Precipitation and Its

Estimation
Lecture -03

Course Co-ordinator:
Dr. Anupam Chowdhury
Professor
Department of Civil Engineering
Rajshahi University of Engineering & Technology
Email: anupam.19ce@[Link]
 Average Annual Rainfall (AAR)

The mean of yearly rainfall observed for a period of 35 consecutive

years is called the average annual rainfall (a.a.r.).

AAR depends on following factors:

(i) Distance from the ocean

(ii) Direction of the prevailing winds
(iii) Mean annual temperature
(iv) Altitude of the place
(v) Topography
 Index of Wetness

The ratio of rainfall in a particular year to the average annual rainfall

(a.a.r.) is called Index of wetness.

When the rainfall is greater than AAR – wet (good) year

When the rainfall is smaller than AAR –dry (bad or difficult) year
When the rainfall is equal to AAR – normal (average) year

What do you mean by index of wetness 60% for a year?

Rainfall deficiency is 40%

 Classification of climate based on AAR

If AAR < 40 cm – Arid climate – Draught may occur frequently

If AAR = 40 - 75 cm – Semi-arid climate – Draught may occur at

least once a year

If AAR > 75 cm – Humid climate – Draught may not occur generally

 Sources of Errors in Precipitation
Measurement
 Instrument error
 Observer error
 Errors due to different observation times
 Error due to occult precipitation
 Errors due to low-intensity rains

 Any-other ?

Occult precipitation: Precipitation arriving at a location by

processes that would normally go unrecorded by a standard
rain gauge, e.g. the condensation of mist and fog on foliage.
 Interpretation/Preparation of Data

Before using rainfall data for any analysis, it is necessary to check the
record for
• Missing data and/or
• Consistency of data
• Averaging precipitation over an area

Inconsistency in rainfall data may root from

 Change of gauge location
 Change of gauge type
 Change of gauge environment
 Change of gauge observer
 Change of gauge climate
 Methods for Estimates of Missing Data

The following methods can be used to estimate the missing

precipitation data

 Station-average method
 Normal-ratio method

 Inverse-distance weighting

 Regression
 Estimates of Missing Data: Station Average
Method
1 n
PX  Pi
n i1

PX is the missing precipitation value for station X

P1, P2, …, Pn are precipitation values at theadjacent stations for
the same period
n is the number of nearby stations

This method is applicable when 10% variation in annual

precipitation at station X lies within annual precipitation of
surrounding/adjacent stations.
 Estimates of Missing Data: Station Average
Method
Example 1: Find out the missing storm precipitation data of station X given
in following table using station averaging method.

Station 1 2 X 3 4
Storm Precipitation (inches) 3.8 3.25 ? 4.6 3.15
Annual Precipitation (inches) 39.50 43.1 36.8 49.5 46.20
n

PX 
1
 Pi
n i1

What about 10% variation check from annual precipitation ??

Estimates of Missing Data: Station Average
Method

Station 1 2 X 3 4

Storm Precipitation (inches) 3.8 3.25 ? 4.6 3.15

Annual Precipitation (inches) 39.50 43.1 36.8 49.5 46.20

PX 
1
 Pi 
1
3.8  3.25  4.6  3.15 3.7in
n i1 4

What about 10% variation check from annual precipitation ??

Estimates of Missing Data: Normal Ratio Method

PX 1  P1 P2 P  1 n P
   .....  n  or PX   i N X
N X n  N1 N 2 Nn  n i1 N i

PX is the missing precipitation value for station X for a certain time period
P1, P2, …, Pn are precipitation values at adjacent stations for the same period
N X is the long-term, annual average precipitation at station X
N1, N2, …, Nn is the long-term annual average precipitation for neighboring
stations
n is the number of adjacent stations
Estimates of Missing Data: Normal Ratio Method

Example 2: Find out the missing storm precipitation data of station X given
in following table
Station 1 2 X 3 4
Storm Precipitation (inches) 3.8 3.25 ? 4.6 3.15
Annual Precipitation (inches) 39.50 43.1 36.8 49.5 46.20

Test the normal annual precipitation at station X

10% of 36.8  3.68in
 3.68  36.8  40.48in and 33.12in
Since annual precipitation of adjacent station does not lie with 10% so
station averaging method cannot be used and instead normal ratio
method will be used for better accuracy.
Estimates of Missing Data: Normal Ratio Method

Example 2: Find out the missing storm precipitation data of station X given
in following table
Station 1 2 X 3 4
Storm Precipitation (inches) 3.8 3.25 ? 4.6 3.15
Annual Precipitation (inches) 39.50 43.1 36.8 49.5 46.20

X
Estimates of Missing Data: Normal Ratio Method

Example 3:
Checking Consistency of Data: Double Mass
Curve Technique
Checking Consistency of Data: Double Mass
Curve Technique
Checking Consistency of Data: Double Mass
Curve Technique
(i)Check whether the data
of station X is consistent
(ii)In which year
change indicated?
(iii)Compute the mean
annual rainfall for station X
at its present site for the
given 36 year period first
without adjustment
(iv)Compute the adjusted
annual rainfall at station X
for the affected period
(v) Compute the mean
annual rainfall for station X
with the data adjusted for
the change in regime.
Checking Consistency of Data: Double Mass
Curve Technique
Checking Consistency of Data: Double Mass
Curve Technique

CB= 1.17
CB′ = 0.85
Checking Consistency of Data: Double Mass
Curve Technique
 Hyetograph

Hyetograph – it is a chart or
graphic representation of
average distribution of rain
over the earth.
&
It is a plotof intensity of
rainfall against time interval

the hyetograph is derived

from mass curve and is
usually represented as bar
chart.
 Hyetograph

Example: A storm commenced at 7:00 hours. The

ordinates of the rainfall mass-curve of the storm
in mm as recommended by a recording rain
gauge at 15 min intervals are –
0,9.5,17,27,40.5,49,63,84,95,102,110,112,112
construct a hyetograph of this storm for a
uniform interval of 15 min ?
 Hyetograph
time Ordinate of Rainfall in 15 Rainfall
mass min interval intensity i
curve (mm) (mm/hr)
(mm)
7:00 0 0 0
7:15 9.5 9.5 9.5/(1/4) =38
7:30 17 7.5 7.5/(1/4) = 30
7:45 27 10 10/(1/4) = 40
8:00 40.5
8:15 49
8:30 63
8:45 84
9:00 95
9:15 102
9:30 110
9:45
23
112
10:00 112
 Hyetograph

24
Hyetograph
Temporal and Spatial Variation
of Rainfall
 Temporal and Spatial Variation of Rainfall
• Rainfall varies greatly both in time and space
With respect to time – Temporal variation
With space – Spatial variation
• The temporal variation may be defined as hourly, daily, monthly, seasonal
variations and annual variation (long-term variation of precipitation)

Temporal Variation of rainfall at a particular

site

Total Rainfall amount = 6.17cm

14
Rainfall Intensity,

12
10
8
6
cm/hr

4
2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
0
Time, min
 Temporal and Spatial Variation of Rainfall

LongtermPrecipitationvariation atArbaMinch

45

40

35
Annual r ai nf al l , m

30

25

20

15

10
m

0
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Years
Annual Precipitation
averageprecipitation
Temporal and Spatial Variation of Rainfall

Source: Gary R Fuelner, Rainfall and climate records from Sharjah Airport: Historical datafor
the study of recent climatic periodicity in the U.A.E.
 Temporal Averaging of Precipitation
Storm rainfall/precipitation: It is the precipitation of a particular
storm/rainfall event.

Daily Rainfall: The amount of rainfall accumulated in one day at a place,

Mathematically; 24
Pday   Pi
i1
Where Pday is daily rainfall and Pi is hourly storm rainfall during a given
day.

Monthly Rainfall: The amount of rainfall accumulated in one month at a place,

Mathematically;
Pmonth   Pday
30

iday

Where Pmonth is monthly rainfall and Pday is daily precipitation during a given
month.
 Temporal Averaging of Precipitation
Annual Rainfall: The amount of rainfall accumulated in one year at a place,
Mathematically; 365
Pann   Pday
iday

Where Pann is annual rainfall and Pday is daily rainfall

Average rainfall for N years: It is the arithmetic average of annual

precipitation for N years over a rain gauging station. Mathematically;
N

P i
Pavg  i1
N
Where Pavg is average rainfall for N years and Pi is annual rainfall for ith
year
 Spatial Averaging of Precipitation

Average rainfall over an area: It is the amount of

precipitation which can be assumed as uniform over the
given area.

It is estimated by using several approaches given below;

•Arithmetic mean method
•Theissen polygon method
•Isohyetal method
 Methods of Spatial Averaging RainfallData

Arithmetic Mean Method

• When the area is physically and climatically
homogenous and the required accuracy is small,
the average rainfall ( P ) for a basin can be
obtained as the arithmetic mean of the Pi values
recorded at various stations.
• Applicable rarely for practical purpose

P1  P2  ..... P i  .....P n N

P
1
P   i
N N i1
 Methods of Spatial Averaging RainfallData

Thiessen Polygon Method

• The method of Thiessen polygons consists of attributing to
each station an influence zone in which it is considered that
the rainfall is equivalent to that of the station.

• The influence zones are represented by convex polygons.

• These polygons are obtained using the mediators of the

segments which link each station to the closest
neighbouring stations
Methods of Spatial Averaging RainfallData Thiessen
Polygon Method
Methods of Spatial Averaging RainfallData Thiessen
Polygon Method

P7
P6

A7
A6
P2

A2
A1
A8 A5
P1
P8 P5
A3 A4
P3

P4
Methods of Spatial Averaging RainfallData
Thiessen Polygon Method

P1 A1  P2 A2  .....  Pm Am
P 
A1  A2  .....  Am 
Generally for M station

M
 PA i i M

Ai
P  i 1
 Pi
Atotal i 1 A

Ai
The ratio is called the weightage factor of station
A
i
Methods of Spatial Averaging RainfallData Thiessen
Polygon Method
Methods of Spatial Averaging RainfallData Thiessen
Polygon Method

Ai
Ai  P
Pi i
A A

M Ai
Mean precipitation = P
i1
i
A =121.84
Classes of Precipitation
Classes of Precipitation