) = 0.05 (4 – 2.1)2 (0.05) = 0.1805
5 p(5) = 0.02 (5 – 2.1)2 (0.02) = 0.1682
1.00 0.8900

Variance Standard deviation

 X2  0.89
X  0.890.9434
Slide 16
• A discrete random variable X can assume five possible
values: 2, 3, 5, 8, and 10. Its probability function is
shown in the table:

Slide 17
Slide 18
Slide 19
 Probability Distributions
Probability
Distributions

Ch. 4 Discrete Continuous Ch. 5

Probability Probability
Distributions Distributions

Binomial Uniform

Normal

Poisson Exponential

Ch. 4-20
4.4
The Binomial Distribution
Probability
Distributions

Discrete
Probability
Distributions

Binomial

Poisson

Ch. 4-21
 Bernoulli Distribution

 Consider only two outcomes: “success” or “failure”

 Let P denote the probability of success
 Let 1 – P be the probability of failure
 Define random variable X:
x = 1 if success, x = 0 if failure
 Then the Bernoulli probability function is

P(0)  (1 P) and P(1)  P

Ch. 4-22
 Bernoulli Distribution
Mean and Variance

 The mean is µ = P

μ  E(X)   xP(x)  (0)(1 P)  (1)P  P

X

 The variance is σ2 = P(1 – P)

σ 2  E[(X  μ)2 ]   (x  μ)2 P(x)

X
2 2
 (0  P) (1 P)  (1 P) P  P(1 P)

Ch. 4-23
 Sequences of x Successes
in n Trials

 The number of sequences with x successes in n

independent trials is:

n n!
C 
x
x! (n  x)!
Where n! = n·(n – 1)·(n – 2)· . . . ·1 and 0! = 1

 These sequences are mutually exclusive, since no two

can occur at the same time

Ch. 4-24
 Binomial Probability Distribution
 Binomial random variable is a number of successes
where there are only two possible outcomes.
 e.g., head or tail in each toss of a coin; defective or not defective
light bulb
 Generally called “success” and “failure”
 Probability of success is P , probability of failure is 1 – P
 Constant probability for each observation
 e.g., Probability of getting a tail is the same each time we toss
the coin
 Observations are independent
 The outcome of one observation does not affect the outcome of
the other.

Ch. 4-25
 Possible Binomial Distribution
Settings

 A manufacturing plant labels items as

either defective or acceptable
 A firm bidding for contracts will either get a
contract or not
 A marketing research firm receives survey
responses of “yes I will buy” or “no I will
not”
 New job applicants either accept the offer
or reject it
Ch. 4-26
 Binomial Distribution Formula

n! X n-X
P(x) = P (1- P)
x ! (n  x )!
P(x) = probability of x successes in n trials,
with probability of success P on each trial
Example: Flip a coin four
times, let x = # heads:
x = number of ‘successes’ in sample,
n=4
(x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)
P = 0.5
n = sample size (number of trials
or observations) 1 - P = (1 - 0.5) = 0.5
P = probability of “success” x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4

Ch. 4-27
 Example:
Calculating a Binomial Probability
What is the probability of one success in five
observations if the probability of success is 0.1?
x = 1, n = 5, and P = 0.1

n!
P(x  1)  P X (1 P)n X
x! (n  x)!
5!
 (0.1)1(1 0.1)5 1
1! (5  1)!
 (5)(0.1)(0.9) 4
 .32805
Ch. 4-28
 Binomial Distribution
Mean and Variance

 Mean
μ  E(x)  nP
 Variance and Standard Deviation
2
σ  nP(1- P)
σ  nP(1- P)
Where n = sample size
P = probability of success
(1 – P) = probability of failure

Ch. 4-29
 END

Ch. 4-30