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Statistical Hypothesis Testing Solutions

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
31 views4 pages

Statistical Hypothesis Testing Solutions

NTU

Uploaded by

Alex Heterous
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Homework 4 Solutions

Q1. A manufacturer of chocolate candies uses machines to package candies as they move
along a filling line. Although the packages are labeled as 8 ounces, the company wants the
packages to contain a mean of 8.17 ounces so that virtually none of the packages contain less
than 8 ounces. A sample of 50 packages is selected periodically, and the packaging process is
stopped if there is evidence that the mean amount packaged is different from 8.17 ounces.
Suppose that in a particular sample of 50 packages, the mean amount dispensed is 8.159
ounces, with a sample standard deviation of 0.051 ounce.

(a) Is there evidence that the population mean amount is different from 8.17 ounces? (Use
a 0.05 level of significance.)

(b) Determine the p-value and interpret its meaning.

Solution:

(a) Forming of hypothesis,

Null hypothesis: H 0 : µ = 8.17

Alternative hypothesis: H1 : µ ≠ 8.17

n = 50
α = 5%

Using t table, the critical values are: ±2.0096

= =
X 8.159, S 0.051

X −µ 8.159 − 8.17
tSTAT = = = −1.5251
S n 0.051 50

As the −2.0096 < tSTAT < 2.0096 , there is no sufficient evidence to reject the null
hypothesis, i.e. there is no evidence to conclude that the population mean is different
from 8.17 ounces.

(b) Based on the t statistics derived in part (a), the p value would be:

=p t.=
dist.2T (1.5251) 0.1337

The above calculation is based on Excel function [Link].2T. (note: in the quiz/exam,
you are not required to use Excel for calculation)
In case the t distribution value is hard to obtain analytically or through a table, we
could use the z distribution to approximate the p value given the sample size (50) is
significantly large.

2φ (−1.5251) =
p= 2 × 0.0636 =
0.1272

As 𝑝𝑝 > 𝛼𝛼, do not reject null hypothesis. The p value indicates there is a 12.72%
probability of getting a test statistic equal to or more extreme than the sample result,
on the condition that the null hypothesis is true. As the required confidence is 95%,
there is no sufficient confidence to reject the null hypothesis.

Q2. The time to repair an electronic instrument is a normally distributed random variable
measured in hours. The repair time for 16 such instruments chosen at random are shown
below:

159 277 132 212 224 379 199 264

222 365 182 250 174 260 483 210

The mean and standard deviation of the sample data have been calculated to be 249.50
and 91.25, respectively. With the information provided, answer the following questions.

(a) Set up a hypothesis to investigate if the mean repair time exceeds 205 hours, and test
your hypothesis using the critical-value approach, assuming 5% level of significance.

(b) Find the p value of the statistical test that you conduct in part (a). What will be your
conclusion for the test if the level of significance is revised to 2.5%? Note: instead of a
single value, you can provide a range for the p value based on the standard tables given
in the Appendix.

Solution:

(a)
The hypothesis can be formulated as:
𝐻𝐻0 : 𝜇𝜇 ≤ 205
𝐻𝐻1 : 𝜇𝜇 > 205

With the population standard deviation unknown, we apply the one-tail t test.

Sample mean: 𝑋𝑋� = 249.5

Sample standard deviation: 𝑆𝑆 = 91.25

The t statistics based on the sample data:

𝑋𝑋� − 205
𝑡𝑡0 = = 1.95
𝑆𝑆⁄√16
At 5% level of significance, the critical value for t test is:

𝑡𝑡0.05,15 = 1.753

As the t statistic based on the sample exceeds the critical value, the null hypothesis
should be rejected. In other words, there is significant evidence that the mean repair
time exceeds 205 hours.

(b)
The p value of the t test is 3.5%.
Based on the t statistic: 𝑡𝑡0 = 1.95 , it can be observed from the standard t table that the
range of p values are within: (2.5%, 5%).

If the level of significance is revised to 2.5%, there is no significant evidence to reject


the null hypothesis.

Q3. Long waiting time has been cited as a key complaint by patients regarding the service at
a general hospital. The hospital has embarked on an initiative to reduce waiting time for
patients. The waiting time is defined as the time a patient gets a queuing ticket until he/she
gets to see a doctor. A random sample of 15 patients is collected, and the waiting times are:

42.1 55.5 30.2 51.3 47.7 23.4 35.4 32.0


45.0 61.0 3.8 51.2 64.6 61.9 37.9
At the 0.05 level of significance, is there sufficient evidence that the population mean
waiting time is less than 45 minutes?

Solution:

The hypothesis can be formulated as:


𝐻𝐻0 : 𝜇𝜇 ≥ 45
𝐻𝐻1 : 𝜇𝜇 < 45

With the population standard deviation unknown, we apply the one-tail t test.

Sample mean: 𝑋𝑋� = 42.8667

Sample standard deviation: 𝑆𝑆 = 16.3799

The t statistics based on the sample data:

𝑋𝑋� − 45
𝑡𝑡0 = = −0.5044
𝑆𝑆⁄√15

At 5% level of significance, the critical value (one-tail, left) for t test is:

𝑡𝑡0.05,14 = −1.761
As the t statistic based on the sample exceeds the critical value, the null hypothesis
cannot be rejected. In other words, there is not significant evidence that the population
mean waiting time is less than 45 minutes.

Common questions

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The critical value approach and the p-value approach in hypothesis testing both aim to make decisions regarding the null hypothesis but do so in different ways. The critical value approach involves comparing the test statistic to a threshold that determines significance based on the level of confidence. If the test statistic exceeds the critical value, the null hypothesis may be rejected. The p-value approach calculates the probability of obtaining the observed test statistic or more extreme, and compares it to the significance level. In the chocolate packaging scenario, the critical value approach showed that the observed t-statistic did not lead to rejection of the null hypothesis, while the p-value supported this by being above the designated alpha, both indicating insufficient evidence for mean difference from 8.17 ounces .

A manufacturing process might be halted based on hypothesis testing if the sample mean deviates significantly from the specified mean, indicating a potential issue in the filling process. For the chocolate candy manufacturer example, the packaging process is stopped if there is significant evidence that the mean amount of chocolate per package is different from the desired 8.17 ounces. This decision is based on hypothesis testing, where surpassing the critical region or having a p-value below the significance level would suggest non-conformance to the expected mean, warranting an interruption to investigate and correct the process .

The standard deviation of a sample affects the outcome of a hypothesis test for mean repair time by influencing the variability measure within the sample data. The calculated t-statistic, used to determine whether the sample mean differs significantly from a hypothesized value, is inversely proportional to the sample standard deviation. A higher standard deviation implies more variability, which can reduce the t-statistic, making it less likely to exceed the critical value needed to reject the null hypothesis. Conversely, a smaller standard deviation leads to a larger t-statistic, increasing the likelihood of rejecting the null hypothesis if there is indeed a true difference in means. In the repair time case, a standard deviation of 91.25 impacts the t-statistic calculation .

The p-value in hypothesis testing represents the probability of obtaining a test statistic as extreme as, or more extreme than, the observed result, assuming the null hypothesis is true. In the context of manufacturing chocolate packages, a p-value of 12.72% indicates there is a 12.72% chance of observing a sample mean of 8.159 ounces or more extreme if the true population mean is 8.17 ounces. As this p-value exceeds the 5% significance level, the null hypothesis is not rejected, meaning there is not enough statistical evidence to conclude that the mean amount of chocolate per package differs from 8.17 ounces .

Hypothesis testing in manufacturing can be used to determine if the mean amount of chocolate in packages differs from a specified value by setting up a null and an alternative hypothesis. In this example, the null hypothesis states that the mean amount of chocolate is 8.17 ounces, while the alternative hypothesis suggests it is different from 8.17 ounces. A sample mean of 8.159 ounces with a standard deviation of 0.051 ounces is calculated from 50 packages. The test statistic is determined using the t-distribution due to the sample size. If the calculated t-statistic falls within critical values and the p-value is greater than the significance level, the null hypothesis is not rejected, indicating insufficient evidence to suggest a difference from the specified mean .

Changing the level of significance from 5% to 2.5% increases the threshold for rejecting the null hypothesis, meaning the test requires stronger evidence to conclude that the mean repair time exceeds 205 hours. At a 5% level, the p-value of 3.5% leads to rejecting the null hypothesis, indicating significant evidence that the mean exceeds 205 hours. However, with a 2.5% significance level, the p-value exceeds this stricter threshold, resulting in insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis. This demonstrates the sensitivity of hypothesis tests to the chosen significance level and the balance between risks of Type I and Type II errors .

Sample size and sample standard deviation critically interact to influence the results of a hypothesis test by determining the precision of the estimated population parameter and the variability around the sample mean. Larger sample sizes tend to yield more reliable and less variable estimates of the population mean, thereby producing smaller standard errors, which can increase the test statistic and make it easier to reject the null hypothesis. Conversely, a higher sample standard deviation increases the standard error, reducing the effect of increasing sample size. For the repair time analysis, a sample of 16 with a standard deviation of 91.25 affects the t-statistic, balancing the precision of estimation with the inherent variability .

One-tail hypothesis testing differs from two-tail testing as it assesses the possibility of a parameter falling in one specific direction from the hypothesized value, thus increasing the power of detecting a difference in that direction. It tests for just one of the possible divergences, either greater or less. Meanwhile, two-tail testing evaluates differences in both directions, thus being more conservative, as it checks if the parameter is significantly higher or lower than the hypothesized value. In the case of repair time, one-tailed testing assesses only whether the mean time exceeds 205 hours, whereas two-tailed tests consider deviations on both sides .

The t-distribution is preferred over the z-distribution in hypothesis testing for small sample sizes because it accounts for the additional uncertainty introduced when estimating the population standard deviation from a sample. The t-distribution is more spread out with heavier tails compared to the z-distribution, accommodating the variability in smaller samples. This is crucial when the sample size is small and the population standard deviation is unknown. As the sample size increases, the t-distribution approaches the z-distribution. In the chocolate package scenario, a sample of 50 might still justify a t-distribution, but a sample much smaller definitely necessitates it .

The level of significance, typically denoted as alpha, is the probability threshold below which the null hypothesis is rejected in a hypothesis test. It is important to consider because it defines the risk of making a Type I error, which is rejecting a true null hypothesis. When the p-value is less than or equal to the significance level, it suggests that the observed data is inconsistent with the null hypothesis, leading to its rejection. Conversely, a p-value higher than the significance level indicates insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis, as in the case of the chocolate package mean test .

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