CHAPTER IV.

METHODS OF POLICY ANALYSIS

OBJECTIVES:
1. Identify policy problem
2. Characterize policy problems
3. Structure policy problems

Authoritative Strategies
Bureaucratic Politics
Collaborative Strategies
Competitive Strategies
Interrupted Equilibrium
Organizational Process
Rational Actor Model
Structuring

Methods of Policy Analysis:

1. Structuring Policy Problems for Policy Agency Settings

2. Forecasting Policy Outcomes for Policy Formulation
3. Recommending Preferred Policy for Policy Adoption
4. Monitoring Policy Outcomes for Policy Implementation
5. Evaluating Policy Performance for Policy Evaluation

LESSON 1: STRUCTURING POLICY PROBLEMS

Structuring means organizing or arranging. In the context of policy processes,
it refer to an approach which focuses on the integration of the most views with respect
to the problem situation. Because different stakeholders behold different perceptions
about the
problem and since knowledge is uncertain, interaction between stakeholders is
necessary to formulate a joint problem and its solutions.

Formulating a problem and its solutions implies that uncertainty, ambiguity

and disagreement need to be reduced. The development of stakeholder’s perceptions
and knowledge are central elements to create a joint problem formulation.

Ideally, the outcome of the problem structuring is “negotiated knowledge”.

This is a knowledge which is agreed upon and valid. The content development during
the participatory process should not be seen as final or permanent. Adoption is the
consideration of a problem formulation over a longer period of several decisions
rounds.

LESSON 2: NATURE OF POLICY PROBLEMS

Policy problems are issues formed by the interaction of thought and external
environments. Often, it is complex. Complex problems are of a natural and human
system which consist of many diverse, interdependent elements, hence complex.

Characteristics of Complex, Unstructured Problems

1. Uncertain knowledge
2. Disagreement about normative elements (values, norms or objectives)
3. Disagreement about cognitive elements (research or information)
Sample Problem:
Water Management Issues. They are part of a natural and human system
which consist of many diverse, interdependent elements like:
1. Upstream events influence the water system downstream;
2. Different interdependent government layers manage the water
system;
3. Multiple stakeholders use the water system

LESSON 3: TYPES OF PROBLEMS

PROBLEM WELL-STRUCTURED MODERATELY ILL-STRUCTURED

ELEMENT STRUCTURED
STAKEHOLDERS One Several Many
ALTERNATIVES Known Partially Known Mostly Unknown
OUTCOMES OF Known Partially Known Mostly Unknown
ALTERNATIVES

PROBABILITIES Objective and Objective and Subjective and

OF OUTCOMES determined Uncertain Risky

VALUE (UTILITY Unanimity Consensus Conflict

OF OUTCOMES)

Figure 1: Types of Problems

LESSON 4: TYPES OF POLICY MODELS

Model I. Rational Actor

Analogy- the policy process is like economic enterprises or company in which a
CEO chooses an investment alternative that ears the greatest net profit.
Rule- The greater the benefits of an alternative, and the less the cost, the more
likely the alternative will be chosen.
Characteristics of Model I
1. Policy makers agreed on a problem.
2. They identify objectives.
3. They list all policy alternatives.
4. They predict all outcomes.
5. They determine utility/ value of outcomes.
6. They choose the optimal alternative.
Model II: Organizational Process
Analogy- The policy is like an unending debate in which participants adjust their
positions because they are forced to negotiate and compromise.

Rule- Partisan policy makers mutually adjust their policies so that policies at one
time are only marginally different from policies at a later time.

Characteristics of Model II

1. Policy makers adjust objectives after tradeoffs

2. Policies made at the margins of status-quo
3. Policies made on a limited set of alternatives
4. Changes in Policies occur in small increments
5. Problems reconstructed when new information becomes available.
6. Analysis and evaluation occur throughout society in process that is
fragmented and disjointed
7. Policies involve small steps to remedy a problem a rather than cure them
completely with radical steps.

Model III: Bureaucratic Politics

Analogy -The policy process is like a battle among inhabitants of relatively

isolated islands each of which has its own program and its own ways of
rewarding and punishing its own islanders.

Rule -“Where you stand depends on what you sit.” The favored policy of a
bureaucratic leader depends on the agency or ministry in which she sits.
e.g. administration vs. opposition
Characteristics of Model III

1. Individuals in governmental positions make government decisions and

actions.
2. Actors outside the executive branch play a far less influential role in policy
making than those inside.
 3. An individual's policy preference can be predicted from his or her
governmental position. Decision makers’ policy stands, however, can also be
affected by idiosyncratic factors.
4. An individual's policy goals and interests are influenced by national security,
organizational, domestic, and personal concerns.
5. Deadlines and events compel busy individuals to take policy stands on a
variety of policy issues.
6. Different individuals see different sides of the same policy issue, because they
occupy different governmental positions.
7. An individual's influence on particular policy issues is dictated by (a)
bargaining advantages, (b) willingness to use such assets, (c) skill in using
such advantages, and (d) other actors’ perceptions of the second and third
items.
8. Action-channels – “regularized means for taking action on a specific kind
governmental issue” – activate bargaining advantages and formal or informal
rules that govern political interactions.
9. Governmental decisions and actions are unintended political resultants. That
is, political bargaining produces outcomes that do not reflect what any one
actor would have selected independently.

Model IV: Interrupted Equilibrium

Analogy- Policy making is like biological evolution. Most policies involve small
changes over long period of time. There is a stable, dynamic equilibrium
among competing policies-but from time there are abrupt and perhaps
irreversible changes.
Rule –Periodically, external shocks procedure new political belief and attitudes,
including fear, and these result in large and abrupt changes in policies.

LESSON 5: TECHNIQUES/ STRATEGIES FOR PROBLEM STRUCTURING

1. Authoritative Strategies
These strategies seek to tame wicked problems by vesting the responsibility
for solving problems in the hands of a few people. The reduction in the number of
stakeholders reduces the problem of complexity, as many competing points view are
eliminated at the start. The disadvantage is that authorities and experts charged with
solving the problem may not have an appreciation of all the perspective needed tackle
the problem.
2. Competitive Strategies
These strategies seek to solve wicked problems by pitting opposing points of
view against each other, requiring parties that hold these views to come up with their
preferred solutions. The advantages of this approach is that different solutions can be
weight up against each other and the best one chosen. The disadvantage is that this
adversarial approach creates a confrontational environment which knowledge sharing
is discouraged. Consequently, the parties involved may not have an intensive to come
up with best possible solution.
3. Collaborative Strategies
These strategies aim to engage all stakeholders in order to find the best
possible solution from all stakeholder. Typically, these approaches involve meetings
in which issues and ideas are discussed and a common, agreed approach is
formulated. This one attempts to make those people who are being affected into
participants of the planning process. They are not merely asked but actively involved
in the planning process.