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Probability and Statistics Exercises

The document contains a series of probability and statistics problems involving various scenarios, such as defective lamps from suppliers, outcomes of dice rolls, patient treatment probabilities, and probabilities related to card draws. It includes calculations for conditional probabilities, event intersections, and unions, as well as real-world applications like disease testing and student demographics. Each problem requires the application of probability rules and concepts to derive the required probabilities.

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9 views4 pages

Probability and Statistics Exercises

The document contains a series of probability and statistics problems involving various scenarios, such as defective lamps from suppliers, outcomes of dice rolls, patient treatment probabilities, and probabilities related to card draws. It includes calculations for conditional probabilities, event intersections, and unions, as well as real-world applications like disease testing and student demographics. Each problem requires the application of probability rules and concepts to derive the required probabilities.

Uploaded by

omrantawfik061
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Home work 2

(PROBABILITY ANO STATISTICS)

1. Electrical shop lamps from three different suppliers: 40% of its lamps come
from supplier 1, 35% from supplier 2, and the rest from supplier 3. Of the
lamps produced by supplier 1, 2% are defective, while supplier 2 and 3
produce defective lamps 3% and 4%, respectively. 1) If a lamp is randomly
chosen from the shop, what is the probability of that lamp is defective. 2)
Given that a lamp bought by the shop is defective, what is the probability
that it came from supplier 1?

2. A pair of fair dice is tossed. If the sum of the appeared numbers is even, find
the probability that the numbers appearing are different.

3. There are 100 patients in a hospital with a certain disease. Of these, 10 are
selected to undergo a drug treatment that increases the percentage cured rate
from 50 percent to 75 percent. What is the probability that the patient
received a drug treatment if the patient is known to be cured?

4. A pair of fair dice is tossed. If the sum of the appeared numbers is even, find
the probability that the numbers appearing are different.

5. Let X represents the difference between the number of heads and the number
of tails obtained when a fair coin is tossed 3 times. What are the possible
values of X? What are their associated probabilities ?

1
6. In the first semester exams, if the success rate in physics is 80%, the success
rate in chemistry is 70%, and the success rate in both subjects is 60%, a
student is chosen randomly. Find:

1) The probability of being successful in at least one of the two subjects.


2) The probability of success in one of the two subjects at most
3) The probability of passing in physics and failing in chemistry
4) If he passed physics, what is the probability that he will fail chemistry?
5) If he failed in physics, what is the probability that he will fail in
chemistry as well?

7. A single card is drawn from an ordinary deck S of 52 cards. Find the


probability p that the card is: (a) a king, (b) a face Card) Jack, queen, or
king), (e) a red card (heart or diamond), (d) a red face card.

8. A die is weighted so that the outcomes produce the following probability


distribution:

Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6
probability 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2

Consider the events: A = {even number}, B = {2, 3, 4, 5}, e = {x: x < 3},
D = {x: x > 7}
Find the following probabilities: (a) P (A), (b) P (B), (e) P(C), (d) P (D).

2
9. Of 10 girls in a class, 3 have blue eyes. Two of the girls are chosen at
random. Find the probability that: (a) both have blue eyes, (b) neither has
blue eyes, (e) at least one has blue eyes, (d) exactly one has blue eyes .

10. The probability that A hits a target is 1/4, and the probability that B hits the
target is 2/5. Both shoot at the target. Find the probability that at least one of
them hits the target, i.e. that A or B (or both) hit the target and (A U B). we
assume that A and B are independent events; that is, that the probability that
A or B hit s the target is not influenced by what the other does.

11. Let A and B be events with P (A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.3, and P(A ∩ B) = 0.2.
Find: (a) P(A\ B) and P(B\A), (b) P(A U B), (c) P(AC) and P(BC) , P(AC\BC) ,
(b) P(BC\AC).

12. A company produces light bulbs at three factories A, B, C. Factory A


produces 40 percent of the total number of bulbs, of which 2 percent are
defective. Factory B produces 35 percent of the total number of bulbs, of
which 4 percent are defective. Factory C produces 25 percent of the total
number of bulbs, of which 3 percent are defective. If a defective bulb is
found among the total output, find the probability that it carne from: (a)
factory A, (b) factory B, (e) factory C.

13. A test for Alzheimer’s disease is 95 percent effective in detecting the disease
when it is present, but also gives a positive result 10 percent of the time
when it is not present (false positive). Suppose 4 percent of the population
over 65 years have Alzheimer's disease. (a) What is the probability that a
person over 65 years chosen at random will test positively for the disease?

3
(b) Suppose a person over 65 tests positively. What is the probability that the
person has the disease? (e) Suppose a person over 65 tests negatively. What
is the probability that the person has the disease?

14. Suppose a student dormitory in a college consists of the following: (1) 30


percent are freshmen of whom 10 percent own a car (2) 40 percent are
sophomores of whom 20 percent own a car (3) 20 percent are juniors of
whom 40 percent own a car (4) 10 percent are seniors of whom 60 percent
own a car A student is randomly selected from the dormitory. (a) Find the
probability that the student owns a car. (b) If the student owns a car, find the
probability that the student is a junior.

15. The probability that A hits a target is 1/3 and the probability that B hits a
target is 1/5. They both fire at the target. Find the probability that: (a) A does
not hit the target (b) both hit the target (e) One of them hits the target (d)
neither hits the target.

16. In a certain college town, 25 percent of the students failed mathematics, 15


percent failed chemistry, and 10 percent failed both mathematics and
chemistry. A student is selected at random. (a) If the student failed chemistry,
what is the probability that he or she failed mathematics? (b) If the student
failed mathematics, what is the probability that he or she failed chemistry?
(e) What is the probability that the student failed mathematics or chemistry?
(d) What is the probability that the student failed neither mathematics nor
chemistry?

Common questions

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To determine this conditional probability, apply Bayes' theorem: P(Supplier 1 | Defective) = (P(Defective | Supplier 1) * P(Supplier 1)) / P(Defective). From Source 1: P(Defective | Supplier 1) = 0.02, P(Supplier 1) = 0.40, and P(Defective) = 0.0285. Thus, P(Supplier 1 | Defective) = (0.02 * 0.40) / 0.0285 = 0.008 / 0.0285 ≈ 0.2807, or 28.07% .

A standard deck contains 52 cards, out of which 6 are red face cards (3 hearts and 3 diamonds of jack, queen, and king). The probability of drawing a red face card is therefore 6/52 = 3/26, approximately 0.1154 or 11.54% .

To find the probability that a randomly chosen lamp is defective, one must use the law of total probability. The probability that a lamp is defective is the sum of the probabilities of it being defective given it comes from each supplier, weighted by the probabilities that the lamp comes from each supplier. This is calculated as follows: P(Defective) = P(Defective | Supplier 1)P(Supplier 1) + P(Defective | Supplier 2)P(Supplier 2) + P(Defective | Supplier 3)P(Supplier 3). Substituting the given probabilities: P(Defective) = 0.02 * 0.40 + 0.03 * 0.35 + 0.04 * 0.25 = 0.008 + 0.0105 + 0.01 = 0.0285 or 2.85% .

The probability that neither A nor B hits the target is found by taking the complement of each hitting individually: P(A misses) = 1 - P(A hits) = 1 - 1/3 = 2/3 and P(B misses) = 1 - 2/5 = 3/5. Therefore, because these events are independent, P(both miss) = P(A misses) * P(B misses) = (2/3) * (3/5) = 6/15 = 2/5, or 40% .

The probability that a patient received the drug treatment given they are cured, P(Treatment | Cured), can be calculated using Bayes' theorem. Patients who receive the treatment are 75% likely to be cured, while untreated patients have a 50% cure rate. 10 out of 100 patients received the treatment. Therefore, the probability is: P(Treatment | Cured) = P(Cured | Treatment) * P(Treatment) / P(Cured), where P(Cured) = P(Cured | Treatment) * P(Treatment) + P(Cured | No Treatment) * P(No Treatment), which simplifies to (0.75 * 0.1 + 0.5 * 0.9) = 0.525. Therefore, P(Treatment | Cured) = (0.75 * 0.1) / 0.525 ≈ 0.1429 or 14.29% .

When tossing a fair coin three times, the potential outcomes for X, the difference in the number of heads and tails, are -3, -1, 1, and 3. These correspond to the following probabilities: P(X = 3) and P(X = -3) each occur when all outcomes are heads or tails (probability 1/8), P(X = 1) and P(X = -1) occur when two outcomes are heads and one is tails, or vice versa (probability 3/8 each). Thus, the distribution is: P(X = 3) = 1/8, P(X = -3) = 1/8, P(X = 1) = 3/8, P(X = -1) = 3/8 .

This probability is the probability of passing Physics and failing Chemistry: P(Pass Physics ∩ Fail Chemistry) = P(Pass Physics) * P(Fail Chemistry | Pass Physics). Given P(Success in Physics) = 0.80 and P(Fail Chemistry) = 0.15 with P(Success in both) = 0.60. Therefore, P(Pass Physics ∩ Fail Chemistry) = P(Pass Physics) - P(Success in both) = 0.80 - 0.60 = 0.20 or 20% .

This problem involves applying Bayes' theorem for conditional probability. Let A be the event of having Alzheimer's and T be the event of testing positive. The probability sought is P(A | T) = P(T | A)P(A) / (P(T | A)P(A) + P(T | A^c)P(A^c)), where P(T | A) = 0.95 (test true positive rate), P(A) = 0.04, P(T | A^c) = 0.1 (false positive rate), and P(A^c) = 0.96. Substituting these values, we find P(A | T) ≈ 0.95 * 0.04 / (0.95 * 0.04 + 0.1 * 0.96) ≈ 0.2843 or 28.43% .

Using the law of total probability, P(Junior | Car Owner) can be calculated. 20% of students are juniors with 40% owning cars, contributing 0.08 to the probability of a car owner. P(Car Owner) = 0.1*0.30 + 0.2*0.40 + 0.4*0.20 + 0.6*0.10 = 0.05 + 0.08 + 0.08 + 0.06 = 0.27. Therefore, P(Junior | Car Owner) = 0.08 / 0.27 ≈ 0.2963 or 29.63% .

Using conditional probability, P(Fail Math | Fail Chemistry) = P(Fail Math and Chemistry) / P(Fail Chemistry). From the problem: P(Fail Math and Chemistry) = 0.10, P(Fail Chemistry) = 0.15. Thus, P(Fail Math | Fail Chemistry) = 0.10 / 0.15 = 2/3 or approximately 66.67% .

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