1.

(15 points) In a management trainee program at Claremont Enterprises, 80 percent of the trainees are female and
20 percent male. Ninety percent of the females attended college, and 78 percent of the males attended college. A
management trainee is selected at random. What is the probability that the person selected is a female given who
did not attend college?
Event B1 : attend college B2 : not attend college Total
A1 : female 0.72 0.8-0.72=0.08 0.8
A2 : male 0.156 0.2-0.156=0.044 0.2
Total 0.876 0.124 1
P ( A1 ) = 0.8 P( A2 ) = 0.2
P ( B1 | A1 ) = 0.9 P( B1 | A2 ) = 0.78
P ( A1  B1 ) = P ( A1 ) P ( B1 | A1 ) = 0.8  0.9 = 0.72
P ( A2  B1 ) = P ( A2 ) P ( B1 | A2 ) = 0.2  0.78 = 0.156

P ( A1  B2 ) 0.08
P ( A1 | B2 ) = = = 0.6452
P ( B2 ) 0.124

2. (15 points) An investor purchased 100 shares of Fifth Third Bank stock and 100 shares of Santee Electric
Cooperative stock. The probability the bank stock will appreciate(增值) over a year is .70. The probability the
electric utility will increase over the same period is .60. Assume the two company are independent.
a. What is the probability both stocks appreciate during the period?
A : Fifth Third Bank stock appreciate B : Santee Electric Cooperative stock appreciate
P( A  B ) = P ( A) P( B) = 0.7  0.6 = 0.42
b. What is the probability the bank stock appreciates but the utility does not?
P( A  B c ) = P( A) P( B c ) = 0.7  0.4 = 0.28
c. What is the probability at least one of the stocks appreciates?
P( A  B ) = P ( A) + P( B) − P( A  B ) = 0.7 + 0.6 − 0.42 = 0.88

3. (10 points) A new sports car model has defective(有缺陷的) brakes(煞車) 15 percent of the time and a
defective steering mechanism(轉向裝置) 5 percent of the time. Let's assume (and hope) that these problems occur
independently. If one or the other of these problems is present, the car is called a “lemon.” If both of these
problems are present, the car is a “hazard.” Your instructor purchased one of these cars yesterday. What is the
probability it is
a. A lemon?
B1 : defective steering B2 : not defective steering Total
mechanism mechanism
A1 : defective brake 0.15×0.05=0.0075 0.15×0.95=0.1425 0.15
A2 : not defective brake 0.85×0.05=0.0425 0.85×0.95=0.8075 0.85
Total 0.05 0.95 1
P(A1  B1 ) = P(A1 ) + P( B1 ) − P( A1  B1 )
= 0.15 + 0.05 − 0.0075 = 0.1925
b. A hazard?
P( A1  B1 ) = 0.0075
4. (10 points) Horwege Electronics Inc. purchases TV picture tubes(電子管) from four different suppliers. Tyson
Wholesale supplies 20 percent of the tubes, Fuji Importers 30 percent, Kirkpatricks 25 percent, and Parts Inc. 25
percent. Tyson Wholesale tends to have the best quality, as only 3 percent of its tubes arrive defective. Fuji
Importers' tubes are 4 percent defective, Kirkpatricks' 7 percent, and Parts Inc. are 6.5 percent defective.
a. What is the overall percent defective?
B1 : defective B2 : not defective Total
A1 : Tyson P( A1 ) P( B1 | A1 ) 0.2-0.006=0.194 0.2
= 0.2  0.03 = 0.006
A2 : Fuji P( A2 ) P( B1 | A2 ) 0.3-0.012=0.288 0.3
= 0.3  0.04 = 0.012
A3 : Kirkpatrick P( A3 ) P( B1 | A3 ) 0.25-0.0175=0.2325 0.25
= 0.25  0.07 = 0.0175
A4 : Parts P( A4 ) P( B1 | A4 ) 0.25-0.01625=0.2338 0.25
= 0.25  0.065 = 0.01625
Total 0.0518 0.9483 1
The overall percent defective is
P ( B1 ) = 0.0518
b. A defective picture tube was discovered in the latest shipment. What is the probability that it came from
Tyson Wholesale?
P( A1  B1 ) 0.006
P( A1 | B1 ) = = = 0.1159
P( B1 ) 0.0518

5. (15 points) A recent survey reported in BusinessWeek dealt with the salaries of CEOs at large corporations and
whether company shareholders made money or lost money.

If a company is randomly selected from the list of 20 studied, what is the probability:
Event B1 : More than 1 million B2 : Less than 1 million Total
A1 : shareholders made money 2/20=0.1 11/20=0.55 0.65
A2 : shareholders lost money 4/20=0.2 3/20=0.15 0.35
Total 0.3 0.7 1
a. The CEO made more than $1 million?
P ( B1 ) = 0.1+0.2=0.30
b. The CEO made more than $1 million or the shareholders lost money?
P( B1  A2 ) = P( B1 ) + P ( A2 ) − P ( B1  A2 ) =0.3+0.35-0.2=0.45
c. The CEO made more than $1 million given the shareholders lost money?
P( B1  A2 )
P( B1 | A2 ) = =0.2/0.35=0.5714
P( A2 )
6. (15 points) Two boxes of men's Old Navy shirts were received from the factory. Box 1 contained 25 mesh(網狀)
polo shirts and 15 Super-T shirts. Box 2 contained 30 mesh polo shirts and 10 Super-T shirts. One of the boxes
was selected at random, and a shirt was chosen at random from that box to be inspected. The shirt was a mesh polo
shirt. Given this information, what is the probability that the mesh polo shirt came from box 1?
B1 : mesh polo shirts B2 : Super-T shirts Total
A1 : box 1 25/80=0.3125 15/80=0.1875 0.5
A2 : box 2 30/80=0.3750 10/80=0.1250 0.5
Total 0.6875 0.3125 1
P( A1  B1 ) 0.3125
P( A1 | B1 ) = = =0.4545
P( B1 ) 0.6875

7. (10 points) A golfer has 12 golf shirts in his closet. Suppose 9 of these shirts are white and the others blue. He
gets dressed in the dark(黑暗中), so he just grabs(抓取) a shirt and puts it on. He plays golf two days in a row(連
續不斷) and does not do laundry(洗衣服). What is the likelihood both shirts selected are white?

W1: the first shirt selected is white P(W1) = 9/12

8. ( 10 points) Althoff and Roll, an investment firm in Augusta, Georgia, advertises extensively in the Augusta
Morning Gazette, the newspaper serving the region. The Gazette marketing staff estimates that 60 percent of
Althoff and Roll's potential market read the newspaper. It is further estimated that 85 percent of those who read
theGazette remember the Althoff and Roll advertisement.
Event B1 : remember advertisement B2 : not remember advertisement Total
A1 : read the newspaper 0.51 0.6-0.51=0.09 0.6
A2 : not read the newspaper 0 0.4 1-06=0.4
Total 0.51 0.49 1
P( A1 ) = 0.6 P( B1 | A1 ) = 0.85
a. What percent of the investment firm's potential market sees and remembers the advertisement?
P( A1  B1 ) = P( A1 ) P( B1 | A1 ) = 0.60(0.85)=0.51
b. What percent of the investment firm's potential market sees, but does not remember the advertisement?
P( A1  B2 ) = 0.6 − 0.51 = 0.09
9. (10 points) A computer-supply retailer purchased a batch of 1,000 CD-R disks and attempted to format them for
a particular application. There were 857 perfect CDs, 112 CDs were usable but had bad sectors, and the remainder
could not be used at all.
Event Frequency
A1 : perfect 857
A2 : usable but had bad 112
sectors
A3 : not be used at all 1000-857-112=31
Total 1000
a. What is the probability a randomly chosen CD is not perfect?
P( A2  A3 ) = 112 /1000 + 31/1000 = 0.143
b. If the disk is not perfect, what is the probability it cannot be used at all?
A=A2  A3 A3  A = A3
P( A3  A) P( A3 ) 0.031
P( A3 | A) = = = = 0.2168
P( A) P( A) 0.143

10. (10 points) Flashner Marketing Research Inc. specializes in providing assessments of the prospects(前景) for
women's apparel(服裝) shops in shopping malls. Al Flashner, president, reports that he assesses the prospects as
good, fair, or poor. Records from previous assessments show that 60 percent of the time the prospects were rated
as good, 30 percent of the time fair, and 10 percent of the time poor. Of those rated good, 80 percent made a profit
the first year; of those rated fair, 60 percent made a profit the first year; and of those rated poor, 20 percent made a
profit the first year. Connie's Apparel was one of Flashner's clients. What is the probability that Connie's Apparel
get a rating of poor given a profit for it?
B1 : profit B2 : not profit Total
A1 : good P( A1 ) P( B1 | A1 ) = 0.6  0.8 = 0.48 0.6-0.48=0.12 0.6
A2 : fair P( A2 ) P( B1 | A2 ) = 0.3  0.6 = 0.18 0.3-0.18=0.12 0.3
A3 : poor P( A3 ) P( B1 | A3 ) = 0.1 0.2 = 0.02 0.1-0.02=0.08 0.1
Total 0.68 0.32 1
P( A3  B1 ) 0.02
P( A3 | B1 ) = = = 0.0294
P( B1 ) 0.68