Laying 3rd Favourites for Profit
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skitter24Laying 3rd Favourites for Profit
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2
Introduction
In this episode of Bet Detective® you are going to discover a very
powerful way to make money from laying horses to lose on Betfair.
Never used Betfair before? You can find everything you need to know
in their extensive help section with nice video tutorials and stuff. Just
visit the homepage [Link] and click the “Help” link at the
top of the page.
The system is fast and doesn’t require any research work. You can bet
using level stakes…or follow the smart staking plan and make even
more profits.
This guide contains step-by-step instructions, screenshots and real-life
examples, so it doesn’t matter if your betting experience level is
beginner, advanced or professional.
With all of the above in mind, let’s get started!
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The system in a nutshell
There are only 4 simple and fast rules to follow…if you stick to them
you will make money!
1. Only use races with 10 or more runners
2. Start watching the odds approximately 90 seconds before the
start of the race
3. You are looking to LAY the 3 rd favourite in the betting market in
the final minute before the start
4. Only proceed with your bet if there is a clear 3 rd favourite with
LAY odds between 5.5 and 7.5 – at the same time the 3 rd
favourite’s LAY odds should be at least 1.5 away from the 1 st
favourite’s LAY odds
That’s it!
I told you this system would be fast and easy.
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Why does the system work so well?
History tells us that 3 rd favourites with Betfair LAY odds between 5.5
and 7.5 win 14% of their races.
When using only races with 10 or more runners, this number drops to
just 12%…leaving us with a strike rate of 88% winning LAY bets
without doing anything!
Even when all losing bets are at the highest possible odds of 7.5 we
would still make a profit in the long run, at level stakes.
For every 100 bets, you will have on average…
…88 winners
…12 losers
For every losing LAY bet @ odds 7.5 you will have to pay out 6.5
units when you lose your LAY bet.
Winning bets à 88 x 1 unit = 88 units profit
Losing bets à 12 x 6.5 units = 78 units loss
Net result = 88 units profit – 78 units loss = 10 units profit
For every 100 bets, you will make at least 10 units profit.
Sometimes you will lose 1, 2 or even 3 bets on a single day but you
will also have many winning runs of 20 or more bets in a row!
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Example # 1 – Newbury 15:55 – Saturday 18th August 2007
There are 14 runners in this race…Selections (14)
The clear 3 rd favourite is Partners In Jazz
LAY odds are 6.0 which is between 5.5 and 7.5
LAY odds are at least 1.5 away from 1 st favourite’s LAY odds of 4.0
à BET!
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RESULT
Partners In Jazz finished in 3 rd position
à We win our LAY bet!
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Example # 2 – Bangor 16:00 – Saturday 18th August 2007
There are 12 runners in this race…Selections (12)
But there is no clear 3 rd favourite
Crossbow Creek (6.6)
La Grande Villez (6.8)
à NO BET!
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Example # 3 – Newmarket 16:10 – Saturday 18th August 2007
There are 11 runners in this race…Selections (11)
The clear 3 rd favourite is Fondled
LAY odds are 7.0 which is between 5.5 and 7.5
LAY odds are at least 1.5 away from 1 st favourite’s LAY odds of 4.5
à BET!
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RESULT
Fondled finished in 3 rd position
à We win our LAY bet!
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Example # 4 – Newbury 16:25 – Saturday 18th August 2007
There are 15 runners in this race…Selections (15)
The clear 3 rd favourite is Applauded
LAY odds are 7.4 which is between 5.5 and 7.5
LAY odds are at least 1.5 away from 1 st favourite’s LAY odds of 3.05
à BET!
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RESULT
Applauded finished in 3 rd position
à We win our LAY bet!
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Staking Plan # 1 – Level Stakes
As already explained on page 4, this system will make profits when
using level stakes…same amount for each bet.
The best way to go is to take a starting bank and divide it by 50 units.
As soon as you double the bank for the first time, you take out your
winnings and start again with the same bank.
After that, every time the bank doubles, you add 50% to your stake.
For example:
Bank €100 à 50 units of €2
Bank doubles and is now €200
Take out your €100 profit and start again with the other €100
Bank doubles and is now €200 for the second time
Level stake was €2
Increase your stake with 50% à new stake is now €3
Bank doubles and is now €400
Level stake was €3
Increase your stake with 50% à new stake is now €4.5
And so on…
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Staking Plan # 2 – Smart Stakes
The main idea is to recover losses but without adding too much risk to
our betting bank.
You always start with level stakes of 1 unit.
After a losing bet, your will add 1 unit to your next stake.
After that, you will gradually decrease your stake by 0.20 units until
you get back to your starting level of 1 unit.
When you hit another loser before you reach your initial level again,
still add only 1 unit to your next bet and start decreasing by 0.20 units
again until you get back to your starting level of 1 unit.
On the next page you will find an example of 20 bets.
I will use Staking Plan #1 and #2 at the same time to show you the
difference in results…and they are quite amazing!
Smart Staking
Level Staking
NOTE:
A unit can be any amount you like.
Remember Episode 9…on pages 18 and beyond I show you how to
place bets even as low as €0.01 so no matter how big or small your
betting bank is, you can always get started.
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Bet # Odds W/L Stake P/L Bank Stake P/L Bank
0 - - - - 50.00 - - 50.00
1 5.6 W 1.00 +0.95 50.95 1.00 +0.95 50.95
2 5.9 W 1.00 +0.95 51.90 1.00 +0.95 51.90
3 5.1 L 1.00 -4.10 47.80 1.00 -4.10 47.80
4 5.8 W 2.00 +1.90 49.70 1.00 +0.95 48.75
5 7.4 W 1.80 +1.71 51.41 1.00 +0.95 49.70
6 6.9 W 1.60 +1.52 52.93 1.00 +0.95 50.65
7 5.9 L 1.40 -6.86 46.07 1.00 -4.90 45.75
8 7.4 W 2.40 +2.28 48.35 1.00 +0.95 46.70
9 5.0 W 2.20 +2.09 50.44 1.00 +0.95 47.65
10 6.8 W 2.00 +1.90 52.34 1.00 +0.95 48.60
11 6.2 W 1.80 +1.71 54.05 1.00 +0.95 49.55
12 5.7 W 1.60 +1.52 55.57 1.00 +0.95 50.50
13 5.6 W 1.40 +1.33 56.90 1.00 +0.95 51.45
14 5.9 W 1.20 +1.14 58.04 1.00 +0.95 52.40
15 5.1 W 1.00 +0.95 58.99 1.00 +0.95 53.35
16 5.8 W 1.00 +0.95 59.94 1.00 +0.95 54.30
17 7.4 L 1.00 -6.40 53.54 1.00 -6.40 47.90
18 6.9 W 2.00 +1.90 55.44 1.00 +0.95 48.85
19 7.2 W 1.80 +1.71 57.15 1.00 +0.95 49.80
20 7.4 W 1.60 +1.52 58.67 1.00 +0.95 50.75
With the Smart Plan staking, the starting level is always 1 unit.
After a losing bet you add 1 unit to your next stake.
Then you decrease every next stake with 0.20 units.
You keep on decreasing with 0.20 units until you get back to your
starting level of 1 unit – or until you hit another losing bet after which
you add 1 unit again and start decreasing your stake with 0.20 units
again and so on.
The difference is amazing!
Level stakes à 0.75 units profit
Smart stakes à 8.67 units profit
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The end
Congratulations!
You have made it to the finish of this Bet Detective® episode.
I will be back with more cool and profitable betting stuff, so keep an
eye on your email inbox for the next episode.
Enjoy your winnings…
Marc Raeven
eBay ID: gorgontar
Contact: gorgontar@[Link]
Bet Detective®
Copyright © 2007