Problem 1
A federal study reported that 7.5 percent of the U.S. workforce has a drug problem. A drug enforcement
official for the State of Indiana wished to investigate this statement. In her sample of 20 employed
workers:
a. How many would you expect to have a drug problem? What is the standard deviation?
b. What is the likelihood that none of the workers sampled has a drug problem?
c. What is the likelihood that at least one has a drug problem?
Problem 2
The Bank of Hawaii reports that 7 percent of its credit card holders will default at some time in their
life. The Hilo branch just mailed out 12 new cards today.
a. How many of these new cardholders would you expect to default? What is the standard deviation?
b. What is the likelihood that none of the cardholders will default?
c. What is the likelihood that at least one will default?
Problem 3
Recent statistics suggest that 15 percent of those who visit a retail site on the World Wide Web make a
purchase. A retailer wished to verify this claim. To do so, she selected a sample of 16 “hits” to her site
and found that 4 had actually made a purchase.
a. What is the likelihood of exactly four purchases?
b. How many purchases should she expect?
c. What is the likelihood that four or more “hits” result in a purchase?
Problem 4
A recent study conducted by Penn, Shone, and Borland, on behalf of [Link], revealed that 52
percent of business travelers plan their trips less than two weeks before departure. The study is to be
replicated in the tri-state area with a sample of 12 frequent business travelers.
a. Develop a probability distribution for the number of travelers who plan their trips within two weeks
of departure.
b. Find the mean and the standard deviation of this distribution.
c. What is the probability exactly 5 of the 12 selected business travelers plan their trips within two
weeks of departure?
d. What is the probability 5 or fewer of the 12 selected business travelers plan their trips within two
weeks of departure?
Problem 5
An internal study by the Technology Services department at Lahey Electronics revealed company em-
ployees receive an average of two emails per hour. Assume the arrival of these emails is approximated
by the Poisson distribution.
a. What is the probability Linda Lahey, company president, received exactly 1 email between 4 P.M.
and 5 P.M. yesterday?
b. What is the probability she received 5 or more emails during the same period?
c. What is the probability she did not receive any emails during the period?
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Solution
This is a Poisson distribution problem with an average rate λ = 2 emails per hour. The formula is
k −λ
P (X = k) = λ k!
e
.
21 e−2
a. For exactly 1 email, k = 1: P (X = 1) = 1! ≈ 0.2707.
b. For 5 or more emails, we find the complement of 4 or fewer: P (X ≥ 5) = 1 − P (X ≤ 4).
P (X ≤ 4) = P (0)+P (1)+P (2)+P (3)+P (4) = 0.1353+0.2707+0.2707+0.1804+0.0902 = 0.9473.
Therefore, P (X ≥ 5) = 1 − 0.9473 = 0.0527.
20 e−2
c. For no emails, k = 0: P (X = 0) = 0! ≈ 0.1353.
Problem 6
Recent crime reports indicate that 3.1 motor vehicle thefts occur each minute in the United States.
Assume that the distribution of thefts per minute can be approximated by the Poisson probability
distribution.
a. Calculate the probability exactly four thefts occur in a minute.
b. What is the probability there are no thefts in a minute?
c. What is the probability there is at least one theft in a minute?
Problem 7
New Process Inc., a large mail-order supplier of women’s fashions, advertises same-day service on every
order. Recently, the movement of orders has not gone as planned, and there were a large number
of complaints. Bud Owens, director of customer service, has completely redone the method of order
handling. The goal is to have fewer than five unfilled orders on hand at the end of 95 percent of the
working days. Frequent checks of the unfilled orders at the end of the day reveal that the distribution of
the unfilled orders follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of two orders.
a. Has New Process Inc. lived up to its internal goal? Cite evidence.
b. Draw a histogram representing the Poisson probability distribution of unfilled orders.
Problem 8
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has experienced two disasters. The Chal-
lenger exploded over the Atlantic Ocean in 1986, and the Columbia disintegrated on reentry over East
Texas in 2003. Based on the first 113 missions, and assuming failures occur at the same rate, consider
the next 23 missions. What is the probability of exactly two failures? What is the probability of no
failures?
Problem 9
A study by Great Southern Home Insurance revealed that none of the stolen goods were recovered by
the homeowners in 80 percent of reported thefts.
a. During a period in which 200 thefts occurred, what is the probability that no stolen goods were
recovered in 170 or more of the robberies?
b. During a period in which 200 thefts occurred, what is the probability that no stolen goods were
recovered in 150 or more robberies?
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Problem 10
The annual commissions earned by sales representatives of Machine Products Inc., a manufacturer of
light machinery, follow the normal probability distribution. The mean yearly amount earned is $40, 000
and the standard deviation is $5, 000.
a. What percent of the sales representatives earn more than $42, 000 per year?
b. What percent of the sales representatives earn between $32, 000 and $42, 000?
c. What percent of the sales representatives earn between $32, 000 and $35, 000?
d. The sales manager wants to award the sales representatives who earn the largest commissions a
bonus of $1, 000. He can award a bonus to 20 percent of the representatives. What is the cutoff
point between those who earn a bonus and those who do not?
Solution
This problem uses the normal distribution with µ = $40, 000 and σ = $5, 000. The standard formula for
the z-score is z = x−µ
σ .
a. We want to find P (X > $42, 000). First, we find the z-score for x = $42, 000. z = 42,000−40,000
5,000 =
0.40. Using a standard normal table, P (z < 0.40) ≈ 0.6554. Therefore, P (X > 42, 000) =
1 − 0.6554 = 0.3446. So, 34.46% of representatives earn more than $42, 000.
b. We want to find P ($32, 000 < X < $42, 000). We find the z-scores for both values. For x1 =
$32, 000: z1 = 32,000−40,000
5,000 = −1.60. P (z < −1.60) ≈ 0.0548. For x2 = $42, 000: z2 =
42,000−40,000
5,000 = 0.40. P (z < 0.40) ≈ 0.6554. The probability is the difference between these
two areas: P (z < 0.40) − P (z < −1.60) = 0.6554 − 0.0548 = 0.6006. So, 60.06% of representatives
earn between $32, 000 and $42, 000.
c. We want to find P ($32, 000 < X < $35, 000). For x1 = $32, 000: z1 = −1.60. P (z < −1.60) ≈
0.0548. For x2 = $35, 000: z2 = 35,000−40,000
5,000 = −1.00. P (z < −1.00) ≈ 0.1587. The probability
is the difference: P (z < −1.00) − P (z < −1.60) = 0.1587 − 0.0548 = 0.1039. So, 10.39% of
representatives earn between $32, 000 and $35, 000.
d. We are looking for the cutoff point for the top 20%. This corresponds to finding the z-score for
which the area to its right is 0.20, which is the same as the area to its left being 1 − 0.20 = 0.80.
From a z-table, the z-score for a cumulative probability of 0.80 is approximately 0.84. Now, we
solve for x: x = µ + z · σ = 40, 000 + 0.84 · 5, 000 = 40, 000 + 4, 200 = 44, 200. The cutoff point is
$44,200.
Problem 11
According to the South Dakota Department of Health, the mean number of hours of TV viewing per
week is higher among adult women than men. A recent study showed women spent an average of 34
hours per week watching TV and men 29 hours per week. Assume that the distribution of hours watched
follows the normal distribution for both groups, and that the standard deviation among the women is
4.5 hours and is 5.1 hours for the men.
a. What percent of the women watch TV less than 40 hours per week?
b. What percent of the men watch TV more than 25 hours per week?
c. How many hours of TV do the one percent of women who watch the most TV per week watch?
Find the comparable value for the men.