Months 2017 2018 2019 SI production day

1 110 115 120 0.701695 25

2 125 135 150 0.833898 22
3 140 145 160 0.905085 27
4 140 155 165 0.935593 23
5 170 180 195 1.108475 25
6 200 220 240 1.342373 27
7 190 210 225 1.271186 25
8 185 200 205 1.2 25
9 160 170 190 1.057627 27
10 150 160 180 0.99661 25
11 130 140 150 0.854237 26
12 120 130 140 0.79322 24
13 115 301
14 135
15 145
16 155
17 180 Group
18 220
19 210
20 200
21 170
22 160
23 140
24 130
25 120
26 150
27 160
28 165
29 195
30 240
31 225
32 205
33 190
34 180
35 150
36 140
._.
Achariya Loylerdrit
Pattranit Argharn
Chayanan Khunchara Na Ayudhaya
Chantarapan Sae-Wang
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.342622
R Square 0.11739
Adjusted R 0.091431
Standard E 32.06439
Observatio 36

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 4649.292 4649.292 4.522106 0.0408
Residual 34 34956.26 1028.125
Total 35 39605.56

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Intercept 143.6508 10.91476 13.16115 6.692E-15 121.4693 165.8323 121.4693
Month 1.093951 0.514431 2.126524 0.0408 0.048501 2.139402 0.048501

RESIDUAL OUTPUT PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Demand
Residuals
Standard Residuals Percentile Demand
1 144.7447 -34.74474 -1.099412 1.388889 110
2 145.8387 -20.8387 -0.65939 4.166667 115
3 146.9326 -6.932647 -0.219367 6.944444 120
4 148.0266 -8.026598 -0.253982 9.722222 120
5 149.1205 20.87945 0.660679 12.5 125
6 150.2145 49.7855 1.57534 15.27778 130
7 151.3085 38.69155 1.224299 18.05556 130
8 152.4024 32.5976 1.031471 20.83333 135
9 153.4964 6.503647 0.205792 23.61111 140
10 154.5903 -4.590305 -0.145249 26.38889 140
11 155.6843 -25.68426 -0.812715 29.16667 140
12 156.7782 -36.77821 -1.163756 31.94444 140
13 157.8722 -42.87216 -1.356585 34.72222 145
14 158.9661 -23.96611 -0.758349 37.5 150
15 160.0601 -15.06006 -0.476539 40.27778 150
16 161.154 -6.154011 -0.194729 43.05556 150
17 162.248 17.75204 0.56172 45.83333 155
18 163.3419 56.65809 1.792807 48.61111 160
19 164.4359 45.56414 1.441766 51.38889 160
20 165.5298 34.47018 1.090725 54.16667 160
21 166.6238 3.376233 0.106833 56.94444 165
22 167.7177 -7.717718 -0.244208 59.72222 170
23 168.8117 -28.81167 -0.911675 62.5 170
24 169.9056 -39.90562 -1.262716 65.27778 180
25 170.9996 -50.99957 -1.613757 68.05556 180
26 172.0935 -22.09352 -0.699095 70.83333 185
27 173.1875 -13.18747 -0.417285 73.61111 190
28 174.2814 -9.281424 -0.293688 76.38889 190
29 175.3754 19.62462 0.620973 79.16667 195
30 176.4693 63.53067 2.010273 81.94444 200
31 177.5633 47.43672 1.501019 84.72222 200
32 178.6572 26.34277 0.833553 87.5 205
33 179.7512 10.24882 0.324299 90.27778 210
34 180.8451 -0.845131 -0.026742 93.05556 220
35 181.9391 -31.93908 -1.010634 95.83333 225
36 183.033 -43.03303 -1.361675 98.61111 240
 Month Residual Plot
100
50

Residuals
0
-50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
-100
Month
Month Line Fit Plot
300

250

Upper 95.0% 200

165.8323 Dem
Demand

150
2.139402 Pred
100

50

0 Normal Probability Plot

0 5 10 15 300 20 25 30 35 40

200Month
Demand

100
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Sample Percentile
 Demand
Predicted Demand

robability Plot
0 35 40

60 80 100 120
mple Percentile
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.915143
R Square 0.837487
Adjusted R 0.832708
Standard E 4.315292
Observatio 36

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 3262.802 3262.802 175.2146 5.679E-15
Residual 34 633.1394 18.62175
Total 35 3895.941

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Intercept 146.9349 1.468931 100.0285 1.379E-43 143.9497 149.9201 143.9497
Month 0.916431 0.069233 13.23686 5.679E-15 0.775732 1.05713 0.775732

RESIDUAL OUTPUT PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Deseason
Residuals
Standard Residuals Percentile Deseason
1 147.8513 8.911941 2.09535 1.388889 148.9899
2 148.7678 1.130598 0.265823 4.166667 149.4667
3 149.6842 4.997441 1.174984 6.944444 149.6377
4 150.6006 -0.962957 -0.226408 9.722222 149.8984
5 151.5171 1.846845 0.434225 12.5 150.5102
6 152.4335 -3.443601 -0.80965 15.27778 151.2821
7 153.3499 -3.883264 -0.913022 18.05556 151.2821
8 154.2664 -0.099696 -0.02344 20.83333 152.1825
9 155.1828 -3.900742 -0.917131 23.61111 153.3639
10 156.0992 -5.58902 -1.314075 26.38889 154.1667
11 157.0157 -4.833116 -1.136349 29.16667 154.6816
12 157.9321 -6.650035 -1.563538 31.94444 156.7633
13 158.8485 5.040371 1.185078 34.72222 160.206
14 159.7649 2.125295 0.499693 37.5 160.5442
15 160.6814 -0.475388 -0.111772 40.27778 160.7372
16 161.5978 4.072479 0.95751 43.05556 161.8902
17 162.5142 -0.128921 -0.030312 45.83333 162.3853
18 163.4307 0.458216 0.107734 48.61111 163.8889
19 164.3471 0.852896 0.20053 51.38889 163.8889
20 165.2635 1.403131 0.3299 54.16667 163.8889
21 166.18 -5.442787 -1.279693 56.94444 163.8889
22 167.0964 -6.55218 -1.54053 59.72222 165.2
23 168.0128 -4.12394 -0.969609 62.5 165.6703
24 168.9293 -5.040371 -1.185078 65.27778 166.6667
25 169.8457 1.168802 0.274805 68.05556 170.8333
26 170.7621 9.115927 2.143311 70.83333 171.0145
27 171.6786 5.100473 1.199209 73.61111 175.5952
28 172.595 3.763711 0.884913 76.38889 175.9174
29 173.5114 2.406016 0.565696 79.16667 176.3587
30 174.4278 4.360032 1.025118 81.94444 176.4957
31 175.3443 1.655722 0.389289 84.72222 176.779
32 176.2607 -5.427376 -1.276069 87.5 177
33 177.1771 2.470296 0.580809 90.27778 178.7879
34 178.0936 2.518674 0.592183 93.05556 179.6474
35 179.01 -3.414764 -0.80287 95.83333 179.878
36 179.9264 -3.430707 -0.806618 98.61111 180.6122
 Month Residual Plot
15
10 Month Line Fit Plot
Residuals
5 200
0 150

Deseason
-5 0 5 100 10 15 20 25 30 35 Deseason
40
-10 50 Predicted Deseason
0 Month
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Month

Upper 95.0%
149.9201
1.05713
Normal Probability Plot
200
150
Deseason

100
50
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 1
Sample Percentile
eason
dicted Deseason

bility Plot

0 80 100 120
rcentile
Month Demand SI LT Deseason
1 110 0.701694915254 144.744744744745 156.763285024
2 125 0.833898305085 145.838695838696 149.898373984
3 140 0.905084745763 146.932646932647 154.68164794
4 140 0.935593220339 148.026598026598 149.637681159
5 170 1.108474576271 149.120549120549 153.363914373
6 200 1.342372881356 150.2145002145 148.98989899
7 190 1.271186440678 151.308451308451 149.466666667
8 185 1.2 152.402402402402 154.166666667
9 160 1.057627118644 153.496353496353 151.282051282
10 150 0.996610169492 154.590304590305 150.510204082
11 130 0.854237288136 155.684255684256 152.182539683
12 120 0.793220338983 156.778206778207 151.282051282
13 115 0.701694915254 157.872157872158 163.888888889
14 135 0.833898305085 158.966108966109 161.890243902
15 145 0.905084745763 160.06006006006 160.205992509
16 155 0.935593220339 161.154011154011 165.670289855
17 180 1.108474576271 162.247962247962 162.385321101
18 220 1.342372881356 163.341913341913 163.888888889
19 210 1.271186440678 164.435864435864 165.2
20 200 1.2 165.529815529816 166.666666667
21 170 1.057627118644 166.623766623767 160.737179487
22 160 0.996610169492 167.717717717718 160.544217687
23 140 0.854237288136 168.811668811669 163.888888889
24 130 0.793220338983 169.90561990562 163.888888889
25 120 0.701694915254 170.999570999571 171.014492754
26 150 0.833898305085 172.093522093522 179.87804878
27 160 0.905084745763 173.187473187473 176.779026217
28 165 0.935593220339 174.281424281424 176.358695652
29 195 1.108474576271 175.375375375375 175.917431193
30 240 1.342372881356 176.469326469326 178.787878788
31 225 1.271186440678 177.563277563278 177
32 205 1.2 178.657228657229 170.833333333
33 190 1.057627118644 179.75117975118 179.647435897
34 180 0.996610169492 180.845130845131 180.612244898
35 150 0.854237288136 181.939081939082 175.595238095
36 140 0.793220338983 183.033033033033 176.495726496
37 0.701694915254 184.126984126984
38 0.833898305085 185.220935220935
39 0.905084745763 186.314886314886
40 0.935593220339 187.408837408837
41 1.108474576271 188.502788502789
42 1.342372881356 189.59673959674
43 1.271186440678 190.690690690691
44 1.2 191.784641784642
45 1.057627118644 192.878592878593
46 0.996610169492 193.972543972544
47 0.854237288136 195.066495066495
48 0.793220338983 196.160446160446
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.342622
R Square 0.11739
Adjusted R 0.091431
Standard E 32.06439
Observatio 36

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 1 4649.292149292 4649.29214929214 4.52210613128
Residual 34 34956.26340626 1028.12539430187
Total 35 39605.55555556

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 143.6508 10.91476019587 13.161149770851 6.6917171E-15
Month 1.093951 0.5144314737 2.12652442527124 0.0407996222

Month Line Fit Plot

300
250
200
Demand
Demand

150
Predicted Demand
100
50
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Month
 LT Deseason LT Season
147.851344512037 103.74653666
148.767775619286 124.05719594
149.684206726534 135.47689219
150.600637833783 140.90093574
151.517068941032 167.95281879
152.43350004828 204.62259667
153.349931155529 194.93635316
154.266362262778 185.11963472
155.182793370026 164.12553062
156.099224477275 155.57007456
157.015655584524 134.12862782
157.932086691772 125.27494334
158.848517799021 111.46319724
159.76494890627 133.2277201
160.681380013518 145.43026598
161.597811120767 151.18981651
162.514242228016 180.14290579
163.430673335265 219.38490387
164.347104442513 208.91581073
165.263535549762 198.31624266
166.179966657011 175.75643931
167.096397764259 166.5299693
168.012828871508 143.52282331
168.929259978757 133.99812486
169.845691086005 119.17985781
170.762122193254 142.39824427
171.678553300503 155.38363977
172.594984407751 161.47869728
173.511415515 192.33299279
174.427846622249 234.14721106
175.344277729497 222.8952683
176.260708836746 211.5128506
177.177139943995 187.38734801
178.093571051243 177.48986403
179.010002158492 152.91701879
179.926433265741 142.72130639
180.842864372989 126.89651839
181.759295480238 151.56876843
182.675726587487 165.33701356
183.592157694735 171.76757805
184.508588801984 204.52307979
185.425019909233 248.90951825
186.341451016482 236.87472587
187.25788212373 224.70945855
188.174313230979 199.01825671
189.090744338228 188.44975876
190.007175445476 162.31121428
190.923606552725 151.44448791
 Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R
Standard E
Observatio

ANOVA
Significance F
0.0407996222014677 Regression
Residual
Total

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0% Coefficient
121.469332172213 165.83225513 121.4693 165.8323 Intercept
0.04850055610427 2.1394016318 0.048501 2.139402 Month

200
180
160
Demand 140
Predicted Demand 120

Deseason
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 5
Regression Statistics
0.915143
0.837487
0.832708
4.315292
36

df SS MS F Significance F
1 3262.802 3262.802 175.2146 5.679E-15
34 633.1394 18.62175
35 3895.941

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
146.9349 1.468931 100.0285 1.379E-43 143.9497 149.9201 143.9497 149.9201
0.916431 0.069233 13.23686 5.679E-15 0.775732 1.05713 0.775732 1.05713

Month Line Fit Plot

200
180
160
140
120
Deseason
100
Predicted Deseason
80
60
40
20
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Month
per 95.0%
Months productionDemand per day
1 25 185.36631051026
2 22 163.122353249029
3 27 200.195615351081
4 23 170.537005669439
5 25 185.36631051026
6 27 200.195615351081
7 25 185.36631051026
8 25 185.36631051026
9 27 200.195615351081
10 25 185.36631051026
11 26 192.78096293067
12 24 177.95165808985
301

Average Requirement 7.414652

Time for requirement 118.6344
Number of labors 14.8293
wage per day 10
Inventory cost per unit 5

cost inventory carrying 1245.629

cost regular-time labor 44636.21
Total cost 45881.8
LT Season (Demand Forecast) Monthly Inventory Change Ending Inventory
126.896518390538 58.4697921197216 58.4697921197216
151.568768434368 11.5535848146607 70.0233769343824
165.337013555454 34.8586017956266 104.881978730009
171.7675780466 -1.23057237716083 103.651406352848
204.523079790674 -19.156769280414 84.4946370724342
248.909518251038 -48.7139028999572 35.780734172477
236.874725868409 -51.5084153581488 -15.7276811856718
224.709458548476 -39.3431480382162 -55.070829223888
199.018256705306 1.17735864577432 -53.8934705781137
188.4497587642 -3.08344825393971 -56.9769188320534
162.311214278848 30.4697486518229 -26.5071701802306
151.444487909619 26.5071701802305 0
2231.81037854353 249.125855381915
Months production day Demand per day
1 25 5.07586073562153
2 22 6.88948947428946
3 27 6.12359309464645
4 23 7.46815556724348
5 25 8.18092319162696
6 27 9.21887104633474
7 25 9.47498903473635
8 25 8.98837834193905
9 27 7.37104654464098
10 25 7.53799035056799
11 26 6.2427390107249
12 24 6.31018699623413
301

In-house production 1527.83408142208

Subcontract units 703.976297121448
Number of labors 12.2471861892929
wage per day 10

cost regular-time labor 36864.0304297716

Subcontract cost 35198.8148560724
Total cost 72062.8452858441
LT Season (Demand Forecast)
126.896518390538
151.568768434368
165.337013555454
171.7675780466
204.523079790674
248.909518251038
236.874725868409
224.709458548476
199.018256705306
188.4497587642
162.311214278848
151.444487909619
2231.81037854353
Months productionDemand per day
1 25 185.36631051026
2 22 163.122353249029
3 27 200.195615351081
4 23 170.537005669439
5 25 185.36631051026
6 27 200.195615351081
7 25 185.36631051026
8 25 185.36631051026
9 27 200.195615351081
10 25 185.36631051026
11 26 192.78096293067
12 24 177.95165808985
301

Average Requirement 7.414652

Time for requirement 118.6344
Number of labors 7.414652
wage per day 10
Inventory cost per unit 5
Overtime cost 20

cost inventory carrying 1245.629

cost regular-time labor 22318.1
Overtime labor cost 44636.21
Total cost 68199.9
LT Season (Demand Forecast) Monthly Inventory Change Ending Inventory
126.896518390538 58.4697921197216 58.4697921197216
151.568768434368 11.5535848146607 70.0233769343824
165.337013555454 34.8586017956266 104.881978730009
171.7675780466 -1.23057237716083 103.651406352848
204.523079790674 -19.156769280414 84.4946370724342
248.909518251038 -48.7139028999572 35.780734172477
236.874725868409 -51.5084153581488 -15.7276811856718
224.709458548476 -39.3431480382162 -55.070829223888
199.018256705306 1.17735864577432 -53.8934705781137
188.4497587642 -3.08344825393971 -56.9769188320534
162.311214278848 30.4697486518229 -26.5071701802306
151.444487909619 26.5071701802305 0
2231.81037854353 249.125855381915
Cost Inventory Plan subcontract Plan
Inventory Carrying 1245.62927690957 0
Regular labor 44636.2075708706 36864.0304297716
Overtime Labor 0 0
Subtracting cost 0 35198.8148560724
Lost sell cost 0 0
Total cost 45881.8368477802 72062.8452858441

Inventory plan is the lowest cost option

Inventory+Overtime Plan
1245.62927690957
22318.1037854353
44636.2075708706
0
0
68199.9406332155