10.

09
Beginning in the notebook*

 Salinization
-more droughts, more extraction
 Plastics
 PFAS
 Nutrients dumping

WFD-organization

In-water ecosystems are threatened by

 temp
90% of heat caused by global warming is absorbed by the ocean
 Chemistry
Ocean acidification, algal blooms, eutrophication
 Salinity
Loss of migration of habitat, impairs photosynthesis of phytoplankton
 Ships traffic noise
Vessel strikes, oil spills, chronic low ship noise
 Ocean waste and cruise ships
 Reduced mobility
Locks dams, prevent fish migration, gas bubbles
 Visdeurbel

12.09 Complex systems and resilience

Key Concepts
-System structure
-adaptation
-diversity
-self-organization
-path dependence
-positive and negative feedback

Complex system- ecosystem, food system etc

They consist of different components that interact
Interactions create structure of the system + they are difficult/impossible to predict non-deterministic

Reductionism-v-Complexity
Reductionism
Chemistry, genetics and physics and other is based of this reductionism
However it has limits
So the linkage is important between different components

Sustainability challenges are typified complex interdependencies.

Changes in one impact the others. Happens across regions, sectors, scales
System change is rarely linear

Complex systems
  Structure
Who interacts with whom? Represented using network

6 3th or separation, you are connected to people through 6 social steps

 Small World structure

 Scale free structure
Scale-free network, scale free distribution –typified by the occurrence of hub nodes with bigger
influence in the network. These hubs nodes emerge through preferential attachment dynamics (rich get
richer)
 Hierarchal structures: governance structures, social hierarchy and power

3 revolutions in human social structures

-social network: word to mouth
-broadcast network: printing press to television
-scale free network: internet

Diversity and adaptation

 In living systems, organisms adapt to their environment : bacteria adapt to antibiotics, people
adapt to changing norms
 These adaptations bring about change in the system
 Diversity key to facilitating adaptation
 Diversity also makes systems more robust to shocks

Self-Organization
 Emerging phenomenon or self-organization, like in birds(starlings)
 Segregation on society ( human level)
 Shelling model of segregation
 System loek in

Path dependence
 loek-in social ecological systems
 socio-environmental systems (irrigation technology, water usage and purification technologies)

Sustainable Development History, paradigms and concepts

-Definition of SD
-Fundamental principles
-Timeline-Milestone

Framing of environmental problems and solutions

“The framing of problems define solutions”

Dominant paradigm today: economic growth/ green economy

GE/GG is premised upon DECOUPLING GE-green economy GG-green growth

-continuing economic growth without dependence on natural resources use and environmental
degradation.
-green jobs to alleviate poverty

Environmental Kuznets Curve

What is Nature? How do we understand it or perceive it?
Complex interaction of abiotic and biotic factors of our world. Not man made.

Nature and History

“Half-earth project”

Sustainable development
Models
 3 pillars/ 3-logged model
Sustainability- environment, society, economy
 Nested model or embedded model, strong sustainability (ecological economics)
Weak sustainability, (environmental economics)

Fundamental Sustainability principles

 Normative principles –SD implies normative and societal choices
SD is a social construct
 Equity principles-(fairness) –the next generation gets the same as the previous one. Procedural
equity, inter species equity.
 integration principle
 dynamism principle

Brundland report actually provides a second definition

SD contains 2 key concepts
-concept of needs
-idea of limits

Precise definition of SD depends on the perspective taken

-definition shows divergence in emphasis on eg nature etc
-emphasis is defined by who defines it, what they value, what their aim is
-elements of tension
Individuals vs community
Social consent vs policy makers

How are economic gains distributed?

How are the social and environmental costs distributed?
Whose values right are recognized?
Who participates? Who is included/excluded?

History of sustainable development from different perspectives:

-environmental sciences
-social/activist movements
-development economics
-

Rachel Carson “Silent spring” 1962

Robert Malthus
Paul Ehrlich
Polluter pays principle
Club of Rome “Limits to growth” model
Earth Summit 1992
200th growing concern to climate change
MDGs
Controversies SDGs

17.09 Climate Change

Key things
-Greenhouse effect and how it works
-positive and negative feedback loops
-current state of climate system

Difference between weather and climate

Weather-day to day state of the atmosphere in certain location
Climate depends on the atmosphere

Basic physics of radiation

Short wave coming from the sun, high in energy, because of this, it can reflect from the surface of the earth
into long wave that is less energy efficient.
The higher in the atmosphere you are the less energy can be absorbed

Radiation balance
80% of the excess radiation is used to evaporate water
Water vapour condences and forms clouds

Albedo –the amount of incoming solar radiation that is reflected by the surface of the earth back into the
atmosphere.

Absorption of longwave radiation

-Water vapor- transpiration
-CO2- fossil fuels deforestation
-CH$ agriculture, wetlands
-N2O agriculture.

Anthropogenic greenhouse effect

Positive and negative feedback loops

Negative feedback-stabilizing, increase in one thing causes decrease in the next component
Positive feedback- increase in one component causes increase in the next component

Milankovitch cycle

Anthropogenic perturbation
Land use change (deforestation, etc)

Source>sink imbalance

IPCC report
Key elements of agreements that aim to reduce climate change
-global temp bellow 2
-limit the amount of greenhouse gasses emitted by human activity.
-increase the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience.
-review countries contribution to cutting emissions every 5 years
-Rich countries should help poor ones and invest in more green energy
The Diversity of Life
-formation
-facets and measurements
-distribution
-knowledge
-loss
-threats
-conservation and restoration

Biodiversity
-genetics
-species
-functional
-habitat

Positive aspects of species extinction

-new space for speciation
-relaxed competition/natural selection

Global living planet index

Causes of biodiversity loss Direct/Indirect drivers

Drivers:
 Over-exploitation
 Climate change
 Pollution
 Interactions

Nature connectedness-biodiversity conservations

-Habitat creation, restoration, conservation
-Or the ocean surrounding the islands
-Restoring interactions

19.09 Tragedy of the commons

Tragedy of the commons-when individuals in their own interest overconsume, deplete resources,
leaving none to the others, or just not thinking abour the others

Why important:
Societal relevance:
-fail to collaborate
-disagreements
-complexity of minds and methods of exploration and developing knowledge.

Scientific relevance
-advancments in science

Outline
-a tragedy of the commons
-governing of the commons
-resilient with the commons
-bricolage in the commons
 -caring for the commons

Tragedy of the commons

-no coordination, tragedy will happen
Food basket –shared resources that people extract from.
Solution: Private property (the market) as a solution, private owners bear the direct costs of their own
overuse.
Cesspool-shared resources that degrade through pollution, air, water, soil
This can not be privatized
Solution: regulations

Natural resources can not be managed sustainably as commons, result in tragedy of the commons.
They should be subject to market or State based regimes

Governing the commons

Elinor Ostrom (political scientist)

Rivarlous or non-rivarlosu, excludable or non-excludable.

Ravorlous- when you use it, it prevents others from using
Non-rivarlous- when I use it, it doesn’t prevent others from using it

Design principles
Boundaries, local fit, participation, monitoring, sanctions, conflict resolution, autonomy, nested systems
Concl. Natural resources can be managed sustainably as commons. Stakeholder`s autonomy and
participation in the rule-making a enforcement is key.

Resilient with the commons

Felika, Ostrom, Helik

SES framework
Concl: Caution against simplistic, one-size-fits-all solutions (panaceasc) to complex governance
challenges

Bricolage in the commons

Frances Cleaver
Emerge through negotiation, adaptation and practical problem-solving
-Governing the commons requires resisting the imposition of externally designed models of
institutional design
-acknowledge messiness in institutional arrangments

Commoning-

Care, Affect, conviviality

-commoning as social and ethical practice
-care
Affect
-conviviality, cooperative coexistence, fostering joy, inclusivness, creativity over control or hierarchy

Caring for the commons

-from resources to relationship
-ethics and care
Doing the commons

Feeling Responsible
 Ecoside –unlawful or wanton act committed with knowledge that there is a substantial likelihood of
severe and either widespread or long-term damage to the environment being caused by those acts.

Mens rea “mental elements requirments for criminal accountability

-intent
-recklessness or
-negligence

Ethos -credibility of the message sender

Logos -logic of the arguments, evidence
Pathos -involvement of the reader

Taxonomy of Responsibility

Based on conceptualization in law and philosophy

Responsibility capacity
-Prefrontal cortex (fully developed 20-29) executive human brain functions
Situational incapacitation
-intoxicated
-extreme sleep deprivation
-stress

Scarcity theory
Scarcity theory-when you experience scarcity in resources, this preoccupies your executive functions

Responsibility capacity and relation to sovereignty

State sovereignty=
-the ultimate authority
-independence
-exclusive jurisdiction
-autonomously interpret and act on its interests in the global arena.

Ways to avoid tragedy of the commons

-creating and selling property rights to scares resources

Casual responsibility
Action -> effect
Belief that one ca be responsible for an outcome
Attribution bias- tendency to attribute
We are wired to see causality
Mental steps and lack of feedback obstruct seeing casual responsibility

Role responsibility duty

If you fail to meet your role responsibility there will be consequences

Moral Responsibility
Tied to reflective emotions: guilt and pride

Norm activation theory-meant to explain behaviors in which moral considerations are relevant

Being Responsible
Having a history of responsible/unresponsible behavior
Responsibility to restore disbalance

24.09 Circular Economy Transitions

Content:
Why circular economy?
What is it?
Transition to circular?
Are we transitioning?
Transitions for who?

Linear economy- take (resource extraction) , make(manufacturing goods and services), dispose(land-filling,
insineration, reused, recycle)

Take-
-global resource use, massive increase due to urbanization, economic growth.
Unfair distribution of these resource usage.
-Environmental degradation, mining, deforestation, gas emission, pollution
Social cost- health and working conditions of mining, slavery, child labour, economic exploitation.

Make-
Industrial usage, and pollutions that it causes due to manufacturing processes, injustice in distribution of
these manufacturing.
Social-child labor, bad working conditions

Dispose-
2.1 bill tons of trash produced every year
-37% landfill
-31 % openly dumped
-19% recycled
Huge quantities of waste, which is toxic, dangerous, hazardous, plastic in the ocean, threat to biodiversity

What is circular economy?

“Solution to linear economy”
Many definitions-umbrella concept

Recycling economy –recycle, reuse

Circular economy- more mechanism for recycling and managing waste, reduce reuse, recycle

R Strategies
Resource strategies
Narrowing loops
-Efficiencies in the design of a product
Closing loops
-recycling material post-consumption
Slowing loops
-extend product life
Regenerative loops
-returning nutrients to nature

Circular Ecosystem
Circularity seeks to learn from the regenerative cycles of nature to adapt industrial, energy and human
systems
Circular economy is closely related to the disciplines of industrial ecology and ecological economics

"A circular economy is a regenerative system in which resource input and waste, emission, and energy
leakage are minimized by slowing, closing, and narrowing material and energy loops. This can be achieved
through long-lasting design, maintenance, repair, reuse, remanufacturing, refurbishing, and recycling.“

Circularity across levels

-micro-change happens within a single organization, product innovation, new business models, households
-meso- change happens due to symbiotic association among system actors s in geographic proximity for
sharing resources. Eco-industrial parks, public transport system, circular communities.
-macro –change happens in whole industries, regions, or nations. National circular policies, global waste
trade
Transitions
What are transitions?
Radical system change, based on one or more surprising paradigm shifts, brand new ways of thinking

What are sustainability transitions?

Transitions “S-curve”

Transition as progress (for whom?)

The myth of progress
Post-enlightenment theory of history
-Agricultural revolution
-Renaissance
-Age of reason
-Industrial Revolution
-Future

Greco-Roman Theory of History

-Golden
-Silver-Bronze
-Heroic
-Iron
-Golden? Again

Transitions of the past –who benefits?

Agricultural revolution-people.
Age or reason, John Lock, societies.
Industrial Revolution- massive child labor, massive input of material and market, mechanized warfare.
Great Acceleration- pollution, mass-extinction effect.
Transitions are not neutral, most of these transitions were not beneficial at the moment.

Are we transitioning?
The “circularity divide”

The transition that needs to happen, is linear to circular.

Necessity driven circularity

Food and Agriculture

Content
1. Historical context
2. The Green Revolution
3. Challenges
-Malnutrition and food insecurity
-Socio-economic disparities
- Environmental degradation
4. Solutions

Historical context
 -11000 BCE- development of agriculture in multiple locations around the world
 -6000 BCE- most farm animals we know today had been domesticated and irrigation systems were
developed
 -3000 BCE – the plow was invented

The Malthusian trap

The population growth will reach a point which will lead to wars, famine., due to lack of resources

How to produce sufficient food for the growing population

-expansion
-Intensification
Which is better?

Intensification: closing the yield gap

Yield gap- difference between potential and actual yield
Biophysical limitations
Socio-economic factors

How did they try to close the yield gap?

 -irrigation tecnh
 -far mechanization
 -chemical input
 -High yield seed variety

The green Revolution

Green-evolution about plants, but was it green in term of sustainability? Nope

Hybrid Breeding

The succes of the green revolution

Challenges
3.1 Malnutrition and food security
-Food production does not equal food security
Food security requires sufficient:
Availability, access, utilization, stability
-Reduced food self-sufficiency in multiple countries

Complexity of problems, including

-colonialism
-post-independent governments
3.2 Socio-economic disparities
3.3 Environmental impacts of agriculture
 -GHG emissions
 -Land-use
 -chemical pollutants
 -biodiversity loss
  -water consumption

Focus was on economic efficiency, not ecological efficiency

Negative aspects of food production

Greenhouse Gas emissions

-CH4
-N20
-Co2

Climate Change

Land-use: habitat loss and degradation

Land speculation-buying land that is dead in hopes that its value will become higher and it could be sold for
a higher price.

Effects of converting and to agriculture

 -global warming
 -changes in weather patterns
 -habitat loss

 -Biodiversity loss
 -Chemical pollutants
 -fertilizers
 -water usage

Solutions
 -technological
 -Nature-inclusive
 -dietary shifts

Technological: vertical farming, GMOs,

Nature inclusive solutions, permaculture and Agroecology
Dietary shift

26.09 The Energy Transition

-Energy transition-climate change
-Technical challenges:
-lock in economic challenges
-Governance challenges

Topics of today
 overview and drivers of the energy demand
 climate change and fossil fuels
 renewable and related challenges and limits
 where are we heading
 concluding

What drives energy consumption?

 population growth
 economic growth,, GDP, increasing GDP leads to more demand of energy and goods production
 life expectation- people live longer, consume more etc
  future cooling demand, for energy cars
 increase in wealth
 dietary changes

Demand for primary is growing- primary fossil fuels, oil.

Energy consumption
 sustainability challenges
Global primary energy demand has been largely mat with increase (or stable) fossil fuel consumption
Associated challenges:
-GHG emissions and climate change
-Environmental impact (air, water quality, biodiversity, mining)
-energy security, accessibility

CO2 emissions by source

-not only from human activities, permafrost, also deforestation (not energy production activity)
How do we get to decreased CO2 emissions?
Afforestation, carbon capture and storage, change in preferencies in consumption, be more efficient
less energy demand buildings) , transition to electric vehicles, switch to renewable sources of energy,
etc.
Different in global ad small scale level

Coal
Coal Mining
• Coal production has increased by more than 70% since 1970, now stable
• 9 out of every 10 tonnes of coal mined today is used to generate electricity
• Use of coal is not limited to electricity generation:
▪ Make chemicals, cement,paper, metal products
▪ Methanol, ethylen

Environmental issues- GHG intensive fuel, seam fires cause loss of coal, mercury and Sulphur emissions.

Natural Gas
• The first gas fields: just drill and the gas moved upward
• Most remaining fields require pumping by horsehead pumps
• Most accessible reserves have been depleted
• Gas is accessed by sophisticated techniques such as fracturing (fracking, which pumps high-pressure
salt water into rocks to crack them

Oil
Exploratory drilling = small, deep holes to
• Oil is under pressure and often rises to the surface
• Primary extraction = the initial drilling and pumping of available oil
• Secondary extraction = solvents, water, CO2 or steam is used to remove additional oil; expensive
• We lack the technology to remove every bit of oil
• As prices rise, it becomes economical to reopen a well

In short-term amount of resources is not the problem, the emission it causes is the problem
Issues with coal and gas
 Natural gas/ fracking: water consumption, intermediate and long-term waste water
disposal/storage, methane leakage (potent GHG)
• Oil: tar sands: open pit mining, high energy use / CO2 emissions
• Oil offshore: risk of accidents & huge oil spills
• Transport by pipeline or oil tanker: risk of spills

Renewables why?
  We have more sun energy than the total we extract
 Renewables are available to all
 A technology revolution in energy

Ecological Economics and Measuring Well-being

Focus
-Environmental/ ecological economics approaches to sustainability
-The notion and measurement of well-being

A Full-world-representation of economy and society within

The economic system

Neoclassical economics

Environmental economics
Natural resources-> production-> consumption-> utility
/
Waste

The economic system economy -- environment

The economic system

Environmental economics conceptualization is better than the linear abstract on
But
 no well-being only utility( having)
 Environment and economy somewhat separated
 What about institutions, norms?
 Doesn’t well-being feedback on other elements
 Who are the actors here

The world is full of:

 Sociological relations
 Meaning( not ony utility
 Sociological feedback and connections
 Meaning
 People
 Norms, institutions
  Embeddedness
 Limits

Principles (selection) for action

-responsibility
-precaution
-adaptive management
-full cost allocation

If the world is full, how do we measure what counts

Sustainability/well-being indicators
GDP
Gross-> depreciation of the value of capital is not been deducted from the value of GDP
Domestic-> only activities within a domestic economy regardless of ownership
Product-> refers to what is being produced, good, services

Limits of GDP as an economic measure

-informal economy
-volunteer and family work
-leisure
-human capital
-justice

Limits of GDP as a measure of welfare. What GDP accounts for

-Natural resource depletion and pollution
-health costs
-crime
-social breakdown

Alternative to GDP
1) Adjusting GDP
2) Replacing GDP
3) Supplementing GDP

1.10 Sustainable Development Goals

Post 2 WW-United nations founded October 1945

First UN development decade 1960-1970 profit+people
The Brundtland Report- 1987
The new earth summit-
The SDGs 2023 agenda

Millenium Development goals MDGs

Strengths:
-global attention and awareness
-mobilization of resources
-measure targets
-some progress
Weaknesses
-to narrow in scope (focus on aid from north so south)
-Top-down approach: donor-> recipient ( top-down/vertical same )
-process lacked legitimacy (not inclusive, not representative, not accountable)
-limited universally
-lack of attention to inequalities, between poor/rich, urban/rural,

Agenda 2030 for SDG

Focus on SD
-Beyond the MDGs
-more attention to nature-society relationships
-integrating the 3 dimensions: society, economy, environment (PPP)

Focus on more inclusive process

-SDGs were negotiates differently
-Long participatory progress (2012-2015) government from all regions, NGOs, companies
-Mould-breaking Open world group

The 5 Ps of the SDGs

-people
-profit
-planet

-partnership (global partnership, trade)

-peace
-> preconditions

Key features: SDGs

-voluntary commitment
-no authorative enforcer (member state their choice,)
-collective responsibility
-negotiations, formulation SDGs and indicators
-focus on inclusiveness
-universal
-holistic approach

High ambition:
-SDGs are multidimensional
-Leaving no-one behind
-Balance economic-socio progress and environmental protection
-global, national and local collaboration
-to inform process and progress

Common criticism of SDGs

-too vague, underfunded, not urgent enough
-non-binding: accountability from the government remain weak-> SDGs often do not transale into strategic
public policy processes incl. long-term budgets and investments
-they are often looked at in isolation
-they perpetuate global inequality
SDGs Cake
Biosphere as a foundation, non-negotiable, it is the key to success
Life before water- important for food on other same with land, food security relies on land.
We need clean water to cook food, and drink important

They perpetuate global inequality

-North-South divide remains: SDGs broke donor-recipient nature of the MDGs but poorer countries remain
reliant on external (conditional) financing
-Power imbalance remain: while SDGs were negotiated at the UN, but high-income countries, global
institutions and large corporations had larger influence than indigenous people, and grassroots
organizations → questions whether solutions match local realitie.
-Neglect of structural issues: SDGs focus on measurable targets but largely avoid deep structural issues such
as global trade rules, colonial legacies etc.
-Unequal data and monitoring capacity: data invisibility maybe marginalize overlooked populations even
further

Captured Futures: Introduction to Futuring (last lecture)

Section 1: Futuring
So futures are political
• Material effects
• Benefits and penalties
• Opportunities opened & closed

• Ideological effects
• Wishes & desires
• Who is considered “the other”
• (Mangnus et al., 2021; Jasanoff & Kim, 2009)

• Futures are co-constitutive of social order

• (they inform and reinforce each other)
• (Jasanoff & Kim, 2009; Joly, 2010; Mangnus et
al., 2021)
Techniques of futuring
Forecasts, scenarios, predictions of:
-will look like
-Might look like
-Could look like
-Should look like

Backcasts of:
-how we got there somehow
-Why the present was absurd

Strategic discussions of:

 How to respond/prepare for developments-how to respond?

Section 2: Futuring in Sustainable Development

[Link]
Target Gaps of climate Politics
-Countries promise too little

[Link]
Moreover, the environment is more than climate change, we are facing triple crisis.

[Link]
Justice concerns are organized out
Inventions of critical minerals discourse

[Link]
We keep ‘mopping with the tap running’:
No place to address aspirational futures & cultural dreams in environmental politics as we know it

Core assumptions about the future:

▪ Economic growth: in these models, the economy will keep growing
▪ Cost efficiency: ‘climate mitigation must be cost-efficient’ – so mitigation must happens where and how it
is the cheapest (according to the models)
▪ Discount rate: ‘the present is worth more than the future: reducing emissions now is more costly than
later’
▪ Linear technological development: technology will progress, getting cheaper and more efficient in the
future

Section 3 Alternative Futuring: Breaking the Capture?

Our ways out:
Past, Present and Future
Narrate how the emergence of the modern-industrial society is our past, which we problematize in the
present, and which will be succeeded by new possible futures

Futuring is power:
Power is not just about forcing people to act a certain way. Power is also the capacity to shape people’s
preferences and dreams.

Section 4 The Politics of Futuring: Who controls the future?

Exam question period
Be there 15 minutes early
Same level practice exam

Fossils are non renewable, but yet won’t run out- contradiction
 The reason for tranition is not that they will run out, it is just that we have to switch to less
damaged one
DPSIR
Strong line-connection dotted line –response to the factors of DPSIR (driver, state etc)

Ball-in-cup theory System thinking and resilience

About resilience of systems or species
Can be in a as steady state, when there is a perturbation, it shows how it moves into a new steady
state.

Dimensions of SD time and space

With drivers, if we have to grow the economy, you need space, to do this on a global level, bc
changes in the economy have to have a global impact
Space-global or local impact
Time-how long will it affect, for generations or not, short-term or long-term

Picture for the food lecture

Time and increase of food insecurity along with space availability- graph
Shift of food production, what happened in history during that period

Why is Ecological footprint replacing GDP

GDP has negative activated, doesn’t correctly measure impact, GDP more economically driven, eco
footprint is more environmentaly driven.
We are not stopping measuring GDP, eco footprint is a new way proposed to measure
development

Which role reponcilibilty can’t be taken by a person with a high socio-economic status---climate
activist.

Global warming refers to RELATIVE contribution of GHG to temp increase