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Understanding Probability Basics

Probability quantifies the likelihood of events occurring and is defined through basic terminology such as experiments, outcomes, and sample spaces. It includes various types like theoretical, experimental, subjective, and axiomatic probability, along with rules for calculating probabilities. Applications of probability span weather forecasting, games of chance, and risk analysis, making it essential for decision-making and statistics.

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4 views2 pages

Understanding Probability Basics

Probability quantifies the likelihood of events occurring and is defined through basic terminology such as experiments, outcomes, and sample spaces. It includes various types like theoretical, experimental, subjective, and axiomatic probability, along with rules for calculating probabilities. Applications of probability span weather forecasting, games of chance, and risk analysis, making it essential for decision-making and statistics.

Uploaded by

Zan Bhone San
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© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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■ Class Notes on Probability

Page 1 — Introduction to Probability

What is Probability?
Probability is the measure of how likely an event is to occur. It helps us quantify uncertainty — how
certain or uncertain we are about the outcome of an experiment.

Basic Terminology
• Experiment: Any action or process that can have more than one outcome (e.g., tossing a coin).
• Outcome: A possible result of an experiment.
• Sample Space (S): The set of all possible outcomes.
• Event (E): A specific outcome or set of outcomes.

Probability Formula: P(E) = Number of favorable outcomes / Total number of possible outcomes.
Range: 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1

Example: A fair die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a 4.


P(4) = 1/6

Page 2 — Types of Probability

1. Theoretical Probability
Based on reasoning; assumes all outcomes are equally likely.
Example: Probability of getting a red card from a deck of 52 = 26/52 = 1/2.

2. Experimental Probability
Based on actual experiments or observations.
Example: A coin tossed 100 times shows 56 heads. P(Head) = 56/100 = 0.56.

3. Subjective Probability
Based on personal judgment or belief (e.g., 'There’s a 70% chance of rain').

4. Axiomatic Probability
Developed using mathematical rules (Kolmogorov’s axioms).

Page 3 — Rules of Probability

1. Addition Rule
For two events A and B: P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

2. Complementary Rule
P(A′) = 1 – P(A)
3. Multiplication Rule
For independent events: P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)

Example: Probability of getting 2 heads when tossing two coins = (1/2) × (1/2) = 1/4.

Page 4 — Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability of event A occurring given that event B has occurred.
Formula: P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)

Example: If 60% of students study Math and 30% study both Math and Science, then P(Math |
Science) = 0.3 / 0.6 = 0.5

Independent vs Dependent Events


Independent: One event doesn’t affect the other.
Dependent: One event affects the other.

Page 5 — Applications & Practice

Applications:
• Weather forecasting
• Games of chance (cards, dice)
• Risk analysis in business
• Medical statistics

Practice Problems:
1. A coin is tossed twice. Find the probability of getting exactly one head.
2. A card is drawn from a deck. Find the probability of getting a King.
3. A die is rolled twice. Find the probability of getting a sum of 7.
4. Two cards are drawn together. Find the probability both are red.
5. In a bag of 3 red, 4 blue, and 5 green balls, find P(green).

End of Notes — Probability Summary

Probability measures uncertainty, helps in decision-making, and forms the foundation for statistics
and data science.

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