Chapter 6

Probability

1
 Chance Experiment & Sample Space

•A chance experiment is any activity or situation in

which there is uncertainty about which of two or more
possible outcomes will result.

•The collection of all possible outcomes of a chance

experiment is the sample space for the experiment.

2 .
 Example
An experiment is to be performed to study student
preferences in the food line in the cafeteria.
Specifically, the staff wants to analyze the effect of
the student’s gender on the preferred food line
(burger, salad or main entrée).
The sample space consists of the following six possible
outcomes.
1. A male choosing the burger line.
2. A female choosing the burger line.
3. A male choosing the salad line.
4. A female choosing the salad line.
5. A male choosing the main entrée line.
6. A female choosing the main entrée line.

3
 Example - continued
The sample space could be represented by using set
notation and ordered pairs.
sample space = {(male, burger), (female, burger),
(male, salad), (female, salad), (male, main entree),
(female, main entree)}

If we use M to stand for male, F for female, B for

burger, S for salad and E for main entrée the notation
could be simplified to
sample space = {MB, FB, MS, FS, ME, FE}

4 .
 Example - continued
Yet another way of illustrating the sample space would
be using a picture called a ―tree‖ diagram.

Burger
Outcome (Male, Salad)

Salad
Main Entree
Male
Outcome (Female, Burger)

Burger

Salad
Female
Main Entree

This ―tree‖ has two sets of ―branches‖ corresponding to the two bits of
information gathered. To identify any particular outcome of the sample
space, you traverse the tree by first selecting a branch corresponding to
gender and then a branch corresponding to the choice of food line.
5 .
 Events
An event is any collection of outcomes from the sample
space of a chance experiment.

A simple event is an event consisting of exactly one

outcome.

If we look at the lunch line example and use the following sample
space description {MB, FB, MS, FS, ME, FE}
The event that the student selected is male is given by
male = {MB, MS, ME}
The event that the preferred food line is the burger line is given by
burger = {MB, FB}
The event that the person selected is a female that prefers the
salad line is {FS}. This is an example of a simple event.
6 .
 Venn Diagrams
A Venn Diagram is an informal picture that is used to
identify relationships.

The collection of all possible outcomes of a chance

experiment are represented as the interior of a rectangle.

The rectangle represents the

sample space and shaded area
represents the event A.

7 .
 Forming New Events

Let A and B denote two events.

The event not A consists of all experimental outcomes

that are not in event A. Not A is sometimes called the
complement of A and is usually denoted by AC, A’, C(A),
S-A, not A, -A.

The shaded area

represents the event
not A.
8 .
 Forming New Events
Let A and B denote two events.

The event A or B consists of all experimental outcomes

that are in at least one of the two events, that is, in A or
in B or in both of these.

A or B is called the union of the two events and is

denoted by A U B

The shaded area

represents the event
A U B.
9
 Forming New Events
Let A and B denote two events.

The event A or B consists of all experimental outcomes

that are in both of the two events A and B.

A and B is called the intersection of the two events and is

denoted by A ∩ B

The shaded area represents

the event A ∩ B.

10 .
 More on intersections

Two events that have no common outcomes are said

to be disjoint or mutually exclusive.

11
 More than 2 events

Let A1, A2, …, Ak denote k events

•The events A1 or A2 or …or Ak consist of all outcomes
in at least one of the individual events.
A1 U A2 U … U Ak
•The events A1 and A2 and …and Ak consist of all
outcomes that are simultaneously in every one of the
individual events.
A1 ∩ A2 ∩ … ∩ Ak
These k events are disjoint if no two of them have any
common outcomes.
12 .
 Some illustrations

13 .
 example
One of the 200 business majors at a college is to be
chosen for the student senate.
If 77 of these students are enrolled in a course in
accounting, 64 are enrolled in a course of business
law, and 92 are not enrolled in either course, how
many of the outcomes correspond to the choice of a
business major who is enrolled in both courses?

14
 example
In a psychiatric study reported in the New England
Medicine, psychiatrists reported on mental status
evaluations.
Letting A stands for the event that the patients have
auditory delusions and V stand for the event that the
patients have visual delusions, state in words the
probabilities expressed by:
P(A’)
P(V’)
P(A or V)
P(A and V)
P(A’ and V’) P(A and V’)
15 .
 Probability
Methods for Determining Probability
1. The classical approach: Appropriate for
experiments that can be described with equally
likely outcomes.
2. The subjective approach: Probabilities represent
an individual’s judgment based on facts combined
with personal evaluation of other information.
3. The relative frequency approach: An estimate is
based on an accumulation of experimental results.
This estimate, usually derived empirically, presumes
a replicable chance experiment.
16
 Probability – Classical Approach

If a chance experiment has k outcomes, all

equally likely,
then each individual outcome has the
probability 1/k and the probability of an event
E is
number of outcomes favorable to E
P(E)
number of outcomes in the sample space

17 .
 Equally Likely Outcomes

Consider an experiment that can result in any one of N

possible outcomes.
Denote the corresponding simple events by O1, O2,… On.
If these simple events are equally likely to occur, then
1 1 1
1. P(O1 ) ,P(O2 ) , ,P(ON )
N N N
2. For any event E,
number of outcomes in E
P(E)
N
18
 example
Consider the experiment consisting of rolling two fair dice and
observing the sum of the up faces.

A sample space description is given by{(1, 1), (1, 2), … , (6, 6)}
where the pair (1, 2) means 1 is the up face of the 1st die and 2 is
the up face of the 2nd die.

This sample space consists of 36 equally likely outcomes.

•Let E stand for the event that the sum is 6.
•Event E is given by E={(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)}.
The event consists of 5 outcomes, so 5
P(E) 0.1389
36
19
 example
Consider the experiment consisting of randomly picking a card
from an ordinary deck of playing cards (52 card deck).
Let A stand for the event that the card chosen is a King.

The sample space is given by S =

{A , K , ,2 , A , K , , 2 , A , , 2 , A ,…, 2 }
and consists of 52 equally likely outcomes.
The event is given by
A={K , K , K , K }
and consists of 4 outcomes, so

4 1
P(A) 0.0769
20 52 13 .
 Probability - Empirical Approach
•Consider the chance experiment of rolling a ―fair‖ die.
• We would like to investigate the probability of getting a ―1‖ for
the up face of the die.
• The die was rolled and after each roll the up face was recorded
and then the proportion of times that a 1 turned up was
calculated and plotted.
Repeated Rolls of a Fair Die
Proportion of 1's
0.200

0.180
1/6
0.160
Relative Frequency

0.140

0.120

0.100

0.080

0.060

0.040

0.020

0.000
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

# of Rolls
21 .
 Probability - Empirical Approach
•The process was simulated again and this time the result were
similar.
•Notice that the proportion of 1’s seems to stabilize and in the
long run gets closer to the ―theoretical‖ value of 1/6.
Repeated Rolls of a Fair Die
Proportion of 1's
0.350

0.300
Relative Frequency

0.250

0.200

1/6
0.150

0.100

0.050

0.000
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

# of Rolls

22
 Probability - Empirical Approach
In many ―real-life‖ processes and chance experiments,
the probability of a certain outcome or event is unknown,
but never the less this probability can be estimated
reasonably well from observation.
The justification if the Law of Large Numbers.

Law of Large Numbers: As the number of

repetitions of a chance experiment increases, the
chance that the relative frequency of occurrence
for an event will differ from the true probability of
the event by more than any very small number
approaches zero.

23 .
 Relative Frequency Approach

The probability of an event E, denoted by P(E), is

defined to be the value approached by the relative
frequency of occurrence of E in a very long series of
trials of a chance experiment.
Thus, if the number of trials is quite large,

number of times E occurs

P(E)
number of trials

24 .
 example

Records show that 34 of 956 persons who recently

visited Central Africa came down with malaria. What is
the probability that a person who visits Central Africa
at about the same time of the year will not catch the
disease?

25 .
6.15 An article in the New York Times ( March 2,
1994) reported that people who suffer cardiac arrest
in New York City have only a 1 in 100 chance of
survival. Using probability notation, an equivalent
statement would be P( survival) = .01 for people who
suffer a cardiac arrest in New York City. ( The article
attributed this poor survival rate to factors common in large cities: traffic
congestion and the difficulty of finding victims in large buildings.)

a. Give a relative frequency interpretation of the given probability.

b. The research that was the basis for the New York Times article was a
study of 2329 consecutive cardiac arrests in NYC. To justify the ― 1 in 100
chance of survival‖ statement, how many of the 2329 cardiac arrest
sufferers do you think survived? Explain.

26
 6.16 The article ― Anxiety Increases for Airline
Passengers After Plane Crash‖ ( San Luis Obispo
Tribune, November 13, 2001) reported that air
passengers have a 1 in 11 million chance of dying in
an airplane crash.

This probability was then interpreted as ― You could

fly every day for 26,000 years before your number
was up.‖

Comment on why this probability interpretation is

misleading.

27 .
 Basic Properties of Probability

1. For any event E, 0 P(E) 1.

2. If S is the sample space for an experiment, P(S)=1.

3. If two events E and F are disjoint, then

P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F).

4. For any event E,

P(E) + P(not E) = 1

so,
P(not E) = 1 – P(E) and P(E) = 1 – P(not E).

28
 Addition Rule for Disjoint Events

Let E and F be two disjoint events.

P(E U F)= P(E) + P(F)

More Generally, if E1, E2 ,…,Ek are disjoint, then

P(E1 U E2 U … U Ek)= P(E1) + P(E2) + P(Ek)

29
 Example
Consider the experiment consisting of rolling two fair dice and
observing the sum of the up faces.
Let E stand for the event that the sum is 7 and
F stand for the event that the sum is 11.

6 2
P(E) & P(F)
36 36
Since E and F are disjoint events
6 2 8
P(E F) P(E) P(F)
36 36 36

30
 Conditional Probability
A Leading Example
A study1 was performed to look at the relationship
between motion sickness and seat position in a bus.
The following table summarizes the data.
Seat Position in Bus
Front Middle Back
Nausea 58 166 193
No Nausea 870 1163 806

Let’s use the symbols N, NC, F, M, B to stand for the events Nausea,
No Nausea, Front, Middle and Back respectively.
1 ―Motion Sickness in Public Road Transport: The Effect of Driver, Route and Vehicle‖
(Ergonomics (1999): 1646 – 1664).
31
 A Leading Example
Computing the probability that an individual in the study
gets nausea we have

417
P(N) 0.128
3256

Seat Position in Bus

Front Middle Back Total
Nausea 58 166 193 417
No Nausea 870 1163 806 2839
Total 928 1329 999 3256

32
 A Leading Example
Other probabilities are easily calculated by dividing the
numbers in the cells by 3256 to get

P(N)
P(N and F)
Seat Position in Bus
Front Middle Back Total
Nausea 0.018 0.051 0.059 0.128
No Nausea 0.267 0.357 0.248 0.872
Total 0.285 0.408 0.307 1.000

P(F) P(M and NC)

33 .
 A Leading Example

The event ―a person got nausea given he/she sat in the

front seat‖ is an example of what is called a conditional
probability.

Of the 928 people who sat in the front, 58 got

nausea so the probability that ―a person got nausea
given he/she sat in the front seat is
58
0.0625
928

34
 Conditional Probability

•Let E and F be two events with P(F) > 0. The

conditional probability of the event E given that
the event F has occurred, denoted by P(E|F), is

P(E F)
P(E | F)
P(F)

P(E | F) stands for the ―probability of E given F.

35
 example
A survey of job satisfaction2 of teachers was taken, giving
the following results
Job Satisfaction
Satisfied Unsatisfied Total
L College 74 43
E
117
V High School 224 171 395
E
L Elementary 126 140 266
Total 424 354 778

For convenience, let C stand for the event that the teacher
teaches college, S stand for the teacher being satisfied and
so on.
2 ―Psychology of the Scientist: Work Related Attitudes of U.S. Scientists‖ (Psychological
Reports (1991): 443 – 450).
36
 If all the cells are divided Job Satisfaction
by the total number Satisfied Unsatisfied Total
L College 0.095 0.055 0.150
surveyed, 778, the E
resulting table is a table V High School 0.288 0.220 0.508
E
of empirically derived L Elementary 0.162 0.180 0.342
probabilities.
Total 0.545 0.455 1.000

P(C) 0.150 is the proportion of teachers who are

college teachers.
P(S) 0.545 is the proportion of teachers who are
satisfied with their job.

P(C S) 0.095 is the proportion of teachers who are

college teachers and who are satisfied
37 with their job.
 •The proportion of Job Satisfaction
teachers who are Satisfied Unsatisfied Total
L College 0.095 0.055
college teachers given E
0.150
V High School 0.288 0.220 0.508
they are satisfied is E
L Elementary 0.162 0.180 0.342
Total 0.545 0.455 1.000
P(C S) 0.095
P(C | S) 0.175
P(S) 0.545
Restated:This is the proportion of satisfied that are college teachers.

•The proportion of teachers who are satisfied given

they are college teachers is
P(S C) P(C S)
P(S | C)
P(C) P(C)
0.095
0.632
0.150
Restated: This is the proportion of college teachers that are satisfied.
38
 6.31 The newspaper article ― Folic Acid Might Reduce Risk of
Down Syndrome‖ ( USA Today, September 29, 1999) makes
the following statement: ― Older women are at a greater risk of
giving birth to a baby with Down Syndrome than are younger
women. But younger women are more fertile, so most children
with Down Syndrome are born to mothers under 30.‖

Let D = event that a randomly selected baby is born with Down Syndrome
and Y event that a randomly selected baby is born to a young mother ( under
age 30). For each of the following probability statements, indicate whether
the statement is consistent with the quote from the article, and if not, explain
why not.
a. P(D/Y) = .001, P(D/ Y’) = .004, P(Y)= .7
b. P(D/Y) = .001, P(D/ Y’) = .001, P(Y)= .7
c. P(D/Y) = .004, P(D/ Y’) = .004, P(Y)= .7
d. P(D/Y) = .001, P(D/ Y’) = .004, P(Y)= .4
e. P(D/Y) = .001, P(D/ Y’) = .001, P(Y)= .4
f. P(D/Y) = .004, P(D/ Y’) = .004, P(Y)= .4
39
 6.39 The paper ― Good for Women, Good for Men, Bad for
People: Simpson’s Paradox and the Importance of Sex-
Specific Analysis in Observational Studies‖ (Journal of
Women’s Health and Gender- Based Medicine [ 2001]: 867–
872) described the results of a medical study in which one
treatment was shown to be better for men and better for
women than a competing treatment. However, if the data for
men and women are combined, it appears as though the
competing treatment is better.

To see how this can happen, consider the accompanying data tables
constructed from information in the paper.
Subjects in the study were given either Treatment A or Treatment B,
and survival was noted.
Let S be the event that a patient selected at random survives, A be the
event that a patient selected at random received Treatment A, and B
be the event that a patient selected at random received Treatment B.

40
Subjects in the study were given either Treatment A or Treatment B, and
survival was noted.

Let S be the event that a patient selected at random survives, A be the event
that a patient selected at random received Treatment A, and B be the event that
a patient selected at random received Treatment B.. The following table
summarizes data for men and women combined:
survived died total
txA 215 85 300
txB 241 59 300
total 456 144

i. Find P( S)
ii. Find P(S/A)
iii. Find P(S/B)
iv. Which treatment appears to be better?
41
 Independence
Two events E and F are said to be independent if
P(E|F)=P(E).

If E and F are not independent, they are said to be

dependent events.

If P(E|F) = P(E), it is also true that P(F|E) = P(F) and vice

versa.

42
 example
Job Satisfaction
Satisfied Unsatisfied Total
L College 0.095 0.055
E
0.150
V High School 0.288 0.220 0.508
E
L Elementary 0.162 0.180 0.342
Total 0.545 0.455 1.000

P(C S) 0.095
P(C) 0.150 and P(C | S) 0.175
P(S) 0.545

P(C|S) P(C) so C and S are dependent events.

43
 Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

The events E and F are independent if and only if

P(E∩F) = P(E)P(F).

That is, independence implies the relation

P(E ∩ F) = P(E)P(F),
and this relation implies independence.

44
 example
Consider the person who purchases from two different
manufacturers a TV and a VCR. Suppose we define the
events A and B by
A = event the TV doesn’t work properly
B = event the VCR doesn’t work properly

Suppose P(A) = 0.01 and P(B) = 0.02.

If we assume that the events A and B are independent3, then

P(A ∩ B) = (0.01)(0.02) = 0.0002

3 This assumption seems to be a reasonable assumption since the

manufacturers are different.
45
 example
Consider the teacher satisfaction survey
Job Satisfaction
Satisfied Unsatisfied Total
L College 0.095 0.055
E
0.150
V High School 0.288 0.220 0.508
E
L Elementary 0.162 0.180 0.658
Total 0.545 0.455 1.000

P(C) = 0.150, P(S) = 0.545 and P(CS) = 0.095

Since P(C)P(S) = (0.150)(0.545) = 0.08175

and P(C∩S) = 0.095, P(C∩S) ≠P(C)P(S).
This shows that C and S are dependent events.
46
6.46 The Australian newspaper The Mercury ( May 30, 1995)
reported that, based on a survey of 600 reformed and current
smokers, 11.3% of those who had attempted to quit smoking in
the previous 2 years had used a nicotine aid (such as a nicotine
patch).
It also reported that 62% of those who quit smoking without a
nicotine aid began smoking again within 2 weeks and 60% of
those who used a nicotine aid began smoking again within 2
weeks.
If a smoker who is trying to quit smoking is selected at random,
are the events: selected smoker who is trying to quit uses a
nicotine aid and selected smoker who has attempted to quit
begins smoking again within 2 weeks independent or
dependent events? Justify your answer using the given
information.

47
 Sampling Schemes

Sampling is with replacement if, once selected, an

individual or object is put back into the population before
the next selection.

Sampling is without replacement if, once selected, an

individual or object is not returned to the population prior
to subsequent selections.

48
 example
Select three cards from an ordinary deck of cards.
Consider the events:

E1 = event that the first card is a king

E2 = event that the second card is a king

E3 = event that the third card is a king.

With Replacement Without Replacement

4 4 3 2
P(E1 ) P(E 2 ) P(E3 ) P(E1 ) , P(E2 ) , P(E3 )
52 52 51 50
P(E1 E2 E3 ) P(E1 )P(E2 )P(E3 ) P(E1 E2 E3 ) P(E1 )P(E2 )P(E3 )
4 4 4 4 3 2
0.000455 0.000181
52 52 52 52 51 50
49
 A Practical Example
Suppose a jury pool in a city contains 12000 potential
jurors and 3000 of them are black women. Consider
the events
E1 = event that the first juror selected is a black
woman
E2 = event that the second juror selected is a black
woman
E3 = event that the third juror selected is a black
woman
E4 = event that the forth juror selected is a black
woman
50
 A Practical Example

Clearly the sampling will be without replacement so

3000 2999
P(E1 ) , P(E2 ) ,
12000 11999
2998 2997
P(E3 ) ,P(E 4 )
11998 11997

So P(E1 E2 E3 E4 )
3000 2999 2998 2997
0.003900
12000 11999 11998 11997
51
 A Practical Example
If we ―treat‖ the Events E1, E2, E3 and E4 as being with
replacement (independent) we would get

3000
P(E1 ) P(E 2 ) P(E3 ) 0.25
12000
So P(E1 E2 E3 E4 ) (0.25)(0.25)(0.25)(0.25)
0.003906

Notice the result calculate by sampling without replacement is 0.003900

and the result calculated by sampling with replacement is 0.003906.
These results are substantially the same.

Clearly when the number of items is large and the number in the sample
is small, the two methods give essentially the same result.
52
 An Observation

If a random sample of size n is taken from a population of

size N, the theoretical probabilities of successive
selections calculated on the basis of sampling with
replacement and on the basis of sample without
replacement differ by insignificant amounts under suitable
circumstances.
Typically independence is assumed for the purposes of
calculating probabilities when the sample size n is less
than 5% of the population size N.

53
 General Addition Rule for Two Events

For any two events E and F,

P(E F) P(E) P(F) P(E F)

54
 example
Consider the teacher satisfaction survey
Job Satisfaction
Satisfied Unsatisfied Total
L College 0.095 0.055
E
0.150
V High School 0.288 0.220 0.508
E
L Elementary 0.162 0.180 0.658
Total 0.545 0.455 1.000

P(C) = 0.150, P(S) = 0.545 and

P(C∩S) = 0.095,
So
P(CUS) = P(C)+P(S) -P(C ∩ S) =
0.150 + 0.545 -0.095= 0.600
55
 General Multiplication Rule

For any two events E and F,

P(E F) P(E | F)P(F)

From symmetry we also have

P(E F) P(F | E)P(E)

56
 Example
18% of all employees in a large company are secretaries
and furthermore, 35% of the secretaries are male . If an
employee from this company is randomly selected, what is
the probability the employee will be a secretary and also
male.

Let E stand for the event the employee is male.

Let F stand for the event the employee is a secretary.
The question can be answered by noting that
P(F) = 0.18 and P(E|F) = 0.35 so

P(E F) P(E | F)P(F) (0.35)(0.18) 0.063

57
 Bayes Rule

If B1 and B2 are disjoint events with

P(B1) + P(B2) = 1, then for any event E
P(E | B1 )
P(B1 | E)
P(E | B1 )P(B1 ) P(E | B2 )P(B2 )

More generally, if B1, B2, , Bk are disjoint events with

P(B1) + P(B2) + P(Bk) = 1, then for any event E
P(E | Bi )
P(Bi | E)
P(E | B1 )P(B1 ) P(E | B2 )P(B2 ) P(E | Bk )P(Bk )

58
 example
A company that makes radios, uses three different
subcontractors (A, B and C) to supply on switches used in
assembling a radio. 50% of the switches come from company
A, 35% of the switches come from company B and 15% of the
switches come from company C. Furthermore, it is known that
1% of the switches that company A supplies are defective, 2%
of the switches that company B supplies are defective and 5%
of the switches that company C supplies are defective.
If a radio from this company was inspected and failed the
inspection because of a defective on switch, what are the
probabilities that that switch came from each of the suppliers.

59
 example - continued
Define the events
S1 = event that the on switch came from
subcontractor A
S2 = event that the on switch came from
subcontractor B
S3 = event that the on switch came from
subcontractor C
D = event the on switch was defective
From the problem statement we have
P(S1) = 0.5, P(S2) = 0.35 , P(S3) = 0.15
P(D|S1) =0.01, P(D|S2) =0.02, P(D|S3) =0.05
60
 Example - continued

P(Switch came from supplier A given it was

defective) =
P(D | S 1 )
P(S 1 | D)
P(D | S 1 )P(S 1 ) P(D | S 2 )P(S 2 ) P(D | S 3 )P(S 3 )
(.5)(.01)
(.5)(.01) (.35)(.02) (.15)(.05)
.005 .005
.256
.005 .007 .0075 .0195

Similarly,
(.35)(.02) (.15)(.05)
P(S3 | D) .359 and P(S2 | D) .385
.0195 .0195

61
 Example - continued
These calculations show that 25.6% of the on defective
switches are supplied by subcontractor A, 35.9% of the
defective on switches are supplied by subcontractor B
and 38.5% of the defective on switches are supplied by
subcontractor C.

Even though subcontractor C supplies only a small

proportion (15%) of the switches, it supplies a
reasonably large proportion of the defective switches
(38.9%).

62
 6.65 In an article that appears on the web site of the
American Statistical Association ( www. amstat. org), Carl-ton
Gunn, a public defender in Seattle, Washington, wrote about
how he uses statistics in his work as an attorney.
He states: I personally have used statistics in trying to
challenge the reliability of drug testing results. Suppose the
chance of a mistake in the taking and processing of a urine
sample for a drug test is just 1 in 100. And your client has a ―
dirty‖ (i. e., positive) test result. Only a 1 in 100 chance that it
could be wrong? Not necessarily. If the vast majority of all
tests given— say 99 in 100 — are truly clean, then you get
one false dirty and one true dirty in every 100 tests, so that
half of the dirty tests are false.

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 Define the following events as
TD= event that the test result is dirty,
TC =event that the test result is clean,
D = event that the person tested is actually dirty, and
C = event that the person tested is actually clean.
a. Using the information in the quote, what are the values of
i. P(TD/D)
ii. P(TD/C)
iii. P(C)
iv. P(D)
b. Use the law of total probability to find P( TD).
c. Use Bayes’ rule to evaluate P(C/TD). Is this value
consistent with the argument given in the quote? Explain.

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 6.68 Suppose that a new Internet company Mumble. com requires all
employees to take a drug test. Mumble. com can afford only the
inexpensive drug test— the one with a 5% false- positive rate and a 10%
false- negative rate. ( That means that 5% of those who are not using
drugs will incorrectly test positive and that 10% of those who are actually
using drugs will test negative.)
Suppose that 10% of those who work for Mumble. com are using the drugs
for which Mumble is checking. ( Hint: It may be helpful to draw a tree
diagram to answer the questions that follow.)
a. If one employee is chosen at random, what is the probability that the
employee both uses drugs and tests positive?
b. If one employee is chosen at random, what is the probability that the
employee does not use drugs but tests postive anyway?
c. If one employee is chosen at random, what is the probability that the
employee tests positive? d. If we know that a randomly chosen employee
has tested positive, what is the probability that he or she uses drugs?

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 6.69 Refer to Exercise 6.68. Suppose that because of the high rate of
false- positives for the drug test, Mumble. com has instituted a mandatory
second test for those who test positive on the first test.
a. If one employee is selected at random, what is the probability that the
selected employee uses drugs and tests positive twice?
b. If one employee is selected at random, what is the probability that the
employee tests positive twice?
c. If we know that the randomly chosen employee has tested positive
twice, what is the probability that he or she uses drugs?
d. What is the chance that an individual who does use drugs doesn’t test
positive twice ( either this employee tests negative on the first round and
doesn’t need a retest, or this employee tests positive the first time and
that result is followed by a negative result on the retest)?
e. Discuss the benefits and drawbacks of using a retest scheme such as
the one proposed in Part ( d).

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 6.70 According to a study released by the federal Sub-stance
Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration ( Knight
Ridder Tribune, September 9, 1999), approximately 8% of all
adult full- time workers are drug users and approximately
70% of adult drug users are employed full- time.
a. Is it possible for both of the reported percentages to be
correct? Explain.
b. Define the events D and E as D event that a randomly
selected adult is a drug user and E event that a randomly
selected adult is employed full- time. What are the estimated
values of and ?
c. Is it possible to determine P( D), the probability that a
randomly selected adult is a drug user, from the information
given? If not, what additional information would be needed?

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 6.74 Only 0.1% of the individuals in a certain population have a
particular disease ( an incidence rate of .001). Of those who have
the disease, 95% test positive when a certain diagnostic test is
applied. Of those who do not have the disease, 90% test negative
when the test is applied. Suppose that an individual from this
population is randomly selected and given the test.
a. Construct a tree diagram having two first- generation branches,
for has disease and doesn’t have disease, and two second-
generation branches leading out from each of these, for positive
test and negative test. Then enter appropriate probabilities on the
four branches.
b. Use the general multiplication rule to calculate P( has disease
and positive test).
c. Calculate P( positive test).
d. Calculate P( has disease positive test). Does the result surprise
you? Give an intuitive explanation for the size of this probability.

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 6.43 A Gallup survey of 2002 adults found that 46% of women and 37% of
men experience pain daily ( San Luis Obispo Tribune, April 6, 2000).
Suppose that this information is representative of U. S. adults. If a U. S.
adult is selected at random, are the events selected adult is male and
selected adult experiences pain daily independent or de-pendent? Explain.

6.44 The Associated Press ( San Luis Obispo Telegram- Tribune, August
23, 1995) reported on the results of mass screening of schoolchildren for
tuberculosis ( TB). For Santa Clara County, California, the proportion of all
tested kindergartners who were found to have TB was .0006. The
corresponding proportion for recent immigrants ( thought to be a high- risk
group) was .0075. Suppose that a Santa Clara County kindergartner is
selected at random. Are the events selected student is a recent immigrant
and selected student has TB independent or dependent events? Justify
your answer using the given information .

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