Probability and Event Analysis Problems
Probability and Event Analysis Problems
A 2, 5 , 6 B 5431, C 4,5,6 D 3
A B A C B C A B C A B A B A B A B
A B C
A B C A B C A B C
c) With the events A and B from the previous section, verify that A B A B
b)
A B 1,2,3,4,5,6 A C 5.6 B C 1,3,4,5,6 A B C 2 , 4 , 5 , 6
A B A B A B A B 1,2,3,4,6 A B 1,2,3,4,6
A B C 1,2,3,5,6, A B C 2.5 A B C 4 A B C 4 . 6
c) A B 2 . 6 A B 2.6
Problem 2
Three shots are fired at a target. Let A, B, and C be the events that occur when the
First, second, and third shots, respectively, hit the target.
B; A B C; A B; A B; A B C; A B C; A B C;
A B C; A B A B; A B C;
A B C Get the first one right or fail the other two.
A B C A (B C) Gets the first and the second right but fails the
third.
A B A B Get the first one right and fail the second, or,
gets the second one right and fails the first one.
A B C A B
C A B C Get only the first one right.
Problem 3
Problem 4
A survey conducted with 100 people yields the following result: There are 38 people who
37 read newspaper B and 40 read C; there are 8 who read A and B, 9 who read A and C,
10 who read B and C and 3 who read A, B, and C. Let's also call A, B, and C the events that occur.
They check when, upon selecting a person from the 100 in the survey, they read newspaper A or B.
or C, respectively. Make a Venn diagram of the situation presented. Express-
Given A, B, and C, determine the following events and calculate the number of elements that
they have:
2. Read A or B, but not more. 7. Read, like, at most one of the three.
Read A and C but not B. Read two of them, but not three.
1. A B 67 people
2. A B C 51 people
3.A C B 6 people
4. A B C 91 people
5.A B C 3 people
6. A B C
A B C A B
C 70 people
7. A B C
A B C A B C A B C 79 people
8. A B C A B C A B C
18 people
9. A B C 9 people
10. A B 33 people
Antonio and Basilio are the finalists of a chess tournament. The tournament is won by the one who wins two.
consecutive games or three alternatives. Find the sample space or set of outcomes
possible.
We will denote A as the event <<Antonio wins>> and B as the event <<Basilio wins>>=<<losing
Antonio>>.
Problem 6
A casino enthusiast has time to play roulette five times at most. Each
The bet is 1000 points. Start with 1000 points and stop playing when you lose the 1000 points.
when I earn 4000 points. Find the sample space.
The following tree diagram shows the possible outcomes of the game:
E 10,1210,121210,121212,121232,121234,123210,123212,123232,123234,1234
Problem 7
In a residence, there are 1085 elderly people, of whom 519 smoke and 226 have respiratory conditions.
noses. But there are only 31 who, although they do not smoke, have lung conditions. Make a
contingency table and find out:
If we create a contingency table, we have the following starting data that appears in
she
No pulmonary conditions
195
b) 0.3757 that is 37.57%
519
31
c) 0.0547, that is 5.47%
566
195
d) 0'8628 that is 86.28%
226
Problem 8
a) Sum equal to 6.
Odd sum.
E 1,1;1,2; ...;2,1;2,2;
...;6,6
b) From the 36 possible cases, even sums are formed by an even number and an odd number. Fixing the
first number (any from 1 to 6) this can be accompanied by three.
3.4,
Example: 3.2, 3.6. Then there will be 6·3. 18 favorable cases:
18
p(odd sum) 0.5
36
Then A is formed by 1.1, 1.2, 2.1. So:
3 33
p A 1 p A 1 0.91
36 36
d) In the form 4, there are five cases, and in the way ,4 other count.
five. The 4.4 doesn't
Then:
10
p(only a 4) 0:27
36
e) From form 4, there are six cases, just like those that are of the form,4 , but the 4,4
counted twice, then:
11
p(at least a 4)
36
Let A be the event "The sum is 7" and let B be the event "Multiple of 12".
B 2 , 6 , 3 , 4 , 4 , 3 , 6 , 2 A B 3.4,4 .3
6 4 2 8
p(A B) p(A) p(B) p(A B) 0'22
36 36 36 36
a) A urn contains 2 red balls, 3 white balls, and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn. Probability
that it be red, that it be white, and that it be black.
b) Two balls are extracted simultaneously from the urn. Probability that both are red.
jas. Probability that both are black.
2 3 5
a)p(R) 0'2 p(B) 0.3 p(N) 0.5
10 10 10
2 1 5 4
b) p(2R) 0.022 p(2N) 0'22
10 9 10 9
Problem 10
Let's suppose that the probability of it raining tomorrow is 0.4, and the probability of it raining the day after tomorrow.
Tomorrow 0.3; let's assume that the probability of it raining for both days is 0.2. Calculate:
This event occurs when A or B or both are verified; then it is the event A.
A B 1 p A B 0.5
1 0.5
c)
A B
B p A
p A p A
B
d) The event 'it only rains one day' is A B A B, (it only rains tomorrow, or only
It will rain the day after tomorrow). Therefore, it will be B and A Incompatible results:
pA B A B p A pA B
B
Then:
Problem 11
In an examination with a syllabus of 100 topics, 3 topics are chosen at random. If a candidate
30 topics have been prepared:
C 30.3
p(the 3) 0.025 that is 2.5%
C100.3
C 70.3
b) p(none) 0.056 that is 5.6%
C100.3
C 70.3
d) p(at least 1) 1 none 1 0.943 that is 94.3%
C100.3
Problem 12
7 7
a) p 0'14
VR7.249
7 7
b) p 0'020
VR7.3343
Problem 13
a) What is the probability p that when rolling two dice n times, at least one 6 is obtained?
double?
1
b) How many matches will have to be played for quep ?
2
a) For each roll, there are 36 possible outcomes and only one favorable, therefore the probability of
35
that the double 6 does not come up in each roll is , and the probability that the 6 does not come out
36
n
35
double in the n launches is Therefore, the probability of obtaining at least
36
n
35
a double 6 in the n launches is p 1 .
36
I.E.S. Historiador Chabás -11- Juan Bragado Rodríguez
1
b) The number of matches that need to be played for p is given by the value of n in:
2
n n
1 35 35 1 35 1
1 n log log n 24'605 25
2 36 36 2 36 2
Problem 14
a) What is the probability that, when choosing 25 people at random, there are at least
of whose birthdays coincide?
b) Choosing 5 people at random, what is the probability that at least two of them have
born on the same day of the week?
a) The direct calculation of this probability requires analyzing many cases, since if we assume or-
Out of these 25 people, the probability that they match must be calculated.
birthday of the 1st and 2nd, 1st and 3rd, 1st and 4th, etc., analyze and separate from the count the cases in which
The birthdays of more than two coincide, due to having been counted twice. Excessive!
Let's consider the opposite event: that there are no two people whose birthdays coincide, that is,
that the 25 birthdays be different.
Thus, the date on which the first person has their birthday can be any of the 365 dates.
365
of the year .
365
The date on which the second person has their birthday can be any of the 364 remaining dates.
364
aunt .
365
The date on which the third person has a birthday can be any of the 363 dates.
363
remaining .
365
The birthday of the twenty-fifth person can be any of the
341
365 24 341 remaining dates .
365
7 6 5 4 3
p 1 · · · · 0'8501
7 7 7 7 7
Problem 15
In a deck of 40 cards, three different cards are drawn. Calculate the probability that
the three should be distinct numbers.
40
We take one, whose probability is .
40
Since there are 4 cards with the same number, the second card we choose will be from the 36.
the remaining ones that have nothing to do with that number, that is, the probability of the second will be:
36
.
39
Since from the first there are 4 equal numbers and from the second there are also 4, the probability of the third one
32
it will be from:.
38
Therefore, the probability that the three numbers are different will be:
40 36 32
· · 0'777
40 39 38
A urn contains 5 white balls and 2 black ones. 3 balls are drawn, without paying attention to the color, and
they are set aside. What is the probability that the next one to be drawn is white?
1 1 43
p(B) 4 3 0.7142
7 21 7 21
Problem 17
A plane has 5 bombs. It wants to destroy a bridge. The probability of destroying it with one
The bomb has a 1/5 chance. What is the probability that it will destroy the bridge?
4 4 4 4 4
p(at least one) 1 none 1 · · · · 0'67232
5 5 5 5 5
In a class, 40% pass philosophy and 50% mathematics. Additionally, the probability of
approving philosophy having passed mathematics is 0.8. Prove that half of the
class suspends both subjects and calculate the percentage of students who, having passed
philosophy passes, mathematics also passes.
From the statement, it is deduced that those who pass philosophy having passed mathematics are a
80% of 50% (which passes mathematics), that is, 40%.
The small numbers in parentheses indicate the order in which the table has been filled. Looking at it,
It is observed that 50% of the total (half of the class) fails mathematics and philosophy. And that the
Total (100%) of those who pass philosophy also pass mathematics.
Problem 19
a) Create a table organizing the previous data and finding the total percentage of parts.
fraudulent and non-fraudulent.
b) Calculate what total percentage of parts corresponds to the fire branch, and what corresponds to the
car branch and which to 'others'. Add this data to the table:
c) Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen complaint is fraudulent. What will it be,
on the other hand, the probability that it is fraudulent if it is known to be from the branch of in-
fires?
and
6% 0'06
c)p Fraud 10% 0'1 Fraud / Fires 0.3
20% 0'20
Problem 20
We have three urns12yU3with the following compositions of white balls and ne-
grass:U1( 3 B , 7 N ) , U 2(5B,5N),U 3(8B, 2N). We roll a perfect die and extract a
ball of U1if 1, 2 or 3 comes out, we take a ball from U2if we get 4 or 5 and, finally, we get one
ball of U3If 6 is drawn. Calculate the probability that the extracted ball is black.
We represent the process in a tree diagram and calculate the total probability by summing.
the corresponding branches.
U1
3 7 21
·
6 10 60
U2
2 5 10 21 10 2 11
· p Black
6 10 60 60 60 60 20
U3
1 2 2
·
6 10 60
Problem 21
There are two urns containing 4 green balls and 6 black ones in the first urn, and 2 green and 4 n...
take the second. Proceed to take 3 balls from the first, to introduce them into the second and to
take, next, 2 balls from this last urn.
a) What is the probability that the 5 extracted balls are of the same color?
c) If the extracted balls are 4 green and 1 black, what is the probability that the 3
are extracted from the first urn be green?
6 5 4 7 6
· · ·
10 9 8 9 8 6 5 4 7 6
p(3N and 2N) · · · ·
10 9 8 9 8
P 3V in I · P 2V in II / 3V in I P 3N in I · P 2N in II / 3N in I
4 3 2 5 4 6 5 4 7 6 23
0'106
10 9 8 9 8 10 9 8 9 8 216
b)
4 3 2 5 4
· · 2
10 9 8 9 8
4 3 6 4 3
3... ·
10 9 8 9 8
4 3 2 5 4 4 3 6 4 3 3.552
2 3 0'068
10 9 8 9 8 10 9 8 9 8 51.840
5 4 4 3 2
2
p 3V in I / 4V, 1N in total 9 8 10 9 8 0'270270
5 4 4 3 2 4 3 4 3 6
2 3
9 8 10 9 8 9 8 10 9 8
Problem 22
ax + y + z = 2
bx + y + z = 3
x + y + cz = 4
For the system to be compatible and determined, the determinant of the matrix must be distinct.
from scratch.
a 1 1 a 1 1
b 1 1 b a 0 0 (b (c 1)
1 1 c 1 c1
The system is compatible determined when 1 and b a. Let's see the probability of this
it happens.
5
How c 1 and on a die we have six possibilities p(c)
6
6 5 5
p(a)·p(b)·p(c) · · 0.6944
6 6 6
Problem 23
A die numbered from 1 to 6 is loaded in such a way that the probability of rolling a
number is proportional to that number.
i) Find the probability of getting 3 given that an odd number was drawn.
ii) Calculate the probability of getting an even number given that it is known to be greater than 3.
Calling p 1 k,p2 2k,p3 3k, ...................,p 6 6k and taking into account that
the total probability is 1, the probability of each face is obtained.
p(A B)
To obtain the requested probabilities we will consider that: p(A / B)
p(B)
1
p 1 p 2 p 3 ······ p 6 k 2k 3k ······6k 21k 21k 1 k
21
p3 odd p(3) 3k 1
p3/odd
p odd p(1) p(2) p(3) k 3k 5k 3
Problem 24
A die is rolled twice. Calculate the probability that on the second roll it happens
have a number smaller than in the first.
Of the 36 possible cases, we eliminate the 6 in which both scores match. There are 30 left. In
Half of them will be greater in the first roll, and in the other half, the second.
Problem 25
Four athletes participate in a competition. How many ways can they finish?
Meta, if we assume that more than one can arrive simultaneously? Find the probability-
dad for two of them to arrive at the finish line at the same time.
In each spot, at most two elements can coincide, so that all three are occupied.
4!
squares. If we look at the third square, there is C4.2 6 ways to combine
2! · 2!
two elements, but combined in the first and second place with two possibilities afterwards
there are 12 different ways. If the two elements match in the first or second position in
we will have: 3·12 36.
Occupying only the first is that all four match, which happens in only one way.
To calculate the probability of two arriving at the same time, we will understand it as arriving at least
two at a time, then:
36 14 1 51
let two arrive at once 0'68
75 75
In a class where everyone practices some sport, 60% of the students play soccer.
or basketball and 10% practice both sports. Additionally, there is 60% that does not play
football, what will be the probability that, choosing a student at random from the class:
Discounting the 10% that also play basketball (only football) 30% 0.3
b) We understand that it means 'play basketball but not football'. (This clarification is im-
dispensable as there are more sports).
p(one only of F or B) p F B p F B
1 0'6 0'4
Problem 27
In a city, 40% of the population has brown hair, 25% has brown eyes.
Years and 15% have brown hair and eyes. A person is chosen at random. Calculate:
a) If you have brown hair, what is the probability that you also have brown eyes?
b) If you have brown eyes, what is the probability that you do not have brown hair?
c) What is the probability of not having hair or brown eyes?
15
a) brown eyes/brown hair 0.375
40
10
b) no brown hair/brown eyes 0'4
25
50
c) no brown hair and no brown eyes 0.5
100
Problem 28
a) False. For example, when rolling a fair die, the events {5}, {6} are incompatible, since
5 6 , but not independent, since:
1 1 1
p(5) p(6) p 5 6 0.
6 6 36
3 2 1
p(A)·p(B) · pA B p(6) however, they are not incompatible.
6 6 6
p(A B)
c) True. p(A / B) p(A B) p(A | B) · p(B)
p(B)
Well, if A and B are independent, p(B) p(B |A), therefore in this case:
Problem 29
Let A and B be two events and Acthe opposite event of A. If the probabilities are known
of the events B,Acy A B, how can you find the probabilities of the events B,
AandA
c
B
A B Ac B p(A c ) 1 p(A)
Once balls that are engraved with the numbers from 1 to 11 are distributed in 3 urns. One of
these urns contain the balls with the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, another the ones that correspond to the
numbers 6, 7, 8, and 9 and the third to the two remaining balls. After choosing a ballot box at random, the balls are drawn.
two balls. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers is even?
1 1 1 1 11
p(even sum) 0:24
30 10 18 18 45
We have two coins, one normal and the other double-sided, and a urn with ten balls.
four white and six black. We take out two balls from the urn; if they are of the same color, we choose
the correct coin and we toss it in the air. In another case, we choose the incorrect one and toss it
in the air. Find the probability of the following events:
c) If the result of the coin toss has been tails, find the probability that
the two chosen balls are of different colors.
4 3 6 5 42
a) p 2B or 2N 0'46
10 9 10 9 90
4 3 1 6 5 1
p(C) 1 p(X) 1 0.76
10 9 2 10 9 2
c) If the coin shows tails, it is because it is the correct coin, which means that the two balls
They came out the same color. The requested probability is null.
In a house, there are three keychains A, B, and C. The first one has 5 keys, the second one has 7, and the third one...
zero with 8, of which only one from each keychain opens the storage room. Chosen at random
a keychain and, from it, a key to try to open the storage room. The request is:
b) What will be the probability that the chosen keychain is the third one and the key does not open?
c) If the chosen key is the correct one, what will be the probability that it belongs to the first
Keychain A?
1 1 11
· 0'06
5 3 5 15
4 1 44
· 0'26
1 5 3 5 15
3
1 1 11
· 0'0476
1 7 3 7 21
3
6 1 6 6
· 0'2857
7 3 7 21
1
3 1 1 1 1
· 0.0416
8 3 8 24
7 1 7 7
· 0'2916
8 3 8 24
1 1 1
a) YES 0'1559
15 21 24
7
b)p Face and NO 0'2916
24
1
c) p A / SI 15 0'4274
1 1 1
15 21 24
I.E.S. Historian Chabás -26- Juan Bragado Rodríguez
Problem 33
a) We will take into account that two events are independent if it is verified that:
p S1 S 2 p S p1 S 2
p A A p( ) 0
p A A p(A)
pA A and A are employees
p(A) p A 0 y p A 0
Since p(A) 1, equality is only possible if p(B) 0. Therefore A and B are not inde-
pending unless p(B) 0.
c)
C A
C C A C A
C A
It is requested to calculate some conditional probabilities, for which we must remember that:
p(M N)
p(M/N)
p(N)
On the other hand, let us take into account that: p(M N) p(M) p(N) p(M N)
p(A B) 0'1
p(A | B) 0'3
p(B) 0.3
In a urn there are 10 balls numbered from 1 to 10. One ball is drawn at random and is noted.
Number drawn, a. The ball is returned to the urn and the process is repeated two more times,
obtaining the numbers b and c. What is the probability that the system of equations
linear
ax by c 0
2x 3 years 0
sea incompatible?
a b
The system is only incompatible when , for any value of c, as it cannot be 0
2 3
Let's remember that you only take values from 1 to 10. What are the possible values of a and b that
Do they meet this proportion?
There are 3 cases out of a total of 10·10=100 (the value of c does not influence).
3
Therefore, the requested probability is
100
Problem 36
An individual has 3 white shirts, 2 blue shirts, and 2 red shirts; and 4 white pants, 2 blue pants and
1 red. Take a shirt and pants at random. What is the probability that the shirt and
Should the pants be the same color?
the two of the same color shirt B and pants B shirt A and pants A
3 4 2 2 2 1 18
shirt R and pants R= 0'3673
7 7 7 7 7 7 49
Problem 37
A problem must be solved by three students. The probability that the first one solves it
my chance is 1/2, the chance that the second one achieves it is 1/3, and the chance that the third one achieves it is 1/6. Furthermore,
the conditional probability that the second one solves it knowing that it has been solved by the first
first is 2/3. It is requested:
b) Probability that whenever the second student solves the problem, they also do it
solve the first one.
c) Knowing that whenever the second and the first student solve the problem.
the third solves it well, calculating the probability that all three solve the problem
ma.
1 2
a) p A1 A 2 p A p 1 A / A 2
1 0.3
2 3
1
p A 1 A 3
b) p A /1 A
2
1
p A 2
2
1
3
1 2
c) p A1 A 2
A p3 A p A1 / A
p2 A / 1A A 3 1
1 2 0.3
2 3
3 p A1 A A p1 A
This result is contradictory to the p A data. well 2 3 3
6
Problem 38
The probability that a man will live 10 more years is 1/4 and the probability that his
A woman living 10 more years is 1/3. Assuming that both events are independent, calculate.
the probability that at least one of them is still alive after 10 years
It should be taken into account that since A and B are independent, p(A B) p(A)·p(B),
therefore:
1 1 1 1
p(A B) p(A) p(B) p(A B) p(A) p(B) p(A)·p(B) · 0.5
4 3 4 3
The probability that one of them will live ten years later is 1/2.
Problem 39
Faces 1, 2, 3, and 4 are green, face 5 is red, face 6 is white, and there are two urns.
with the following composition:
Urna I: 6 bolas con brillo, 4 sin brillo y Urna II: 3 bolas con brillo, 7 sin brillo.
I.E.S. Historian Chabás -30- Juan Bragado Rodríguez
We roll the dice and look at the color of the face: if it comes up green we go to urn I, if
red goes to urn II and if white comes out, it also goes to urn II. Next, we extract two
balls one by one without replacement. The request is:
i) Probability that the two balls are shiny and that they are from urn I.
6 5 4 6 5
· · ·
10 9 6 10 9
4
6
3 2 2 3 2
· · ·
2 10 9 6 10 9
6
4 6 5 2
i) Urn I and two shiny balls · · 0'2
6 10 9 9
2 3 2 1
ii) Urn II and two shiny balls · · 0'02
6 10 9 45
2 1 11
0'24
9 45 45
b) The probability that knowing a person is not poor, they are a man.
a)
R P
Total
H H R H P 0.607 P(H R) p(H)·p(R) 0.607·0.002 0.001214
M M R M P 0'393 P(M R) p(M)·p(R) 0.393·0.002 0.000786
Total 0.002 0'998 1
R P Total
H 0'001214 0'605786 0'607
M 0.000786 0.392214 0.393
Total 0.002 0.998 1
0.001214
b)p(H / R) 0'607
0.002
This could have been stated without needing to obtain the remaining data from the table, for,
because sex and wealth are independent esp(H / R) p(H).
In this case, being Man-Woman, Rich-Poor mutually exclusive events, this type
Probabilities are easily obtained from the table.
Problem 41
A mailman randomly distributes three letters among three recipients. Calculate the probability of
that at least one of the three letters reaches its correct destination.
4
(some success) 0.6
6
Problem 42
a) Different parties.
to party A.
to party C.
5 4 1
A p1A
º p 2nd B / 1st A 3rdC/1sA
t and2ndB 0'027
10 9 8
one from each party 1st A, 2nd B, 3rd C • (number of different ordering arrangements) 0'27 3! 0'16
5 4 3
1st A, 2nd A, 3rd A p1A
º 2nd A / 1st A 3rdA/1stAand2ndA 0'083
10 9 8
Problem 43
Let A and B be two independent events of a certain random experiment, such that the
the probability that both occur simultaneously is 1/3 and that neither occurs
The probability of both is 1/6. Calculate p(A) and p(B).
With this, and what we are given, we arrive at a system of two equations with two unknowns, p(A) and
p(B).
1 1 5
pA B 6
1 p(A B) p(A B) 1 0.83
6 6
1
p(A B) p(A)·p(B)
3
5 1
p(A B) p(A) p(B) p(A B) p(A) p(B)
6 3
1
p(A) p(B) 1
3 p(A) p(B)
3
5 1 7 7 1 7 1
p(B) p(A) p(A) p(A) p(A) p(A) 2 p(A) 0
6 3 6 6 3 6 3
2 7 2 1
p(B)
7 49 4 7 1 7 1 3 6 3 2
p(A) 6 36 3 6 36 6 6
2 2 2
1 7 1 2
p(B)
2 6 2 3
1 2 2 1
p(A) and p(B) o p(A) and p(B)
2 3 3 2
Problem 44
A man and a woman of the same age get married at 20 years old. The odds of
Reaching the age of 70 is 0.76 for men and 0.82 for women. It asks what is
the probability that at 70 years old:
We are given two events with their corresponding probabilities, p(A) and p(B), and we are asked to
p(A B), p(A B),p(B A) and p(A
To solve it, it is essential to assume that A and B are independent, that is,
p(A B) p(A)· p(B), which is not, by any means, obviously admissible in this statement.
Certainly: the fact that a partner reaches the age of 70 is not independent of them reaching.
Oh no, the other one. However, we will assume that A and B are independent.
Problem 45
Let's suppose that persons 3 and 4 will sit together. They can do so in 9 different ways.
namely:
3 4 3 4
3 4 3 4
3 4 3 4
3 4 3 4
3 4
3 44 3
Once the pair is fixed, there are 8 empty spots around them, and the rest of the people ...
They can be seated in 8! ways. In short, we have:
9·2·8!9·2·8! 1
p 0'2
10! 10·9·8! 5
Problem 46
To conduct a raffle, there are two urns A and B, each containing ten
numbered balls from 0 to 9.
A ball is extracted from urn A and the balls with a number are removed from urn B.
portion greater than the ball extracted from urn A. Next, a ball is extracted from the
urn B.
The winning number is obtained by placing the ball number in the tens place.
extracted from urn B and in the place of the units the number of the ball extracted from the urn
A.
1 1
p(48) p(8 in A and 4 in B) p(8 in A)·p(4 in B / 8 in A) · 0'01
10 9
1 1
b)p(17) p(7 in A and 1 in B) p(7 in A) · p(1 in B / 7 in A) · 0.0125
10 8
Problem 47
Five planes have the mission of destroying a target. If each of them launches
a bomb and the probability of hitting is 0.3, what is the probability that it has
Mission accomplished? And that only one plane has been hit?
SeaAithe event "the i-th plane has hit the target". These eventsithey are independent
to each other and, therefore, so are their opposites.
The mission will be accomplished if he shoots down at least one plane, and we know that the probability of hitting it
At least one plane is equal to one minus the probability of not hitting any.
0.7·0.7·0.7·0.7·0.7 0'1680
1
pA
2
A3 A 4 A A
5 5 0.3 0'74 0'360
Problem 48
Urn A has 6 white balls and 4 black balls, a second urn B contains 5 white balls.
and 2 black ones. A urn is randomly selected and 2 balls are drawn from it without replacement.
What is the probability that they are of different colors?
1 4 6
· ·
2 10 9
1 5 2
· ·
2 7 6
1 2 5
· ·
2 7 6
1 6 4 1 4 6 1 5 2 1 2 5
p(2 of a different color) · · · · · · · · 0'5047
2 10 9 2 10 9 2 7 6 2 7 6
Problem 49
Two players simultaneously toss two coins each. What is the probability that
do they both get the same number of faces?
a) What is the probability that the formed word starts with two consonants?
b) And what about starting with a vowel and ending with a consonant?
a) Since the word mathematics contains 2 instances of 'm', 2 instances of 't', and 3 instances of 'a', the
the possible number of distinct words we can form with all the letters is:
3,2,2 11!
PR 11 1,663,200 different words
3!·2!·2!
Of all the different words that we can form starting with two consonants
start with: mm, mt, mc, ms, tm, tc, tt, ts, cm, ct, cs, sm, st, and sc.
The probability that the formed word starts with two consonants will then be:
453.600
p(start with 2 consonants) 0'2727
1,663,200
b) The distinct words that start with a vowel and end with a consonant are: am, at, ac, as,
em, et, ec, es, im, it, ic and is.
3,2,2
They start with et PR 93,2 They start with 9
That is, they start with a vowel and end with a consonant.
2P
· R2.2
9 4 · P R 9 PR 9 5·PR9
3,2,2 2 ,2,2 3,2
438.480
438.480
starts with a vowel and ends with a consonant 0'2636
1,663,200
Problem 51
From a deck of 40 cards, 4 are drawn. Find the probability that they are of different suits.
tos.
10 10 10 10 10,000
· · · · P4 4! 0'109421162
40 39 38 37 2,193,360
Problem 52
Three coins are tossed successively and the event "getting tails on the first coin" is called A.
A to the event 'launch', B to the event 'obtain face' and C to the event 'obtain two crosses'.
a XCC,XXC,XCX,XXX B CCC,CCX,CXC,XCC,XXC,XCX,CXX
C XXC,XCX,CXX
3 4 7 28
p(A B) 0.375 p(A)·p(B) · 0.4375
8 8 8 64
2 4 3 12
p(A C) 0'25 p(A)·p(C) · 0.1875
8 8 8 64
b) p(A B C) p(E) 1
2
c) A B C XCC,XCX p(A B 0'25
8
Problem 53
b) Let's see how to obtain the favorable cases for the event 'to get exactly 3 times the'
same punctuation
First, you can choose the score that will be repeated 3 times in 6 different ways, that is,
it can be 111, 222, 333, 444, 555 or 666.
Of those six ways, each of them can be situated in the fall of C.5.3different ways
as seen in the following diagram.
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Finally, the two remaining dice can be placed in the gaps left in VR.5.2for
more distinct, since if we have set a number that repeats 3 times, this number cannot
to meet in either of the other two places, therefore we have 5 numbers to choose from.
It is easy to see that the possible cases are VR.6,5 , therefore the requested probability is:
120 2
6·C 5.3VR5.2 6 ·5
P(getting the same score exactly 3 times) 3!·2! 0'1929
VR 6.5 65
6 6
P(getting exactly 5 times the same score) 0.00077
VR6.565
c) P(at least 3 times the same score) 0'1929 0.0192 0.0007 0'2128
d) According to the above, to obtain the number of cases in which 'at least 2 times the
the same score" it would be enough to add the cases where there are "exactly 2 times the same
punctuation" (that is, some punctuation repeated but none tripled). However, this
The last count becomes complicated, as there may be two scores that repeat 2 times.
each one....It's better to use a very simple resource: the opposite of 'at least twice the
"same punctuation" is "five distinct punctuations"; and it is clear that this occurs in
6·5·4·3·2othfe65possible cases.
6·5·4·3·2
P(5 distinct scores) 0'0925
65
As a check, a direct calculation of the probability that there is some can be made.
repeated scoring, but none tripled. A single pair can be obtained by choosing
one of the 6 scores to repeat, two of the five dice to show
such scoring and 3 different scores to place in the remaining spots. this
it amounts to:
6 · C [Link]
p(2 equal scores and 3 different ones) 0'4629
65
On the other hand, to achieve two pairs, you have to choose the two scores that repeat.
tyrant, which can be done from C6.2different ways. Next, we choose 2 from among the
five dice to show the lowest of the two selected scores, and two among
the last three for the highest score; finally, the other die can be placed showing
one of the 4 results that has not yet appeared. Thus it is:
Therefore, it results:
and is obtained:
Problem 54
a) If a person bought a series of numbers from 1231 to 1240, what will be the probability?
of having a prize?
b) And what if it is known that the prize ends in 2?
c) Find the probability that the first prize will be won by a number that has only three.
different numbers, such as 0094, 3283, 8550,....
10
a) p 0.001
10,000
1
b)p 0.001
1000
10!
The possibilities of choosing 3 different digits are: C10.3 120. How it should be repeated
3!·7!
one of the figures from each group, each of these 120 gives us three new possibilities, and ten-
we will give then 120·3 360.
Each of these 360 groups is of the form aabc, abbc, abcc. If we permute the letters...
We will finally have all possible numbers. Thus, the group aabc gives rise to 12 numbers.
since
4!
PR 42 12
2!
4320
p(getting the first prize) 0'432
10,000
Problem 55
An anti-aircraft battery has three guns, with probabilities of 0.7, 0.8, and 0.9.
hit a target with each one. Calculate the probabilities of hitting one, two, or three targets.
1st form
2nd form
Be the events:
A Hit with the first cannon Get it right the second time. Get it right with the
third