Scatter Plots

Quantitative
(measurements/counts)
Types of Variables
Qualitative
(groups)

The scatter plot is the basic tool used to investigate

relationships between two quantitative variables.

What do I see in these scatter plots?

Mean January Air Temperatures

for 30 New Zealand Locations
20
C) 19
(°
re 18
17
tu
ra
pe 16
15
m
Te
14
35 40 45
Latitude (°S)

% of population who are Internet Users vs

GDP per capita for 202 Countries
80
70
60
50
(%) 40
rs 30
Use 20
10
et
ern
Int 0
0 10 20 30 40
GDP per capita (thousands of dollars)

Average Age New Zealanders are First Married

30

28

ge 26
A
24

22

20
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Year

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 1 Regression & Correlation

What do I look for in scatter plots?

Trend

Do you see

a linear trend… or a non-linear trend?

straight line

Do you see

a positive association… or a negative association?

as one variable gets bigger, as one variable gets bigger,
so does the other the other gets smaller

Scatter

Do you see

a strong relationship… or a weak relationship?

little scatter lots of scatter

Do you see

constant scatter… or non-constant

scatter?
roughly the same amount of the scatter looks like a “fan”
scatter as you look across or “funnel”
the plot

Anything unusual

Do you see

any outliers?

unusually far from the trend

Do you see

any groupings?

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 2 Regression & Correlation

Rank these relationships from weakest (1) to strongest (4):

How did make your decisions?

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 3 Regression & Correlation

Correlation
 Correlation measures the strength of the linear association between two quantitative
variables
 Get the correlation coefficient (r) from your calculator or computer
 r has a value between -1 and +1:

r = -1 r = -0.7 r = -0.4 r=0 r = 0.3 r = 0.8 r=1

Points fall No linear Points fall
exactly on relationship exactly on
a straight (uncorrelated) a straight
line line
 The correlation coefficient has no units

What can go wrong?

 Use correlation only if you have two quantitative variables

There is an association between gender and weight but there isn’t a correlation between
gender and weight!

 Use correlation only if the relationship is linear

 Beware of outliers!

Always plot the data before looking at the correlation!

r=0 r = 0.9

No linear relationship, No linear relationship,

but but
there is a relationship! there is a relationship!

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 4 Regression & Correlation

 Tick the plots where it would be OK to use a correlation coefficient to describe
the strength of the relationship:
s)
Reaction Times (seconds)
ile
m Distances of Planets from the Sun for 30 Year 10 Students
n
4000 d 0.8
o n
0.6
illi
m 3000 a
H
(
2000 0.4
nt
e a
nc
1000
in
a m 0.2
st o
0
0
Di D
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Position Number
Non-dominant Hand

Mean January Air Temperatures Average Weekly Income for

for 30 New Zealand Locations Employed New Zealanders in 2001
20 1200
C) 19 1000
(°
re 18 800
)
17 600
tu
ra ($
pe 16 e
400
al
15
m
Te M 200
14 0
35 40 45 0 200 400 600 800
Latitude (°S) Female ($)

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 5 Regression & Correlation

What do I see in this scatter plot?

Height and Foot Size

for 30 Year 10 Students
200
)
190
m
(c
180
ht
g
ei
H 170

160

150
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Foot size (cm)

What will happen to the correlation coefficient if the tallest Year 10 student is
removed? Tick your answer:

(Remember the correlation coefficient answers the question: “For a linear relationship, how
well do the data fall on a straight line?”)

It will get smaller It won’t change It will get bigger

What do I see in this scatter plot?

s)
ar Life Expectancies and Gestation Period
e for a sample of non-human Mammals
(Y 40
y
nc
ta 30 Elephant
ec
p
20
x
E
e
Lif
10

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Gestation (Days)

What will happen to the correlation coefficient if the elephant is removed?

Tick your answer:

It will get smaller It won’t change It will get bigger

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 6 Regression & Correlation

 Using the information in the plot, can you
Life Expectancy and Availability of suggest what needs to be done in a country to
Doctors for a Sample of 40 Countries
increase the life expectancy? Explain.
80
y
nc
ta
ec
p 70
x
E
e
Lif 60

50
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
People per Doctor

Life Expectancy and Availability of

Televisions for a Sample of 40 Countries Using the information in this plot, can you

80
y
nc
ta
ec
p 70
x
E
e
Lif 60

50
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
People per Television
make another suggestion as to what needs to
be done in a country to increase life
expectancy?

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 7 Regression & Correlation

Can you suggest another variable that is linked to life expectancy and the availability of doctors (and
televisions) which explains the association between the life expectancy and the availability of doctors
(and televisions)?

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 8 Regression & Correlation

Causation

Two variables may be strongly associated (as measured by the correlation coefficient for linear
associations) but may not have a cause and effect relationship existing between them. The explanation
maybe that both the variables are related to a third variable not being measured – a “lurking” or
“confounding” variable.

These variables are positively correlated:

 Number of fire trucks vs amount of fire damage

 Teacher’s salaries vs price of alcohol
 Number of storks seen vs population of Oldenburg Germany over a 6 year period
 Number of policemen vs number of crimes

Only talk about causation if you have well designed and carefully carried out experiments.

Data Sources

[Link]
[Link]
[Link]
[Link]
[Link]

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 9 Regression & Correlation

Going Crackers!
 Do crackers with more fat content have greater energy content?

 Can knowing the percentage total fat content of a cracker help us to predict the energy
content?

 If I switch to a different brand of cracker with 100mg per 100g less salt content, what
change in percentage total fat content can I expect?

The energy content of 100g of cracker for 18 common cracker brands are shown in the dot plot
with summary statistics below.

Common Cracker Brands

380 430 480 530

Energy (Calories/100g)

Variable Sample Size Mean Std Dev Min Max LQ UQ

Energy 18 449.0 51.8 375.5 535.6 407.3 506.0

Based on the information above, my prediction for the energy content of a cracker is
____________ Calories per 100g.

Another quantitative variable which could be useful in predicting (the explanatory variable)
the energy content (the response variable) of 100g of cracker is ____________________.

The Consumer magazine gives some nutritional information from an analysis of these 18 brands of
cracker. Some of this information is shown in the table below:

Energy Number of Total Fat Salt

(Calories/100g) crackers/100g (%) (mg/100g)
375 16 2.0 600
385 10 2.5 400
408 17 3.5 200
405 56 4.0 500
411 13 4.5 200
405 61 5.0 600
413 5 7.0 700
419 9 7.0 500
426 33 8.0 700
429 7 9.5 900
451 11 14.5 400
484 24 20.5 1300
487 23 22.5 900
505 21 24.0 800
512 16 25.0 700
520 61 27.5 1000
510 31 28.5 1200
536 16 30.5 800

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 10 Regression & Correlation

 Common Cracker Brands What do I see in these scatter plots?
550

500
(calories/100g)
Energy

450

400

0 10 20 30
Total Fat (%)

response variable: y-axis

explanatory variable: x-axis

Common Cracker Brands

550

500
(Calories per 100g)
Energy

450

400

200 700 1200

Salt (mg per 100g)

Common Cracker Brands

550

500
(calories/100g)
Energy

450

400

0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Number of Crackers/100g

From these plots, the best explanatory variable to use to predict energy content is

________________________________________________________ because

_________________________________________________________________________

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 11 Regression & Correlation

Draw a straight line to fit these data (commonly called the fitted line).

Roughly, my line predicts the energy content for a cracker with a 10% total fat content is about

Calories (per 100g of cracker).

550
Which Line?

500
(calories/100g)
Energy

450

400

0 10 20 30
Total Fat (%)

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 12 Regression & Correlation

 Regression

data point
(8, 25)

Regression relationship = trend + scatter

25
Observed value = predicted value + prediction error prediction error
21 y = 5 + 2x

Complete the table below 8

Data Point (8, 25) (6, 7) (-2, -3) (x, y)

Observed y-value 25 y

Fitted line

Predicted value / fitted value 21

Prediction error / residual 4 y-

The Least Squares Regression Line Which line?

Choose the line with smallest sum of squared prediction errors.

Minimise the sum of squared prediction errors

Minimise

 There is one and only one least squares regression line for every linear regression
 for the least squares line but it is also true for many other lines

 is on the least squares line

 Calculator or computer gives the equation of the least squares line

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 13 Regression & Correlation

Problem: Predict the energy content of a 100g of cracker which has a total fat content of 25%.
Name the variables, the units of We have two quantitative variables, energy (Calories per
measure, and who/what is measured 100g) and fat content (%) measured on 18 common
(units of interest). Specify the cracker brands. We are investigating the relationship
question/problem of interest. between these two variables for the purpose of
estimating energy content using the total fat content of a
cracker.
The scatter plot is the basic tool for
Common Cracker Brands
investigating the relationship between 2 550

530
quantitative variables. Check for a
510

linear trend – never do a linear

Energy (Calories per 100g)

490

regression without first looking at the 470

scatter plot 450

430

410

390

370

350
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Total Fat (%)

If the assumptions (straightness of line) The data suggests a linear trend. The association is
appear to be satisfied then fit a linear positive and very strong. The data suggests constant
regression. scatter about the trend line. It is sensible to do a linear
regression.

Common Cracker Brands

550
Use a calculator or computer to get the
530

equation of the least squares line and 510

Energy (Calories per 100g)

other relevant regression output. 490 y = 4.9844x + 380.82

470

450

430

410

390

370

350
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Total Fat (%)

Interpretation: Describe what the The least squares line is or Predicted

equation says in words and numbers. Calories = 381 + 5  Total Fat %. The slope of the fitted
The slope (y / x) describes how ‘Y’ line is 5.0 and the y-intercept is 381.
changes as ‘X’ changes (the behaviour The regression equation says in crackers, on average, an
of Y in terms of X ). increase of about 5 Calories is associated with each 1%
2
Describe what the R value says about increase in total fat content. Under this regression, 100g
this regression (see later). of a fat free cracker is estimated to contain about 381
Calories. The strong relationship (r = 0.99) means that
predictions will be reliable.
Use the equation to answer the original Under this regression an estimate of the energy content
question. for 100g of a cracker with a 25% total fat content is about
381 + 4.98  25 = 505.5 calories.

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 14 Regression & Correlation

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 15 Regression & Correlation
Problem: How does the total fat content of a 100g of cracker change with a 100mg decrease in
salt content?

Name the variables, the units of We have two quantitative variables, total fat content (%)
measure, and who/what is measured and salt content (mg per 100g) measured on 18 common
(units of interest). Specify the cracker brands. We are investigating the relationship
question/problem of interest. between these two variables for the purpose of describing
how the total fat content changes as the salt content
changes.
The scatter plot is the basic tool for
investigating the relationship between
2 quantitative variables. Check for a
Common Cracker Brands
35
linear trend – never do a linear
30
regression without first looking at the Total Fat (%) 25
scatter plot 20
15
10
5
0
0 500 1000
Salt (mg per 100g)

If the assumptions (straightness of

line) appear to be satisfied then fit a
linear regression.

Use a calculator or computer to get

the equation of the least squares line Common Cracker Brands
and other relevant regression output. 35
30 y = 0.0237x - 2.6556
Total Fat (%)

25
20
15
10
5
0
0 500 1000
Salt (mg per 100g)

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 16 Regression & Correlation

Interpretation: Describe what the Sample correlation coefficient r = 0.69.
equation says in words and numbers.
The slope (y / x) describes how ‘Y’
changes as ‘X’ changes (the
behaviour of Y in terms of X ).

Describe what the R2 value says

about this regression (see later).

Use the equation to answer the Under this regression, in a 100g of cracker, a decrease of
original question. about 2.4% of total fat content is associated, on average,
with each 100mg decrease in salt content.

Another data source

Calorie, fat, carbohydrate, protein content for various foods including fast foods by chain:
[Link]

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 17 Regression & Correlation

R-squared (R2)
On a scatter plot Excel has options for displaying the equation of the fitted line and the value of
R2.

Four scatter plots with fitted lines are shown below. The equation of the fitted line and the
value of R2 are given for each plot.

Common Cracker Brands Common Cracker Brands

y = 0.1112x + 372.37 y = 4.9844x + 380.82
550 R2 = 0.4257 550 R2 = 0.982
Energy (calories/100g)

Energy (calories/100g)
500 500

450 450

400 400

350 350
100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 0 10 20 30 40
Salt (mg/100g) Total Fat (%)

Common Cracker Brands Common Cracker Brands

y = 0.3717x + 440.06 y = 0.0237x - 2.6556
550 R2 = 0.0166 35 R2 = 0.4892
Energy (calories/100g)

30
500
Total Fat (%)

25
20
450
15
400 10
5
350 0
0 20 40 60 0 500 1000 1500
Number of crackers per 100g Salt (mg/100g)

Comment on any relationship between the scatter plot and the value of R2.
What do you think R2 is measuring?

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 18 Regression & Correlation

Look at the scatter plot below. What do you notice?

x Observed value Fitted value

55
y y
50
5.2 23.8 45
5.7 25.8 40

y
35
6.5 29.0
30
6.9 30.6
25
7.8 34.2 20
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
8.1 35.4
x
8.4 36.6

9.1 39.4

10.3 44.2

12.0 51.0

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

R2 (guess) = ___________________ R2 (actual) = ___________________

Recall: Regression relationship = Trend + scatter

None

There is variability in the x-values, so we expect variability in the fitted values.

The variability in the fitted values is exactly the same as the variability in the observed values.

The fitted line explains ______________ of the variability in the observed values.

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 19 Regression & Correlation

Look at the scatter plot below. What do you notice?

x Observed value Fitted value

9
y y 8
5.2 3.4 7
6
5.7 7.4 5

y
4
6.5 4.3
3
6.9 7.9 2
1
7.8 4.8 0
4 6 8 10 12 14
8.1 5.8
x
8.4 2.2

9.1 1.4

10.3 6.8

12.0 6.0

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

R2 (guess) = ___________________ R2 (actual) = ___________________

Recall: Regression relationship = Trend + scatter

No variability

There is variability in the x-values, so we expect variability in the fitted values.

However there was no variability in the fitted values.

The variability in the residuals is exactly the same as the variability in the observed values.

The fitted line explains ______________ of the variability in the observed values.

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 20 Regression & Correlation

Consider the scatter plot and table below. The equation of the fitted line is displayed on the plot.

x Observed value Fitted value Residual

y y
5.2 20.1 16.3 3.8
5.7 15.4 18.0 -2.6
6.5 18.7 20.8 -2.1
6.9 22.0 22.2 -0.2
7.8 24.0 25.4 -1.4
8.1 24.4 26.4 -2.0
8.4 26.9 27.5 -0.6
9.1 34.8 29.9 4.9
10.3 37.2 34.1 3.1
12.0 37.2 40.0 -2.8

45
y = 3.4883x - 1.8364
40

35

30
y

25

20

15

10
4 6 8 10 12 14
x

Recall: Regression relationship = Trend + scatter

3. This shows the variability in the

observed values that is not explained
by the linear regression. 1. This shows the variability in
the observed values.

2. From the variability in the

x-values this shows the
variability in the observed
values explained by the
linear regression.

R2 = 0.866

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 21 Regression & Correlation

R-squared

 R2 gives the fraction of the variability of the y-values accounted for by the linear regression
(considering the variability in the x-values).
 R2 is often expressed as a percentage.
 If the assumptions (straightness of line) appear to be satisfied then R 2 gives an overall
measure of how successful the regression is in linearly relating y to x.
 R2 lies from 0 to 1 (0% to 100%).
 The smaller the scatter about the regression line the larger the value of R2.
 Therefore the larger the value of R2 the greater the faith we have in any estimates using the
equation of the regression line.
 R2 is the square of the sample correlation coefficient, r.
 For the above example, the linear regression accounts for 86.6% of the variability in the y-
values from the variability in the x-values.
Exercise: List the plots from greatest R2 to least R2.

A Cement hardness B Optical absorbance versus dissolved carbon

50 0.1
0.09
40 0.08
Optical absorbance

0.07
Hardness (units)

30 0.06
0.05
20 0.04
0.03

10 0.02
0.01

0 0
150 200 250 300 350 400 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Cem ent (gram s) Dissolved organic carbon (m g/L)

C Reaction times, Olympic 100m

D Road conditions in Canada

12 80

11.5
Pavement condition index

70
Time (seconds)

11
60

10.5

50
10

9.5 40
0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2 0.22 0.24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Reaction tim e (seconds) Age (years)

Greatest to least R2: _________________________________________________________

Source: Chance Encounters: A First Course in Data Analysis and Inference by Christopher J. Wild and
George A. F. Seber

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 22 Regression & Correlation

 For each scatter plot, use the value of R 2 to write a sentence about the variability of the y-values
accounted for by the linear regression.

Common Cracker Brands _____________________________________

y = 0.1112x + 372.37
550 R2 = 0.4257 _____________________________________
Energy (calories/100g)

500
_____________________________________
450

400 _____________________________________
350
100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300
Salt (mg/100g)
Common Cracker Brands
y = 4.9844x + 380.82 _____________________________________
550 R2 = 0.982
Energy (calories/100g)

500
_____________________________________

450 _____________________________________
400
_____________________________________
350
0 10 20 30 40
Total Fat (%)
Common Cracker Brands
y = 0.3717x + 440.06 _____________________________________
550 R2 = 0.0166
Energy (calories/100g)

_____________________________________
500

450 _____________________________________
400
_____________________________________
350
0 20 40 60
Number of crackers per 100g
Common Cracker Brands
y = 0.0237x - 2.6556
_____________________________________
35 R2 = 0.4892
30
_____________________________________
Total Fat (%)

25
20
15
_____________________________________
10
5
0 _____________________________________
0 500 1000 1500
Salt (mg/100g)

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 23 Regression & Correlation

Outliers (in a regression context)
An outlier, in a regression context, is a point that is unusually far from the trend.

The following table shows the winning distances in the men’s long jump in the Olympic Games
for years after the Second World War.

Year Winner Distance Year Winner Distance

1948 Willie Steele (USA) 7.82m 1980 Lutz Dombrowski (GDR) 8.54m
1952 Jerome Biffle (USA) 7.57m 1984 Carl Lewis (USA) 8.54m
1956 Gregory Bell (USA) 7.83m 1988 Carl Lewis (USA) 8.72m
1960 Ralph Boston (USA) 8.12m 1992 Carl Lewis (USA) 8.67m
1964 Lynn Davies (GBR) 8.07m 1996 Carl Lewis (USA) 8.50m
1968 Bob Beamon (USA) 8.90m 2000 Ivan Pedroso (Cuba) 8.55m
1972 Randy Williams (USA) 8.24m 2004 Dwight Phillips (USA) 8.59m
1976 Arnie Robinson (USA) 8.35m
Source: [Link]

Men's Long Jump Winning Distances,

Olympic Games, 1948-2004

9
Distance (metres)

8.5

7.5

7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Years since 1944

Comment on the scatter plot.

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 24 Regression & Correlation

Excel output for a linear regression on all 15 observations

Men's Long Jump Winning Distances,

Olympic Games, 1948-2004
y = 0.0164x + 7.8097
2
9 R = 0.5914
Distance (metres)

8.5

7.5

7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Years since 1944

We estimate that for every 4-year increase in years (from one Olympic Games to the next) the

winning distance increases by _________________, on average.

Using this linear regression we predict that the winning distance in 2004 will be ___________.

Excel output for a linear regression on 14 observations (with the 1968 observation removed)

Men's Long Jump Winning Distances,

Olympic Games, 1948-2004 (excl.1968)
y = 0.0177x + 7.7158
9 R2 = 0.8213
Distance (metres)

8.5

7.5

7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Years since 1944

We estimate that for every 4-year increase in years (from one Olympic Games to the next) the

winning distance increases by _________________, on average.

Using this linear regression we predict that the winning distance in 2004 will be ___________.

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 25 Regression & Correlation

 What effect did the 1968 observation have on the:

fitted line?
____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________
predicted winning distance in 2004?
____________________________________________________________________________
value of R2?
____________________________________________________________________________

An outlier, in a regression context, is a point that is unusually far from the trend.

 An outlier should be checked out to see if it is a mistake or an actual unusual observation.

 If it is a mistake then it should either be corrected or removed.

 If it is an actual unusual observation then try to understand why it is so different from the other
observations.

 If it is an actual unusual observation (or we don’t know if it is a mistake or an actual

observation) then carry out two linear regressions; one with the outlier included and one with
the outlier excluded. Investigate the amount of influence the outlier has on the fitted line and
discuss the differences.

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 26 Regression & Correlation

Outliers in X (or x-outliers)
We often talk about a person’s “blood pressure” as though it is an inherent characteristic of
that person. In fact, a person’s blood pressure is different each time you measure it. One thing
it reacts to is stress. The following table gives two systolic blood pressure readings for each of
20 people sampled from those participating in a large study. The first was taken five minutes
after they came in for the interview, and the second some time later.
Note: The systolic phase of the heartbeat is when the heart contracts and drives the blood out.
Source: Chance Encounters: A First Course in Data Analysis and Inference by Christopher J. Wild and
George A. F. Seber (Exercise for Section 3.1.2., Question 3, p113).

Observatio 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
n
1st reading 116 122 136 132 128 124 110 110 128 126
2nd reading 114 120 134 126 128 118 112 102 126 124
Observatio 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
n
1st reading 130 122 134 132 136 142 134 140 134 160
2nd reading 128 124 122 130 126 130 128 136 134 160

Blood Pressure

160

150
Second reading

140

130

120

110

100
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
First reading

Comment on the scatter plot.

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 27 Regression & Correlation

Excel output for a linear regression on all 20 observations

Blood Pressure
y = 0.9337x + 4.9068
160 R2 = 0.8673

150
Second reading

140

130

120

110

100
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
First reading

We estimate that for every 10-unit increase in the first blood pressure reading the second

reading increases by _________________, on average.

For a person with a first reading of 140 units we predict that the second reading will be

________________

Excel output for a linear regression on 19 observations (Observation 20 removed)

Blood pressure (Obs 20 removed)

y = 0.8124x + 20.152
160 R2 = 0.7844

150
Second reading

140

130

120

110

100
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
First reading

We estimate that for every 10-unit increase in the first blood pressure reading the second

reading increases by _________________, on average.

For a person with a first reading of 140 units we predict that the second reading will be

________________

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 28 Regression & Correlation

 What effect did observation 20 have on the:

fitted line?
___________________________________________________________________________________

predicted second reading (for a first reading of 140)?

___________________________________________________________________________________

value of R2?
___________________________________________________________________________________

An x-outlier is a point with an extreme x-value.

 An x-outlier can alter the position of the fitted line substantially, i.e. it can influence the position
of the fitted line.

 The fitted line may say more about the x-outlier than about the overall relationship between the
two variables.

 An x-outlier is sometimes called a high-leverage point.

 If a data set has an x-outlier then carry out two linear regressions; one with the
x-outlier included and one with the x-outlier excluded. Investigate the amount of influence the
x-outlier has on the fitted line and discuss the differences.

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 29 Regression & Correlation

Groupings
In the 1930s Dr. Edgar Anderson collected data on 150 iris specimens. This data set was
published in 1936 by R. A. Fisher, the well-known British statistician.
This data set is widely available. I sourced it from:
[Link]

Fisher's Iris Data

30

25
Petal width (mm)

20

15

10

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Petal length (mm)

Comment on the scatter plot.

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

Fisher's Iris Data

y = 0.407x - 3.4532
30
R2 = 0.9137
25
Petal width (mm)

20

15

10

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Petal length (mm)

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 30 Regression & Correlation

 The data were actually on fifty iris specimens from each of three species; Iris setosa, Iris
versicolor and Iris verginica. The scatter plot below identifies the different species by using
different plotting symbols (+ for setosa, • for versicolor, × for verginica).

_ Let’s see what happens when we look at the groups separately.

Fisher's Iris Data (Iris setosa) Fisher's Iris Data (Iris versicolor)
y = 0.2012x - 0.4822 y = 0.2273x + 3.437
7 20
R2 = 0.11 R2 = 0.3797
6
18
Petal width (mm)

5
Petal width (mm)

16
4
14
3

2 12

1 10

0 8
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Petal length (mm) Petal length (mm)

Fisher's Iris Data (Iris verginica)

y = 0.1839x + 9.8509
30
R2 = 0.1222
25
Petal width (mm)

20

15

10
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Petal length (mm)

Comment.

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Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 31 Regression & Correlation

Watch for different groupings in your data.

 If there are groupings in your data that behave differently then consider fitting a different linear
regression line for each grouping.

More about R2.

 A large value of R2 does not mean the linear regression is appropriate.

 An x-outlier or data that has groupings can make the value of R 2 seem large when the linear
regression is just not appropriate.

 On the other hand, a low value of R 2 may be caused by the presence of a single outlier and all
other points have a reasonably strong linear relationship.

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 32 Regression & Correlation

Prediction
The data in the scatter plot below were collected from a set of heart attack patients. The
response variable is the creatine kinase concentration in the blood (units per litre) and the
explanatory variable is the time (in hours) since the heart attack.
Source: Chance Encounters: A First Course in Data Analysis and Inference by Christopher J. Wild and
George A. F. Seber, p514.

Creatine kinase concentration

1200
Concentration (units/litre)

1000

800

600

400

200

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Time (hours)

Comment on the scatter plot.

____________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________

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Suppose that a patient had a heart attack 17 hours ago. Predict the creatine kinase
concentration in the blood for this patient.

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In fact their creatine kinase concentration was 990 units/litre. Comment.

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Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 33 Regression & Correlation

 The complete data set is displayed in the scatter plot below.

Creatine kinase concentration

1200
Concentration (units/litre)

1000

800

600

400

200

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Time (hours)

Beware of extrapolating beyond the data.

 A fitted line will often do a good job of summarising a relationship for the range of the observed
x-values.

 Predicting y-values for x-values that lie beyond the observed x-values is dangerous. The linear
relationship may not be valid for those x-values.

More about x-outliers.

 The removal of an x-outlier will mean that the range of observed x-values is reduced. This
should be discussed in the comparison between the two linear regressions
(x-outlier included and x-outlier excluded).

Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 34 Regression & Correlation

Non-Linearity
The data in the scatter plot below shows the progression of the fastest times for the men’s
marathon since the Second World War. We may want to use this data to predict the fastest
time at 1 January 2010 (i.e. 64 years after 1 January 1946).
Source: [Link]

Men's Marathon Fastest Times

150

145
Time (minutes)

140

135

130

125

120
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Years since 1 Jan 1946

Concerns:

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Possible solutions:

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Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 35 Regression & Correlation

 Men's Marathon Fastest Times Men's Marathon Fastest Times
y = 0.0078x 2 - 0.769x + 144.68 y = 139.99e-0.0022x
150 150
R2 = 0.9592 R2 = 0.8521

145 145
Time (minutes)

Time (minutes)
140 140

135 135

130 130

125 125

120
120
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Years since 1 Jan 1946 Years since 1 Jan 1946

Men's Marathon Fastest Times

y = 151.08x -0.0452
155
R2 = 0.9401
150

145
Time (minutes)

140

135

130

125

120
0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Years since 1 Jan 1946

Men's Marathon Fastest Times, Men's Marathon Fastest Times,

1946-69 1969-2003
y = -0.6537x + 144.69 y = -0.1089x + 131.66
148 130
R2 = 0.9366 R2 = 0.9024
146
144 129
142
Time (minutes)

Time (minutes)

140 128
138
136 127
134
126
132
130 125
128
126 124
0 5 10 15 20 25 20 30 40 50 60
Years since 1 Jan 1946 Years since 1 Jan 1946

Comments:

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Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 36 Regression & Correlation

 The data in the scatter plot below comes from a random sample of 60 models of new cars
taken from all models on the market in New Zealand in May 2000. We want to use the engine
size to predict the weight of a car.

Models of New Zealand Cars

2000

1500
Weight (kg)

1000

500
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Engine size (cc)

Concerns:

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Possible solutions:

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Level 3 Statistics & Modelling 37 Regression & Correlation