Ex.
Activity Duration
(i-j) tij
(1) (2)
tij
1-2 2
1-3 4
1-4 3
2-5 1
3-5 6
4-6 5
5-6 7
i) Draw a network diagram for the project.
ii) Complete earliest event time and latest event time.
iii) Critical path and total project duration.
iv) Total, Free and Independent float for each activity.
Solution:
Following is the required diagram:
2 9 1
5
2 10 10 7
6
1 6
4 3
0 0 17 17
4 4
3 12
Fig: Network Diagram
To determine earliest event and latest event for each time proceed as follows:
Forward pass method: Backward pass method:
E1 = 0
L6=17
E2 = E1 + t1,2 =0+2=2
L5= L6- t5,6 =17-7 =10
E3 = E1 + t1,3 =0+4=4
L4= L6- t4,6 = 17-5=12
E4 = E1 + t1,4 =0+3=3
L3= L5- t3,5 =10-6=4
E5 =Max{ E2 + t2,5 , E3 + t3,5}
L2= L5- t2,5 =10-1 =9
={2+1, 4+6} = {3,10}=10
L1 = Min{ L2- t1,2 , L3 + t1,3 ,
E6 =Max{ E5 + t5,6 , E4 + t4,6} L4 + t1,4}
={10+7, 3+5} = {17,8}=17 ={9-2, 4-4, 12-3}
={7, 0, 9}=0
Table: computation of the Estimates
Activity Duration Earliest Latest
(i-j)
tij Start Finish Start Finish
Ei Ej = Li Lj
Ei+tij Lij- tij
1-2 2 0 2 7 9
1-3 4 0 4 0 4
1-4 3 0 3 9 12
2-5 1 2 3 9 10
3-5 6 4 10 4 10
4-6 5 3 8 12 17
5-6 7 10 17 10 17
Critical Path: 1-3-5-6
Project Duration Time: 17 units.
Float: Relax or delay provided to any activity.
Relax or Float = Time provided – Duration.
[Link] Float (TF)
[Link] Float(FF)
[Link] Float(IF)
[Link] Float (TT):
The maximum relax or delay provided to any activity without affecting project
duration.
1 2
B A C
15 20
2 6 tij=5
Ei=2, Ej=15, Li=6, Lj=20 tij=5
Total Float (TF) = (Lj - Ei)- tij = (20-2)-5=13days.
[Link] Float (FT):
Relax or delay provided to any activity without affecting
Earliest Start Time (EST) of successor.
Free Float (FF) = (Ej - Ei)- tij = (15-2) -5 =8days.
[Link] Float(IF): Relax or delay provided to any activity without affecting
Earliest Start Time (EST) of successor as well as Latest Finish Time of predecessor.
TF= (Ej - Li)- tij = (15-6) -5 = 4 days.
TF ≥ FF ≥ IF and Critical activity → all three float must be zero.
The concept of float is useful for the management in representing underutilized resources and flexibility of the
schedule and the extent to which the resources will be utilized on different activities.
Float can be used for redeployment of resources to label the same or to reduce the project duration. Whenever a float
in a particular activity is utilized the float of not only that activity but that of other activities would also change.
Slack of an Event
The basic difference between slack and float times is that slack is used for events only whereas float is applied for
activities. For any given event, the event slack is defined as the difference between the latest event and earliest event
times. Mathematically, for a given activity (i-j)
Head event slack = Lj - Ej and Tail event slack = (Li - Ei)
Table: Computations of the Estimates and Floats
Activity Duration Earliest Latest Float
(i-j)
tij
Start Finish Start Finish TF FF IF
Ei Ej Li Lj (Lj - Ei)- tij (Ej - Ei)- tij (Ej - Li)- tij
Ei+tij Lij- tij
1-2 2 0 2 7 9 7 0 -7
1-3 4 0 4 0 4 0 0 0
1-4 3 0 3 9 12 9 0 -9
2-5 1 2 3 9 10 7 0 -7
3-5 6 4 10 4 10 0 0 0
4-6 5 3 8 12 17 9 0 -9
5-6 7 10 17 10 17 0 0 0
Project Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT)
In research project of designing a new machine or development of a new dairy product, various activities to be
performed are based on judgment. A reliable time estimate is difficult to get because the technology is changing
rapidly. Time values are subjected to variation. The main objective of the analysis through PERT is to find out the
completion for a particular event within specified date. What are the chances of completing the job? This approach
takes into account uncertainties.
In this approach three time values are estimated with each activity:
1. Optimistic time (t0)
2. Most likely time (tm) and
3. Pessimistic time. (tp)
The three time values provide a measure of uncertainty associated with that activity.
1. Optimistic time (t0)
It is the shortest possible time in which the activity can be finished and assumes that everything goes very well. In
other words, it is the estimate of the minimum possible time, which an activity takes to complete under ideal conditions
i.e. no provision is made for breakdown, delays etc. They are generally denoted by (t0) or (a).
2. Most likely time (tm)
This is estimate of the normal time the activity would take. This assumes normal delays. It is denoted by (t m) or (m).
If a graph is plotted between the time of completion and frequency of completion in that period, the highest frequency
of occurrence is denoted by most likely time as shown in Fig. 21.1.
Fig. 21.1 Time distribution curve
3. Pessimistic time (tp)
The longest time, the activity could take if everything goes wrong. In other words, it is the longest time the activity
can conceivably take. This is generally denoted by (tp) or (b).
The three time values are shown in Fig. 21.1.
The PERT technique makes the following assumptions:
There are enough activities involved in the network and totals of activity times based on their means and
variances will be normally distributed.
The three estimates of the activity duration can be obtained for each activity.
In PERT calculation, all values are used to obtain the expected value.
Estimated time or Expected time or Mean activity duration:
This is the average time an activity will take if it is to be repeated large number of times and is based on the assumption
that the activity time follows distribution.
t0 + 4t m + t p
te =
6
Variance
Variance of each activity is given by formula:
2
t −t
2 = p 0
6
where to , tp and tm are optimistic , pessimistic and mostly likely times respectively.
Once the expected times of the activities are obtained, the critical path of the project network is determined using three
time estimates. Having found the critical path, the PERT methodology assumes that the aggregation of the mean times
and the summation of the variances of critical jobs would yield the expected project duration and its variance. PERT
uses the variance of critical path activity to help in determining the variance of the overall project. Project variance is
computed by summing variance of just critical activities.
PERT Algorithm
The various steps involved in the PERT network for analyzing any project are summarized below:
i) Develop a list of activities involved in the project including the immediate predecessors.
ii) Draw the network diagram using the rules and conventions as discussed before.
iii) Number the events in ascending order from left to right
iv) From the three time estimates compute the expected time (te) for each activity using the formula
t 0 + 4t m + t p
te =
6
Using the expected activity time estimates, determine the earliest start time and earliest finish time for each
activity.
v) Compute the latest start time and latest finish time and the float associated with each activity. Find the activities
with zero total float which are known as critical activities. From these critical activities find the critical path.
vi) Using the value for tp (b) and to(a) , calculate the variance (σ2) by using the formula
2
t − t0
2
= p
6
vii) Use the variability in the activity times to estimate the variability of the project completion date; using this
estimate compute the probability of meeting a specified date by using the standard normal equation
where Z is a standard normal variate
Illustrative Examples on PERT
The computation procedure used for PERT is described in the examples 1and 2
Example 1:
A small project is composed of nine activities whose time estimates are listed in the following table:
Activity t0 tp tm
(i-j)
1-2 1 1 7
1-3 1 4 7
1-4 2 2 8
2-5 1 1 1
3-5 2 5 14
4-6 2 5 8
5-6 3 7 11
1. Draw the project network.
2. Find the expected task time.
3. Calculate Variance.
4. Earliest and latest expected time of each node.
5. Critical path
6. The Probability that project will be completed on schedule. If scheduled completion time is 20 weeks.
7. Find the scheduled time for 99.2% probability of completion of the project.
Solution:
Activity t0 tm tp 2
(i-j) t − t0
2
= p
6
1-2 1 1 7 2 1
1-3 1 4 7 4 1
1-4 2 2 8 3 1
2-5 1 1 1 1 0
3-5 2 5 14 6 4
4-6 2 5 8 5 1
5-6 3 7 11 7 1.8
Expected project duration time is Te = 17 weeks
Given scheduled completion time Ts = 20 weeks.
Critical path is 1-3-5-6 and total duration is 17 weeks with variance c 2 = 1+4+1.8 = 6.8
c = 2.60
The Probability that project will completed on schedule is
T − Te 20 − 17
Prob z s = p z = p (z 1.15) = 0.8749 = 87.49%
c 2.60
We have to Find 99.2% probability of
completion of the project.99.2%= 0.992
z = 2.41
we have
Ts − Te
z=
c
Ts − 17
2.41 =
2.60
Ts − 17 = 2.41 2.60 = 6.266
Ts = 6.266 + 17 = 23.26 weeks 24 weeks
Example-2
A small project is composed of nine activities whose time estimates are listed in the following table:
Activity t0 tp tm
1-2 5 10 8
1-3 18 22 20
1-4 26 40 33
2-5 16 20 18
2-6 15 25 20
3-6 6 12 9
4-7 7 12 10
5-7 7 9 8
6-7 3 5 4
a) Find the expected task time and their variance.
b) Earliest and latest expected time of each node.
c) Critical path
d) Probability that project will complete in 41.5 weeks and 44weeks.
Solution:
The expected task time and variances of different activities are computed by the following formulae:
t 0 + 4t m + t p
te =
6
and
2
t p − te
2
=
6
and these values are given in following table
Activity t0 tp tm
1-2 5 10 8 47/6 25/36
1-3 18 22 20 20 16/36
1-4 26 40 33 33 196/36
2-5 16 20 18 18 16/36
2-6 15 25 20 20 100/36
3-6 6 12 9 9 36/36
4-7 7 12 10 59/6 25/36
5-7 7 9 8 8 4/36
6-7 3 5 4 4 4/36
Construct the network diagram showing earliest and latest expected time of each node.
Critical path is 1-4-7 and total duration is 257/36 = 42.833 weeks with variance = 221/36
Now probability that project will complete in 41.5 weeks is
Ts − Te 41.5 − 42.833
Prob(x 41.5) = Prob z = Prob z = Prob(z − 0.538) = 0.2981
221
c
36
Hence, there are 29.81% chances that project will be completed before 41.5 weeks.
Now probability that project will complete in 44 weeks is
Hence, there are 99.81% chances that project will be completed before 44 weeks.