Applied Probability and Statistics for

Information Technology

Introduction to Probability

Instructor: Tran Luong Quoc-Dai, Ph.D.

Outline

• Elements of Probability
• Introduction
• Experiments & Outcomes
• Sample Spaces
• Events
• Algebra of Events
• Probability
• Combinatorial Theory

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Introduction

• The concept of probability agrees with our intuition.

• The probability of an event is a chance that this event will happen.
• Probability is a fundamental tool for making decisions when outcomes are
uncertain. There’s an equal 50-50 chance of it landing on
heads or tails. However, this doesn’t guarantee
that flipping the coin 10 times will result in
exactly 5 heads and 5 tails. You can try it out if
you’re curious! But if you were to flip the coin a
million times, the proportion of heads is expected
to be very close to 1/2.

𝑃 =?
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Language of Probability

• The probability language is commonly used in in an informal manner in everyday

conversation:
• There’s a good chance it will rain tomorrow, so you might want to bring an
umbrella.
• It’s unlikely that the traffic will be clear during rush hour.
• It’s probable that the meeting will run longer than scheduled.
• It’s expected that gas prices will rise by the end of the summer.
• There’s a high likelihood that the movie will be a box office hit.
• .........

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Experiments and Outcomes

• An experiment is any process or action. When an experiment is conducted, each

possible result is called an outcome, denoted by ω.
• An experiment is a procedure whose outcome cannot be predicted with certainty
in advance.
• Examples of experiments:
• Flipping 3 fair coins and counting the number of heads.
• Rolling a die and observing the number on the top face.
• A race among seven horses.
• Determining the dosage of medicine needed for a patient to respond
positively.
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Sample Spaces

• A sample space of an experiment, denoted by S or Ω, is the set of all possible outcomes of the
experiment.
• Examples of Sample space and Outcomes:
o Rolling a die:
• Sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Each number is an outcome.
o Determining the gender of a newborn:
• Sample space: S = {girl, boy}.
o Two-child scenario:
• An incorrect approach may define the sample space as {two girls, two boys, one girl
and one boy}, but these are not equally likely.
• The correct approach assumes each child’s gender is independent (boy or girl),
yielding 4 equally likely outcomes: {boy-boy, girl-girl, boy-girl, girl-boy}.
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Events

• An event E is a subset of the sample space Ω.

• An event is called simple if it consists of exactly one outcome, and compound if it
includes two or more outcomes.
• When an experiment is conducted and an outcome ω ∈ S is observed:
• We say that an event A occurs if the observed outcome ω is a member of
A (i.e., ω ∈ A).
• Exactly one simple event (a single outcome) occurs in each trial.
• However, multiple compound events — events that include the observed
outcome — can occur at the same time.

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Events (cont.)

• Example: Rolling a six-sided die

• Let the sample space be S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
• Suppose we roll the die and observe the outcome: ω = 4.
• Now define the following events:
• A = {2, 4, 6} → event “an even number is rolled” (a compound event).
• B = {4} → event “the number 4 is rolled” (a simple event).
• C = {3, 4, 5} → event “the number is between 3 and 5”.

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Types of Probability Events

• Events can be grouped into several categories based on their characteristics:

o Simple Event: An event that contains exactly one outcome.
o Compound Event: An event that includes two or more outcomes.
o Sure Event: An event that always happens, no matter the outcome of the
experiment.
o Impossible Event: An event that can never happen.
o Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that cannot occur at the same time.
o Exhaustive Events: A set of events is exhaustive if at least one of them must
occur — together they cover the entire sample space.
o Equally Likely Events: Events that have the same chance of occurring.
o Independent Events: Events where the outcome of one does not affect the other.
o Dependent Events: Events where the outcome of one does affect the outcome of
the other.
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Basic Event Operations

• In probability theory, events are treated as sets of

outcomes from the sample space.
• As such, various set operations can be applied to
events to understand their relationships and
combined probabilities.
• These operations help us model complex scenarios in which multiple outcomes
or event conditions are considered.
• Understanding how to manipulate and interpret events through set operations
is essential for evaluating probabilities.

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Union of Events

• The union of two events A and B is the event that occurs if at least one of
A or B occurs.
• Mathematical definition:

• Example:
• Let A = {1, 2, 3}, B = {3, 4, 5}
• Then A ∪ B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}

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Intersection of Events

• The intersection of A and B is the event that occurs only if both A and
B occur simultaneously.
• Mathematical definition:

• Example:
• A = {2, 4, 6}, B = {4, 5, 6}
• A ∩ B = {4, 6}

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Complement of An Event

• The complement of an event A is the event that A does not occur — that
is, all outcomes in the sample space except those in A.
• Mathematical definition:

• Example:
• If S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, A = {1, 3, 5}
• Then Aᶜ = {2, 4, 6}

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The Difference between Two Events

• The difference between two events, denoted as A – B, refers to the set of

outcomes that belong to event A but do not belong to event B.
• Mathematical definition:

• Example:
• A = {1, 2, 3}, B = {2, 4}
• A – B = {1, 3}

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Symmetric Difference

• The symmetric difference includes all outcomes that are in A or B but not
in both.
• Mathematical definition:

• Example:
• A = {1, 2, 3}, B = {3, 4, 5}
• A Δ B = {1, 2, 4, 5}

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Disjoint (Mutually Exclusive) Events

• Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they have no outcomes in

common, i.e., their intersection is empty.
• Mathematical condition:

• Example:
• A = {1, 2}, B = {3, 4}
⇒ A and B are mutually exclusive.

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Example 1.1

• Let’s consider an example where our experiment rolls two fair 6-sided dices: one
red (D1) and one green (D2).
• Since the dices are distinguishable by color, the order of the outcomes matters.
• We can represent each possible result in the sample space as an ordered pair (D1,
D2), where D1, D2 ∈ {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} are the values rolled by the red and green
dice. 1 2 3 4 5 6
• For example: 1 (1, 2) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
2 (2,1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
(D1, D2) = (2, 3) = ( )
3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)
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Example 1.1 (cont.)

• The sample space Ω is the set of all possible ordered pairs of values that could be rolled
by the die (|Ω| = 6 · 6 = 36 by the product rule). Let’s consider some events:
1. A = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6)}, the event that the red die is a 1.
2. B = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)}, the event that the sum of the two rolls is 6.
3. C = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}, the event that the value of both die is
equal.
1 2 3 4 5 6
4. Are A and B mutually exclusive? 1 (1, 1)A,C (1, 2)A (1, 3)A (1, 4)A (1, 5)A,B (1, 6)A
5. Are B and C mutually exclusive? 2 (2,1) (2, 2)C (2, 3) (2, 4)B (2, 5) (2, 6)
3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3)B,C (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
4 (4, 1) (4, 2)B (4, 3) (4, 4)C (4, 5) (4, 6)
5 (5, 1)B (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5)C (5, 6)
6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)C
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Algebra of Events

• The Algebra of Events refers to the set of operations and rules that define how events
in probability can be combined and related to each other.
• It provides a mathematical framework to manipulate events—sets of outcomes in a
sample space—similar to how algebra manipulates numbers.
• The operations follow a set of logical and mathematical laws, ensuring that the
results are both logically sound and mathematically valid. This framework allows us
to:
o Express complex and straightforward scenarios with precision.
o Systematically compute probabilities for combined or modified events.
o Apply consistent reasoning even in situations involving multiple overlapping
conditions.
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Fundamental Laws of Event Algebra

• Commutative Laws

• Associative Laws

• Distributive Laws

• De Morgan’s Laws

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Example 1.2

• We roll a fair six-sided die.

• A = “even number” = {2, 4, 6}
• B = “number greater than 3” = {4, 5, 6}
• Calculations:
•
•
•
•
•

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Outline

• Elements of Probability
• Probability
• Frequentist & Bayesian Interpretation
• Axioms of Probability
• Corollaries of the Probability Axioms
• Equally Likely Outcomes
• Combinatorial Theory

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Frequentist vs. Bayesian Perspective

• Frequentist: Probability is an objective property of the process — it describes

the proportion of times an event will occur in an infinite sequence of identical
trials.
• Bayesian: Probability is a subjective measure of uncertainty — it quantifies our
state of knowledge and can change as new data is incorporated.
• In modern probability and statistics, both interpretations play essential roles. The
frequentist approach underlies many classical statistical methods, while the
Bayesian approach has gained prominence in fields such as machine learning,
decision theory, and data science.

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Frequentist Interpretation

• In the 20th century, one widely accepted way to define probability emerged
through the frequentist interpretation.
• Suppose we perform n independent trials of an experiment, and let n(E) represent
the number of trials in which the outcome belongs to the event E. The
probability of E is then defined as:

• This approach treats probability as the long-run relative frequency of an event

occurring under identical and repeatable conditions.

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Bayesian Interpretation

• A notable alternative is the Bayesian interpretation, which frames probability

as a measure of the degree of belief. In this view:
• P(E) represents the strength of one’s belief that E will occur, given current
knowledge and available evidence.
• This belief can be updated using Bayes’ theorem when new information
becomes available.
• Bayesian probability explicitly accounts for two sources of uncertainty:
a. Inherent randomness in the system being studied.
b. Incomplete knowledge of the observer.

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 Aspect Frequentist Interpretation Bayesian Interpretation
Probability is a degree of belief or a measure of
Probability is the long-run relative frequency of an event
Core Definition certainty about an event, given the current
in repeated identical trials.
information.

View on Randomness is an inherent property of the process being Randomness partly reflects uncertainty in our
Randomness studied. knowledge about the process.
Data Requires a large number of identical and repeatable Can work with limited data, using prior information
Requirement trials to estimate probabilities accurately. to compensate for scarcity.
Role of Prior Does not incorporate prior beliefs; probability is Explicitly incorporates prior beliefs or historical data
Knowledge determined purely from observed frequencies. into probability assessments.

Probability of heads = belief about heads based on

Example: Coin Probability of heads = proportion of heads in a large
prior assumptions (e.g., fairness) updated with
Toss number of tosses of the same coin.
observed toss results.

Typical Quality control, gambling odds, physical sciences, Machine learning, decision-making under uncertainty,
Applications classical statistical inference. medical diagnostics, adaptive systems.
Objective, based solely on observed data; no subjective Flexible, can update beliefs as new evidence is
Strengths
bias from prior assumptions. collected; effective with small datasets.
Not practical for rare events or small datasets; ignores Can be subjective; results depend on the choice of
Limitations
prior information. prior.
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Axioms of Probability
• Let Ω be a sample space (the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment), and
let ℱ be a σ-algebra of subsets of Ω. A probability measure is a function:

that satisfies the following three axioms:

1. Non-negativity:
2. Normalization:
3. Countable Additivity:
• If E and F are mutually exclusive (no outcomes in common), then:

• More generally, for any countable collection of pairwise mutually exclusive events E1,
E2, E3, …:

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Corollaries of the Probability Axioms

1. Complementation: since

This follows from the fact that the sample space contains all possible outcomes.
2. Monotonicity: if then

3. Inclusion–Exclusion Principle:

If events E and F share common outcomes, adding P(E) and P(F) counts those shared
outcomes twice. To correct this, we subtract P(E∩F) once so that the intersection is
counted only once, avoiding overcounting.

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Example 1.3

Problem: At a university, 28% of students program in C++, 7% program in Python,

and 5% program in both C++ and Python. If you randomly meet a student on campus,
what is the probability that the student does not program in either C++ or Python?
Solution:
• E = “the event that a student programs in C++”.
• F = “the event that a student programs in Python”.
• We have: P(E) = 28%; P(F) = 7%; P(E ∩ F) = 5%.
We want to find :

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Equally Likely Outcomes

• In probability theory, a common and simple case occurs when all outcomes in a sample
space are equally likely — that is, each outcome has the same probability of occurring.
• This situation often arises in fair random experiments: tossing a fair coin, rolling a fair
die, or drawing a card from a well-shuffled deck.
• Definition:
• Let the sample space be , where n is the total number of possible
outcomes.
• If each outcome is equally likely, then:
• Since the total probability of the sample space is 1:

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Probability of An Event

• If every outcome in the sample space Ω is equally likely, then for any event E ⊆
Ω containing ∣E ∣ outcomes, we can represent it as:

• Since each outcome has the same probability , the probability of E is:

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Example 1.4
• Problem: You roll two fair six-sided dice. Determine the probability that the sum of the
numbers obtained on the two dice is exactly 7.
• Solution: We define the sample space S as the set of all possible ordered pairs (a, b),
where a is the result of the first die and b is the result of the second die.
S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6)
(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6)
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)
(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6)
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6)
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)}
=> E = {(6, 1), (5, 2), (4, 3), (3, 4), (2, 5), (1, 6)}
Since all outcomes are equally likely, the probability of this event is:

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Outline

• Elements of Probability
• Probability
• Combinatorial Theory
• Counting Methods
• Key Sampling Definitions
• The Multiplication Principle
• Permutations
• Combinations

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Counting Methods

• In probability theory, determining the likelihood of an

event E often comes down to a simple but crucial ratio:

• The real challenge in many problems lies in finding ∣E∣ and ∣S∣ efficiently—
especially when the sample space is large and listing every possibility is
impractical.
• Counting methods are systematic mathematical tools that allow us to determine
the number of possible arrangements, selections, or groupings without the need to
enumerate each one explicitly.

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Key Sampling Definitions

• In counting problems, the way we select objects significantly impacts the total number of
possible outcomes. The following definitions are essential:
o Sampling with replacement: means that after each selection, the chosen item is
returned to the original set, allowing it to be picked again with probability 1/n.
o Sampling without replacement: means that once an item is selected, it is removed
from the set, reducing the number of possible selections by one each time.
o Distinguishable objects: changing the order of the same objects results in a different
outcome. For example, the sequence (red, blue) is different from (blue, red).
o Indistinguishable objects: changing the order does not result in a new outcome. For
example, if objects are identical (two red balls), swapping them doesn’t produce a new
arrangement.

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The Multiplication Principle

• The Multiplication Principle—also known as the Rule of Product—is a fundamental

concept in combinatorics and probability theory.
• Definition: If one event can occur in m ways and another independent event can occur
in n ways, then the total number of possible outcomes for the two events together is m×n.
• Formal Definition: If an experiment consists of k stages:
• Stage 1 has n1 possible outcomes,
• …
• Stage k has nk possible outcomes,
• Then the total number of possible sequences of outcomes is:

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Example 1.5

• Drawing a Card from a Standard Deck:

• Drawing a card from a standard deck can be thought of as two independent experiments:
1. Choosing a suit – There are 4 possible suits: ♠, ♥, ♣, ♦.
2. Choosing a rank – There are 13 possible ranks: A, K, Q, J, 10, 9, …, 2.
• By the Multiplication Principle, the total number of possible cards is: 4×13=52.
• Singapore Sweep Lottery:
• In the Singapore Sweep, there are 7 independent digits in a winning ticket number,
and each digit can be any value in {⓪,①,②,③,④,⑤,⑥,⑦,⑧,⑨}.
• That means each position n1 = n2 = … = n7 has 10 outcomes.
• Applying the Multiplication Principle:

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Permutations

• Definition:
• A permutation is an arrangement of a set of objects in a specific order.
• The order matters — changing the order of elements creates a different
permutation.
• Permutations are used when we want to know how many different ordered
arrangements can be formed from a set of items.
• Types of Permutations:
• Permutations without repetition.
• Permutations with repetition.
• Permutations with identical items.
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Permutations Without Repetition

• Selecting a sample of size r (= 0, 1, ... , n) from a set of size n objects.

• When all objects are distinct and each object can only be used once:
• The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is:

• Special case: When r = n, the total number of permutations is:

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Example 1.6

• Problem: In how many distinct ways can 10 students be seated in a classroom

containing 15 chairs?
• Solution: Since the students are distinguishable and each occupies exactly one chair,
this is a permutation without replacement problem. The total number of possible
seating arrangements is given by:
• Interpretation: If the students enter the room one at a time:
• The first student can choose from 15 chairs.
• The second student then has 14 remaining chairs.
• This continues until the tenth student, who will have exactly 6 chairs left to
choose from.
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Permutations with Repetition

• Permutations with repetition (also called permutations with replacement) occur when
we arrange a set of objects where repetition is allowed and the order matters.
• Each position in the arrangement can be filled by any element from the set.
• The same element may appear multiple times in different positions.
• Changing the order of elements produces a different arrangement, even if some
elements are repeated.
• If we have n possible distinct objects and want to form an arrangement of
length r with repetition allowed, then the total number of possible arrangements is:

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Example 1.7

• Problem: A company requires a 4-character password where each character can be a

digit from 0 to 9. Digits can be repeated in the password. How many possible
passwords can be created?
• Solution: Since each digit can be chosen with replacement, the choice for each
position is independent. Thus, the total number of possible passwords is:

• Interpretation:
• The first character has 10 possible choices (0–9).
• The second character also has 10 choices, and so on for the third and fourth.

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Permutations with Identical Items

• Permutations with identical items (also called permutations of a multiset) arise when
we arrange a set of n objects where some objects are indistinguishable from each
other:
• If all objects were different, the number of arrangements would be n!.
• When certain objects are identical, swapping them does not create a new
arrangement, so we must divide by the number of ways the identical items can be
permuted among themselves.
• Suppose we have n total objects, divided into k groups of identical items:
• n1 items of type 1 (identical to each other);
• …
• nk items of type k.
• The number of distinct permutations is:

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Example 1.8

• Problem: Determine the number of distinct permutations of the letters in the word
‘LEVEL’.
• Solution:
• The word LEVEL has 5 letters in total, n = 5.
• In “LEVEL”, L appears 2 times, E appears 2 times, V appears 1 time. So, we have:

• Apply the formula for permutations with identical items:

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Combinations

• Definition:
• A combination is a selection of objects from a set where the order of selection
does not matter and no object is selected more than once.
• Combinations are used when the arrangement sequence is irrelevant — the
same objects in a different order are considered the same selection.
• Formula:
• If we have n distinct objects and want to choose r of them, the number of
possible combinations is:

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Combinations (cont.)

• Computational shortcuts:
• Instead of computing C(n, k) directly by the formula, we can simplify the
fraction.

• Special cases:
• C (n, 0)=1 — choosing nothing is one way.
• C (n, 1)=n — choosing one item has n possibilities.
• C (n, n)=1 — choosing all items is one way.

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Example 1.9

• Problem: In a lottery, 6 distinct numbers are chosen from {1, 2, …, 49}. How many
different tickets are possible?
• Solution:
• Each ticket is a set of 6 different numbers. Order does not matter. No repetition (you
cannot pick the same number twice). So this is a combination problem:

• Interpretation:
• If order mattered, there would be 49 ⋅ 48 ⋅ 47 ⋅ 46 ⋅ 45 ⋅ 44 ordered ways (the
multiplication rule).
• But each unordered 6-number ticket is counted 6! times among those ordered lists (all
permutations of the same 6 numbers). Therefore divide by 6!.

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Example 1.10: Bridge Hand

• Problem: A bridge hand is made by selecting 13 cards from a standard 52-card deck,
where the order of cards does not matter. The 52 cards are all distinct.
Calculate the probability of drawing a 13-card hand containing only black cards (spades
♠ or clubs ♣).
Solution
• A bridge hand is formed by selecting any 13 cards from a standard 52-card
deck, regardless of order. Since all 52 cards are distinct, the number of different possible
bridge hands is given by the combination:

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Example 1.10: Bridge Hand (cont.)

• Since there are 13 cards in each of the 4 suits (♥,♦,♣, ♠), The number of hands that
consist entirely of black cards (no ♥ or ♦) is:

• If the deck is well-shuffled and each of the 635 billion possible hands is equally likely, then
the probability P(A) of drawing a hand made up entirely of spades or clubs is:

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Example 1.11: Three of a Kind

• Problem: In 5-card poker, a hand is a three of a

kind if it contains three cards of the same
rank (e.g., three 7s) and the remaining two cards
are of different ranks from each other and from the
triple (i.e., not a full house and not four of a kind).
What is the probability that a randomly dealt 5-
card hand is a three of a kind?

Image from
Internet.
March 19, 2024 50
Example 1.11: Three of a Kind (cont.)

Solution
• All 5-card hands are equally likely; the total number of hands is:
• Count hands that are exactly “three of a kind”:
1. Choose the rank for the triple:
2. Choose its suits:
3. Choose the two kicker ranks (distinct from the triple and from each other):
4. Choose suits for each kicker:
Þ The number of “three of a kind” is:
• Therefore:

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 Order Repetition
Comparison Table
Type Definition
Matters Allowed
Formula

Permutations Arrangements of r distinct objects

Yes No
without repetition from n objects without reusing any object.

Permutations with Arrangements of r objects chosen

Yes Yes
repetition from n types where objects can be reused.

Permutations with Arrangements of n objects where some are

Yes
identical items indistinguishable.
Not Applicable

Selections of r objects from n objects where

Combinations order does not matter and no object is No No
reused.
March 19, 2024 52
Exercises

1. Provide a specific example for each of the nine types of probability events listed on
page 9. These include: simple event, compound event, sure event, impossible event,
mutually exclusive events, exhaustive events, equally likely events, independent events,
and dependent events.
2. Finding the Probability of the Intersection of Events from a Venn Diagram:

March 19, 2024 53

Exercises

3. From a group of 6 men and 4 women, 5 people are randomly selected. Find the
probability of the following events:
a. Selecting at least one man.
b. Selecting 5 women.
4. Consider the experiment of tossing two fair coins simultaneously. Each coin has
two possible outcomes: Head (H) or Tail (T):
a. List the sample space of all possible outcomes.
b. Determine the probability of the event “at least one coin shows Head”.

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Exercises

5. There are 10 teaching assistants (TAs) available to grade a test with 5

questions. Each question must be graded by a different TA (at most one
question per assistant). In how many ways can the TAs be assigned to the 5
questions?
6. A school needs to select two student volunteers. There are 4 female students
and 2 male students, and each of the 6 students has an equal chance of
being selected. Find the probability that:
a. Both selected students are female.
b. At least one selected student is female.

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Exercises

7. A box contains 10 candies, of which 3 are red. Three candies are randomly
selected from the box. Find the probability of selecting at least one red candy.
8. In a standard poker game using a 52-card deck, a straight is a 5-card hand in
which the cards have consecutive ranks (e.g., 7-8-9-10-J), regardless of suit.
The Ace (A) can be used as either the lowest card (A-2-3-4-5) or the highest
card (10-J-Q-K-A). What is the probability of being dealt a straight in 5 cards?
a. Counting all straights, including straight flushes (all of the same suit).
b. Counting only straights that are not straight flushes.

March 19, 2024 56

References

[1] Michael Baron. (2014). Probability and Statistics for Computer Scientists, Second Edition (2nd.
ed.). Chapman & Hall/CRC.
[2] Molina Peralta, I. and García-Portugués, E. (2024). A First Course on Statistical Inference.
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