IOP2601
Basic concepts of
probability
Definition
• With probability, we are attempting to determine what are the
chances of a specific event happening.
Look at the following example: Imagine you have four small balls,
similar to each other in all ways, except that one is red and the other
three are blue. If you should place the balls in a box, close the lid,
and shake the box so as to mix it thoroughly and then reach into the
box and blindly withdraw one ball, what are the chances that you
would withdraw a red ball? Or stated differently, what are the
probability that you would draw a red ball? Now if you use common
sense, you would know that if you are blindly drawing 1 ball out of 4,
and if these 4 balls include 3 blue and 1 red, then you have 3
chances out of 4 of drawing a blue ball, but only 1 chance out of 4 of
drawing a red one.
Definition
• We can take these ‘chances’ and convert it to a meaningful and
useful numerical form. We can then say that an event has x chances
out of y occurring. Or stated differently, the probability of that event
can be defined numerically as the ratio of x to y. Thus the
probability, P, of drawing a blue ball (with 3 chances out of 4) is:
P(blue) = 3/4 = 0.75
and the probability of drawing a red ball (with 1 chance out of 4) is
P(red) = 1/4 = 0.25
• So a definition of probability can be the relative possibility that
an event will occur, as expressed by the ratio of the number of
actual occurrences to the total number of possible
occurrences.
Definition
• If we state the definition differently:
P(x) = number of possibilities favourable to the occurrence of x /
total number of pertinent possibilities
So the probability of randomly drawing a blue ball from a box is:
P(blue) = the total number of blue balls in the box / the total number
of balls in the box
• We can express this ratio on a scale of 0 to 1: 0 if the event is
not likely to occur at all; 1 if the event is likely to occur every
time; or any proportion in between of the likelihood of the event
occurring e.g. 0.75 or 0.34.
• So a probability value is a statement of proportion.
Example of basic probability
• To take another example, imagine a statistics class containing 30
students, of whom 7 are first years, 12 are second years, 10 are
third years and one is a honours student. If you were to select one
student at random from this class, what is the probability that the
student you select will be a first year? As there is a total of 30
students in the class, of whom exactly 7 are first years, that
probability is:
P(first year) = 7/30 = 0.2333
By the same reasoning, the probability of selecting a second year is
P(second year) = 12/30 = 0.40
and so on for the categories third year and honours:
P(third year) = 10/30 = 0.3333
P(honours) = 1/30 = 0.0333
Probability of more than one event occurring
• If we go one step further, we can look at not only
the chances of a single event occurring, as in
the previous examples, but also the chances of
more than one event occurring. Here we can
distinguish between two scenarios:
• What are the chances that both events occur –
this is ‘and’.
• Or, what are the chances that one or the other
occur – this is ‘or’.
• In the language of probability, we call the ‘and’
scenario conjunction and the ‘or’ scenario
disjunction.
Conjunctive Probability
• Look at the following example: Suppose you were to toss
a penny twice. There is a 50% chance of getting a head
on the first toss; and then, if you do get a head on the
first toss, there is also a 50% chance of getting a head
on the second toss. The probability that you will get a
head on the first toss and on the second toss is
therefore 50% of 50%. So, one-half of one-half is one-
quarter; or 50% of 50% is 25%; or in decimal form, 0.5 x
0.5 = 0.25.
• So when you are investigating a conjunction scenario
(‘and’), you will use multiplication.
Independent events
• In the simple case of repeatedly tossing a coin, the
probability of getting a head on any particular toss is
completely independent of the outcome of any other
toss, past, present, or future. If you get a head on the
first toss, the probability of getting a head on the second
toss is P (H) = 0.5; and if you get a tail on the first toss,
the probability of getting a head on the second toss is
also P(H)= 0.5.
• No matter how many times you have tossed the coin, no
matter how many heads have already come up, or how
many tails, the probability of getting a head on the next
toss is still exactly P(H)= 0.5.
Dependent events
• There are many other kinds of situations, however, where the
probability of an event is not independent but dependent— that is,
where the probability of one event depends on the outcome of some
other event.
• Imagine a room that contains 4 females and 6 males. Question 1: If
you were to select 3 persons from this room at random, what is the
probability that all 3 would be females?
• Here is how it works. The critical point to take note of is that the
probability of the outcome for each successive draw, after the first,
depends on the outcome(s) of the preceding draw(s).
• Clearly, the probability of selecting a female on the first draw is the
ratio 4/10, since there are 10 persons in the room, of whom 4 are
females. But then, once you have made your first selection, there
remain only 9 persons in the room from whom to make your second
selection; and if your first selection is a female, then only 3 of the
remaining persons are females.
Dependent events
• Thus, if your first selection happens to be a female, the probability of
selecting a female on the second draw is not 4/10, but rather 3/9.
After the second selection there are only 8 persons left in the room;
and if both of the persons already drawn are females, then only 2 of
these 8 remaining are females. Thus, the probability that the third
draw will also be a female is not 4/10 nor 3/9, but rather 2/8. The
probability of selecting females in all three draws in this situation is
therefore:
P(all 3 females) = (4/10) x (3/9) x (2/8) = 0.033
Disjunctive probabilities
• Let us now take a look at disjunctive probabilities:
• If you toss a coin, there is a 50% chance that it will come up heads, a 50%
chance that it will come up tails, and thus a 100% chance that it will come
up either heads or tails. With each correct entry submitted to a competition
with 100 entries, you have a 1 in 100 chance of winning. With two correct
entries submitted (assuming that you can enter as many times as you like)
your chance of winning with either the first or the second correct entry is
therefore 2 in 100. With three tickets, the chance of winning with either the
first or the second or the third is 3 in 100; and so forth. When two or more
chance events are disjunctively linked by the word "or," the corresponding
mathematical linkage is just simple addition.
• Thus, the probability of having A or B occur is equal to the sum of the two
component probabilities for A and B: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
The probability of having A or B or C occur is the sum of the three separate
component probabilities for A and B and C: P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) +
P(C) and so on.
Disjunctive probabilities
• To put it concretely, imagine a statistics class of 30 students
composed of 4 first years, 12 second years, 10 third years, and 4
honours students. The instructor announces that one of these
students will be randomly selected to win the class lottery prize,
which is an automatic A in the course. The probability that the lucky
winner will be either a first year or a second year is:
• 4 first years / 30 students + 12 second years / 30 students = 16 / 30
= 0.53
• and the probability that it will be either a first year or a second year
or a third year is:
• 4 first years / 30 students + 12 second years / 30 students + 10 third
years / 30 students = 26 / 30 = 0.87
• This can however only be done when the events are mutually
exclusive. In other words, the occurrence of one event rules out the
occurrence of the other event.
In summary
• In summary: This is what you have learned regarding
investigating the chances of two or more events
occurring:
Conjunctive probability Disjunctive probability
And Or
Use multiplication Use addition
Independent or Mutually exclusive
dependent events events