Information Systems and Costing Techniques
Information Systems and Costing Techniques
A
1 ANALYSIS
NETWORKS
Introduction
Information Systems
An information system is a combination of hardware, software and
communications capability, where information is collected, processed and
stored.
Information Requirements at Different Levels
Types of TPS:
3. Big Data: Big Data refers to the mass of data that society creates each
year, extending far beyond the traditional financial and enterprise data
created by companies. Sources of Big Data include social networking
sites, internet search engines, and mobile devices. These extremely
large collections of data that may be analysed to reveal patterns, trends
and associations.
Benefits:
Marketing: Gaining insights about customer preferences through
browsing histories of pages visited and purchases made.
Competitive Strength: Through using the information to identify and
respond to changes in customer preferences earlier than competitors
Operational Efficiency: For example, better forecasting of sales volumes
will improve inventory management and reduce wastage (e.g. of
perishable goods).
Risks:
Cost: It is expensive to establish the hardware and analytical software
needed, though these costs are continually falling
Time and Staff Resource: Analysing which data is particularly
important for the organisation, and the impact it may have on the
organisation, may be very time consuming.
Loss And Theft of Data: Companies might find themselves open to civil
legal action if data were stolen and individuals suffered as a
consequence.
Security of Confidential Information
A number of procedures can be used to ensure the security of highly
confidential information.
06
PART COSTING
B TECHNIQUES
ACTIVITY BASED COSTING (ABC)
Activity based costing is an extension of absorption costing specifically
considering what causes each type of overhead category to occur, i.e., what
the ‘cost drivers’ are. Each type of overhead is absorbed using a different
basis depending on the cost driver.
Absorption Costing
Traditional absorption costing uses a single basis for absorbing all
overheads into cost units. Traditional absorption costing systems:
Steps
1. Identify major activities within each department which create costs.
2. Create a cost pool for each activity.
3. Determine what causes the cause of each activity (Cost driver).
4. Calculate the absorption rate for each cost driver.
5. Calculate the total overhead cost for manufacturing each product.
6. Calculate the overhead cost per unit.
Cost Driver
Any factor, reason or base which generates overheads cost.
Reason which increases or decreases overheads.
Cost Pool
Total costs that accumulate for each activity for the company as a whole.
Required:
A. Calculate the total cost for each product on the assumption that the
company continues to absorb overheads on a machine hour basis.
B. Calculate the cost per unit using the ABC system.
C. Compare the cost per unit of each product using ABC with the cost
per unit using absorption costing, and identify the main reasons for
the difference.
Advantages of Activity Based Costing
Accurate cost calculation (fair distribution of overheads).
Accurate selling price.
ABC recognises the complexity of modern manufacturing by the use
of multiple cost drivers.
ABC can be applied to both production and non-production overheads.
Better cost control.
5 MCQ
TARGET COSTING
Illustration 1
Exclusive Motors is designing a new version of its luxury car, the Z series. The
vehicle will be launched next year. It is expected to have a lifecycle of 10
years.
The marketing department believes that the car could be sold for a price of
$40,000 each. 100,000 cars would be manufactured and sold each year.
A risk with target costing is that cost reductions may affect the perceived
value of the product.
Illustration 2
A car manufacturer wants to calculate a target cost for a new car, the price
of which will be set at $17,950. The company requires an 8% profit margin on
sales.
5 MCQ
LIFECYCLE COSTING
Target costing emphasises cost control through good product design and
production planning. There might also be costs incurred after a product is
sold, such as warranty costs and plant decommissioning.
Therefore, to profit from a product, its total revenue must exceed its total
cost, whether these costs are incurred before, during or after the product is
produced. This is the concept of life-cycle costing.
Illustration 1
5 MCQ
THROUGHPUT ACCOUNTING
Background
There are two aspects of modern manufacturing that you need to be
familiar with;
Throughput Accounting
Throughput accounting aims to maximise the best use of scarce resource
in a JIT environment.
Illustration 1
Throughput per
Return per factory hour = unit
Production time on bottleneck resource
(The total factory cost is the operational expense [labour plus overhead] of
the organisation.)
Interpretation of TPAR
Criticisms of TPAR
It concentrates on the short-term.
It is more difficult to apply throughput accounting concepts to the
longer-term, when all costs are variable, and vary with the volume of
production and sales or another cost driver.
In the longer-term an ABC approach might be more appropriate for
measuring and controlling performance.
Illustration 2
Required: Calculate the Throughput Accounting Ratio for all the products?
5 MCQ
ENVIRONMENTAL ACCOUNTING
Introduction
Traditional management accounting systems do not provide any analysis
of environmental costs. Management is often unaware of them. The
implication of this is that:
Management cannot do enough to manage environmental activities.
Management accounts underestimate the costs of poor environmental
behaviour and underestimate the benefits of good environmental
behaviour.
The values and costs of each of these three flows are then calculated.
4. Lifecycle Costing
Within the context of environmental accounting, lifecycle costing is a
technique which requires the full environmental costs, arising from
production of a product to be taken account across its whole lifecycle.
Under this method of environmental cost accounting, environmental
costs for a product are considered from the design stage of the product
right up to the end-of-life costs, such as decommissioning and removal.
Advantages of Environmental Costing
Better environmental cost control.
Facilitates the quantification of cost savings from "environmentally-
friendly" measures.
Reduces the potential for cross-subsidisation of environmentally
damaging products.
Better/fairer product costs.
Improved pricing so that products that have the biggest environmental
impact reflect this by having higher selling prices.
5 MCQ
PART DECISION MAKING
C TECHNIQUES
OR
Breakeven Point
The breakeven point is when total revenue equals total costs.
At breakeven point contribution is equal to fixed costs as there is no profit
or loss made.
Breakeven Units = Total Fixed Cost/Contribution Per Unit
OR
Illustration 1
Details of a product are as follows:
Selling price per unit = $15
Variable cost per unit = $12
Total fixed cost = $36,000
Required: Calculate break-even point?
Illustration 2
Details of a product are as follows:
Selling price per unit = $15
Variable cost per unit = $12
Total fixed cost = $36,000
Targeted Profit = $21,000
Required: Calculate the sales volume required to achieve the target
profit?
Margin of Safety
Margin of safety is measure of how far away a company is from its break-
even point.
Illustration 3
Details of a product are as follows:
Selling price per unit = $15
Variable cost per unit = $12
Total fixed cost = $36,000
Total budgeted units = 20,000 units
Required: Calculate margin of safety?
Graphs
Single Product Analysis
Illustration 5
TIM produces and sells two products, the MK and the KL. The organization
expects to sell 1 MK for every 2 KLs and have monthly sales revenue of
$150,000. The MK has a C/S ratio of 20% whereas the KL has a C/S ratio of
40%. Budgeted monthly fixed costs are $30,000.
Illustration 6
BJS Ltd produces and sells the following three products:
Product X Y Z
Selling price per unit $16 $20 $10
Variable cost per unit $5 $15 $7
Contribution per unit $11 $5 $3
Budgeted sales volume 50,000 units 10,000 units 100,000 units
The company expects the fixed costs to be $450,000 for the coming year.
Assume that sales arise throughout the year in a constant mix.
Required:
a) Calculate the weighted average C/S ratio for the products?
b) Calculate the break-even sales revenue required?
c) Calculate the margin of safety required?
d) Calculate the revenue required to achieve a target profit of $900,000?
e) Draw a multi-product profit-volume chart assuming the budget is
achieved?
Multi Product Profit Volume Chart
Limitations/Assumptions of Cost-Volume-Profit
Analysis
Either a single product is being sold or, if there are multiple
products, these are sold in a constant mix.
Fixed costs remain constant over the 'relevant range'.
Selling price per unit and variable cost per unit constant.
Contribution per unit constant at all levels of activity.
CS ratio remain constant at all levels of activity.
The total cost and total revenue functions are linear.
Multiple Choice Questions
1.
Morava Co produces a product which has a variable cost of $28 and a
selling price of $39. Budgeted sales and production volumes for the next
month are 18,000 units. Budgeted fixed costs are $121,000 per month.
A. 1,000
B. 10,000
C. 11,000
D. 12,000
2.
Dilnot Co produces and sells rucksacks and shoulder bags in a standard
mix of 3 rucksacks to 2 shoulder bags.
What is the breakeven point in sales revenue (to the nearest $100)?
A. $3,640,500
B. $3,650,300
C. $3,720,000
D. $3,758,000
3.
Cummings Co manufactures a single product, which it sells for $5. Its
annual sales revenue is $80,000 and its annual fixed costs are $25,000. Its
contribution/sales ratio is 40%.
A. 21.9%
B. 28.0%
C. 47.9%
D. 92.0%
4.
The following statements have been made about cost-volume-profit (CVP)
analysis.
A. 1 and 2
B. 3 and 4
C. 1 and 3
D. 2 and 4
5.
The following profit-volume chart for three products, has been prepared:
Which TWO of the following statements about the above chart are
correct?
The Alka Hotel is open for 365 days a year and has a 70% budgeted
occupancy rate. Fixed costs are budgeted at $600,000 a year and accrue
evenly throughout the year.
During the first quarter (Q1) of the year the room occupancy rates are
significantly below the levels expected at other times of the year with the
Alka Hotel expecting to sell 900 occupied room nights during Q1. Options to
improve profitability are being considered, including closing the hotel for
the duration of Q1 or adopting one of two possible projects as follows:
The theatre tickets cost the Alka Hotel $95 a pair. The Alka Hotel's fixed costs
specific to this project (marketing and administration) are budgeted at
$20,000.
The hotel's management believes that the 'theatre package' will have no
effect on their usual Q1 customers, who are all business travellers and who
have no interest in theatre tickets, but will still require their usual rooms.
Project 2 – Restaurant
There is scope to extend the Alka Hotel and create enough space to operate
a restaurant for the benefit of its guests. The annual costs, revenues and
volumes for the combined restaurant and hotel are illustrated in the
following graph:
Note: The graph does not include the effect of the 'theatre package' offer.
Required:
a. Using the current annual budgeted figures, and ignoring the two
proposed projects, calculate the breakeven number of occupied
room nights and the margin of safety as a percentage? (4 marks)
d. Using the graph, quantify and comment upon the financial effect of
Project 2 on the Alka Hotel?
Material
Labour hours
Machine hours
Rank in order.
Illustration 1
Product A Product B
Selling price $14 $11
Variable cost per unit $8 $7
Labour hours per unit 2 hours 1 hour
Maximum sales demand 3000 units 5000 units
Linear Programming
If there are multiple limiting factors, linear programming approach is used.
The graphical method can be used when there are just two products (or
service).
The steps involved are as follows.
Define variables
Formulate the objective functions
Formulate the constraint
Draw the graph identifying the feasible region
Find the optimal production plan
Illustration 2
A company produces two products in three departments. Details are shown
below regarding the time per unit required in each department, the
available hours in each department and the contribution per unit of each
product:
There is unlimited demand for Product X, but demand for Product Y is limited
to 600 units per annum.
Non-negativity constraint: 0 ≤ x, y.
8x + 10y = 11000
If X = 0, Y = 11,000 + 10 so Y = 1,100
Likewise, if Y = 0, X = 11,000 + 8 so X = 1,375
If X = 0, Y = 900 and
If Y = 0, X = 2,250
If X = 0, Y = 2,000 and
If Y = 0, X = 1,000
To draw the final constraint (maximum demand for Product Y), we draw
the line y = 600 for any value of x:
If X = 0, Y = 600 and
If X = 100, Y = 600
Step 5: Finding the optimal production plan
2 point
Point X Y C = 4x + 8y
A 0 0 (4x0) + (8x0) = 0
B 0 600 (4x0) + (8x600) = 4,800
C
D
E
Shadow Price (or Dual Prices)
The additional contribution that would be generated if one more unit of the
resource were to become available.
It is the maximum premium the company could pay for one extra unit of
the binding constraint.
Slack
If a resource is not binding at the optimal point, it will have slack.
Maximum capacity is not utilised.
The constraint is a 'less than or equal to' constraint.
Quone Qutwo
$ $
Selling price 20.00 18.00
Direct material ($2.00 per kg) 6.00 5.00
Direct labour 4.00 3.00
Variable overhead 2.00 1.50
12.00 9.50
Contribution per unit 8.00 8.50
The maximum demand for these products is 500 units per week for Quone,
and an unlimited number of units per week for Qutwo.
a) $nil
b) $2.00 per kg
c) $2.66 per kg
d) $3.40 per kg
2.
A company has the following production planned for the next four weeks.
The figures reflect the full capacity level of operations. Planned output is
equal to the maximum demand per product.
The direct labour force is threatening to go on strike for two weeks out of
the coming four. This means that only 2,160 hours will be available for
production, rather than the usual 4,320 hours.
3.
A jewellery company makes rings (R) and necklaces (N).
The resources available to the company have been analysed and two
constraints have been identified:
Labour time 3R + 2N ≤ 2,400 hours Machine time 0.5R + 0.4N ≤ 410 hours
A. (1) only
B. (2) only
C. Both (1) and (2)
D. Neither (1) nor (2)
4.
Cornaur Products uses a scarce material in the manufacture of four
products. Data per unit of each product is shown below:
Y W S E
Selling price $38.72 $29.86 $41.17 $31.25
Variable cost $30.58 $25.56 $34.19 $20.53
Material input (kg) 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.6
5.
Bruno Co manufactures two products, the x and the y. The following
constraints apply:
Materials: 4x + 7y ≤ 7,000 kg
Labour time: 8x + 6y ≤ 10,000 hours
x, y > 0
CSC Co's projected manufacture costs and selling prices for the three
products are as follows:
Cokes Cookies Shakes
Per unit $ $ $
Selling price 5.40 4.90 6.00
Costs:
Ingredients: Singa ($1.20 per gram) 0.30 0.60 1.20
Ingredients: Betta ($1.50 per gram) 0.75 0.30 1.50
Other ingredients 0.25 0.45 0.90
Labour ($10 per hour) 1.00 1.20 0.80
Variable overheads 0.50 0.60 0.40
Contributions 2.60 1.75 1.20
For each of the three products, the expected demand for the next month is
11,200 cakes, 9,800 cookies and 2,500 shakes.
The total fixed costs for the next month are $3,000.
CSC Co has just found out that the supply of Betta is going to be limited to
12,000 grams next month. Prior to this, CSC Co had signed a contract with a
leading chain of gyms, Encompass Health, to supply it with 5,000 shakes
each month, at a discounted price of $5.80 per shake, starting immediately.
The order for the 5,000 shakes is not included in the expected demand
levels above.
Required:
a) Assuming that CSC Co keeps to its agreement with Encompass
Health, calculate the shortage of Betta, the resulting optimum
production plan and the total profit for next month? (6 marks)
One month later, the supply of Betta is still limited and CSC Co is considering
whether it should breach its contract with Encompass Health so that it can
optimise its profits.
Required:
b) Discuss whether CSC Co should breach the agreement with
Encompass Health?
Note: No further calculations are required. (4 marks)
Several months later, the demand for both cakes and cookies has increased
significantly to 20,000 and 15,000 units per month respectively. However,
CSC Co has lost the contract with Encompass Health and, after suffering
from further shortages of supply of Betta, Singa and of its labour force, CSC
Co has decided to stop making shakes at all. CSC Co now needs to use
linear programming to work out the optimum production plan for cakes and
cookies for the coming month. The variable 'x' is being used to represent
cakes and the variable 'y' to represent cookies.
Explain what the line labelled 'C = 2.6x + 1.75y' on the graph is and what the
area represented by the points OABCD means? (4 marks)
Explain how the optimum production plan will be found using the line
labelled 'C = 2.6x + 1.75y' and identify the optimum point from the graph?
(2 marks)
Explain what a slack value is and identify, from the graph, where slack
will occur as a result of the optimum production plan? (4 marks)
(Total: 20 marks)
PRICING DECISIONS
Factors Affecting Pricing Decisions
$/Units
Direct production costs X
Absorption of overheads
Variable production overhead X
Fixed production overhead X
Variable non-production overhead X
Fixed non-production overhead X
Full cost X
Mark-up percentage X
Selling price X
Marginal Revenue
The increase in total revenue resulting from selling one additional unit of a
product or service.
Marginal Cost
The increase in total cost from producing and selling one additional unit of
a product or service.
Demand Function
Establish linear relationship between price (P) and quantity demanded (Q).
P = a – bQ
Where:
P = Price
a = Price at which demand would be nil.
Change in Price
b=
Change in Quantity
Q = Quantity demanded
To find the marginal revenue:
MR = a − 2bQ
Illustration 1
Alex owns the only bakery in a small town and is the only supplier of
doughnuts. Based on an analysis of sales over the past 12 months, Alex has
observed:
If the price of a doughnut is $5.00, demand is zero
For every 50 cents the price of a single doughnut decreases by, the
number of doughnuts Alex sells increases by 20
P = 500 - 2.5Q
Where P is the price in cents and Q is daily demand in units.
Alex could use this equation in several ways. For example, if Alex was
considering charging $1.50 (150 cents) per donut the equation could be
used to calculate demand at this price.
To solve the equation, Q equals 140. This shows that at a price of $1.50 (150
cents) Alex would expect to sell 140 doughnuts.
Tabular Approach
Price (cents) Quantity demanded Total cost (costs)
460 1 385
420 2 570
380 3 749
360 4 932
325 5 1,100
302 6 1,280
269 7 1,467
244 8 1,656
212 9 1,847
180 10 2,030
y = a + bx
Where the product is new and different and has little direct
competition.
Where products have a short life cycle, and there is a need to recover
their development costs quickly and make a profit.
Where the strength of demand and the sensitivity of demand to price
are unknown.
A firm with liquidity problems may use market-skimming in order to
generate high cash flows early on.
Price Discrimination
Price discrimination involves setting different prices for a product or service
in different markets. Customers in some markets may be willing to pay
higher prices than customers in other markets, so price discrimination aims
to achieve the maximum price in each available market.
Loss Leader
A loss leader is a product that is sold at a loss to attract customers who will
then buy other products. Loss leaders may be used in complementary
pricing, where one product (e.g. the printer) is sold at a loss to lock
customers into buying another (e.g. ink cartridges).
Going-Rate Pricing
This simply means charging the prevailing market price. This approach
might be used in competitive markets (i.e., where charging above market
price would lead to a loss of the majority of customers and selling below
market price would not bring additional customers).
Q2 - Q1
% Change in demand (Q) Q1
PED at point 1 =
% Change in Price (P) P2 - P1
P1
PED > 1 (elastic) increasing the price may lead to reduced revenue.
Future
Sunk cost is not a relevant cost. That have already been incurred.
Incremental
Any cost or benefit that will happen anyway, regardless of the decision
cannot be a relevant cost.
Cashflows
It must be a cost (or benefit) that results in cashflow.
Depreciation costs and overhead absorption cost cannot be a relevant
cost.
Opportunity costs
Opportunity costs
An opportunity cost is the benefit foregone by choosing one opportunity
instead of the next best alternative.
Irrelevant Costs Include:
Depreciation
Sunk costs
Unavoidable costs
Committed costs
Illustration 1
A new project requires the use of an existing machine that would otherwise
be sold.
Required: What is the relevant cost (if any) if using the machine in the
project?
Illustration 2
A company which manufactures and sells one single product is currently
operating at 85% of full capacity, producing, 102,000 units per month. The
current total monthly costs of production amount to $330,000, of which
$75,000 are fixed and are expected to remain unchanged for all levels of
activity up to full capacity. A new potential customer has expressed interest
in taking regular monthly delivery of 12,000 units at a price $2.80 per unit. All
existing production is sold each month at a price of $3.25 per unit. If the new
business is accepted, existing sales are expected to fall by 2 units for every
15 units sold to the new customer.
Closure costs
Reorganisation costs
Pre separation (joint) costs are not relevant. Only include post split-off
aspects.
Make or Buy Decision
When deciding whether to outsource the manufacture of a particular
component organisation will obviously want to calculate the financial
affect.
Illustration 3
Geranium Co makes a product which requires two sequential operations
on the same machine. Operation 1 takes 15 minutes per unit and Operation
2 takes 30 minutes per unit.
The machine is operating at full capacity. The material cost of the product
is $12 per unit. Instead of carrying out Operation 1, Geranium could buy in
components, for $15 per unit. This would increase production capacity
because the machine has to deal with only Operation 2.
Labour and variable overheads are incurred at a rate of $16 per machine
hour and the finished products sell for $30 per unit.
MCQ 5 (Pending)
Constructed Response Questions
The Telephone Co (T Co)
The Telephone Co (T Co) is a company specialising in the provision of
telephone systems for commercial clients. There are two parts to the
business:
A. One of the company’s salesmen has already been to visit Push Co, to
give them a demonstration of the new system, together with a
complimentary lunch, the costs of which totalled $400.
B. The installation is expected to take one week to complete and would
require three engineers, each of whom is paid a monthly salary of
$4,000. The engineers have just had their annually renewable contract
renewed with T Co. One of the three engineers has spare capacity to
complete the work, but the other two would have to be moved from
contract X in order to complete this one. Contract X generates a
contribution of $5 per engineer hour. There are no other engineers
available to continue with Contract X if these two engineers are taken
off the job. It would mean that T Co would miss its contractual
completion deadline on Contract X by one week. As a result, T Co would
have to pay a one-off penalty of $500. Since there is no other work
scheduled for their engineers in one week’s time, it will not be a problem
for them to complete Contract X at this point.
C. T Co’s technical advisor would also need to dedicate eight hours of his
time to the job. He is working at full capacity, so he would have to work
overtime in order to do this. He is paid an hourly rate of $40 and is paid
for all overtime at a premium of 50% above his usual hourly rate.
D. Two visits would need to be made by the site inspector to approve the
completed work. He is an independent contractor who is not employed
by T Co, and charges Push Co directly for the work. His cost is $200 for
each visit made.
E. T Co’s system trainer would need to spend one day at Push Co delivering
training. He is paid a monthly salary of $1,500 but also receives
commission of $125 for each day spent delivering training at a client’s
site.
F. 120 telephone handsets would need to be supplied to Push Co. The
current cost of these is $18.20 each, although T Co already has 80
handsets in inventory. These were bought at a price of $16.80 each. The
handsets are the most popular model on the market and frequently
requested by T Co’s customers.
G. Push Co would also need a computerised control system called ‘Swipe
2’. The current market price of Swipe 2 is $10,800, although T Co has an
older version of the system, ‘Swipe 1’, in inventory, which could be
modified at a cost of $4,600. T Co paid $5,400 for Swipe 1 when it ordered
it in error two months ago and has no other use for it. The current market
price of Swipe 1 is $5,450, although if Push Co tried to sell the one, they
have, it would be deemed to be ‘used’ and therefore only worth $3,000.
H. 1,000 metres of cable would be required to wire up the system. The cable
is used frequently by T Co and it has 200 metres in inventory, which cost
$1.20 per metre. The current market price for the cable is $1.30 per metre.
You should assume that there are four weeks in each month and that the
standard working week is 40 hours long.
Uncertainty
The potential outcomes of a decision that are not known in advance.
Clearly, associated probability cannot be known either.
This formula represents the sum (Σ) of each possible outcome (Xi)
multiplied by its probability of occurring (p(x i)).
The decision rule would be to choose the outcome with the highest EV.
The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes must equal to 1.
Illustration 1
When an unbiased six-sided die is thrown, each side has an equal chance
(1/6) of being obtained. The expected value of throwing a die many times
is calculated as:
Value Probability Product
xi p(xi) xi p(xi)
1 1/6 1/6
2 1/6 2/6
3 1/6 3/6
4 1/6 4/6
5 1/6 5/6
6 1/6 6/6
Total Σ (Xi p(Xi)) 21/6
21
The EV is therefore or 3½
6
What this means is that if the dice is thrown many times (many iterations
of the event), the average value of the throws would be 3½.
Since the expected value shows the long run average outcome of a
decision which is repeated time and time again, it is a useful decision rule
for a risk neutral decision maker.
Illustration 2
A baker sells a cake that costs $0.10 to make for $0.30 each. At the end of a
day any cakes not sold must be thrown away. On any particular day the
level of demand follows the following probability distribution:
Order Size
Demand 20 40 60
20 (Pr 0.3)
(Outcomes are computed in this part of
40 (Pr 0.5)
the table)
60 (Pr 0.2)
Required:
Illustration 3
The baker in Illustration 2 opts to buy a daily forecast which tells him in
advance of placing the day's order what demand for that day will be with
certainty.
3. Decision Trees
Decision making often involves multi-stage decisions. At each stage in
the decision-making process, the decision maker has to choose
between two or more decisions. The possible outcomes of each decision
will be specified, along with the associated probability.
Having made the first decision, a second decision or possibly even more
decisions may be required.
Action a
Action b
Action c
Chance fork (outcome point) − this occurs where there are several possible
outcomes. Normally, for each decision taken, there will be two or more
possible outcomes.
Outcome B
Probability P
Probability Q
Outcome A
The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes (branch) at each chance fork
must equal 1 or 100%.
If the company does not invest in the machine, next years' profits will be:
At decision point A:
Either invest: Expected outcome is $210,000 (260,000 - 50,000).
Or do not invest: Expected profit is $220,000.
1. Risk seekers are those who seek the maximum possible return
regardless of the probability of it occurring. As optimists, they consider
the best-case scenario.
3. Risk averse are those who dislike risk and so make decisions based
on the worst possible outcome.
Select the option that gives the highest EV. Those who
use EVs may be described as risk neutral (i.e. they are
EXPECTED VALUE
not concerned with the amount of risk associated with
(EV)
each option only the amount of the expected return).
Illustration 5
From the payoff table given below:
State of the market Probability Project 1 Project 2 Project 3
Diminishing 0.4 100 0 180
Static 0.3 200 500 190
Expanding 0.3 1,000 600 200
5. Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis takes each uncertain factor in turn, and calculates
the change that would be necessary in that factor before the original
decision is reversed. Typically, it involves posing 'what-if' questions. By
using this technique, it is possible to establish which estimates
(variables) are more critical than others in affecting a decision.
Illustration 6
A manager is considering a make v buy decision based on the following
estimates:
Solution
Step 1: What is the original decision?
6. Simulation
Simulation is a technique which allows more than one variable to
change at the same time. Most real-life problems are complex as there
is more than one uncertain variable. Models can be generated which
"simulate" the real-world environment within which the decision must
be made.
Advantages:
It overcomes the limitations of sensitivity analysis by examining the
effects of all possible combinations of variables and their realizations.
It therefore provides more information about the possible outcomes
and their relative probabilities. This helps in highlighting implausible
assumptions and detecting bias.
It is useful for problems which cannot be solved analytically by other
means.
Disadvantages:
It is not a technique for making a decision, only for getting more
information about the possible outcomes.
It can be very time consuming without a computer.
It could prove exit relies on reliable estimates of the probability
distributions of the underlying variables.
Pensive in designing and running the simulation on a computer.
Focus Groups
Much of the uncertainty which companies face in the real world relates to
new products and whether they will be successful. To reduce this
uncertainty, focus groups may be used prior to the launch of a product.
A group of people are asked to give their opinion about a new product
or service. The discussion takes place in an interactive environment in
which participants are free to give their opinions and discuss them with
other members of the group.
Prior to the meeting, the members of the group may be screened to
ensure they belong to the target market to which the product is aimed.
Market Research
Market research is the systematic gathering of information about
customers, competitors and the market. The type of information gathered
in market research seeks to answer the following types of question:
Who are the customers?
Where are they located?
What quantity and quality do they want?
What is the best time to sell?
What is the long-term price?
Who are the competitors?
Market research can be used to help companies make decisions about the
development and marketing of new products. The earlier the market
research is conducted in the development of a product, the better, from a
risk point of view.
PART BUDGETARY SYSTEMS &
D TYPES OF BUDGETS
Budget
A budget is a quantified plan of action for a forthcoming accounting period.
Objectives of Budgeting
Ensure the achievement of the organisation’s objectives.
Helps in planning
Co-ordinate activities
Provides a system of control
Authorising and delegating
Evaluation of performance (provide a framework for responsibility
accounting).
Communicating of ideas and plans
Motivate employees to improve their performance (budgets are
targets).
The planning and control cycle
--------
Implement the long-term plan in
Step 5
the form of the annual budget
Control
process
Strategic Planning:
Long term
Prepared by senior managers
It looks at the whole organization and defines resource requirements.
Tactical Planning
Tactical planning is medium term.
It looks at the department/divisional level and specifies how to use
resources. For example, to train staff to deal with the challengers that
this new product presents.
It is prepared by lower-level managers within set guidelines of senior
managers.
Operational Planning
Operational planning is very short-term, very detailed and is mainly
concerned with control.
They will be prepared by managers at fairly low-level who have
practical, operational experience.
Approaches to Budgeting
Top down and bottom-up budgeting
Incremental budgeting
Zero-based budgeting (ZBB)
Fixed, Flexed, Flexible budgets
Rolling budget
Activity based budget
Feed-forward control
Disadvantages
Dissatisfaction and de-motivation.
Lack of understanding & incorporation of operational issues.
Budget setting exercise may not be adequately supported by lower-
level management.
Lack of initiative and creativity from lower management.
Bottom-Up Budgeting (Participative)
A budget system in which all budget holders are given the opportunity to
participate in setting their own budgets.
Advantages
Overcomes the problem of dissatisfaction and de-motivation by
involving lower-level managers.
Operational experience and knowledge are incorporated into the
budget.
Budget setting exercise may not be more supported by lower-level
management.
Allows for creativity from lower-level management.
Disadvantages
Strategic plans are less likely to be incorporated into budgets.
Reduced coordination.
May not create optimum usage of available resources.
Experience of senior managers may not be used to full potential.
Slower process.
Creates budgetary slack.
Incremental Budgets
An incremental budget starts with the previous period’s budget or actual
results and adds (or subtracts) an incremental amount to cover inflation
and other known changes.
Advantages of incremental Disadvantages of incremental
budgets budgets
(1) Quickest and easiest method. (1) Builds in previous problems and
inefficiencies.
(2) Suitable if the organisation is (4) Uneconomic activities may be
stable and historic figures are continued. E.g. the firm may
acceptable since only the continue to make a component
increment needs to be in-house when it might be
justified. cheaper to outsource.
(3) Managers may spend
unnecessarily to use up their
budgeted expenditure
allowances this year, thus
ensuring they get the same (or
a larger) budget next year.
Advantages
Inefficiencies can be identified and avoided.
It responds to changes in business environment.
Resource should be allocated efficiently and economically.
Disadvantages
Management needs to be skilled to implement ZBB
Managers may feel demotivated due to large time spends on
budgeting.
Rolling Budget
A budget which kept continuously up to date by adding another accounting
period when the earliest accounting period has been expired.
Advantages
There is always a budget that extends into the future
It forces management to reassess the budget regularly and to produce
budgets which are more up to date.
Disadvantages
Costly and time consuming.
Rolling budgets create uncertainty. Staff may feel that the “rules of the
game “keep changing and that targets are constantly changing.
Illustration
A company uses rolling budgeting and has a sales budget as follows:
Actual sales for Quarter 1 were $123,450. The adverse variance is fully
explained by competition being more intense than expected and growth
being lower than anticipated. The budget committee has proposed that the
revised assumption for sales growth should be 3% per quarter.
Update the budget as appropriate.
Q2-127,154
Q3-130,969
Q4-134,898
2.Q1-138,945
Activity Based Budget
Activity based budgets are based on a framework of activities, and cost
drivers are used as a basis for preparing budgets (Like activity-based
costing).
Advantages
It draws attention to the cost of overhead activities which can be large
proportion of total operating costs.
ABB can provide useful information in total quality management (TQM)
environment, by relating the cost of an activity to the level of service
provided.
Disadvantages
A considerable amount of time and effort might be needed to establish
the key activities and their cost drivers.
It may be difficult to identify clear individual responsibilities for
activities.
Feedback Control
Feedback control is defined as the measurement of difference between
planned outputs and actual outputs achieved and modifications to the
plans for the future required results.
Feed-Forward Control
Feed-forward control is control based on forecast results. In other words, if
forecast is bad, control action is taken by difference between budgeted and
forecasted results.
Beyond Budgeting
Beyond Budgeting is a budgeting model which proposes that
traditional budgeting should be abandoned. Adaptive management
processes should be used rather than fixed annual budgets. Traditional
annual plans tie managers to predetermined actions which are not
responsive to current situations.
Performance is monitored against world-class benchmarks and
competitors.
Benefits
Motivation: Rewards are team based which encourages cooperation
and helps achieve corporate goals.
Faster response to threats and opportunities.
Shift of focus: The use of external benchmarks can lead to
management focus on competitive success.
Challenges
Resistance to change
Resource constraints
Resistance by employees
Costs of implementation
Training
Lack of accounting information
Management time
Budget Systems and Uncertainty
Causes of uncertainty in the budgeting process include:
Customers
Inflation
Competitors
Employees
Unrest or disaster
Machine breakdown
Technological advances
Materials
(5 MCQ)
Constructed Response Question.
YUMI CO
Yumi Co owns a number of restaurants. It is a well-established company,
and its restaurants have gained a favourable reputation for the quality of
their meals.
Yumi Co’s restaurants are all set in rural locations, where there is limited
competition and this enabled them to develop a loyal customer base.
Restaurants design their own menus and décor to fit with the requirements
of their local market.
Yumi Co has been consistently profitable, however as is the case across the
restaurant industry, profit margins are quite low and there is still a constant
need for Yumi Co to monitor costs.
One of Yumi Co’s restaurants is located in the small town of Cowly. Cowly
has recently been the location for the filming of a popular television series
and visitor numbers to the town have increased significantly as a result.
Yumi Co’s restaurant in Cowly has noticed a similar increase in customer
numbers.
At the start of the current month a new restaurant opened in Cowly. The
manager of Yumi Co’s restaurant in Cowly has expressed concerns about
the impact this new competitor will have on their ability to achieve profit
targets for the rest of the year.
Budgets for all of Yumi Co’s restaurants are prepared by the head office. At
the start of each year, restaurant managers are given an annual budget,
which is split into months. At the end of each month, the manager receives
a statement comparing actual monthly performance against budget.
The statement for the Cowly restaurant for the most recent completed
month is as follows:
Actual Budget Variance
Number of customers 1,800 1,500
$ $ $
Revenue 87,300 75,000 12,300 F
Costs:
Food and drink 26,100 22,500 3,600 A
Staff wages 38,250 31,500 6,750 A
Heat, light and power 8,100 7,500 600 A
Rent, rates and other overheads 12,600 12,000 600 A
Profit 2,250 1,500 750 F
Notes:
1. Rent, rates and other overheads are apportioned to its restaurants by
Yumi Co’s head office, based on a fixed annual charge.
2. All other budgeted costs are treated as variable costs, based on the
expected number of customers.
Required:
a). (i) Prepare a flexed budget for the Cowly restaurant? (3 marks)
(ii) With reference to your answer from part (i), explain the main
weaknesses in the current monthly budget statements issued to the
restaurants as a basis for managing performance? (4 marks)
Control: the standard cost can be compared to the actual costs and
any differences (variance) investigated.
Planning: standard costing can help with budgeting.
Performance measurement: any differences between the standard
and the actual cost can be used as a basis for assessing the
performance of cost centre managers.
Assign cost to inventories of raw materials, work in progress and
finished goods – Inventory valuation.
Pricing - provide a cost basis on which to tender for contracts/set
sales prices.
Highlight opportunities for possible cost reductions.
Types of Standards
Ideal standards
Ideal standards are benchmarks that can only be met under perfect
operating conditions, without allowances for machine breakdowns,
interruptions to schedules, or idle time. These standards can be
demotivating for managers who realize their impractical achievement.
Evaluating variances becomes challenging, as it's unclear whether the
adverse variance is due to an unrealistic standard or inefficient
operations.
Attainable standards
Attainable standards are challenging yet realistically attainable under
current operational conditions, considering allowances for normal level
of machine breakdowns and workforce breaks. These standards
demand a high but reasonable level of efficiency. They are preferred
over ideal standards because they are achievable, providing
motivation for managers.
Current standards
Current standards are established based on existing working
conditions. However, a drawback is their limited ability to inspire
employee motivation for improvement in current working conditions,
potentially leaving employees without a sense of challenge or
incentive to enhance performance.
Basic standards
Basic standards, probably set some years ago, stay the same over
time and are often out of date. These standards are used to show
trends over time so that changes in material prices and labour rates,
for example, can be tracked. Since these standards do not change over
time, they are not useful for motivating employees because these
targets are too easy to achieve.
VARIANCE ANALYSIS
Variance analysis is the study of differences between what was planned or
budgeted and what actually happened. It helps understand why these
differences occurred, providing insights into how well financial plans and
operations are working.
If the actual results are better than expected, the variance is Favourable
(F). If the actual results are worse than expected, the variance is Adverse
(A).
Material Variances
The materials total variance is the difference between the actual cost of
direct material and the standard material cost of actual production (flexed
budget).
(SP – AP) x AQ
SP x AQ – AP x AQ
(SQ – AQ) x SP
SQ x SP – AQ x SP
Example questions
Product X has a standard direct material cost as follows:
10 kilograms of material at $5 per kilogram = $50 per unit
Required: What are the material price and usage variances for July?
Labour Variances
The labour cost total variance is the difference between the actual direct
labour cost and the standard labour cost of the actual production (flexed
budget).
Labour Rate Variance
The labour rate variance arises when the amount paid per labour hour
differs from the amount budgeted to be paid per labour hour in a budget
period.
(SR – AR) x AH
SR x AH – AR x AH
(SH – AH) x SR
SH x SR – AH x SR
Example questions
The standard direct labour cost of product X is as follows:
2 hours of labour at $5 per hour = $10 per unit of product X
During the period, 1000 Units of products X were made, and the direct labour
cost of labour was $8,900 for 2,300 hours of work.
Required: Calculate the following variances?
A company expected to produce 200 units of its product in 20X3. In fact, 260
units were produced. The standard labour cost per unit was $70 (10 hours
at a rate of $7 per hour). The actual labour cost was $18,600 and the labour
force worked 2,200 hours although they were paid for 2,300 hours.
Required:
a) What is the direct labour rate variance for the company in 20X3?
b) What is the direct labour efficiency variance for the company in 20X3?
Variable OH Variances
This is the difference between standard variable overheads for actual
production (flexed budget) and the actual variable overheads.
During the period, 1,000 units of product X were made, and the total variable
overhead cost was $8,900 for 2,300 hours of work.
Required: Calculate the following variances?
Fixed OH Variances
Two possible FOH variances arise:
The expenditure variance compares the actual fixed cost with the
original budget. If the company uses marginal costing, this is the only
variance which is calculated.
If the company uses absorption costing, a second variance is
calculated, called the volume variance, this is due to making more or
fewer units than was expected.
Example questions
Suppose that a company plans to produce 1,000 units of product E during
August 20X3. The expected time to produce a unit of E is five hours, and the
budgeted fixed overhead is $20,000. The standard fixed overhead cost per
unit of product E will therefore be as follows:
Sales Variances
Sales volume variance
Sales volume variance is the measure of change in profit/contribution as a
result of the difference between actual and budgeted sales quantity.
(ASP – SSP) x AU
Example questions
Suppose that a company budgets to sell 8,000 units of product J for $12 per
unit. The standard full cost per unit is $7. Actual sales were 7,700 units, at
$12.50 per unit.
Causes of Variances
Material Variance
Variance Favourable Adverse
Material price Poorer quality materials Higher quality materials
Discounts given for Change to a more
buying in bulk expensive supplier
Change to a cheaper Unexpected price increase
supplier encountered
Incorrect budgeting Incorrect budgeting
Material usage Higher quality materials Poorer quality materials
More efficient use of Less experienced staff using
material more materials
Change is product Change in product
specification Specification
Incorrect budgeting Incorrect budgeting
Labour Variance
Variance Favourable Adverse
Labour rate Lower skilled staff Higher skilled staff
Cut in overtime/bonus Increase in overtime/
bonus
Incorrect budgeting Incorrect budgeting
Unforeseen wage
increase
Labour efficiency Higher skilled staff Lower skilled staff
Improved staff Fall in staff motivation
motivation
Incorrect budgeting Incorrect budgeting
Variable OH Variance
Variance Favourable Adverse
Var. o/h Unexpected saving in Unexpected increase
expenditure cost of services in the cost of services
More economic use of Less economic use of
services services
Incorrect budgeting Incorrect budgeting
Var. o/h efficiency As for labour efficiency As for labour efficiency
Fixed OH Variance
Variance Favourable Adverse
Fixed o/h expenditure Decrease in price Increase in price
Seasonal effects Seasonal effects
Fixed o/h volume Increase in production Decrease in
volume production Volume
Increase in demand Decrease in demand
Change is productivity Production lost
of labour through strikes
Fixed o/h capacity Hours worked higher Hours worked lower
than budget than budget
Fixed o/h efficiency As for labour efficiency As for labour efficiency
Interdependence Between Variances
Sometimes a variance in one area will be related to a variance in another.
Operating Statements
An operating statement is a statement or schedule that summarises all the
variances for a budget period and reconciles, or compares, the budgeted
profit with the actual profit for that period.
The standard cost of a product predicts the quantity of materials used, but
actual production costs may differ in a few ways.
Where:
A: 5 kg at $2 per kg 10
30
B: 10 kg at $3 per kg
40
Rates of wastage.
Percentage of deliveries on time.
Customer satisfaction ratings.
Average cost of input calculations.
Average cost of outputs.
Detailed timesheets.
Average prices achieved for finished products.
Yield percentage calculations or output to input conversion rates.
$
Material X 2kg @ $3 6
Material Y 1kg @ $2 2
3kg 8
The actual production was 5,000 units and the materials used were:
b. Materials price;
c. Materials mix;
d. Materials yield;
e. Materials usage.
Sales Mix and Quantity Variances
Where the company sells more than one product, the budget will include
the budgeted quantity of each product sold. The actual sales can be
compared with the budget, and the sales volume variance calculated. The
overall sales volume variance can be analysed into two further categories:
The sales mix variance compares the actual quantities of goods sold
to the actual quantities sold at the standard mix. It shows the effect on
contribution or profit of selling a different "mix" to the standard. If the
products have different margins, this will affect profits.
The sales quantity variance compares the actual quantity (units) of
goods sold in the standard mix with the budgeted quantity of goods
sold in the standard mix.
Where:
A company sells three related products, Q, P and R. The budgeted sales mix
is 50% for Q and 25% for each of product’s P and R. The current period budget
and actual sales are:
Products
Budget Q P R
Unit sales 200 100 100
Price $20 $25 $30
Contribution $3 $4 $6
Actual
Unit sales 180 150 170
Price $22 $22 $26
Required: Calculate the sales price, sales mix contribution variance and
sales quantity variances?
The sales quantity variance shows the actual quantity of goods sold against
the budget. An adverse variance may be due to poor economic conditions
or a new competitor. This variance identifies factors which affect sales of all
the products.
Inter-relationships
A fall in selling prices for products would lead to an adverse price
variance. However, if it also leads to higher demand for the products,
the volume variance would be favourable.
An adverse sales mix variance may be due to customers switching to
cheaper ranges or brands as these may be considered better value. If
these "better value" products attract customers from other products
too, this will lead to a favourable quantity variance.
PLANNING AND OPERATIONAL VARIANCES
Revision of Budgets and Standards
At the end of a budget period, before comparing an organization's actual
performance with the budget, revisions may occur to consider unforeseen
changes in the environment. This is because managers are evaluated
based on their performance relative to the budget, and using an inaccurate
budget is deemed unfair.
If the actual environment differs from what was anticipated when the
original standard was set; or
Even if the environment has not changed, the benefit of hindsight shows
that an unrealistic standard was used (e.g. ideal standard).
Where:
Where:
AH – Actual hours
Where:
Illustration 1
KSO budgeted to sell 10,000 units of a new product during 20X0. The
budgeted sales price was $10 per unit, and the variable cost $3 per unit.
Actual sales in 20X0 were 12,000 units and variable costs of sales were
$30,000, but sales were only $5 per unit. With the benefit of hindsight, it is
realised that the budgeted sales price of $10 was hopelessly optimistic, and
a price of $4.50 per unit would have been much more realistic.
Required: Calculate planning and operational variances for sales price?
Illustration 2
PG budgeted sales for 20X8 were 5,000 units. The standard contribution is
$9.60 per unit. A recession in 20X8 means that the market for PG's products
declined by 5%. Actual sales were 4,500 units.
Required: Calculate planning and operational variances for sales
volume?
Illustration 3
Product X had a standard direct material cost in the budget of: 4 kg of
Material M at $5 per kg = $20 per unit. Due to disruption of supply of
materials to the market, the average market price for Material M during the
period was $5.50 per kg, and it was decided to revise the material standard
cost to allow for this. During the period, 6,000 units of Product X were
manufactured. They required 26,300 kg of Material M, which cost $139,390.
Required: Calculate;
Illustration 4
The standard hours per unit of production for a product is 5 hours. Actual
production for the period was 250 units and actual hours worked were 1,450
hours. The standard rate per hour was $10. Because of a shortage of skilled
labour, it has been necessary to use unskilled labour and it is estimated that
this will increase the time taken by 20%.
Required: Calculate the planning and operational efficiency variances?
Advantages and Disadvantages
ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES
Distinguishes between those Extra data requirements (e.g.
variances caused by bad market size).
planning or unavoidable
More time consuming.
factors and those which are
the result of operating factors. Managers may claim that all
Adverse operating variances adverse variances have
provide feedback control on external causes and all
processes which need favourable variances have
correcting. internal causes (i.e.
Planning variances can be manipulation of revised
used to update standards to standards).
current conditions. It is difficult to decide in
Motivation may improve if hindsight what the realistic
managers know they will only standard should have been.
be assessed on variances
under their control.
Methods
Simple Average Growth Models
Such models take average growth from the past, using the geometric
mean, and assume that this level of growth will continue in the future.
20X2 100
20X3 180
20X4 210
20X5 300
The more accurate growth rate is obtained using the geometric mean. This
is used to calculate average growth rates and is most commonly used in
business and finance to calculate growth rates in percentages.
Required:
a. Find the equation y = a + bx, where y is cost, and x is output level?
b. Forecast next month's cost if output is expected to be 4,500 units?
Time Series Analysis
Time series analysis can be applied to any figures that can vary over time,
including sales, production and costs.
Trend (T)
Seasonal variations (S)
Cyclical variations (C)
Random variations due to non-recurring influences (I)
Random variations are usually due to unforeseen events and situations, and
their degree of impact is difficult to predict. They may be favorable i.e.
positive in nature (e.g. unexpected bankruptcy of a competitor) or adverse
i.e. negative (e.g. damage to business due to freak weather conditions).
Y = T +S + C+1
Trend
The underlying long-term movement in values over time.
Illustration 2 Trend
Millstream Co manufactures three products - the red, blue and green.
Sales over recent years of the Products have been as follows:
Seasonal Variations
Short-term fluctuations in value, resulting from differing circumstances
affecting results at different times of the day, week, month, year, etc.
The weather (e.g. products selling better in hot rather than cold
weather);
Annual events (e.g. new year retail sales, “Black Friday”, etc.);
Customers having more time to shop (e.g. at the weekend rather than
week days).
Units
Spring 20X0 5,500
Summer 20X0 6,700
Autumn 20X0 5,600
Winter 20X0 4,700
Spring 20X1 5,900
Summer 20X1 7,200
Autumn 20X1 6,300
Winter 20X1 5,100
Spring 20X2 6,500
Summer 20X2 7,900
Autumn 20X2 7,000
Winter 20X2 5,700
The figures for each season in 20X1 and 20X2 are greater than the figures
for the season in the preceding year, showing an upward trend overall.
However, there are significant seasonal variations.
(E.g. Winter 20X2 is lower than Summer 20X0).
Cyclical Variations
Medium-term changes in values resulting from factors that repeat in
cycles. Cyclical variations are longer-term than seasonal variations.
Notes
1. Starting with the first available data calculate the 4-quarter moving
totals.
2. For each moving total in (1) calculate an average.
3. Calculate the average of each pair of averages and position at the
mid-point of its data points. This step is only necessary to take account
of the fact that a 4-quarter average is an even number.
When forecasting, seasonal variations are added back to the forecast trend,
to account for potential future seasonal conditions.
Additive Model
Having identified the trend, the next stage is to identify the seasonal
variations.
Using the equation:
Y=T+S+C+I
Y = T + S, therefore S=Y−T
The additive model assumes that the components of the time series are
independent. Most significantly this means that the trend will not affect the
seasonal variations.
Y=T×S×C×I
The other difference between the calculations using the additive and
multiplicative models is that the average seasonal index should sum to the
number of seasons in the time series (e.g. 12 for monthly variations, 4 for
quarterly variations).
Seasonally-Adjusted Data
Seasonally-adjusted (“deseasonalised”) data (i.e. actual data that has
been stripped of seasonal variations) can be used to explore the trend and
any remaining random component.
When actual data is given and seasonally-adjusted figures are required:
For the additive model: subtract positive variations from actual data
and add negative variations to actual data;
For the multiplicative model: divide actual data by the seasonal
variation factors.
Required: Calculate the seasonally adjusted figures for the four quarters?
*Please use the notes feature in the toolbar to help formulate your answer.
Forecasting Using Time Series Analysis
A trend can be used to predict future values, by extrapolating beyond the
historic values using a graph or an equation that describes the trend (e.g.
using regression as described in the next section).
Once a trend value has been calculated for a future period, it then needs to
be adjusted for seasonal variations using the additive or multiplicative
model.
Benefits
It enables future predictions based on past experience.
As compared to the high-low method, it ignores outlying data points.
Analyzing data into component parts facilitates more accurate
forecasting (than using trend alone).
Limitations
Data must be ordered over time (i.e. the point in time at which the
variable is measured must be known) in order to calculate the trend.
The reliability of a forecast depends on the amount of data on which
the trend and seasonal variations are based. The less data that is
available, the less reliable the forecast is likely to be.
Due to the “loss” of data in calculating moving averages, data needs
to be collected over a longer period for a meaningful trend to emerge
using the moving averages method.
Random factors may influence calculations, especially over fewer
data sets. If non-recurring influences are significant, forecasts may
not be reliable.
Extrapolation become less reliable the further into the future the
forecast is made, due to changes in trends, seasonal variations and
other (residual) factors.
Correlation
Correlation - the closeness of the relationship between two or more
variables.
If there is no pattern; the points appear to plot "randomly" (as in (d)). In (b),
there appears to be a linear relationship (close to a straight line) but the
relationship is "negative" (i.e. one variable is decreasing as the other is
increasing).
Correlation Coefficient
Exam Formula
The degree of correlation between two variables can be measured using
the correlation coefficient, r, which is given by the exam formula:
𝑛∑𝑥𝑦 − ∑𝑥∑𝑦
r=
√(𝑛∑𝑥 2 − (∑𝑥 )2 )(𝑛∑𝑦 2 − (∑𝑦)2 )
Where:
n=5
(5x8,405) -(100x405)
R= = 0.98
√(5 × 2,098 − 10,000) (5 × 33,791 − 164,025)
Interpretation of r
A high correlation between two variables does not necessarily justify the
conclusion that a causal relationship exists. There may be no direct
connection at all, in which case the correlation is described as "spurious
correlation".
This can occur for two reasons:
Regression
Correlation describes the closeness of a linear relationship between two
variables, but it does not allow forecasting of the value of one variable given
the value of the other.
To forecast variables, it is necessary to assume a linear relationship
between them that can then be described by the equation, y = a + bx,
where a is the point of intersection on the y-axis (i.e. when x = 0) and b is
the gradient of the line.
The values of a and b can be determined by:
Judging “by eye” a line that best fits the data plotted on a scatter
graph;
The least squares method of regression which computes the “line of
best fit” mathematically.
The formulae are provided in the exam as follows:
Illustration 13 Regression
Using the relevant data in Example 10:
n=5
Σx= 100
Σy= 405
Σxy = 8,405
Σx2 = 2,098
(Σx)2 = 10,000
5x8,405-(100x405)
b= = 3.1
5×2,098-10,000
So y = 19 + 3.1x
Benefits
Correlation analysis can indicate the existence of associations
between variables.
As least squares regression uses all pairs of data it is much more
accurate than the high-low method and less affected by extreme
values.
Correlation can be used in conjunction with regression analysis to
indicate the strength of the relationship indicated by the equation.
Limitations
A limited amount of data may reduce the reliability of forecasts
made. The reliability of the analysis and forecasts also depends on
the quality of the data.
Correlation is easily misinterpreted as high correlation does not
necessarily indicate a linear relationship and there may be no direct
connection between highly correlated variables.
Linear regression analysis is based on the assumptions of a linear
relationship, which may not be valid, and that the dependent variable
depends solely on the independent variable, whereas it may depend
on a number of variables.
Forecasts that extrapolate values outside the range of data from the
past, may be invalid and must be interpreted with caution.
Learning Effect
If workers specialize, there is a tendency for labour hours per unit to fall as
they become more familiar with the task. During World War II, empirical
evidence from aircraft production found the rate of improvement to be so
regular that it could be reduced to a formula.
The learning effect starts from the production of the first unit/batch. Each
time cumulative production then doubles (i.e. one to two, two to four, four
to eight, etc), the cumulative average time per unit falls to a fixed
percentage of the previous average time. This percentage is the learning
rate.
Wright’s Law
Wright's Law states that as cumulative output doubles, the cumulative
average time per unit falls to a fixed percentage (the 'learning rate') of the
previous average time.
Average time per
unit for all units
produced to date
Y = axb
Required: Calculate how long it will take to produce the seventh unit?
Note: The index of learning b is given as -0.074.
Conditions for a Learning Curve to Appl
The activity is labour intensive.
The units are identical (i.e. a repetitive task).
Low labour turnover.
No prolonged breaks in production.
= Total time (all units at steady state) – Total time (all units before steady
state).
A new model, the XY123, will be introduced to production next month. As this
is a new model, the laborers in Process 10 will have to learn how to apply
this process specifically to XY123.
The time taken for the first car is expected to be one hour. A learning rate of
85% is expected. The effect of the learning curve is expected to stop after
30 units have been produced and all subsequent units will take the same
time to produce as the 30th unit.
Required:
1. Calculate the labour time per unit which will apply for the 30th and
subsequent units?
2. Calculate the total labour time to make the first 100 units of the
XY123?
Note: The index of learning b is given as -0.2345.
Tabular Approach
A learning rate for a new product can be estimated using a tabular
approach based on production to date and the time taken, if the
cumulative units are given in exponentials of 2 (e.g. 2, 4, 8, 16, and so on).
When the learning rate stops (i.e. when a "steady state" is reached, as
described above) can also be calculated. This is the point at which the
incremental time per unit becomes constant.
Illustration
Foxy Co makes personal computers. The components for the PCs are
bought from various manufacturers and the factory workers at Foxy Co
assemble these to make a finished PC.
Production of a new type of PC has just begun. The management
accountant has asked one of the workers to keep a record of how much
time he took to make each new computer. The worker provided the
following summary for the first month:
The time shown within each band is the total for that band, not the average
per computer.
Required:
1. Calculate the learning rate that applied to the new PC?
2. Estimate the point at which the learning period finishes?
Algebraic Approach
An alternative approach to the tabular approach is an algebraic approach.
This has to be used when only information about the cumulative average
time is for two levels of output which are not exponentials of 2.
Illustration 15 Algebraic Approach to Learning Rate
The first unit of a product took 300 minutes; the total time taken for the first
8 units was 2,056 minutes.
The cumulative average time per unit for the first 8 units is therefore 257
minutes (2,056 / 8).
Cumulative output has doubled three times since the production of the first
unit (from 1 to 2, to 4, then to 8) and the cumulative average time per unit
has fallen to 257. If the learning rate is r.
257
So, r3 = = 0.8567
300
3
Therefore, r = √0.8567 = 0.9497 i.e. approximately 95%
PART PERFORMANCE
E MANGEMENT
Performance Analysis in Private Sector Organisations
Financial Measures
Profitability ratios
Liquidity ratios
Gearing ratios
Profitability Ratios
1. Gross profit margin
A high gross profit margin is desirable. It indicates that either sales
prices are high or that production costs are being kept well under
control.
Gross Profit /Sales Revenue ∗ 100
Cost
* 100
Sales Revenue
7. Sales growth
Liquidity Ratios
1. Current ratio
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
Current Liabilities
Inventory
* 365
Cost of Sales
2. Receivable days
Trade Receivables
* 365
Credit Sales
3. Payable days
Trade Payables
* 365
Credit Purchase or Cost of Sales
Measuring Risk
Financial Gearing – is the long-term debt as a % of equity.
Gearing = Debt/ Equity × 100 or Debt/ Debt + Equity × 100
A high level of gearing indicates that the company relies heavily on debt to
finance its long-term needs. This increases the level of risk for the business
since interest and capital repayments must be made on debt, where as
there is no obligation to make payments to equity. The ratio could be
improved by reducing the level of long-term debt and raising long term
finance using equity.
Interest Cover
Operating Profit
Interest cover =
Finance Cost
Dividend Cover
Net Profit
Dividend Cover =
Dividend
2. Manipulation of Results
Accelerating revenue
Delaying cost
Understating a provision or accrual
Manipulation of accounting policies
Improving Performance
To enhance performance, it's crucial to pinpoint potential concerns by
comparing current outcomes with targets or past performances. Identifying
disparities between actual and expected results, or detecting a decline in
performance over time, helps in understanding areas that need
improvement. Once these aspects are recognized, control measures can
be implemented to address and enhance overall performance.
Identifying Performance
Perspective Basics Question
Targets
How do we create Covers traditional measures
Financial value for our such as growth, profitability.
shareholders?
What do customers Give rise to target that matter
Customer value from us? to customer: cost, Quality,
delivery, inspection and so on.
Can we continue to Considers the business's
improve and create capacity to maintain its
Innovation and future value? competitive position through
learning the acquisition of
new skills and the
development of new products.
What processes must Aims to improve internal
we excel at to achieve processes and
Internal
our financial and decision-making.
customer objectives?
Goals (CSF) Measures (KPI)
Financial
Increase profit margin Profit margins or percentage increase
in profit margin.
Increase sales revenue or Sales growth (percentage increase in
sales growth sales revenue).
Decrease cost Cost to sales ratios, percentage
decrease in costs.
Customer
Increase customer satisfaction Customer satisfaction ratings, number
of repeats business, customer
complaints.
Reduce customer complaints Customer complaints.
Increase the number of new Percentage increase in customer
and returning customers number.
Innovation and Learning (Growth)
Develop new products Number of new products.
Increase the sales revenue Sales revenue from new products as a
from new products percentage of total sales revenue.
Provide more trainings No. of trainings per employee, no. of
training hours per employee.
Internal (Process Efficiency)
Improve process efficiency Efficiency ratio.
Reduce the time required for a Time taken for the specific task.
specific task
Reduce employee turnover Employee turnover rate.
Advantages Disadvantages
Provides a holistic view Management may face challenges in
beyond financial metrics. selecting appropriate KPIs, leading to
potential conflicts and analysis overload.
Takes a long-term Identifying suitable measures may be
perspective, aligning with challenging.
organizational goals.
Focuses on a small number Obtaining data for some measures may
of key performance be difficult.
indicators (KPIs).
Links performance Concentrates on the needs of owners and
measurement to customers, neglecting other stakeholder
organizational strategy. needs (employees).
Reward
Clarity
Controllability
Motivational
Dimensions – are the goals for the business and suitable measures
must be developed to measure each performance dimension.
Rewards
The system of setting targets and rewarding individuals for achieving
the targets should be clear. Clarity will improve the motivation to
achieve the targets.
Achievement of performance targets should be suitably rewarded.
Individuals should be made responsible only for aspects of
performance that they are in a position to control.
2) Measuring outputs
5) Financial constraints
1. Economy
Economy is concerned with the cost of inputs, and it is achieved by
obtaining those inputs at the lowest acceptable cost.
*Inputs – Resources (labour, materials, machines, money)
2. Efficiency
Efficiency means maximise the outputs from minimum inputs. It
measures the relationship between inputs and outputs.
3. Effectiveness
ensuring that the outputs of a service or programme have the desired
impacts; that is finding out whether they succeed in achieving
objectives and, if so, to what extent.
*Outputs – Results of an activity.
External Considerations
STAKEHOLDERS (Including
Government & Competitors) ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
EXTERNAL
CONSIDERATIONS
Advantages of Divisionalisation
Decisions should be taken more quickly because information does
not have to pass along the chain of command to and from top
management.
The authority to act to improve performance should motivate
divisional managers. Divisional organization frees top management
from detailed involvement in day-to-day operations and allows
them to devote more time to strategic planning.
Divisions provide valuable training grounds for future members of
top management.
Disadvantages of Divisionalisation
Decisions might be taken by a divisional manager in the best
interests of their own part of the business, but against the best
interest of other divisions.
A task of head office is therefore to try to prevent dysfunctional
decision-making by individual divisional managers.
Top management, by delegating decision-making to divisional
managers, may lose control since they are not aware of what is
going on in the organization as a whole.
Responsibility Centre
Principal
Type of responsibility Manager has control
performance
centre over
measures
Variance analysis
Cost Centre Controllable costs
Efficiency measures
Revenue Centre Revenues only Revenues
Controllable costs, sale
Profit Centre Profit
prices (including TP)
As for profit Centre
except that expenditure
Contribution Centre Contribution
is reported on a marginal
cost basis
Controllable costs, sales
prices (including transfer Return on
Investment centre prices) and investment investment Residual
in non-current assets income
and working capital
Illustration 1
If investment centre A currently has assets of $1,000,000 and expects to
earn a profit of $400,000, how would the centre's manager view a new
capital investment which would cost $250,000 and yield a profit of $75,000
p.a.?
Required: Calculate ROI?
Residual Income (RI)
Residual Income is a measure of the centre's profits after deducting a
notional or imputed interest cost. Residual Income = Controllable
(traceable) profit — Imputed interest charge on controllable (traceable)
investment.
Imputed interest = Controllable (traceable) investment * Cost of capital %
Illustration 2
A division with capital employed of $400,000 currently earns an ROI of 22%.
It can make an additional investment of $50,000. The average net profit
from this investment would be $12,000 after depreciation. The division's
cost of capital is 14%.
Required: What are the Residual Incomes before and after the
investment?
Transfer Pricing
A transfer price is the price at which goods or services are transferred from
one department to another, or from one member of a group to another.
Division A Division B
Units produced/sold 10,000 10,000
$ $
Sales of final product - 350,000
Costs of production
Variable costs 70,000 30,000
Fixed costs 80,000 90,000
Total costs 150,000 120,000
Required: What would be the budgeted annual profit for each division if
the units of component X are transferred from Division A to Division B?
a) at marginal cost
b) at full cost
Where there is an external market for the component The limits within
which transfer prices should fall are as follows:
1. Spare Capacity
If there is spare capacity, then, for any transfers that are made by using
that spare capacity, the opportunity cost is zero.
Illustration 4
Details of selling division A
Total production capacity = 6,000 units
Total external demand = 3,000 units
Total internal demand = 2,000 units
Variable cost per unit of the component = $12 External selling price = $20.
Required: Calculate the minimum transfer price for 2,000 units?
2. No Spare Capacity
If the seller doesn't have any spare capacity, opportunity cost represents
contribution foregone. So minimum price will be equal to variable cost-
plus opportunity cost that is the external selling price less any internal
cost savings in packaging and delivery.
Illustration 5
Details of selling division A
Total production capacity = 3,000 units
Total external demand = 3,000 units
Total internal demand units
Variable cost per unit of the component = $12 External selling price = $20
Required: Calculate the minimum transfer price for 2,000 units?
Dual Pricing
In some situations, two divisions may not be able to agree a transfer price.
But the profits of the entity as a whole would be increased if transfers did
occur. These situations are rare. However, when they occur, head office
might find a solution to the problem by agreeing to dual transfer prices.
The selling division sells at one transfer price, and
The buying division buys at a lower transfer price.