Chapter One

population concepts and

population Theories

By Dr. Debrework Debebe

 concepts of population Studies
 Population study is concerned with an empirical, statistical
demographic and social issues of human population.

Population study is focusing on:

a. Size: What are the changes occurred in the size of the population
& how changes occurred?

b. Mobility: Where are the people found & their mobility and special
distributions. Migration and distribution, density………

c. Composition: What kind of people ( composition) are living in a

given area?
 Population structure ( Age and sex composition in proportion)
 Population characteristics ( Demographic & social characters like marriage,
ethnicity, literacy, income…..)
d. Causes and consequences of changes in those characteristics
e. How population issues matter Development
 population studies….
 Thus, the study of population is concerned with its size or
numbers, its structure and characteristics, its distribution and
the changes taking place in it over a period of time.

 It includes the study of fertility, mortality, migration and social

mobility, that is, the components of change in the size,
structure, characteristics and distribution of population.
 population studies….

 Population study deals with the growth and distribution of

population in a given area.

 Population size, growth, and distributions are influenced

by 3 core demographic factors:
A. Fertility ( birth)
B. Mortality( death)
C. Migration ( movements)
 population studies…..

 Quantitative statistics: analyze population size, growth rate,

components of population change , structure characteristics
and territorial distribution of human populations and the
changes occurring in them.

 Qualitative descriptions are also important in the case of

socio-economic and political factors in affecting population
phenomenon. It explain population phenomena and
situations and the changes in them in the context of the
biological, social, economic and other setting.
 Demography Vs. Population Study
 Demography is the scientific study of the size, territorial
distribution and composition of population, changes, and the
components of such changes, which may be defined as natality,
mortality, territorial movement (migration) and social mobility
(change of status).

 Demography is concerned with the statistical analysis of the

components of population variation and changes involving
primarily the measurements.

 Population study is not only concerned with population numerical

changes and variations, but also the relationships b/n population
changes with other variables like social, economic, political,
biological, geographical etc. factors.
 Needs of population data

Why we need population data? What is its importance?

 Needs of population data

 Demographic data provide a basis for predicting future trends

and making informed decisions. Demographic data are
important for the formulation, implementation, and evaluation
of plans, policies and programs for social, economic and political
reasons.

 Demographic data guide policy makers in meeting the needs of

various sectors of the society, such as the young, adult, aged,
unemployed, the poor, and various cultural groups.

 Population data is used for:

 Planning development
 Budget allocation
 Political and economic decisions
 Research purposes etc.
 World population Growth and distribution

Many studies indicated that the world

population are unevenly distributed in
various regions.

It is also indicated that 80% the world

population are concentrated in the
economically less developed countries.
 World population distribution
Region 2013 Population % of World Area (km²) Density
Pop. (p/km²)
Asia 4,298,723,288 60.0% 31,915,446 135
Africa 1,110,635,062 15.5% 30,955,880 36
Europe 742,452,170 10.4% 23,048,931 32

Latin America 616,644,505 8.6% 20,546,598 30

and Caribbean

Northern 21,775,893 16
355,360,791 5.0%
America
Oceania 38,303,620 0.5% 8,563,295 4

WORLD 7,162,119,434 100.00% 136,806,988 52

Source: Worldometers clocks ( 2015) at [Link]

population/
World population distribution
 World population distribution….

In Ethiopia population density is about105 person per sq. km

 World population growth

7.6 billion 2017 2 years

7.8 billion 2020 3 years
World population growth
In 2015 Top 15 populous countries of the world
 In 2020 Top 15 populous countries of the world
Population Yearly Density Migrants Fertility Urban World
Rank Country
(2020) Change (P/Km²) (net) Rate Pop % Share

1 China 1,439,323,776 0.39 % 153 -348,399 1.7 61 % 18.47 %

2 India 1,380,004,385 0.99 % 464 -532,687 2.2 35 % 17.70 %

3 United States 331,002,651 0.59 % 36 954,806 1.8 83 % 4.25 %

4 Indonesia 273,523,615 1.07 % 151 -98,955 2.3 56 % 3.51 %

5 Pakistan 220,892,340 2.00 % 287 -233,379 3.6 35 % 2.83 %

6 Brazil 212,559,417 0.72 % 25 21,200 1.7 88 % 2.73 %

7 Nigeria 206,139,589 2.58 % 226 -60,000 5.4 52 % 2.64 %

8 Bangladesh 164,689,383 1.01 % 1,265 -369,501 2.1 39 % 2.11 %

9 Russia 145,934,462 0.04 % 9 182,456 1.8 74 % 1.87 %

10 Mexico 128,932,753 1.06 % 66 -60,000 2.1 84 % 1.65 %

11 Japan 126,476,461 -0.30 % 347 71,560 1.4 92 % 1.62 %

12 Ethiopia 114,963,588 2.57 % 115 30,000 4.3 21 % 1.47 %

13 Philippines 109,581,078 1.35 % 368 -67,152 2.6 47 % 1.41 %

14 Egypt 102,334,404 1.94 % 103 -38,033 3.3 43 % 1.31 %

15 Vietnam 97,338,579 0.91 % 314 -80,000 2.1 38 % 1.25 %

Worldometr ( 2020) at [Link]

 Trends of population growth in Ethiopia
Year Population Yearly % Yearly Migrants Median Fertilit Density Urban Urban Country's Share of World Population Ethiopia
Change Change (net) Age y Rate (P/Km²) Pop % Population World Pop Global Rank

2018 107,534,882 2.46 % 2,577,444 -12,000 18.8 4.50 108 19.7 % 22,180,245 1.41 % 7,632,819,325 12

2017 104,957,438 2.49 % 2,554,242 -12,000 18.8 4.50 105 20.2 % 21,174,205 1.39 % 7,550,262,101 12

2016 102,403,196 2.53 % 2,530,163 -12,000 18.8 4.50 102 19.7 % 20,202,815 1.37 % 7,466,964,280 13

2015 99,873,033 2.63 % 2,434,073 -12,000 18.6 4.63 100 19.3 % 19,265,898 1.35 % 7,383,008,820 13

2010 87,702,670 2.71 % 2,195,117 -10,026 17.5 5.26 88 17.2 % 15,083,947 1.26 % 6,958,169,159 14

2005 76,727,083 2.89 % 2,037,950 -16,636 16.8 6.13 77 15.6 % 11,958,476 1.17 % 6,542,159,383 16

2000 66,537,331 3.03 % 1,845,490 -31,115 16.6 6.83 67 14.6 % 9,731,656 1.08 % 6,145,006,989 16

1995 57,309,880 3.57 % 1,844,673 295,055 16.7 7.09 57 13.8 % 7,884,886 1.00 % 5,751,474,416 21

1990 48,086,516 3.34 % 1,457,235 156,015 16.8 7.37 48 12.6 % 6,063,524 0.90 % 5,330,943,460 23

1985 40,800,343 2.96 % 1,107,089 50,000 17.0 7.42 41 11.4 % 4,670,398 0.84 % 4,873,781,796 24

1980 35,264,898 1.60 % 539,615 -399,960 17.6 7.18 35 10.4 % 3,668,755 0.79 % 4,458,411,534 26

1975 32,566,821 2.77 % 830,349 -11,919 17.6 7.10 33 9.5 % 3,081,000 0.80 % 4,079,087,198 26

1970 28,415,077 2.58 % 680,290 -8,436 18.0 6.87 28 8.6 % 2,440,175 0.77 % 3,700,577,650 26

1965 25,013,626 2.46 % 572,470 -4,000 18.0 7.17 25 7.6 % 1,897,833 0.75 % 3,339,592,688 25

1960 22,151,278 2.12 % 440,797 -4,000 18.1 6.90 22 6.4 % 1,425,092 0.73 % 3,033,212,527 25
25
1955 19,947,292 1.93 % 363,852 -4,000 18.0 7.17 20 5.4 % 1,085,994 0.72 % 2,772,242,535

Source: Worldometers, 2018

 World population Con’td…….
The average birth rate of developed
countries is much lower than the
developing countries. Why?

In some countries like Japan, Germany,

Russia, Ukraine there are higher death
rates than birth rates leading to a
negative population growth rate
 Total Fertility Rate

What do we mean by Total Fertility Rate?

Total Fertility Rate
Total Fertility Rate
Total Fertility Rate for Rural and Urban China and Four Selected
Countries (1960-2010)
One child policy effect in China
 Trends of TFR in Ethiopia
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.4

5.2

4.8
4.8
TFR
4.6
4.6

4.4

4.2

4
EDHS 2000 EDHS 2005 EDSS 2011 EDHS 2016
 EDHS 2016 TFR of Ethiopia

TFR Rural Urban Total

2016 TFR 5.2 2.3 4.6

 The TFR in the rural Ethiopia is very large 5.2

 The urban TFR is optimum and promising
 Family planning programs should be strengthening in the rural areas
 Working on attitude of the rural people about family planning uses
 Educating and economic empowering of the rural women
 Total Fertility Rate…..

The trend in Total Fertility Rate all over the world is

falling down. But why still there is high population
growth?
 Fertility Rate Variations
Racial and ethnic minorities may have higher fertility rates
than the majority
families with low incomes have more children than high
incomers ( poor Vs. Rich)
Uneducated families have more children than educated
ones
Women who work outside the home generally have fewer
children than those who stay at home
rural families have more children than city dwellers
Traditional societies have more fertility rate than developed
societies
Why……………..?.
 Annual Population growth Rat

 Population in the world is currently (as of 2015-2016) growing at a

rate of around 1.13% per year. The average population number
increment (change) is currently estimated at around 80 million
per year.

 Annual growth rate reached its peak in the late 1960s, when it
was at 2% and above. The rate of increase has therefore almost
halved since its peak of 2.19 percent, which was reached in 1963.

 The annual growth rate is currently declining and is projected to

continue to decline in the coming years. Currently, it is estimated
that it will become less than 1% by 2020 and less than 0.5% by
2050.
 Annual Population growth Rat

Annual Population growth rate in Ethiopia is around 2.5%

 Causes of rapid population growth in LDCs

1. Demographic factors:
A. High fertility rate
B. Declining mortality rate
Natural Increase = No of birth – No death
The positive difference of birth & death rate leads to population No
increase.

Low death rates due to:

– medical treatments,
– better food supplies and nutrition,
– improvements in sanitation, and
– access to clean water
C. Increment of life expectancy

C. Early marriage
 Causes of rapid population growth………

2. Socio-economic factors: these are the factors which influence the

above demographic factors.
A. Children are considered as assets
B. Old age security for parents
C. Child sex preferences
D. Children give social prestige for families
E. Religious factors & cultural influences
F. Lack of access to family planning services
G. Lack of awareness about contraceptive use
H. Low educational level of women
I. Unemployment of women
J. Attitude to family planning uses

Who does give more birth? Poor or rich?

 Causes of rapid population growth…….

Other socio-economic factors:

 For example the factors which reduce mortality, like:
 Man’s ability to control famine
 Medical services
 Improved nutrition and sanitation
 Avoiding war/conflicts
 Controlling diseases
 Technology use
 Life standard improvements
 Life expectancy…..

What does Life expectancy at birth mean?

 Life expectancy……

 Definition of Life expectancy at birth: the average

number of years lived by a group of people born in
the same year, if mortality at each age remains
constant in the future.
 Life expectancy Trends

 The trend in life expectancy is growing upward in

the world, but there is a substantial gap between
developing and developed countries.

 For example: In 2006, life expectancies at birth

ranged from the mid-30s in some African countries
to the high 70s or 80s in the United States,
Australia, Japan, and some European countries.
Life expectancy Trends
 Life expectancy of Ethiopia

Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017

Ethiopia 45.17 44.68 44.21 41.24 40.88 48.83 49.03 49.23 54.99 55.41 55.8 56.19 56.56 60 60.75 62.2 62.6
World Life expectancy
Why life expectancy trend of the world is increasing?

Does life expectancy vary b/n males and females?

Does life expectancy vary based on socio-economic

status of population?
 factors for raise of life expectancy

Improvements in living conditions related to:

 housing
 nutrition
 clean water
 sanitation
 access to medical services
 developing vaccines and antibiotics
 technology use
 minimizing natural disasters
 Declining of conflicts etc.

The emerging threat for growing life expectancy of the world mainly in LDC is
HIV/AIDS pandemic.

Malaria………………..

Ebola was also a recent problem????????

 Population Theories
The Malthusian Theory:
 THOMAS MALTHUS 1766-1834, has wrote an essay in the Principle of
population growth which was first published in 1798.


 Thomas Malthus famously predicted that population growth would

outstrip agricultural food production, and without preventive measures
to reduce birthrates, technological innovation, or some kind of
widespread mortality event, humanity faced famine-induced collapse

 The core principles of Malthus was that Food is necessary for human
existence, however, human population tends to grow faster than the
power in the earth to produce food for subsistence.

 Malthus has anti-natalist view on population concerns

 Malthusian Theory….
Malthus theory has two basic principles:

 He recognized that population if unchecked, grows at

geometric Rate: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32,……n x 2

 However, food only increases at an arithmetic rate, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6,

…………..n + 1

 The authors of The Limits of Growth claimed that population

growth, expressed exponentially, will at some point surpass the
planet’s ability to support more people, because of the linear
growth of technological innovation and the Earth’s finite
resources

 He recommended that the effects of these two unequal powers

must be kept equal using voluntary preventive or negative
checks like delay of marriage & celibacy
Malthus………

Population
exceeds carrying
capacity

Population grows
geometrically

Population check
by +ve & -ve checks
 Malthusian Theory………

 If preventive checks are not used by the people, the

natural positive check will happen to balance
population number with the natural environment.

 positive checks are: famine, drought, conflict( war) ,

epidemics( diseases) etc.

 Malthus saw the positive checks as a natural method

of population control.
 Malthusian Theory……….

 NEGATIVE CHECKS (DECREASED BIRTH RATE) used to

limit the population growth. It included abstinence/
delay of marriage which lowered the fertility rate.

 POSITIVE CHECKS (INCREASED DEATH RATE) are

ways to reduce population size by events such as
famine, disease, war - increasing the mortality rate
and reducing life expectancy.
 Critique of Malthus theory

 He did not considered technological improvements

which could increase productivity of land using
irrigation and farm technologies.

 He also fail to recommend contraceptive use as a

means of preventive check. He believed that
contraceptive use is immoral from religious
perspective.

 He concluded that poverty was an inevitable result of

population growth.
 The Neo-maltusian Theory

 This theory is directly derived from Malthus theory

and share all the ideas of Malthus with the exception
of contraceptive use, which was considered as
immoral as to Malthus.

 Unlike Malthus, the Neo-maltusians recommend the

use of contraceptive as an important preventive
check for population fertility rate.
Boserup Theory of Population
 ESTHER BOSERUP 1965: believed that people have the
resources of knowledge and technology to increase food
supplies.

 After the industrial revolution and Agricultural revolution

of the world.

 Opposite to Malthus – she suggested that population

growth has enabled agricultural development to be
improved further using technology.

 Boserup has pro-natalist views on population matters

 Boserup………

In contrast to Malthus, Boserup emphasized the positive

aspects of large population:

 Boserup suggested that the more people there are, the

more hands there are to work;

 She argued that as population increases, more pressure is

placed on the existing agricultural system, which
stimulates invention;

 The changes in technology allow for improved crop strains

and increased yields
 Boserup Theory…..

 She says “ Necessity is the mother of inventions’’

 She assumes people knew of the techniques required by

more intensive systems and used them when the population
number grew.

 Demographic pressure (population density) promotes

innovation and higher productivity in use of land (irrigation,
weeding, crop intensification, better seeds) and labor
(tools, better techniques) and etc.
 Boserup Theory…..

 Boserup argued that the changes in technology allow

for improved crop improvements and increased
yields.

 BUT…. Boserup admits overpopulation can lead to

unsuitable farming practices which may degrade the
land
 Critiques on Boserup theory
 Boserup’s theory is based on assumption of ‘closed’
society but not the case in reality ( did not considered
migration)

 She also only attached development from the perspective of

Agricultural production. B/c development has multiple
dimensions than what she has stressed.
 Optimum population theory

 Edwin Cannan defined the concept of optimum population.

 He classified nations in to 3 categories:

1. Under populated nations
2. Over populated nations
3. Optimum population ( Nations with normal population size)
 Optimum population theory

 Optimum is defined interims of the size of population

favorable to the greatest productivity of an area.

 As to Cannan the concept of optimum population has been

interpreted as the size of population which results in the
highest productivity measured by economic indicators like
economic welfare, income, level of living, employment etc.

 The main principle of this theory is that population number

should not exceed the carrying capacity of a given
environment.
Criticism of optimum population theory

 Practical applicability of optimum population has

doubt in real world. How much is the optimum
number for a particular place cannot be easily
defined.

 His definition of optimum population focused only on

economic parameters without consideration of other
factors.
Demographic Transition Theory

 DT theory has developed in the 1940s to explain the

historic shifts in birth and death rates that
accompanied shifts from “traditional” to “modern”
society.

 It was formulated based on the experience of the

developed western nations, and derived from
modernization theory.
Demographic transition theory

 This model/theory has been developed based on the

actual demographic experiences of western
countries.

 The model shows the demographic transition of

population from high fertility and high mortality rates
to low fertility and low mortality rates of nations
thorough time.
 Demographic Transition……..
The model has five phases of demographic transitions

1. High stationary stage: High birth & high death rates

2. Early expanding stages: high birth rate & high but declining of
mortality

3. Late expanding stage: falling birth rate but more rapidly decreasing
mortality rate.

4. Low stationary stage: low birth rate balanced by equally low mortality
rate.

5. Declining stage: low mortality & low birth leading to death exceeding
births.
 Population Pyramids for the
four demographic transition phases
 Demographic Transition……..

A. Pre-industrialization: Low population growth

 high birth rates, high mortality rates (phase 1)

B. At early stage of industrialization: High population growth

 declining mortality rates (due to improved health and living
conditions) plus
 Birth rates start to decline after a time lag ( phase 2 &3)

C. Modern industrial society: Low population growth

 low birth rates and low mortality rates( phase 4&5)
Mortality decline causes in DT model

 The declining in mortality rates are resulted from

improvements of living conditions of the society from
time to time.

 Medication, nutrition, housing, sanitation, technology

use and etc. improvements
Criticisms of demographic transition
 It is only based on western counties experience which may not
be similar case for other countries

 The model is an over-generalization of the industrialized

European experience

 It does not provided a theoretical explanation about the forces

which are affecting fertility in the demographic transition
processes.

 The model assumes that reductions in fertility are a function of

increased wealth and industrialization, but other factors such as
the status of women and other social development are ignored.
 Theory Vs. Policy

Which population theory do most countries of the

world apply on their population and development
policies?
Thank you