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154 CBSE Term II Mathematics XII

CHAPTER 06

Probability
In this Chapter...
l Event
l Conditional Probability
l Multiplication Theorem on Probability
l Independent Events
l Theorem of Total Probability and Baye’s Theorem
l Random Variable and Its Probability Distribution

(iii) Compound Event If an event has more than one sample

Event point, then it is called a compound event.
A subset of the sample space associated with a random e.g. In the experiment of tossing a coin twice, the events
experiment is called an event. E = exactly one head appeared
e.g. On tossing a coin, we have sample space S = {H, T} and F = atleast one head appeared are compound events.
The event of getting a head is given by E = {H}. The subsets of S associated with these events are
Clearly, E Í S, so E = {H} is an event. E = {HT, TH} and F = {HT, TH, HH }.
(iv) Equally Likely Events The given events are said to be
Types of Events equally likely, if none of them is expected to occur in
(i) Impossible and Sure Events The empty set fand the preference to the other.
sample space S describe events (as S and fare also subset e.g. In throwing an unbiased die, all the six faces are
of S ). The empty set fis called an impossible event and equally likely to come.
whole sample space S is called the sure event. (v) Mutually Exclusive Events Two or more events are said
to be mutually exclusive, if the happening of one
e.g. When we throw, a die, then the event of getting a
excludes the happening of the other i.e. if no two of
number greater than 6 is a impossible event and the
them can occur together. If A and B are mutually
event of getting a number less than 7 is a sure event.
exclusive events, then ( A Ç B ) = f.
(ii) Simple Event If an event has only one sample point of a
sample space, then it is called a simple or elementary e.g. In throwing a die, all the 6 faces numbered 1 to 6 are
event. mutually exclusive, if anyone of these faces comes, the
possibility of others in the same trial is ruled out.
e.g. Let a die is thrown, then sample space
(vi) Exhaustive Events A set of events are said to be
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5 , 6 }
exhaustive, if one of them necessarily occurs whenever
Again, let A = event of getting 3 = { 3 } the experiment is performed.
Here, A is a simple event.
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CBSE Term II Mathematics XII 155

Let E1 , E 2 , ... , E n be subsets of sample space S. (ii) For three events A, B and C,
Then, events E1 , E 2 ,..., E n are exhaustive events, P ( A È B È C ) = P( A) + P( B) + P(C )
if E1 È E 2 È¼È E n = S. - P ( A Ç B) - P ( B Ç C )
e.g. In the experiment of throwing a die, - P ( A Ç C) + P ( A Ç B Ç C)
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5 , 6} If A, B and C are mutually exclusive events, then
Let E1 = event of getting an even number P ( A È B È C ) = P( A) + P( B) + P(C )
= {2, 4, 6} [for mutually exclusive events,
and E 2 = event of getting an odd number P ( A Ç B) = P ( B Ç C )
= P (C Ç A) = P( A Ç B Ç C ) = 0]
= {1, 3, 5 }
2. If A and B are two events associated with a random
Here, E1 È E 2 = S. So, E1 and E 2 are exhaustive events.
experiment, then
(vii) Complement of an Event Let A be an event in a sample
(i) P( A Ç B) = P ( B) - P ( A Ç B)
space S, then complement of A is the set of all sample
points, which are not in A and it is denoted by (ii) P( A Ç B ) = P ( A) - P ( A Ç B)
A¢ or A. (iii) P[( A Ç B ) È ( A Ç B)] = P ( A) + P ( B) - 2P ( A Ç B)
i.e. A¢ = {n : n Î S, n Ï A} (iv) P( A Ç B ) = 1 - P ( A È B)
e.g. In the random experiment of throwing a die, the (v) P( A È B ) = 1 - P ( A Ç B)
sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5 , 6 } and if we define the (vi) P( A) = P ( A Ç B) + P ( A Ç B )
event E as getting multiple of 3, then complement of E, (vii) P( B) = P ( A Ç B) + P ( B Ç A )
i.e. E = { 1, 2, 4, 5 }.
(viii) P(exactly one of A, B occurs) = P ( A) + P( B) - 2P ( A Ç B)
Probability of an Event = P ( A È B) - P ( A Ç B)
If there are n elementary equally likely events associated with 3. If A, B and C are three events, then
a random experiment and m of them are favourable to an P(exactly one of A, B, C occurs)
event A, then the probability of happening or occurrence of A = P( A) + P( B) + P(C ) - 2P ( A Ç B) - 2P ( B Ç C )
is denoted by P( A) and defined as
- 2P ( A Ç C ) + 3P ( A Ç B Ç C )
éNumber of elementary events ù 4. P ( A ) = 1 - P ( A)
êfavourable to event A ú
P( A) =
m
=ë û
Conditional Probability
n éTotal number of elementary ù
êevents to the experiment ú If A and B are two events associated with the same sample
ë û space of a random experiment, then conditional probability of
Note the event A given that B has occurred,
(i) 0 £ P( A) £ 1 i.e. P( A/ B) is given by
(ii) Probability of impossible event is zero.
æ A ö P( A Ç B)
(iii) Probability of sure event is 1. Pç ÷ = , provided P( B) ¹ 0
(iv) P ( A È A ¢) = 1 è Bø P( B)
(v) P ( A Ç A ¢) = 0 Probability of occurrence of event B, when A has already
(vi) P ( A ¢) ¢ = P ( A) occurred i.e. P (B /A) is given by
(vii) Sometimes, we have to select r objects from n distinct objects,
æ B ö P( B Ç A)
then we use the formula, nC r =
n!
, 0 £ r £ n. Pç ÷ = , provided P( A) ¹ 0
r !(n – r)! è Aø P( A)

Important Results on Probability Properties of Conditional Probability

1. Addition Theorem of Probability Let A and B be the events of a sample space S of an
(i) For two events A and B, experiment, then
P ( A È B) = P( A) + P( B) - P ( A Ç B) (i) P (S / A) = P ( A / A) = 1
If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then (ii) If A and B are any two events of a sample space Sand C is
P ( A È B) = P( A) + P( B) an event of S, such that P(C ) ¹ 0, then
[for mutually exclusive events, P ( A Ç B) = 0 ] P{( A È B)/ C} =P ( A/C ) + P ( B/C ) -P {( A Ç B)/ C}
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156 CBSE Term II Mathematics XII

In particular, if A and B are disjoint events, then probability of the simultaneous occurrence of the events E
æ AÈBö æ Aö æ B ö and F is the product of P( E ) and P( F) calculated separately
Pç ÷ = Pç ÷ + Pç ÷ on the basis of two experiments.
è C ø èC ø èC ø
i.e. P( E Ç F) = P( E ) × P( F)
(iii) P ( A¢ / B) = 1 - P ( A/ B), where A¢ is complement of A.
Note If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P( A / B) = 0.
3. Difference between independent events and mutually
exclusive events
Multiplication Theorem on Probability (i) Term independent is defined in terms of probability
of events whereas mutually exclusive is defined in
Let A and B be two events associated with a random
terms of subset of sample space.
experiment, then
(ii) Mutually exclusive events never have an outcome
ì P ( A) × P ( B/ A), where P( A) ¹ 0 common, but independent events may have common
P ( A Ç B) = í
î P ( B) × P ( A/ B), where P( B) ¹ 0 outcome. In other words, two independent events
Here, A Ç B denotes the simultaneous occurrence of the having non-zero probabilities of occurrence cannot
events A and B. The event A Ç B is also written as AB. be mutually exclusive and conversely i. e. two
mutually exclusive events having non-zero
The above result is known as the multiplication rule of probabilities of occurrence cannot be independent.
probability.
4. Three events A, B and C are said to be mutually
Multiplication Rule for More than Two Events independent, if
Let E, F, G and H be four events of sample space S. Then, P( A Ç B) = P( A) × P( B)
æ F ö æ G ö÷ P( A Ç C ) = P( A) × P(C )
(i) P ( E Ç F Ç G) = P ( E ) × P ç ÷ × P çç ÷
è Eø è E Ç Fø P( B Ç C ) = P( B) × P(C )
and P( A Ç B Ç C ) = P( A) × P( B) × P(C )
(ii) P ( E Ç F Ç G Ç H)
If atleast one of the above is not true for three given
æ Fö æ G ö æ H ö
= P ( E ) × P ç ÷ × P çç ÷÷ × P çç ÷÷ events, then events are not independent.
è E ø è E Ç Fø è E Ç FÇGø i.e. dependent.

Independent Events Properties of Independent Events

Two events A and B are said to be independent, if the If A and B are independent events, then
occurrence or non-occurrence of one event does not affect (i) A and B¢ are also independent events.
the occurrence or non-occurrence of another event. Two (ii) A¢ and B are also independent events.
events E and F are said to be independent, if
(iii) A¢ and B¢ are also independent events.
æ Fö
Pç ÷ = P( F), provided P( E ) ¹ 0 Theorem of Total Probability
èEø
Let {E1 , E 2 , ..., E n } be a partition of the sample space S and
æEö suppose that each of the events E1 , E 2 , ..., E n has non-zero
and Pç ÷ = P( E ), provided P( F) ¹ 0 probability of occurrence.
è Fø
S
In other words, let E and F be two events associated with the E1 En
same random experiment, then E and F are said to be
A
independent, if P( E Ç F) = P( E ) × P( F).

Some Important Results E2 E3 ...

1. Two events E and F are said to be dependent, if Let A be any event associated with S, then
they are not independent.
P ( A) = P ( E1 ) × P (A/E1 ) + P ( E 2 ) × P ( A/E 2 )
i. e. P( E Ç F) ¹ P( E ) × P( F)
2. Two experiments are said to be independent, if for every + ... + P ( E n ) × P ( A/E n )
n
pair of events E and F, where E is associated with the first = å P ( E j ) × P ( A/E j )
experiment and F with the second experiment, the j=1
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CBSE Term II Mathematics XII 157

Baye’s Theorem Baye’s theorem is also called the formula for the probability
of causes.
If E1 , E 2 , ¼, E n are n non-empty events, which constitute a
partition of sample space S, i.e. Random Variable
E1 , E 2 , ¼, E n are pairwise disjoint,
A random variable is a real valued function, whose domain is
E1 È E 2 È¼È E n = S and P( E i ) > 0, " i = 1, 2, 3, K, n. Also, let the sample space of a random experiment.
A be any event of non-zero probability, then Generally, it is denoted by capital letter X. Also, more than
one random variables can be defined on the same sample
P ( E i ) × P ( A/ E i ) space.
P ( E i / A) = n
, for any i = 1, 2, 3, ... , n
Probability Distribution of a
å P ( E j ) × P ( A/ E j ) Random Variable
j=1
The system in which the values of a random variable are
Or given along with their corresponding probability, is called
Let E1 , E 2 , E 3 , ¼, E n be n mutually exclusive and exhaustive probability distribution.
events associated with a random experiment. If X is a random variable and takes the values of
If A is an event, which occurs together with E i ’s. Then,
x1 , x 2 , x 3 , ..., x n with respective probabilities
P ( E i ) × P ( A/ E i ) p1 , p 2 , p3 , ¼, p n .
P ( E i / A) = n Then, the probability distribution of X is represented by
å P ( E j ) × P ( A/ E j )
j=1 x1 x2 x3 … xn
X
Here, events E1 , E 2 , ..., E n are called hypothesis. The P (X) p1 p2 p3 … pn
probability P( E i ) is called the priori probability of the
n
hypothesis E i and the conditional probability P( E i / A) is where, p i > 0 and å p i = 1; i = 1, 2, 3, ..., n
called a posteriori probability of the hypothesis E i . i =1