Certainly!
Here's a detailed explanation of Network Analysis with a focus on PERT
(Program Evaluation and Review Technique) and CPM (Critical Path Method), their
development, application stages, and time computations:
📘 UNIT: Network Analysis — PERT/CPM
1. Background and Development
PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
Developed by: U.S. Navy in 1958 for the Polaris missile project.
Need: To plan and control large, complex projects with uncertain
activity durations.
Characteristic:
o Probabilistic model.
o Uses three time estimates per activity.
o Suitable for R&D and developmental projects.
o Focus is on time (not cost).
CPM (Critical Path Method)
Developed by: DuPont & Remington Rand in the 1950s.
Need: For scheduling construction and industrial projects.
Characteristic:
o Deterministic model (fixed activity times).
o Includes time-cost trade-offs.
o Suitable for repetitive and predictable projects.
o Focuses on both time and cost.
2. Stages in Application of PERT/CPM
Stage 1: Project Planning
Define the entire project.
Break it into smaller activities or tasks.
Determine precedence relationships among activities.
Stage 2: Network Construction
Draw a network diagram:
o Activity-on-Arrow (AOA) for traditional PERT/CPM.
o Activity-on-Node (AON) for modern project software (like MS
Project).
Represent activities by arrows and events by nodes.
Stage 3: Time Estimation
PERT requires:
o Optimistic time (O): Minimum time to complete an activity.
o Most likely time (M): Best estimate of time.
o Pessimistic time (P): Maximum time if everything goes wrong.
o Expected Time (TE) is calculated using:
T_E = \frac{O + 4M + P}{6}
Stage 4: Critical Path Determination
The critical path is the longest path from start to end.
It determines the minimum project duration.
Activities on this path are critical (no slack).
Stage 5: Time Analysis (Forward and Backward Pass)
Calculate Earliest Start (ES), Earliest Finish (EF).
Calculate Latest Start (LS), Latest Finish (LF).
Determine Slack (Float) = LS – ES or LF – EF.
Stage 6: Monitoring and Control
Use PERT/CPM for progress tracking.
Revise the plan in case of delays or changes.
3. Critical Path Method (CPM)
Purpose:
To identify the sequence of activities that must be completed on time to avoid delaying the entire
project.
Key Concepts:
Term Meaning
Activity A task with defined duration.
Event Start or end point of an activity.
Term Meaning
Critical
Longest duration path in the network.
Path
Slack/ Amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying
Float the project.
4. Determination of CPM
Step-by-step Process:
A. Forward Pass (to find ES and EF)
Start at the beginning node. Set ES = 0.
For each activity:
EF = ES + Duration
ES = \text{Maximum EF of all immediate predecessors}
B. Backward Pass (to find LF and LS)
Start from the last activity.
For final event:
LF = \text{EF of the last activity}
LS = LF - Duration
LF = \text{Minimum LS of all immediate successors}
C. Slack Calculation
For each activity:
\text{Slack} = LS - ES = LF - EF
5. PERT Analysis: Expected Time & Variance
For each activity in PERT:
Expected Time (TE):
T_E = \frac{O + 4M + P}{6}
\sigma^2 = \left( \frac{P - O}{6} \right)^2
For the entire project:
Total expected time = Sum of TE along the critical path.
Total variance = Sum of variances along the critical path.
You can use this to compute:
Probability of completing the project within a given time using the
normal distribution.
📝 Example Network (simplified):
Activi Durati Predecess
ty on or
A 3 -
B 4 A
C 2 A
D 4 B, C
From this, construct the network and apply forward pass to find ES/EF and backward pass to
find LS/LF. Then, identify the critical path (with zero slack).
✅ Summary
Aspect PERT CPM
Time Probabilistic (O,
Deterministic
Estimates M, P)
Focus Time, uncertainty Time-cost trade-offs
Application R&D, new projects Construction, repetitive
Aspect PERT CPM
jobs
Path Analysis Yes (critical path) Yes (critical path)
Slack/Float Yes Yes
Would you like me to create a solved numerical example with a diagram for either