Demography

Abdulhakim N.(MSc)

Haramaya University
Department of Statistics

January 27, 2018

 Outline

Ch-1:- Introduction to Demography

Ch-2:- Population Distribution & Composition
Ch-3:- Mortality and Life Table
Ch-4:- Fertility
Ch-5:- Introduction to indirect techniques for demographic estimation
Ch-6:- Migration
Ch-7:- Population Dynamics
Ch-8:- Population Estimates and Population Projection

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 Chapter-1
Introduction to Demography

Objectives of Chapter-1

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:

Define Demography
Identify the different sources of demographic data
Explain the differences between the major sources of data
List and state steps needed in conducting population census.
State the measurements used in demographic data
Calculate ratios, proportions and rates and discuss their importance,

be able to describe the differences between proportion, probability,a rate and a ratio, and
to explain when the use of each is appropriate.

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 Definition of Demography

Demography can be defined as the study of human populations including their

composition, distributions, densities, growth and other characteristics as well as
the causes and consequences of changes in these factors.
It can also be defined as the study of a population in its Structure and Dynamic
aspects.

1 Population Structure Aspects:

include characteristics at a point of time.
Status of population (number, structure)
such as composition by: Age, Sex, Race ,Marital status ,Economic
characteristics
2 Population Dynamic Aspects:
include characteristics at a period of time.
Numerical changes of population (time frame, place)
Fertility, Mortality, Nuptiality , Migration , Growth

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 Definition of Demography...

Modern demography is divided into two parts, namely:

Demographic Analysis:
this deals with the study of components of change in demographic variables
& the relationships between them i.e. fertility, mortality, and migration.
This is also called formal demography or demographic methods.

Population Studies:
this deals with the study of relationships between demographic variables and
other variables such as socio economic, biological, and political or other
environmental factors.

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 Other Definitions of Demography are:

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 Other Definitions of Demography are:

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 History of Demography:

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 History of Demography:

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 Objectives of Demography

Stockwell (1973), cited in Ogunbameru (2009), stated that the

science of population or demography has four broad objectives
namely:
Ascertaining the size, composition and distribution of the population in
any given area of human habitation
Observing, measuring and describing changes in sizes, composition and
distribution over time
Observing, measuring and describing the process through which such
changes are being affected and
Analysing the underlying determinants and consequences of such
changes.

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 Demographic Principles

Weeks (1998) and Ashry (2012) explained that demography may

describe population from three main aspects, namely: size,
composition and distribution.:
Population size
is the number of people who live in a specified geographical area during
a defined time.
The size of the population is the total number of people in a given
geographical area such as a country, a state, a town or a community.
This number is derived through head counts and periodic statistical
projections. To know the number of all persons in the community, we
use either census or estimated population.

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 Demographic Principles

Population Composition
This is the description of the quality of the population as shown by the
population pyramid (graphical presentation of age and sex composition
of the community)
Population Distribution
Demography shows how people are distributed in the world by
continent, countries, regions, urban or rural, natives or foreigners &
race.
Its depends on environment, & environment has a great deal to do with
population density as well.

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 Uses of Demography

Long (2008), highlighted that demography can be used in politics,

by government, as well as in business.
Politics:
It is all about democracy, which is government of the people, for the
people, by the people.
It is demographic results that will show the number of people to be
governed, the areas (location, communities) to be governed or
represented and the actual people (eligible voters) who will bring them
to power.

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 Uses of Demography

Government:
Government uses demography to plan and allocate resources.
Demographic studies help to identify the various groups in a
community, like: children, women, men, physically challenged, elderly,
and youths etc.
Business:
People who are doing business can use the study of population to their
advantage.
The result of population studies could be put to specific use in business.
For example, if a business sells a product that is desired or required by
age-specific groups, that business can use information from
demographic studies to discover communities where members of that
age-specific group live.

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 Sources of Demographic Data

Demographic data :
Its usually consist of data on age, occupation, religion, marital status,
e.t.c
Its important in providing factual basis for decisions on matters of
public policy and action concerning social and economic affairs.
It can be processed to indicate present and future requirements of the
population in terms of the types and extent of social needs of the
society such as health, education and employment.
planning or research purposes.

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 Sources of Demographic Data
Demographic data are derived mainly from many sources,

National Sources: As primary Sources of demographic data.

Direct Methods:
Census
Vital Registration(civil Registration)
Sample Surveys
Indirect Methods:
these are required in countries where full data are not available, such as
is the case in much of the developing world.
Administrative Sources :- i.e. public records, private records (such as
records of religions bodies)
asking people about siblings, parents, and children.

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 Sources of Demographic Data

International Sources: As secondary sources of demographic data.

UN Demographic Year book
Demographic Handbook for Africa - Economic Commission for Africa
Yearbook on Epidemiological and Vital Statistics - WHO.

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 (1). Census

Census is defined as an enumeration or complete population count at

a point in time within a specified geographical area.
According to UN definition:
Census: is the total process of collecting, compiling, analyzing, and
publishing or otherwise disseminating demographic, economic, and
social data pertaining to all persons in a country or in a well-delineated
part of a country at a specified time
A census provides more reliable and accurate data if properly
enumerated.

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 (1). Census

The conducting of censuses has a long history, but modern censuses

were first held in the 17th century.
Census in Ethiopia started at 1984, the 4th round will be conduct
Feb,2018.
Census data are often referred to as cross-sectional studies because
they give a snap shot of the population at the time of the census.
Vital registration, on the other hand, often permit longitudinal
studies that bring to light time changes in demographic variables.

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 Uses of Census

A census is useful for:

Planning for national development, i.e. educational, housing,
manpower, health planning, and e.t.c.
Investigating the adequate of the relationship between demographic
and socioeconomic processes.
Measuring the levels and trends in the standard of living of the
population.
The allocation of parliamentary seats.
The allocation of resources
And many more...

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 Essential Characteristics of Census

Universality: the enumeration should include every member of the community within
the scope of the census without omission or duplication.
Simultaneity: the total population enumerated should refer to one well defined point
of time.
Individual enumeration: a census implies that separate data are recorded for each
individual by direct enumeration and not by registration.
Compilation and publication: the compilation and publication of data by geographic
areas and by basic demographic variables is an integral part of a census.
Sponsorship: an official national census is sponsored and carried out by the national
government.
Defined Territory: the coverage of a census operation should relate to a precisely
defined territory.

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 Techniques of Census Taking
There are two techniques of conducting census:

(1) DE JURE
This technique is the counting of people according to the permanent place of
location or residence.
Advantages:
It gives permanent picture of a community.
It provides more realistic and useful statistics.
Disadvantages:
Some may be counted twice.
Information collected for persons away from home is incomplete or incorrect.
Some persons may be omitted from the count.

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 Techniques of Census Taking

(2) DE FACTO
This technique of conducting census refers to counting persons where they are
present at the time of the census period.
Advantages:
There is less chance for the omission of persons from the count.
Disadvantages:
Difficult to obtain information regarding persons in transit. These are
persons who are, for example travelling and have left their area of permanent
residence but havent reached the area of destination during the census day.
It provides incorrect picture of the population in a community.
Vital statistics are usually distorted (in areas with high migration).

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 Steps in Conducting Census

Steps in Conducting Census

Planning and preparation
Collecting information
Compilation and analysis
Evaluation

Qualities of a Census
A census must have the following qualities
It should include every individual in the area (no omission or duplication).
Information should relate to a well defined point in time.
It should be taken at regular intervals (preferably every 10 years).
It should refer to people inhabiting a well defined territory.
Information be obtained from personal contact.

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 (2) Registration of Vital Events

It is a regular and continuous registration of vital events.

To collect data on the vital events happening in a population (generally concerned
with live births, deaths, marriages and divorces)
It helps to understand demographic characteristics of different populations at
different points in time
It enables rates of population growth to be calculated; but are much less adequate
than national censuses.
Registration is said to be virtually complete when at least 90 percent of the events
occurring each year are recorded
Vital Registration
Definitions and content
Essential characteristics
Live birth Marriage
Universality
Death Divorce
Continuity

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 2.1 Birth Registration: Live Birth

All live-born infants should be registered and counted as such

irrespective of gestational age or whether alive or dead at time of
registration, and if they die at any time following birth they should
also be registered and counted as deaths.
The United Nations recommends that the following be collected at a
minimum for live birth registration:
Data on event
Date of occurrence
Date of registration
Place of occurrence
Type of birth/delivery
Attendance at birth

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 2.2 Death Registration
Death: Permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any time after live birth
has taken place (post-natal cessation of vital functions without capability of
resuscitation). This definition excludes fetal deaths

Fetal Death
Death prior to the complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product
of conception, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy

The death is indicated by the fact that after such separation the fetus does not
breathe or show any other evidence of life, such as beating of the heart, pulsation
of the umbilical cord, or definite movement of voluntary muscles

Stillbirth
Late fetal death
Stillbirth:the birth of a dead baby; Miscarriage:an early unintentional end to
a pregnancy when the baby is born too early and dies because it has not
developed enough; Abortion:the intentional ending of a pregnancy, usually
by a medical operation
To be used only if essential for national purposes
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 2.2 Death Registration

The United Nations recommends that the following be collected at

the minimum for death registration
Data on event
Date of occurrence
Date of registration
Place of occurrence
Cause of death
Certifier
Data on decedent:
Age or date of birth
Sex
Marital status
Occupation
Place of usual residence

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 2.3 Marriage Registration

Marriage Ceremony or process by which the legal relationship of

husband and wife is constituted
The legality of the union may be established by civil, religious, or
other means as recognized by the laws of each country
The United Nations recommends that the following be collected at a
minimum for marriage registration:
Data on event
Date of occurrence
Date of registration
Place of occurrence
Type of marriagecivil, religious, customary
Data on bride and groom
Age or date of birth
Previous marital status
Place of usual residence

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 2.4 Divorce Registration

Divorce Final legal dissolution of a marriage, that is, that separation

of husband and wife which confers on the parties the right to
remarriage under civil, religious and/or other provisions, according to
the laws of each country
Evaluation of coverage and content
Matching studies
Aggregate demographic analysis
Data on bride and groom
Age or date of birth
Previous marital status
Place of usual residence

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 Advantages & Disadvantages of Vital Registration

Advantages:
Continuous monitoring of vital rates
May provide both numerator and denominator for some rates (e.g., Infant
Mortality RateIMR)
Small area data available
Base for testing the accuracy of censuses and surveys
Disadvantages:
Uncertain coverage: Difficult to ensure registration of all the events
Limited background information
Time reference often inconsistent with denominator definition
Information may come from third party
Easily disrupted by political/economic events
Literacy/numeracy
Costly

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 (3) Sample Surveys

A sample survey is another source of demographic data carried out in

a scientifically selected area which covers only a section or portion
(sample) of the population under consideration.
As countries have began increasingly to formulate population policies
as part of their development programs, especially since 1970; so they
have required more data about their populations.
Demographic surveys have become increasingly important as a
comparatively rapid method of obtaining such information.
Today, the main bulk of useful and insight providing demographic
data come from surveys.

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 Advantages & Disadvantages of Sample Surveys

Advantages:
Can be quick
Relatively inexpensive
Flexible
Can include detailed data
Needs little continuity effort
Some control on coverage and content errors
Follow-up allows control for sampling distortion
Disadvantages:
Coverage and content errors
Misses certain types of events
Slow
Needs continuity of effort over (extended) time
High cost

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 Basic components of demography

The major components of demography were identified as:

demographic perspective which influences the way people understand

and interpret questions involving population;
population processes, otherwise known as components of population
change which include birth, death, and migration;
population structure; that is, characteristics of populations such as
the age and sex of a given population, the race and ethnicity of a
population, their socioeconomic status, and education; and that
demographic processes and structure interact with other social issues.

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 Basic Demographic Measures

The major demographic processes of fertility, mortality and migration

constitute the basic components to determine the size, composition
and distribution of a population which require basic tools and
techniques of measurement.

Basic Tools of Measurement:

Ratios
Proportions
Probability
Rates

Basic Demographic Measure:

Fertility
Mortality
Marriage
Migration

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 Ratio

It is a quecient of any two demographic quantities.

Indicates the relative magnitude of a numerator and a denominator
It tend to be descriptive statistics
Ex:
Sex ratio at birth (male births per 100 female births)
Child-woman ratio (number of children aged 0 to 4 years divided by
the number of women aged 15 to 44 years or 15 to 49 years)
Dependency ratio (population aged under 15 or over 64 divided by
the population aged 15 to 64 and multiplied by 100)
Maternal Mortality Ratio
Qualification:
The numerator and denominator (a and b) are defined for a specific
geographic area and period of time.
The numerator may or may not be a sub group of the denominator.

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 Three P’s

Proportions, Probability & Percentage

It is a ratio which indicates the relation in magnitude of a part of the
whole.
The numerator is always included in the denominator.
A proportion is usually expressed as a percentage.
Ex:
Males to total population ratio
Illegitimate Birth Ratio

Percentage When proportion multiplied by 100, is known as a percentage.

Probability A ratio in which the numerator consists of those in a population
experiencing an event of interest (e.g., death) over a specified period of time,
while the denominator consists of the at-risk population.

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 Rates

It indicates the change in some event that takes place in a population

over a period of time.
It is defined per unit of time.
A Rate is a ratio or a proportion in which the numerator is part of the
denominator.
All rates are ratios, but all ratios are not rates.
Rates are special cases of a ratio
Rates tend to be associated with population change
Numerator: Count of events that occur during a period
Denominator: Midpoint population, or person-years, or other
person-time units of exposure for the same period as the numerator
Persons exposed to the event are included in the denominator, but
others can also be included

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 Examples of Rate:

Crude rates Age Specific Death Rate (ASDR)

Crude Birth Rates (CBR) Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Crude Death Rate (CDR) Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
Specific rates Cause Specific Death Rates (CSDR)
General Fertility Rate (GFR) Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR) Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR)

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 Crude Rate
The number of events is divided by the total population
Problems:
Denominator contains some individuals not susceptible to the event
Is affected by age structure of the population; makes comparison
between populations difficult
Persons exposed to the event are included in the denominator, but
others can also be included
Ex:

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 Specific Rate

Specific rate: The number of events is divided by some

homogeneous sub-group of the total population.

Age-specific death rate: Deaths in a specific age group divided by

the mid-point population of that age group

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 Infant mortality rate

Is not a rate in the technical sense since the denominator is not in

terms of midyear population or person-years of exposure
Is not a probability since the numerator includes events to births not
included in the denominator
Should thus be regarded as a ratio, though it is called a rate
Formula:

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 Chapter-2
Population distribution and composition

Objectives of Chapter-2

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:

know how to calculate useful measures from mortality, morbidity, and
fertility data.
Explain the differences between Population distribution and
composition
List and state commonly used characteristics to describe or compare
populations
Explain Sex and Age Composition.
Understand the concepts of mortality, morbidity, and fertility.

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 Some of Basic Terms

Population Composition/Structure:
The classification of members of a population by one or more
characteristics such as age, sex, race, and ethnicity.
It can be presented in either absolute or relative numbers.
Population distribution & structure are often used as synonyms.
Population Distribution:
Usually refers to the location of a population over space at a given
time, how they are arranged in a given space
sometimes used as a synonym for population composition.
Population Density:
Number of persons inhabiting a given area. how many there are in a
given space.
Population Size:
The number of persons inhabiting a given area at a given time.

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 Some of Basic Terms
Population Pyramid:
A graphic device that shows the age-sex composition of a given
population and possibly other characteristics as well.
It is in pyramidal form, ranging from an equilateral triangle to a
near-rectangle, with the shape determined by the effects of the
components of population change on a prior age-sex composition.
Population Dynamics:
Changes in population size and structure due to fertility, mortality, and
migration, or the analysis of population size and structure in these
terms.
Population Projection:
The numerical outcome of a particular set of implicit and explicit
assumptions regarding future values of the components of population
change for a given area in combination with an algorithm.
Strictly speaking, it is a conditional statement about the size of a
future population (often along with its composition and distribution),
ideally made in accordance with one of the two standards used in
defining a population, de facto or de jure.
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 Some of Basic Terms

Standard Population:
Areference population used for purposes of analyzing a population of
interest.
Also, specifically, a population whose age distribution is employed in
the calculation of standardized rates by the direct method.
Stable Population (Model):
A population with an unchanging relative age composition and a
constant rate of change in its total size, resulting from conditions of
constant fertility and mortality rates over an extended period, about 70
years.
Stationary Population:
A stable population in which the rate of increase is zero and the total
size and both the absolute and relative age composition are constant.
It also represents the number of Person-years lived by the survivirs in
each age group in a life table.

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 Uses of Age & Sex Data

Characteristics of age & sex hold positions of prime importance in

demographic studies. Separate data for males & females & for ages
are important in themselves,
For the analysis of other types of data,
For the evaluation of the completeness & accuracy of the census
counts of population.
For many types of planning, both public and private, such as military
planning, planning of community institutions and services, particularly
health services, and planning of sales programs require separate
population data for males & females & for age groups.

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 Uses of Age & Sex Data

Age is an important variable in measuring potential school

population, the potential voting population and potential
manpower.
Age data are required for preparing current population estimates
and projections; projections of households, school enrollment,
and labor force, as well as projections of requirements for
schools, teachers, health services, food, and housing.
Social scientists of many types also have a special interest in the age
and sex structure of a population, because social relationships within
a community are considerably affected by the relative numbers of
males and females and the relative numbers at each age.
The sociologist and the economist have a vital interest in data on age
and sex composition.

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 Uses of Age & Sex Data

The balance of the sexes affects social and economic relationships

within a community.
Social roles and cultural patterns may be affected. For example,
imbalances in the number of men and women may affect marriage
and fertility patterns, labor force participation, and the sex roles
within the society.
Age is arguably the most important variable in the study of mortality,
fertility, nuptiality, and certain other areas of demographic analysis.
Tabulations on age are essential in the computation of the basic
measures relating to the factors of population change, in the analysis
of the factors of labor supply, and in the study of the problem of
economic dependency.

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 Sex

Sex data reporting Errors:

Parents may report young boys as girls so that they may avoid the
attention of evil spirits or so that they may be overlooked when their
cohort is called up for military service.
The same factors may contribute to differential underenumeration of
the two sexes.
Numerical measures of sex composition:are few & simple to compute.
1 Sex ratio
2 Sex ratio of Births
3 Sex ratio of Deaths
4 Sex ratio of Migrants

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 Sex Ratio

Sex Ratio:Proportion of males relative to females in a population.

Pattern by age
Higher at very young ages
Gap narrows with increasing age
Goes below 100 by middle age
Other characteristics
Varies from one population to another
Desirable to consider separately the sex ratio of important component
subgroups (e.g. by race, by ethnicity)
General formula:

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 Sex Ratio of Births

Sex Ratio of Births:Number of male births per 100 female births

General formula:

Interpretation:
Ratio <100 ⇒ More female than male births
Ratio = 100 ⇒ Same number of male & female.
Ratio >100 ⇒ More male than female births.
In human populations, there are more male births than female births,
with ratio generally between 104 and 107
Important characteristics which distinguish births with respect to their
sex ratio are age of mother, order of birth, or ethnic group

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 Sex Ratio of Deaths

Sex Ratio of Deaths: Much more variable from area to area than
sex ratio at birth
Often well above 100, i.e. males have a higher mortality
Important characteristics to include in further analyses are age, ethnic
group, residence, marital status, and occupation
General formula:

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 Sex Ratio of Migrants

Sex Ratio of Migrants: Shows more extreme values than sex ratio
of either birth or death
Less uniform from area to area
Patterns of sex-selectivity of migrants vary depending largely on types
of occupational opportunities and on cultural factors
General formula:

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 Age

General definition of age: The length of time that a person has

lived. A distinction is made between completed age and exact age,
with completed age usually defined in terms of the last birthday and
exact age being the exact time since birth. Conventions for
determining age vary somewhat between cultures and countries.
Demographers definition of age: Completed age, i.e. age of an
individual at last birthday
Data on age may be secured by
Asking a direct question on age
Asking a question on date of birth, or month and year of birth
Or a combination of these

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 Age data Reporting Errors

Content
Centenarians
Those close to 100 years tend to overestimate their age
Understatement
Women tend to understate their age
Overstatement
Mothers tend to round up the age of their children
Heaping/Digit preference
People tend to report certain ages at the expense of others.
Can occur at any digit but happens most often with 0 and 5.
Distributing unknown and/or unreported age
Needs to be imputed with care.

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 Age data Reporting Errors
Centenarians: someone who is a hundred years old or more
Understatement:when someone describes or explains something in a way that
makes it seem less important, serious, bad, etc. than it really is
Overstatement:when someone describes or explains something in a way that
makes it seem more important or serious than it really is
Age Heaping: A higher-than-expected proportion of ages with certain terminal
digits and a lower than expected proportion with other terminal digits, often
adjacent, because of digit preference or digit avoidance.
Digit Avoidance: A tendency for people to avoid reporting ages with certain
terminal digits.
Digit Preference: A tendency for people to prefer reporting ages with
certain terminal digits.
Age Preference: The tendency for people to report an age different than their
actual age because of cultural, social, or personal reasons.
Age Misreporting: The tendency for people to not report their correct age
because they do not know it exactly or because they prefer to report another age,
often an adjacent age or age group.
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 Age data Reporting Errors

The tendency of enumerators or respondents to report certain ages at

the expense of others is called age heaping, age preference, or
digit preference.
The latter term refers to preference for the various ages having the
same terminal digit.
Age heaping is most pronounced among populations or population
subgroups having a low educational status.
Distributing unknown and/or unreported age
Needs to be imputed with care.
Coverage Missed or counted twice.
There is a tendency to miss the people in certain age groups (e.g.
young men)
Some people are counted twice

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 58 / 116

 Age Ratio
May be defined as the ratio of the population in the given age group to one-third
of the sum of the populations in the age group itself and the preceding and
following groups, times 100.
Alternatively, age ratios have been defined as the ratio of the population in an age
group to one-half the sum of the population in the preceding and subsequent
groups, times 100. The definition given above is preferred.
Two formulas available: Let ax =number of persons of age x

Example: The age ratio for a 5-year age group, 5Pa is defined as follows:
5Pa
1
∗ 100 or
2
(5Pa−5 + 5Pa+5 )
5Pa
1
∗ 100
3
(5P a−5 + 5Pa + 5Pa+5 )

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 59 / 116

 Age Ratio & Method for Detecting of Age Errors

Age ratios used to estimate data quality

The age ratio is then:
Compared to 100
Plotted by single year of age
Indices and methods have been developed to summarize the preference of or
avoidance of particular terminal digits, e.g. Whipples index, Myers blended
method
In sum, age ratios serve primarily as measures of net age misreporting, not
net census error, and they are not to be taken as valid indicators of error for
particular age groups.
Myer’s blended method: A measure of age heaping introduced by [Link] in
1940 that involves a comparison of expected proportions of population at
ages with each terminal digit and the reported proportions of the population
at the ages with these terminal digits.
Whipple’s index: A measure of age heaping, calculated as the ratio of the
sum of populations ending in terminal digits 0 and 5 in the range 23 to 62
years to one-fifth the total population 23 to 62 years.

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 Age Distribution of M & F Over Age 30 in Mexico 1990

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 61 / 116

 Extent of Age Heaping in Mexico, 1990

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 Correction of Age Errors

Grouping
Generally by 5 or 10 years
Avoid problem of fluctuations in single year data
Interpolation
To be developed later on in this course (we will discuss it on last
chapter)
Analysis
When working with several populations, comparison of age
distributions is a classic demographic analysis.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 63 / 116

 Summary Measure of differences between age distributions

(1) Index of Dissimilarity (ID)

is based on the absolute differences between the percentages at each
age.
Indicates the percent of one population that needs to be redistributed
to have the age distribution of the other
Can be calculated for any two comparable percent distributions
Does not tell which population has the older population.
General formula:

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 64 / 116

 Summary Measure of differences between age distributions

(2) Index of Relative Difference(IRD)

The magnitude of the differences between any two age distributions, whether
for different areas, dates, or population subgroups, may be summarized in
single indexes from the individual age-specific proportions or indexes.
Can be calculated
1 the deviations of the age-specific indexes from 100 are summed without

regard to sign,
2 one-nth (n representing the number of age groups) of the sum is taken

to derive the mean of the percentage differences at each age, and

3 the result in step 2 is divided by 2 to obtain the index of relative

difference.
very large percent differences at the oldest ages,
General formula:

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 65 / 116

 Summary Measure of differences between age distributions
(3) Median Age
The median age is often used as a basis for describing a population as young or old
or as aging or younging (i.e., growing younger).
The median age which divides the population into two equal-size groups, one
younger and the other older
General formula:

Where:
N th
lMd =Lower limit of class containing ( )item.
2
N
P = Sum of all frequencies,.e. population size.
fx =Sum of frequencies in all classes preceding the 1 containing ..
N th
fMd =Frequency of class containing the ( )item.
2
i = Width of class interval containing..
The median is preferred to the mean because of:
The marked skewness of the age distribution
The calculation of mean is often complicated by open-ended age groups (e.g.
80+)
Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 66 / 116
 Median Age

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 67 / 116

 Numerical measures of Age composition

They are:
1 Age ratio
2 Median Age
3 Index of Dissimilarity (ID)
4 Age-Dependency Ratios
5 Child-Dependency Ratio
6 Old-Age Dependency Ratio
Notations:
P0−14 =Proportion of children under 15
P65+ =Proportion of aged persons
P15−64 =Proportion of persons of working age

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 68 / 116

 Age Ratio
May be defined as the ratio of the population in the given age group to one-third
of the sum of the populations in the age group itself and the preceding and
following groups, times 100.
Alternatively, age ratios have been defined as the ratio of the population in an age
group to one-half the sum of the population in the preceding and subsequent
groups, times 100. The definition given above is preferred.
Two formulas available: Let ax =number of persons of age x

Example: The age ratio for a 5-year age group, 5Pa is defined as follows:
5Pa
1
∗ 100 or
2
(5Pa−5 + 5Pa+5 )
5Pa
1
∗ 100
3
(5P a−5 + 5Pa + 5Pa+5 )

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 69 / 116

 Age Ratio & Method for Detecting of Age Errors

Age ratios used to estimate data quality

The age ratio is then:
Compared to 100
Plotted by single year of age
Indices and methods have been developed to summarize the preference of or
avoidance of particular terminal digits, e.g. Whipples index, Myers blended
method
In sum, age ratios serve primarily as measures of net age misreporting, not
net census error, and they are not to be taken as valid indicators of error for
particular age groups.
Myer’s blended method: A measure of age heaping introduced by [Link] in
1940 that involves a comparison of expected proportions of population at
ages with each terminal digit and the reported proportions of the population
at the ages with these terminal digits.
Whipple’s index: A measure of age heaping, calculated as the ratio of the
sum of populations ending in terminal digits 0 and 5 in the range 23 to 62
years to one-fifth the total population 23 to 62 years.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 70 / 116

 Age Distribution of M & F Over Age 30 in Mexico 1990

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 71 / 116

 Age Dependency Ratio

(1) Age-Dependency Ratios:

The variations in the proportions of children, aged persons, and persons of
working age are taken account of jointly in the age dependency ratio (or its
complement, the support ratio).
Variations in the age dependency ratio reflect in a general way the
contribution of variations in age composition to variations in economic
dependency.
The age dependency ratio is a measure of age composition, not of economic
dependency, however. The economic dependency ratio may be defined as the
ratio of the economically inactive population to the active population over all
ages or of non-workers to workers
Proportion of children less than 15 and elderly 65+ relative to the population
of working ages
Formula:

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 72 / 116

 Dependency Ratio
Dependency Ratio: The ratio of the number of persons in a given dependent age
group of interest to the number in a different age group considered to contain
those persons providing support to those dependent (e.g., the number of persons
less than 15 years of age divided by the number aged 15 to 64)
(2) Child-Dependency Ratio:
The ratio of the number of persons in a given dependent age group of
interest to the number in a different age group considered to contain those
persons providing support to those dependent (e.g., the number of persons
less than 15 years of age divided by the number aged 15 to 64)
Proportion of children less than 15 relative to the population of working ages
Formula:

(3) Old-Age Dependency Ratio:

Proportion of adults over age 65 relative to the population of working ages
Formula:

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 73 / 116

 Graphic Measures
two graphic measures that are particularly applicable to the analysis of age
composition,
(1) Age Pyramid:
(2) Time Series Charts:
(1) Age Pyramid:
Gives a detailed picture of the age-sex structure of a population
Consists of bars representing age groups in ascending order from lowest to
highest pyramided on one another
Bars are generally by single or 5-year age groups
Number (or percentage) of persons in an age group is indicated by length of
its bar from central axis
Males on left side; females on right side
Pyramids with absolute numbers show differences in overall sizes of total
populations and in number at each age
Percent pyramids show relative differences in population size at each age-sex
group
pyramids are usually truncated at an open-ended age group where the data
begin to run thin (e.g., 75 years and over, or 80 years and over, or higher).
Pyramids may be constructed on the basis of either absolute numbers or
percentages.
Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 74 / 116
 3 Patterns of Population Change by using age-sex Pyramid

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 75 / 116

 Chapter-3
Mortality and Life Table

Objectives of Chapter-3

Distinguish among different terms used to describe mortality in the

populations.
Identify different sources of data to calculate different indicators of
mortality
Calculate and interpret different crude indicators of mortality.
List and calculate the different measures of mortality

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 76 / 116

 Introduction

Mortality studies are important to know the socio-economic and

demographic implications of death, Which is vital in the life of an
individual, family, community and the nation at large.
Mortality determines the population size and influences the age
structure of the population.
The death risks are greater at the two extreme phases of life (i.e.,
early and advanced ages).

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 77 / 116

 Concepts & measurement of death statistics

Death is one of the principal vital events’ that occur in human beings
once in their lifetime.
Death statistics is an important input in the study and analysis of
[Link] processes and public health administration.
The application of death statistics or mortality analysis goes beyond
demographic and health subject area, where actuarial demands of
insurance companies during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries
have contributed for its development.
Death statistics in general could be said as the founding field of study
for vital statistics information system.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 78 / 116

 Definition of death & related events

The concept and definition of death may appear obvious, however,

the problem comes when the need arise to differentiate and demarcate
between life and death specifically during birth.
Hence, in order to have a comprehensive understanding of the
statistical definition of death it is important to give the definitions of
its complements, that is, live birth and fetal death.
The United Nations and the World Health Organization have
proposed the following definition of death:
”death is the permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any
time after birth has taken place”(Shryock and Siegel, 1976:221).
Hence, death can only occur after a live birth has occurred. Then
when do we say a live birth has occurred?

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 79 / 116

 Definition of death & related events
According to the UN recommendation a live birth is defined as ”the
complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of
conception irrespective of the duration of pregnancy, which, after
such separation, breathes or shows any other evidence of life such as
beating of the heart, pulsation of the umbilical cord, or definite
movement of voluntary muscles, whether or not the umbilical cord has
been cut or the placenta attached”(Shryock and Siegel, 1976:273).
The definition of a live birth excludes the incidences of a birth of dead
foetus. Such deaths prior to live birth are known as fetal death.
A fetal death is defined as ”death (disappearance of life) prior to the
complete expulsion from its mother of a product of conception
irrespective of the duration of pregnancy; the death is indicated by
the fact that after such separation the fetus does not breathe or show
any other evidence of life; such as beating of the heart pulsation of
the umbilical cord,or definite movement of voluntary muscles”
(Shryock and Siegel, 1976 :221 ).
It includes stillbirth, miscarriages and abortions.
Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 80 / 116
 Data requirements for mortality statistics

Principally two types of data are required to measure levels and

patterns of mortality in any part of the world whether developed or
developing country.
The first is the number of deaths that should be obtained from vital
statistics reregistration system, while the second type is the size of
the population exposed to the risk of death at a particular time period
that should be obtained through censuses or surveys or population
estimates.
The data collection methods used to secure mortality data are the
traditionally developed and conventionally recommended data source
on the measurement of mortality.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 81 / 116

 Data requirements for mortality statistics

However, due to lack of registration system, specifically in the

developing world, the data on death events is usually obtained
through provisional or alternative methods for the measurement of
vital events, that is, from censuses and sample surveys.
The available death statistics data sources in the two categories of
the world could be summarized as shown in Table 4.1.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 82 / 116

 Basic mortality measures

There are various measures of mortality based on death statistics.

However, each one of them differs mainly in their degree/of
refinement or whether they are summary measures or specific
measures.
The measures of mortality are treated with respect to observed rates,
which are computed from actual data or adjusted rates, which are
hypothetical representation of the level of mortality for a given
population, involving the use of various assumptions.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 83 / 116

 Crude death rate

One of the simplest and most commonly used summary measures of

mortality is the crude death rate.
The crude death rate (CDR) is defined as-the number deaths in a
year per 1,000 of the mid-year population.
D
That is: CDR = ∗ 1000
P
where CRD represents the crude death rate,
D is the number of deaths in the calendar year and
P the mid-year population, which is an approximation to the average
population exposed to the risk of death during the year.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 84 / 116

 Crude death rate

As indicated above, in countries that do not have vital statistics

registration system it would be difficult to make direct calculation of
crude death rate.
The crude death rate is a crude measure because it does not take into
account the effects of variations in age as well as variations among
different population groups, and hence it is considered as a poor
measure of mortality.
In other words, different sub-groups in a population are exposed to
different risks of dying because of their occupation or their age or
some other characteristic.
Because of these differentials in exposure to the risk of dying,specific
death rates are often used.

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 Specific death rate

Specific death rates refer to specific categories of deaths &

population.
These categories may be subdivisions of the population or deaths
according to age, sex, occupation, educational level, causes of death,
etc.
Therefore, specific death rates are calculated in relation to particular
group of population, for instance, the commonly used are age and sex.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 86 / 116

 Specific death rate

Age-sex specific death rate: is defined as the number of deaths of

males or females, in a particular age group per 1,000 male or female
populations in the age group.
It is calculated as:
Dam
ASSDR = ∗ 1000
Pam
or

Daf
ASSDR = ∗ 1000
Paf

where Dam ; and Daf are the number of male and female deaths in the
age group a, respectively; and
Pam and Pamf are the mid-year population of males and females in age
group a,respectively.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 87 / 116

 Graphical presentation of age-specific death rates
Presenting age-sex specific death rates using graph allows observing
pattern of mortality and hence enables comparisons among different
mortality schedules.
The general pattern of mortality, which is described by graphing
age-sex specific death rates for any population fallows roughly similar
pattern where it starts at a high level in infancy, drops to low levels
during childhood and early adulthood, and then rise gradually into old
age.
A typical age pattern of mortality is presented below.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 88 / 116

 Graphical presentation of age-specific death rates

Even though specific death rates for age are refined measures of
mortality, however, they are difficult to make comparisons because
they are not single figure indices.
Hence, it is necessary to have a method that summarizes the specific
rates, where such problems could be overcome by the method of
standardization.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 89 / 116

 Standardization

Standardization is a general statistical method used in many areas

other than mortality analysis.
As we have seen above, the age and sex compositions of the
population have a pronounced effect on the crude death rate.
Other aspects of population composition may also have such effects.
Examples of other variables that influence death rates are:
(a) Urban or rural residence (perhaps because of unequal health care
facilities, living standards, infrastructures)
(b) Different occupational compositions (miners are more subject to
risk than judges or most professional workers)
(c) Different income compositions (the wealthy can afford better
medical care)
(d) Marital status (the married usually have lower mortality than the
single, widowed, or divorced)

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 90 / 116

 Standardization

The procedure of adjustment of the crude rates to eliminate from

them the effect of differences in population composition with respect
to age and other variables is called standardization.
The purpose of standardization is, therefore, to allow a more precise
comparison of crude rates by eliminating the effect of differences in
age composition and other variables.
The age composition of a population, in particular, is a key factor
affecting the level of the crude death rate.
For purposes of comparison of death rates over time or from area to
area, it is important to eliminate the effect of the difference in age
structure of two populations being compared.
There are two types of standardization, known as ’direct’ and
’indirect’ standardization.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 91 / 116

 Direct standardization

Direct standardization involves taking a standard population and

applying to it the specific rates for the population being compared.
Applying to mortality data, the formula for direct standardization is
given as: P
m a Pa
m1 = ∗ 1000
P
da
Where ma = is age specific death rate in the given area,
Pa
Pa represents the standard population at each age, and
P represents the total standard population.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 92 / 116

 Direct standardization

Direct standardization serves to provide the best basis for determining

the relative difference between mortality in two areas or at two dates.
The steps in the direct standardization procedure are the following:
1 Select a population in which we have the frequencies in age group (if
possible by 5-year age group) that can be used a standard population.
2 The age specific death rates (ASDR) of the population under
consideration should be given.
3 Calculate the expected deaths by multiplying the ASDR with the
number of people in the corresponding age group of the standard
population.
4 Find the total number of the expected deaths.
5 Compute the standardized death rate as:
Totalexpecteddeaths
Totalstandardpopulation

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 93 / 116

 Direct standardization

The age standardized death rate for the standard population is the
same as its own death rate, since the age specific death rates for the
standard population would be weighted by its own population.
Although standardized crude death rates or age adjusted death rates
may reveal whether the mortality level of one area is higher or lower
than that of another area, the procedure has certain limitations.
The use of different standard may change the relative values of the
standardized rate.
As a general rule it is recommended to select as a standard an age
distribution that is similar to the age distributions of the various
populations under study.
We can standardize the death rate for both age and sex jointly.
In doing this, each age sex specific death rate is multiplied by the
proportion of the total standard population in that age sex group.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 94 / 116

 Direct standardization:Example
An example is given in Table 4.2 to demonstrate the procedures of
direct standardization.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 95 / 116

 Direct standardization:Example

From the above calculations we can conclude that age standardized

death rate for country A is higher than country B, which implies that
mortality is higher in country A than B.
However, it cannot be concluded that mortality is twice as high in
country A as in the standard population.
The standardized death rates permit only the ranking of the computed
values not the measurement of levels of mortality in different areas.
It is, therefore, recommended to consider the percent difference of the
adjusted and crude rates of each country relative to the standard.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 96 / 116

 Indirect standardization
Indirect standardization applies the actual age structure of each of the
population to be compared with an arbitrary set of age specific rates to estimate
an expected number of events, which is compared with the observed number to
provide a standard index for each population.
In other words when we lack the age, specific death rates of the area under study
but a count or an estimate of the total number of deaths, an estimate of crude
death rates and if the age distribution of the population are available, it is possible
to adjust the death rates by indirect method.
Applying to mortality data, the formula for indirect standardization is given as:

d
m2 = { P }∗M
Ma Pa

Where, for the ”standard” population,Ma represents age specific death rates
and
M represents the crude death rate; and for the population under study,
d represents the total number of deaths and
Pa represents the population at each age.
Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 97 / 116
 Indirect standardization

The steps in calculating the age-adjusted death rate by indirect

method are as follows:
1 Obtain the age specific death rates for the standard
2 Set down the population by age for the area under the study
3 Compute the cumulative product of the death rates in step 1 and the
population in step 2.
4 Divide the result in step 3 into the total number of deaths registered in
the study area.
5 Multiply the result in step 4 by the crude death rate of the standard
population to derive the adjusted death rates.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 98 / 116

 Indirect standardization:Example
An example is given in the following table.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 99 / 116

 Rate adjusted to a probability basis

The observed rates considered so far are measures of central rates.

Although they give a satisfactory indication of the relative frequency
of the event of death they do not describe precisely the risk of dying
for any actual cohort, i.e., they are not true probabilities.
Such probabilities express the chance that death will occur during a
particular period to a person in a particular population group alive at
the beginning of the period. Probability measures are usually
expressed in terms of rate or ratio, where the denominator represents
the initial population exposed to risk of death while the numerator
the frequency with which the event of death occurs in the particular
population over the period.
The most commonly computed probabilities of death are specific by
age and relate to a one year period.
Such probabilities are referred to as ”mortality rates” to distinguish
them from the ”death rates”, which were previously described.
Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 100 / 116
 Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)

There are several possibilities for estimating infant mortality rates

depending on the availability and quality of information on births and
deaths.
Conventionally, infant mortality rate is defined as the number of
deaths of infants under 1 year of age to the number of live births
occurring that year, times 1000.
That is:
Deathsunderage1inayear
IMR = x1000
Livebirthsduringthesameyear

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 101 / 116

 Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)

This is a good approximation of the infant mortality rate based on a

given year’s vital registration data.
In reality the infant deaths during a year could be from two calendar
years one from the births of the same year and the other from those
of the previous year.
This indicates that the denominator is not the population at risk of
the events in the numerator.
Other techniques are available to calculate adjusted infant mortality
rates, and they are not discussed here.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 102 / 116

 Neonatal Mortality Rates
Neonatal Mortality Rates: The need to calculate neonatal mortality
rates is well recognized due to the unevenness of the occurrence of
deaths in the first year of life, which necessitated making further
subdivision into various infant ages.
The three commonly used measures of neonatal mortality are
important in the follow up of various health intervention programs
mainly, mother and child health service deliveries.
The three measures are:
1
Deathsunder 1week
EarlyNeonatalMR = x1, 000
Livebirthsinyear
2
Death1 − 4weeks
LateNeonatalMR = x1000
Livebirthsinyear
’
3
Death4 − 52weeks
Post − NeonatalMR = x1000
Livebirthsinyear
’
Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 103 / 116
 Neonatal Mortality Rates

One of the incidences of death that occur before the complete

extraction .of a fetus from the mother’s womb is named as foetal
death (it is also called stillbirth).
The popularly used and highly required for statistical information for
various health intervention programs is the late foetal death rate.
According to the World Health Organization, a late foetal death
occurs after the twenty eighth week of gestation.
The formula is given as:
Latefoetaldeaths
LateFoetalDeathRate = xl, OOO
Latefoetaldeaths + Livebirths

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 104 / 116

 Perinatal Mortality Rate

In order to minimize the measurement errors that occur during

registration of births or infant death, a rate that merges stillbirth and
deaths in the first week of life, which is known as Perinatal
Mortality Rate was developed. It is calculated using the formula:

Stillbirths + Deathsunder 1week

PerinatalMR = ∗ 1000
Stillbirths + livebirths

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 105 / 116

 Life Table

A Life Table is ”a tool to analyze and present, in a convenient way,

the mortality experience of a population under consideration.
Principally, life table is used to measure levels of mortality, but it has
many applications other than demography, such as, in health and
actuarial studies.
The first life table was developed by Halley that was published in
1693.
It was constructed from statistics of deaths alone and was not
regarded as a correct life table.
Later on, in 1815 Milne has developed the first scientifically correct
life table based on population and death data classified by age.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 106 / 116

 Types of life tables
Different types of life tables could be constructed where the main
differential characteristics are categorized into three.
They are:
1 reference year of the life table,
2 the age detail and
3 number of factors considered by the life table.
Considering the first two conditions, and with regard to reference
year, two types of life tables can be constructed; they are called
current & period life table and generation life tables.
The current life table is constructed based on current mortality rates,
which refers to a short period of time, usually a year and it is the
most commonly used one.
The second type of life table, which is known as the generation life
table, is constructed based on the mortal ty rates experienced by a
particular birth cohort, e.g., all persons born at some particular time.
Generation life table follows the mortality rates of the persons born at
some particular time until all of them die.
AbdulhakimIn
N. practice constructing
(Department of Statistics) generation life table is very difficult
Demography and 107 / 116
January 27, 2018
 Types of life tables

Complete and abridged life tables

Following the second differentiating characteristic of life tables, that is
length of the age interval, two types of life tables could be identified.
When the life table is prepared for each single year of age the life table
is referred as complete or unabridged life table;
while in the case of using age intervals of 5 or 10 the life table is called
abridged life table.
The abridged life table is the most commonly used type.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 108 / 116

 Calculation of the various life table functions
The life table is composed of values of various functions for persons
of each age or age group. In constructing life tables the required basic
raw data inputs are the age specific death rates in the particular
population.
Life table comprises a set of columns that reveals the level of
mortality of the population, where most of which can be calculated
from any of the others.
Basic assumptions used in the construction of a life table are:
a. The cohort is ’closed’ against in or out migration. Hence there are
no changes in membership except the losses due to death.
b. People die at each age according to a schedule that is fixed in
advance and does not change.
c. The cohort originates from some standard number of births (always
set at around figures like 1,000, or 10,000, or 100,000) called the
’radix’ of the life table
d. At each age (excepting the first and last few years of life), deaths
are evenly distributed between one birthday and the next.
e. The cohort normally contains members of only one sex.
Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 109 / 116
 Calculation of the various life table functions

In constructing a complete life table, the first column that needs to

be calculated is qx ,
It gives the probability of dying between exact ages x and x + 1.
It is denoted as:
Deathsduringyearofpersonsagedxatstartofyear
qx =
Populationagedxatstartofyear
Note that the denominator is the number of persons alive at the
beginning of the year.
qx s cannot generally be calculated directly because the death rates
that are used in the calculation of qx values use mid year population
estimates rather than the population at the start of the year.
Hence, the first and fundamental step in life table construction is one
of converting observed age specific death rates into their
corresponding mortality rates, or probabilities of dying.
Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 110 / 116
 Calculation of the various life table functions

The conventional formula for calculating the observed age specific

death rates which is denoted by Mx is given as:
Dx
Mx =
Px

where, Dx is the number of deaths in the year of persons aged x and

Px is the population aged x, obtained considering the mid year
population.
In contrast, probabilities of dying are calculated using:
Dx
qx =
Nx

where Dx is the number of deaths in the year of persons aged x while

Nx is the population aged x at the beginning of the year.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 111 / 116

 Calculation of the various life table functions

The difference between Mx and qx lies with the denominator in that

Nx refers to the population aged x at the start of the year whereas
Px refers to the mid-year population.
As stated earlier, it is assumed that deaths are evenly distributed
throughout the year. Accordingly, out of Dx deaths during the year
half of them (0.5 ∗ Dx ) would survive up to the middle of the calendar
year for most ages.
Therefore, Nx is equal to Px plus those dying between the start and
the middle of the year. From this relationship we can drive the basic
formula for transforming observed age specific death rates into
probability measures in a complete life table as:

qx = 2Mx 2 + M

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 112 / 116

 Calculation of the various life table functions

As stated above, if we construct a relationship between Nx and Px by

assuming that deaths will occur evenly throughout the years, then:

Nx = Px + 0.5Dx

Putting Dx on both sides we get:

DX DX
=
Nx Px + 0.5Dx
DX
qx =
Px + 0.5Dx
Dividing top and bottom by Px gives:
MX
qx = −
1 + 0.5Mx

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 113 / 116

 Calculation of the various life table functions
But for the very young age groups the assumptions of evenly distribution of deaths
do not hold specifically in areas with high mortality levels.
Hence, it is believed that the infants will, on average live less than half a year
because their deaths will tend to be concentrated in the early part of the year.
This fraction of a year lived is usually denoted byax ,
Thus the general equation of the transformation of Mx into qx is given by:

Mx
qx =
1 + (1 − ax )Mx
”The values that ao a1 take vary from country to country and according to the
level of mortality.
For developing countries, where mortality is high, values of [Link] ao, [Link]
a1 and 0.5 for all the others are normally used.
Where mortality is low, 0.1 is a better figure for a0 ” (Newell, 1988:69).
The values for ax will not be calculated from other life table columns but is either
calculated from raw data, or, more frequently, they are assumed.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 114 / 116

 Calculation of life table functions in abridged life table

The way an abridged life table constructed is very similar to that for
complete life table, but instead of calculating qx one calculates nq x ,
where n is the length of the interval.
The equation is presented as:
nn Mx
nq x =
1 + n(1 − nax )nM x

nax is taken to be the proportion of the interval lived by those who

die.
Thus, for most age groups a value of 0.5 is adequate, but for the very
young it is necessary to use other values.
The convention is to assume ao is 0.1 in low mortality countries and
0.3 in high mortality countries, while 0.4 is used for all 4a1 s.

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 115 / 116

 Chapter-4
Fertility

Objectives of Chapter-4

Distinguish among different terms used to describe Fertility in the

populations.
Identify different sources of data to calculate different indicators of
Fertility
Calculate and interpret different crude indicators of Fertility.
List and calculate the different measures of Fertility

Abdulhakim N. (Department of Statistics) Demography January 27, 2018 116 / 116