BOLIVARIAN REPUBLIC OF VENEZUELA

RÓMULO GALLEGOS UNIVERSITY

SPECIALIZATION IN SCIENCES
PENAL AND CRIMINOLOGICAL

FROM PROBABILITY TO STATISTICAL INFERENCE

CRIMINAL STATISTICS

Participant
Nexar R. Bustillo L.
ID Card 15.108.444
Section: Judicial Power Yaracuy

San Felipe, August 2022

 FROM PROBABILITY TO STATISTICAL INFERENCE

Chance and Probability

Chance, which refers to a circumstance that occurs in a certain way.

unpredictable, which is why it is not planned and they occur in a way
fortuitous. Probability is used to predict the likelihood of an event
whether it exists or not, that is to say, it allows one to predict the future to some extent.

Therefore, probability is used in statistical inference, which

includes various methods.

Probability models

In that sense, there are some probability models; namely: the

discrete and continuous; in relation to the discrete, there are three types: Experiments
of Bernoulli, which is characterized by an experiment with two options, the
success or failure, where each result is independent of the others
previous results. Geometric distributions; they are used to repeat
tests until achieving the desired result. And the last one in this line, is
it is called the binomial distribution, which is used to know the occurrence of a
event, because it describes the results that demonstrate whether it is or is not a

event.

On the other hand, there are continuous models, where the set of
values can be represented by a real number or intervals of them.
Here is the model of the normal distribution, also known
like the Gaussian bell, seeks to approximate the value of a variable
random to an ideal context; for this reason, it is characterized by having the value of the

mean, median, and mode in terms of coincidence.

 Incorporation of Information

In relation to what has been previously stated, there is the use or incorporation

from the information in statistics, which is supported by the information obtained

in experiments or in observation, because every statistical process
needs research to acquire knowledge. Similarly, one can
incorporate external information into the study being carried out, because using
With these observed data, a distribution can be estimated.
probability for the magnitude of the fact being investigated.

Statistical dependence and independence: Bayes' theorem

In that sense, the information can be made up of

variables or attributes that assume a dependency or independence
statistics, for example to search for the probability of the minutes of
calls, there will be a dependence on the phone number. But in the
in the event that the values taken by a variable are not influenced by the
on the other hand, they are independent attributes. So when a factor
produces consequences on another, the formula of the Theorem of applies
What is Bayes:

Where B is the event we know, A is the set of possible ones.

causes, mutually exclusive to each other, that can produce it and, therefore, P(A/B) are

the posterior probabilities, P(A) the prior probabilities and P(B/A) the
possibility of B occurring in each hypothesis of A. In general, this formula
allows, to vary expectations, according to the concrete experience that
be aware of something that is happening.
 Random variable

Another type of variable is the random one, based on a function.

mathematics, which assigns a numerical value to the result of an experiment
Given. For example, a value is assigned to the process of flipping a coin
a determined number of times. In addition, this type of variable can be
discrete or continuous, the former are made up of a finite amount
of elements and the seconds, that is, the continuous ones are linked to the
range that encompasses all the real numbers.

Distribution function

The distribution function aims to associate each value of

the random variable, the cumulative probability up to that value. Therefore, in
the case that (X) is a discrete random variable whose values
We assume ordered from least to greatest. For example: Calculate the function
probability distribution of the scores obtained when rolling a
given. We will call the distribution function of the variable {X}, and we will write

{F(x)} to the function: .

Some discrete and continuous distributions

A discrete distribution is represented by the description of the

probability of occurrence of each value of a variable that is random and
discrete, that is to say, that has accounting values, such as a list of
non-negative integers. Therefore, it can be associated with a
non-zero probability. For example: analyzing the distribution of
number of customer complaints in a certain company, in the variable
it can be assumed that the average number of complaints per day is 10 and
you want to know the probability of receiving 5, 10, and 15 customer complaints in
one day.

In the continuous distribution, the probabilities of the

possible values of a random variable that is continuous, that is,
it is a set of possible values (known as the range) that is infinite
and cannot be counted, whose value ranges can have a
non-zero probability. For example: Calculate the average price of the liter
Gasoline prices during the next year are estimated to oscillate between 140 and
160 pesetas.

The normal distribution

This distribution has widespread use, as

Frequently, many phenomena resemble their behavior. From there
that the normal distribution is considered a theoretical model, which has the
ability to satisfactorily approximate the value of a random variable
to a desired context. Therefore, the normal distribution adapts a variable
random to a function that depends on the mean and the standard deviation.

It is significant to mention that to represent a distribution

Normally, it is necessary to have a random variable in mind, in addition to
calculate the mean and the standard deviation; then decide the function that
wants to represent, whether probability density function or function of
distribution.

Statistical inference

Statistical inference includes methods and procedures that

are used to determine the statistical properties that possess a
population, but taking part of it, that is, a sample. Therefore, it
they apply deductive reasoning about a totality, with the purpose of
obtain useful conclusions, which are based on numerical information
given by the sample. Hence it is used to model patterns in the data and
extract inferences about the population under study.

Parameter estimation

An estimator is a value that can be calculated from the data.

show them and provide information about the value of the parameter. For
Thus, the parameter estimation is based on the application of
certain techniques that contribute to making a prediction,
specifically about what the parameters of the population could be, is
to say, parameter estimation is the procedure used in
statistics, to know the characteristics of a population parameter, to
based on the knowledge of the sample.

Confidence intervals

The confidence interval is symbolized by one or several pairs of

numbers that estimate the unknown value of a population parameter, with
a certain level of confidence. It is important to highlight that the numbers
determine an interval, which is obtained from sample data
and the unknown value corresponds to a population parameter.

An important aspect is to keep in mind that the level of

confidence and the width of the interval vary together, which is why, when
If a wider interval is given, there will be a greater likelihood of success.
that is to say, a higher level of trust; however, when there is a
with a smaller interval, a more accurate estimate can be achieved, which
which increases your likelihood of error.

Hypothesis testing

A hypothesis test is based on a rule that specifies whether

one can accept or reject a statement about a population,
which will depend on the evidence provided by a sample of data.
The purpose of the hypothesis test is based on examining two hypotheses.
that are opposed regarding a specific population; therefore there is the
null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis is the statement that
It will be tested. Generally, the null hypothesis is a statement that "there is no
effect" or "there is no difference". The alternative hypothesis is the statement that
wants to conclude that it is true according to the evidence
provided by the sample data.

UNIT VI CRIMINAL STATISTICS

It can be said that criminal statistics is an auxiliary science of

Criminal Law, because it helps to recognize the relationships of
cause to effect, which can be observed in some situations or
particular events, providing information through the study of
the quantitative data. Therefore, it allows the compilation of data
numerically, in relation to the crimes committed, the individuals who
delinquents, the methods and institutions intended for punishment, among others
aspects.

Classes of criminal statistics

Criminal statistics is one of the foundations of policy.

criminal; provides data and knowledge to Criminal Law, which
allow, with greater precision, to set or take criminal policy measures or
preventive. Therefore, three types are generally distinguished.
criminal statistics: police, judicial, and prison statistics, which
they are described in subsequent content.

Informative value of criminal statistics

With criminal statistics, it is possible to obtain the dataset.

numerical data on crimes and criminals, as well as how it can be carried out
a record in official bodies, classifying and analyzing the
information that highlights a relationship between the various categories of the
criminal processes. Therefore, with criminal statistics, it is assumed that
There should be control over the population, events, reports,
among other relevant aspects for the process.

Critique of the informative value of criminal statistics

Many times the information given through statistics

criminals are criticized because it is considered that the results shown
regarding crimes or acts related to criminality, they are not in
correspondence with real events. It can also suffer some
alterations for which they would not be reliable; as well as because
There may be exaggerated claims, either because they simply remain silent.
relevant data.

The dark figures

The dark figures in criminology refer to the total number of cases

in which people are victimized, in a specific time and space,
but do not appeal to the competent authorities to carry out their
complaints, assigning different reasons, whether by considering it
improper, due to lack of time, fear, or insufficient
knowledge of your rights.

Assumptions and data about the dark figures

There are various assumptions that can arise about the figures.
dark, but some can be mentioned such as: They
it considers that real crime is not the officially recorded one, which is
much smaller; furthermore, the magnitude of the hidden figure varies

considerably depending on the type of crime; it is also considered that in the

juvenile delinquency is where a higher percentage of crime occurs,
with a relatively lower penalty rate; and the possibilities of
staying in the dark figure depends on the social class to which one belongs
delinquent.

Importance of the dark figure for criminal policy and practice

legal-criminal

The existence of dark figures allows in a way to calculate the

extent or scope of criminal acts, of criminal proceedings, between
other aspects; hence the conviction of creation must increase and
execution of criminal policies such as the fight against crime,
in addition to seeking the use of criminal law as an instrument
protector or fighting against crime. On the other hand, the dark figures can
offer an understanding of the extent of criminality.

Police statistics

This type of statistics collects and compiles all kinds of information.

related to criminal activities, number of crimes committed,
detained individuals, among other cases that are presented before the
official organizations, such as police stations, police posts,
among others. In that sense, police statistics reflect the
fluctuations of crime, in a specific time and space.

Judicial statistics

In this type of statistics, important data about

the processes that lead to a guilty verdict, that is, in the statistics
Judicial analyzes data presented by the criminal magistrate judges.
of the country.

Penitentiary statistics

In this line, reference is made to the data that is compiled about

the prison population of the country. Therefore, with this statistic one can
achieve obtaining relevant data, such as: the various categories of crimes
for which the criminals have been convicted, the sex, the age,
origin, personal aspects of the prisoners, place where they
they are serving their sentence, among others.

Questions

How is criminal statistics applied?

It applies as an auxiliary legal science that supports the law.

penal, with the study of the numerical aspects of the crime, for the purpose
to understand criminal aspects. In general, it is applied through the
collection, analysis, and interpretation of data related to crime
in a certain place and a specific moment.
 What are the types of criminal statistics?

There are three types: police statistics, judicial statistics, and statistics.
penitentiary.

What is the importance of criminal statistics?

Through criminal statistics, data can be obtained.

quantitative, reflecting the indices of the criminal phenomenon, crimes and
criminals, helping the records of official bodies, to analyze them
and classify them. Therefore, statistics symbolizes the mastery of certain
issues that occur within a geographic region and this is always a
benefit for the State because it means control; it is to secure its economy and
control the population.

Who was the founder of criminal statistics?

Adolphe Quelet is considered the founder of Criminal Statistics.

What methods are used for criminal statistics?

For the registration of statistics in criminology, the application is made of the

quantitative method, through cataloging, because data is transferred

to safeguard or provide documentary support; in addition to the systematization of
crime, for relying on critical interpretation to then order a
process.

What informative value does criminal statistics have?

 Criminal statistics provide relevant information about data
what the events reflect, the people involved, the
quantities of events in a specific area, among other aspects, that
are contributed to the police, judicial, and penitentiary field, helping to the
interpretation for decision-making.

What are the characteristics of criminal statistics?

It studies the quantitative expression of crime in social life.

They represent a set of tabulated numerical data, gathered in
the official reports of the agencies.
It is responsible for the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data.
regarding crime.

What was the name of the theory of Cesar Lombroso?

The theory of the born criminal.

What was the contribution of Cesar Lombroso? to statistics

criminal?

Lombroso's theories show a marked influence of the

Charles Darwin's postulates, linking the criminal with evolution.
man. In addition to asserting that crime is linked to physical causes
and biological, therefore it makes different classifications of the type of
delinquent.

What are the research methods used for statistics?

criminal?
 It relies on scientific research, in addition to those processes.
investigative where observation, description are employed,
explanation and probability, that is, those investigations related
with the social sciences.