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CNB Workshop on Households’ Inflation Expectations

“Measuring Households’ Inflation Expectations: Theory, Practice,
Implications”
Prague, November 28, 2024

Czech National Bank Congress Centre (The Commodity Exchange), Senovážné nám. 30, Prague 1

The conference is open to registered participants only.

Thursday, 28 November 2024

All times are in Central European Time.

08:30 Registration & Morning Coffee

Opening Remarks
08:55 Jan Brůha, Director of Economic Research Division, Monetary Department, Czech
National Bank

AAU Session (Session 1). Measurements, Drivers, and Reactions. Chair: Jiří Schwarz, Anglo-
American University, Prague

Five Facts About Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Four Different Groups of
Agents
9:00
Tuva Marie Fastbø, Eleonora Granziera, Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli (Norges Bank), Lovisa
Reiche (University of Oxford) and Michael Weber (University of Chicago Booth)

A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations

9:30 Olga Goldfayn-Frank (Deutsche Bundesbank), Pascal Kieren and Stefan Trautmann
(Heidelberg University)

Households’ Subjective Expectations: Disagreement, Common Drivers and

10:00 Reaction to Monetary Policy Banks’ Credit Losses and Lending Dynamics
Clodomiro Ferreira (Bank of Spain) and Stefano Pica (Bank of Italy)

10:30 Coffee break

Keynote Speech: Household Inflation Expectations – Some Recent Research

10:50 Insights for Monetary Policy
Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank

11:45 Lunch

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Keynote Speech: Inflation Expectations and Household Consumption

13:00 Michal Marenčák, National Bank of Slovakia

13:40 Poster session 1 and coffee

Why Greek Consumers Are Pessimistic About Their Inflation Expectations?

Evidence from the CES. Evangelos Charalambakis (Bank of Greece)
Understanding Inflation Expectations in the Czech Economy: Data, Drivers and
Policy Implications. František Brázdik, Tatiana Keseliová, Karel Musil, Radek Šnobl,
Jan Šolc, Stanislav Tvrz, and Jan Žáček (Czech National Bank)
Anchoring Households’ Inflation Expectations When Inflation Is High. Giang
Nghiem, Lena Dräger and Ami Dalloul (Leibniz University Hannover)
The Impact of Respondent Characteristics on Inflation Expectations and
Perceptions in the UK. Kamil Kladivko (Örebro University, School of Business)
Households’ Macroeconomic Beliefs: The Role of Education. Eleonora Granziera
(Norges Bank), Jessica Piccolo, Alessia Russo and Efrem Castelnuovo (University of
Padova)
Inflation Expectations and Labor Market Dynamics: Evidence from the US and
South Africa. Lovisa Reiche (University of Oxford)
Consumer Inflation Expectations in Mexico: Preliminary Findings. Carolina
Rodrıguez-Zamora and Pablo Derbez Rodríguez (Bank of Mexico)
Consumer Inflation Expectations and Local Price Changes. Ewa Stanisławska and
Tomasz Łyziak (Narodowy Bank Polski)

CNB Session (Session 2). Expectations, Uncertainty and Real-Time Implications. Chair: Jan Brůha,
Czech National Bank

Unexpecting the Expected in Forecasting Inflation: A Real-Time Analysis for the

14:30 Euro Area
Nicolás Bonino-Gayoso and Mónica Correa-López (Banco de España)

The Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Household Spending

15:00 Johannes J. Fischer (Bundesbank), Christoph Herler and Philip Schnattinger (Bank of
England)

Czech Households’ Inflation Expectations: Preliminary Results

15:30 Jaromír Baxa (Charles University), Jan Brůha (Czech National Bank), Nino Buliskeria
(Charles University) and Jiří Schwarz (Anglo-American University, Prague)

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16:00 Poster session 2 and coffee

Inflation Expectations and Business Cycles Position. František Brázdik and Tatiana
Keseliová (Czech National Bank)
Disagreement about Expected Inflation and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
in the Czech Republic. Tereza Vesela (Charles University)
Great Expectations: The Role of Experiences in Irish House Price Expectations
Formation. Laura Boyd, Tara McIndoe-Calder and Zivile Zekaite (Central Bank of
Ireland)
Inflation Expectations and Consumption: The Role of Heterogeneity in New
Keynesian Models. Frantisek Masek (Sapienza University of Rome and National Bank
of Slovakia)
The Dynamics of Consumer Inflation Expectations before and after the 2022
Inflation Spike: The Role of Perceived and Realised Inflation. Gerda Kirpson (Bank
of Estonia and Tallinn University of Technology)
Who’s on FIRE? Household Characteristics and the Formation of Inflation
Expectations. Lovisa Reiche (University of Oxford), Gabriele Galati (De Nederlandsche
Bank), Richhild Moessner (CESifo and University of Heidelberg) and Maarten van
Rooij (De Nederlandsche Bank and European Central Bank)
Determinants of Household and Professional Forecasters’ Inflation Expectations
in India. Irfan Ali K C (University of Hyderabad and Dr. B. R. Ambedkar School of
Economics University, Bengaluru) and Masudul Hasan Adil (Indian Institute of
Technology Mandi)

FSS CU Session (Session 3). Household Perceptions and Choices. Chair: Jaromír Baxa, Institute
of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague

Beyond the Headline: How Personal Exposure to Inflation Shapes the Financial
Choices of Households
16:50
Merike Kukk (Bank of Estonia and Tallinn University of Technology), Jan Toczynski
(Queen Mary University of London) and Christoph Basten (European Central Bank)

Framing Effects in Consumer Expectations Surveys

17:20
Lora Pavlova (ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research)

17:50 End of session

18:30-21:30 Dinner (by invitation)

The workshop is co-financed from the state budget by the Technology Agency of the
Czech Republic within the SIGMA Programme (project No. TQ01000396 titled “Survey
of Short-Term and Long-Term Inflation Expectations of Czech Households”).

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ORGANIZING COMMITTEE:
Jan Babecký (Czech National Bank)
Jan Brůha (Czech National Bank)

SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE:
Jan Babecký (Czech National Bank)
Jan Brůha (Czech National Bank)
Jiří Schwarz (Anglo-American University, Prague)
Jaromír Baxa (Charles University)