Chapter 7 — Introduction to Probability
1. Introduction
Probability is just counting in disguise.
Probability measures how often we expect an event to occur if we repeat the experiment
many times.
Formula (when outcomes are equally likely):
P(A) = Number of successful outcomes / Total number of outcomes
⚠️Important: This only works if all outcomes are equally likely. If not, the ratio gives the
wrong answer.
Example: Flipping a fair coin.
Outcomes: {H, T}.
One success (H).
Probability: 1/2.
Interpretation: If you flip the coin many times, roughly half will be heads.
2. Basic Probability
Concept: Break problem into two counts —
1. Count all possible outcomes.
2. Count successes.
P(A) = Successes / Total outcomes.
Example 7.1 — Single die roll
Outcomes = 6.
Successes = 1 (rolling a “1”).
P = 1/6.
Example 7.2 — Prime on a die
Outcomes = 6.
Primes = {2, 3, 5} → 3 successes.
P = 3/6 = 1/2.
Example 7.3 — Max & min probability
Largest: 1 (event always happens).
Smallest: 0 (event never happens).
⚠️If you ever get a probability < 0 or > 1 → mistake.
Example 7.4 — Two red cards from a deck
Total outcomes: 52×51.
Successes: 26×25.
Probability = (26×25)/(52×51) = 25/102.
✅ Lesson: Always count total possibilities and successful possibilities separately.
3. Equally Likely Outcomes
Choosing the correct outcome set is critical.
Example 7.5 — Cube with 4 blue, 2 red
Wrong reasoning: “Blue or red → 2 outcomes → probability = 1/2.” ❌ Wrong because
outcomes are not equally likely.
Correct reasoning: 6 equally likely faces. 4 are blue.
P = 4/6 = 2/3.
👉 Thought experiment: 1000-face die with 999 blue, 1 red. Would you really say blue is 50%?
Example 7.6 — Two dice sum to 7
Wrong reasoning: “Possible sums = 2 through 12 → 11 options → probability = 1/11.” ❌
Wrong.
Correct reasoning: Total outcomes = 6×6 = 36.
Sums to 7: (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1). → 6 successes.
P = 6/36 = 1/6.
Example 7.7 — Two integers from 1–9, both odd
Two approaches:
Method 1 (unordered): Total = (9 choose 2) = 36. Odds = (5 choose 2) = 10. P = 10/36 =
5/18.
Method 2 (ordered): Total = 9×8 = 72. Odds = 5×4 = 20. P = 20/72 = 5/18.
✅ Both give the same result — consistency matters.
⚠️Warning: Don’t mix ordered total with unordered success (apples vs oranges).
4. Counting Techniques in Probability
Probability problems often require combinatorics tricks.
Example 7.8 — 10 people in a circle, choose 3 consecutive
Total = (10 choose 3) = 120.
Consecutive groups = 10.
P = 10/120 = 1/12.
Example 7.9 — Two-digit numbers product is even
Total choices = (90 choose 2) = 4005.
Complement: product odd → both odd.
Odds = 45 numbers → (45 choose 2) = 990.
Success = 4005 − 990 = 3015.
P = 3015/4005 = 2/3.
Example 7.10 — Full house in poker
Total hands = (52 choose 5) = 2,598,960.
Constructive counting:
Choose rank for 3 cards → 13 ways.
Choose 3 of 4 cards → (4 choose 3) = 4.
Choose rank for pair → 12 ways.
Choose 2 of 4 cards → (4 choose 2) = 6.
Total = 13×4×12×6 = 3744.
Probability = 3744 / 2,598,960 ≈ 1/694.
5. Summary
Formula: P(A) = Successful outcomes / Total outcomes.
• All probabilities are between 0 and 1.
• Equally likely assumption is crucial.
• Every probability problem = two counting problems.
• Always be consistent: order vs no order must match in total and success counts.