Probability Theory

Dr James Abdey
Probability Theory

Activity 5.1

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.1

Calculate the probability that, when two fair dice are rolled, the sum of the
upturned faces will be:

(a) an odd number

(b) less than 9

(c) exactly 12

(d) exactly 4.
Activity 5.1 – solution

The following table shows all the possibilities [as: (Score on first die, Score
on second die)]:

(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)

(2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
(5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
(6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)
Activity 5.1 – solution

The total number of possible outcomes, N, is 36. Note all outcomes are
equally likely.

(a) The number of favourable points = 18, so P(odd total) = 18/36

= 1/2 = 0.5.

(b) The number of favourable points = 26, so P(less than 9) = 26/36

= 13/18 = 0.7222.

(c) The number of favourable points = 1, so P(exactly 12) = 1/36

= 0.0278.

(d) The number of favourable points = 3, so P(exactly 4) = 3/36

= 1/12 = 0.0833.
Probability Theory

Activity 5.2

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.2

A simple gambling game is played as follows.

The gambler throws three fair coins together with one fair die and wins £1
if the number of heads obtained in the throw of the coins is greater than
or equal to the score on the die.

Calculate the probability that the gambler wins.

Activity 5.2 – solution
The total number of equally likely outcomes is:

N = 2 × 2 × 2 × 6 = 48.

Here it is convenient to organise the calculations by numbers in descending

order – in this case, the value on the die. Clearly, we are only interested in
cases for which the highest die value is 3, 2 or 1.

Die shows 3: the only winning outcome is HHH ⇒ 1 case.

Die shows 2: the winning outcomes are HHH, HHT , HTH, THH ⇒ 4 cases.

Die shows 1: the winning outcomes are

HHH, HHT , HTH, THH, HTT , THT , TTH ⇒ 7 cases.

We can simply add the numbers of cases, so there are n = 12 favourable

outcomes. Hence the required probability is 12/48 = 1/4 = 0.25.
Probability Theory

Activity 5.3

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.3

Three fair dice are thrown and you are told that at least one of the
upturned faces shows a 4.

Using this fact, determine the (conditional) probabilities of:

(a) exactly one 4

(b) exactly two 4s.

Activity 5.3 – solution

We first identify N, the total number of equally likely outcomes when at

least one die shows a 4, i.e. we restrict our attention to the ‘smaller’
sample space, rather than the ‘full’ sample space of 63 = 216 outcomes.

If the first die shows a 4, then the other two can be anything, so the
‘pattern’ is 4XY . There are six choices for each of X and Y , and these
choices are independent of each other. Hence there are 6 × 6 = 36
outcomes in which the first die shows a 4.
Activity 5.3 – solution

If the first die does not show a 4, then there are 11 possible combinations
of values for the other two dice. To see why, one method is to list the
possible pairs of values:

left-hand number equal to 4 : 46, 45, 44, 43, 42, 41

left-hand number not equal to 4 : 64, 54, 34, 24, 14

where, of course, the outcome ‘44’ can only be shown in one of the two
lists. This ‘listing’ approach works because the number of possibilities for
the two dice is small enough such that we can list all of those in which we
are interested (unlike with three dice).
Activity 5.3 – solution

Another, slightly different, method is to calculate the numbers in each row

(without listing them all). For the pattern 4X there are six choices of X ,
hence six cases, and for the pattern [not 4]4 there are five choices for
[not 4] and hence five cases, giving eleven possibilities altogether.

As mentioned above, anything except short lists should be avoided, so it is

useful to know lots of alternative ways for working out the number of
relevant outcomes.
Activity 5.3 – solution

Combining these remarks, we have:

N = 36 + (5 × 11) = 91.

We now identify the number of favourable outcomes, n, for two or more 4s.
If the first die shows a 4, then there has to be at least one 4 on the other
two, so there are 11 ways for the other two dice. If the first die does not
show a 4, then there are 5 choices for what it might show, while both the
other two dice must show 4s. Clearly, the two 4s can only happen in 1
way. So:
n = 11 + (5 × 1) = 16
and exactly one of these cases, (4, 4, 4), represents more than two 4s, so
that fifteen represent exactly two 4s.
Activity 5.3 – solution

Hence the required probabilities are as follows.

(a) We have:

91 − 16 75
P(exactly one 4) = = = 0.8242.
91 91
(b) We have:
15
P(exactly two 4s) = = 0.1648.
91
Probability Theory

Activity 5.5

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.5

In a class of 35 students, 20 have taken Economics, 15 have taken History,

and 10 have taken Politics.

Of these, 9 have taken both Economics and History, 5 have taken both
Economics and Politics, and 6 have taken both History and Politics. 3
students have taken all three subjects.

What is the probability that a student chosen at random from the class
has taken at least one of these subjects?
Activity 5.5 – solution

This is an application of the previous question with:

A = Economics, B = History and C = Politics.

So:
20 + 15 + 10 − 9 − 5 − 6 + 3 28
P(at least one subject) = = = 0.8.
35 35
Probability Theory

Activity 5.6

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.6

How many people do you need at a party so that the probability of at least
two people having the same birthday is greater than 0.5?

(Ignore leap years!)

Activity 5.6 – solution
We have:
364
P(1 & 2 have different birthdays) =
365
364
P(1 & 2 have the same birthday) = 1 −
365
364 363
P(1, 2 & 3 have different birthdays) = ×
365 365
364 363
P(at least two of 1, 2 & 3 have the same birthday) = 1 − ×
365 365
..
.
364 363
P(first n people have different birthdays) = × × ···
365 365
366 − n
×
365
Activity 5.6 – solution

P(at least two of the first n have the same birthday)

364 363 366 − n

=1− × × ··· × .
365 365 365
We want the smallest n such that:
364 363 366 − n
1− × × ··· × > 0.5.
365 365 365
The relevant value is n = 23, so that if there are 23 people at a party then
there is a 50% chance (in fact, a little more) that at least two of them
have the same birthday! The plot below shows how the probability
changes as n increases.
Activity 5.6 – solution
Probability of at least 2 people with same birthday

1.0
0.8
0.6
Probability

0.4
0.2
0.0

0 20 40 60 80

Number of people
Probability Theory

Activity 5.7

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.7

Two fair dice are rolled.

(a) What is the probability of two sixes?

(b) What is the probability of at least one six?

Activity 5.7 – solution
(a) By independence:
1 1 1
P(two sixes) = × = .
6 6 36
(b) We have:

P(at least one 6) = P(6 on first die and/or 6 on second die)

= P(6 on first die) + P(6 on second die)
− P(6 on both dice)
1 1 1
= + −
6 6 36
11
=
36
= 0.3056.
Probability Theory

Activity 5.8

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.8

A student has an important job interview in the morning.

To ensure he wakes up in time, he sets two alarm clocks which ring with
probabilities 0.97 and 0.99, respectively.

What is the probability that at least one of the alarm clocks will wake him
up?
Activity 5.8 – solution

We are told that the alarm clocks are independent. Therefore:

P(at least one rings) = 1 − P(neither rings) = 1 − (0.03 × 0.01) = 0.9997.

Probability Theory

Activity 5.9

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.9

A fair coin is tossed 10 times.

(a) What is the probability that the 10th toss results in a head?

(b) If the first 9 tosses give 4 heads and 5 tails, what is the probability
that the 10th toss results in a head?

(c) If the first 9 tosses give 9 heads and no tails, what is the probability
that the 10th toss results in a head?
Activity 5.9 – solution

The answer is 0.5 in each case!

The coin has no ‘memory’.

This is because the successive throws of a fair coin are independent.

Probability Theory

Activity 5.10

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.10

The successful operation of three separate switches is needed to control a

machine.

If the probability of failure of each switch is 0.1 and the failure of any
switch is independent of any other switch, what is the probability that the
machine will break down?
Activity 5.10 – solution

The probability that the machine will not break down equals the
probability that all three switches work.

This equals 0.9 × 0.9 × 0.9 = 0.729, by independence.

Hence the probability it will break down is 1 − 0.729 = 0.271.

Probability Theory

Activity 5.11

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.11

Of all the candles produced by a company, 0.01% do not have wicks (the
core piece of string). A retailer buys 10,000 candles from the company.

(a) What is the probability that all the candles have wicks?

(b) What is the probability that at least one candle will not have a wick?
Activity 5.11 – Solution

Let X be the number of candles without a wick.

(a) We have:
P(X = 0) = (0.9999)10,000 = 0.3679.
(b) We have:

P(X ≥ 1) = 1 − P(X = 0) = 1 − 0.3679 = 0.6321.

Probability Theory

Activity 5.12

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.12

A family has four children.

(a) What is the probability of at least one boy among the children?

(b) What is the probability that all the children are of the same sex?
Activity 5.12 – solution

For our sample space we can take (in order of age):

GGGG
GGGB GGBG GBGG BGGG
GGBB GBGB BGGB GBBG BGBG BBGG
BBBG BBGB BGBB GBBB
BBBB

So we have N = 24 = 16 possible outcomes.

Activity 5.12 – solution
(a) For ‘at least one boy’ the number of favourable points is 15 (all
excluding GGGG), so:
15
P(at least one boy) = = 0.9375.
16
An alternative (and easier) method is to note that:
1 1 1 1 1
P(all girls) = × × × =
2 2 2 2 16
so:
1 15
P(at least one boy) = 1 − P(all girls) = 1 − = = 0.9375.
16 16
(b) For ‘all of the same sex’ the number of favourable points is 2, so:
2 1
P(all of the same sex) = = = 0.125.
16 8
Probability Theory

Activity 5.13

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.13

Calculate the probabilities of the following events.

(a) Five independent tosses of a fair coin yield the sequence HHTTH.

(b) Five independent tosses of a fair coin yield Hs on the first and last
tosses.

(c) A pair of fair dice is thrown and the faces are equal.

(d) Five cards are drawn at random from a deck of cards and all are the
same suit.

(e) Four independent tosses of a fair coin result in at least two heads.
What is the probability that all four tosses are heads?
Activity 5.13 – solution

(a) By independence, we have (0.5)5 = 0.03215.

(b) By independence (noting we only care about the first and last
outcomes), we have (0.5)2 = 0.25.

(c) Of the 36 equally likely outcomes, 6 have equal faces, hence the
probability is 6/36 = 1/6 = 0.1667.

(d) Note this is sampling without replacement, and we can have any card
as the first card drawn, the probability is:
12 11 10 9
1× × × × = 0.00198.
51 50 49 48
(e) The sample space has 11 points, all equally likely, and one is the
event of interest, so the probability is 1/11 = 0.0909.
Probability Theory

Activity 5.14

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.14

A company is concerned about interruptions to email. It was noticed that

problems occurred on 15% of workdays. To see how bad the situation is,
calculate the probabilities of an interruption during a five-day working
week:

(a) on Monday and again on Tuesday

(b) for the first time on Thursday

(c) every day

(d) at least once during the week.

Activity 5.14 – solution

(a) This is the probability of the event occurring on Monday and on

Tuesday. Each has probability 0.15 and the outcome is independent
of day of the week, so calculate:

(0.15)2 = 0.0225.

(b) We require the probability of the event not occurring on the first three
days of the week, but occurring on Thursday. So the result will be:

(1 − 0.15)3 × 0.15 = 0.092.

Activity 5.14 – solution

(c) Similar to (a), but for each weekday. We need to find:

(0.15)5 = 0.000076.

(d) The probability of no occurrence in the week will be that of no

occurrence on any of the five days, and this is:

(0.85)5 = 0.444.

Therefore the probability of at least one occurrence will be:

1 − 0.444 = 0.556.
Probability Theory

Activity 5.16

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.16

Two fair coins, a 10p and a 50p, are tossed.

(a) Find the probability that:

i. both coins show heads
ii. different faces show up
iii. at least one head shows.

(b) You are told that the 10p shows heads. What is the probability that
both coins show heads?

(c) You are told that at least one of the two coins shows heads. What is
the probability that both coins show heads?
Activity 5.16 – solution

Let the sample space be S = {HH, HT , TH, TT } where, for example,

‘HT ’ means ‘heads on the 10p coin and tails on the 50p coin’. Each
element is equally likely, so each has a probability equal to 0.25.

(a) i. We have P(HH) = 0.25.

ii. We have P(different faces) = P(HT or TH) = P(HT ) + P(TH) = 0.5.

iii. We have P(at least 1 head) = P(HT or TH or HH) =

P(HT ) + P(TH) + P(HH) = 0.75.
Activity 5.16 – solution
(b) To find P(both show heads given that the 10p shows heads) we
define:
A = both show heads = {HH}
and:
B = 10p shows heads = {HT , HH}
and use conditional probability, i.e. the result that:
P(A ∩ B)
P(A | B) = .
P(B)
To do this we note that in this case the event A ∩ B is the same as
the event A (which is important to spot, when it happens). Hence:
P(A ∩ B) P(A) P(HH)
P(HH | 10p shows heads) = = =
P(B) P(B) P(HT or HH)
0.25
= = 0.5.
0.5
Activity 5.16 – solution

(c) Here we want to find P(A | C ) = P(A ∩ C )/P(C ) where:

C = at least one head = {HH, HT , TH}.

Hence P(HH | at least one head) equals:

P(A ∩ C ) P(A) P(HH) 0.25

= = = = 0.33.
P(C ) P(C ) P(HH or HT or TH) 0.75
Probability Theory

Activity 5.17

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.17

A fair coin is thrown six times in succession.

(a) Find the probability that exactly three throws come up heads.

(b) Assuming that there are exactly three heads, what is the (conditional)
probability that they are on consecutive throws?
Activity 5.17 – solution

There are two ‘fair’ choices for the outcome of each throw, hence there are
two equally likely outcomes (H and T , using obvious notation) of each.
Moreover, we can assume that one throw’s outcome does not affect the
others. That is, the outcomes of the different throws are independent,
which (always!) means we multiply the probabilities. Combining these two
thoughts, there are:

N = 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 = 26 = 64

items (‘outcomes’) in the full, six-throw sample space, each with

probability:
 6
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
× × × × × = = .
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 64
Activity 5.17 – solution

(a) It is (just about) possible to list accurately the 20 cases in which there
are exactly three heads (and hence exactly three tails), identifying the
four cases (top row) in which the three Hs are adjacent.

HHHTTT THHHTT TTHHHT TTTHHH 3 Hs together

HHTTTH HHTTHT HHTHTT THHTTH
THHTTH TTHHTH HTTTHH HTTHHT 2 consecutive Hs
HTHHTT THTTHH THTHHT TTHTHH
HTHTHT HTHTTH HTTHTH THTHTH All Hs separate
To make sure that you count everything, but just once, it is essential
to organise the listed items according to some pattern.
Hence:
n 20 5
P(exactly 3 Hs) = = = = 0.3125.
N 64 16
Activity 5.17 – solution

(b) If there are exactly three heads on consecutive throws, then it is

possible to specify which of these different outcomes we are dealing
with by identifying how many (if any) T s there are before the
sequence of Hs. (The remaining T s must be after the sequence of
Hs.)

The possible values (out of 3) are 0, 1, 2 and 3, so there are four

cases. Hence:
n 4 1
P(3 consecutive Hs | exactly 3 Hs) = = = = 0.2.
N 20 5
Probability Theory

Activity 5.18

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.18

Let K be the event of drawing a ‘king’ from a well-shuffled deck of playing

cards. Let D be the event of drawing a ‘diamond’ from the pack.

Determine:
(a) P(K ) (b) P(D)
(c) P(K c ) (d) P(K ∩ D)
(e) P(K ∪ D) (f) P(K | D)
(g) P(D | K ) (h) P(D ∪ K c )
(i) P(D c ∩ K ) (j) P((D c ∩ K ) | (D ∪ K )).

Are the events D and K independent, mutually exclusive, neither or both?

Activity 5.18 – solution
(a) We have:
4 1
P(K ) = =
52 13
(b) We have:
13 1
P(D) = =
52 4
(c) We have:
1 12
P(K c ) = 1 − =
13 13
(d) We have:
1
P(K ∩ D) =
52
(e) We have:
16 4
P(K ∪ D) = =
52 13
(f) We have:
1
P(K | D) =
13
Activity 5.18 – solution

(g) We have:
1
P(D | K ) =
4
(h) We have:
49
P(D ∪ K c ) =
52
(i) We have:
3
P(D c ∩ K ) =
52
(j) We have:
3
P(D c ∩ K | D ∪ K ) =
16

The events are independent since P(K ∩ D) = P(K ) P(D), but they are
not mutually exclusive (consider the King of Diamonds).
Probability Theory

Activity 5.19

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.19

At a local school, 90% of the students took test A, and 15% of the
students took both test A and test B. Based on the information provided,
which of the following calculations are not possible, and why? What can
you say based on the data?

(a) P(B | A).

(b) P(A | B).

(c) P(A ∪ B).

If you knew that everyone who took test B also took test A, how would
that change your answers?
Activity 5.19 – solution

(a) Possible.
P(A ∩ B) 0.15
P(B | A) = = = 0.167.
P(A) 0.90
(b) Not possible because P(B) is unknown and we would need to
calculate:
P(A ∩ B) 0.15
P(A | B) = = .
P(B) P(B)
(c) Not possible because P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) and, as
discussed in (b), we do not know P(B).

If we knew that everyone who took test B also took test A, then
P(A | B) = 1 and hence A ∪ B = A. Therefore P(A ∪ B) = P(A) = 0.90.
Probability Theory

Activity 5.20

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.20

Given two events, A and B, state why each of the following is not possible.
Use formulae or equations to illustrate your answer.

(a) P(A) = −0.46.

(b) P(A) = 0.26 and P(Ac ) = 0.62.

(c) P(A ∩ B) = 0.92 and P(A ∪ B) = 0.42.

(d) P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B) and P(B) > P(B | A).

Activity 5.20 – solution

(a) Not possible because a probability cannot be negative since

0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.

(b) Not possible because P(A) + P(Ac ) = 1. Here

0.26 + 0.62 = 0.88 6= 1.

(c) Not possible because A ∩ B is a subset of A ∪ B, hence we have

P(A ∩ B) ≤ P(A ∪ B). Here 0.92 > 0.42.

(d) Not possible because two events cannot both be independent (as
implied by the condition P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B)) and dependent (as
implied by the condition P(B) > P(B | A)) at the same time.
Probability Theory

Activity 5.21

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.21
Events A, B and C have the following probabilities:
P(A) = 0.4 P(B) = 0.5 P(C ) = 0.1

P(A | B) = 0.2 P(B | C ) = 0 P(C | A) = 0.25.

(a) Are the following statements ‘True’ or ‘False’ ?

i. C implies A.
ii. B and C are mutually exclusive.
iii. A ∪ B ∪ C = S.

(b) What is P(B | A)?

(c) What is P(B | Ac )?

Activity 5.21 – solution
(a) i. The necessary condition for C implies A is that P(A | C ) = 1. Using
Bayes’ formula, we see that:
P(C | A) P(A) 0.25 × 0.4
P(A | C ) = = =1
P(C ) 0.1
so the statement is true.
ii. P(B | C ) = 0, and using Bayes’ formula it follows that P(B ∩ C ) = 0,
so we see that (ignoring continuous distributions) the two events are
mutually exclusive, so the statement is true.
iii. Since C implies A, it follows that:
P(A ∪ B ∪ C ) = P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
= 0.4 + 0.5 − P(A | B) P(B)
= 0.4 + 0.5 − 0.2 × 0.5
= 0.8.
Since P(S) = 1, it follows that A ∪ B ∪ C 6= S, so the statement is
false.
Activity 5.21 – solution

(b) Applying Bayes’ formula, we have:

P(B ∩ A) P(A | B) P(B) 0.2 × 0.5

P(B | A) = = = = 0.25.
P(A) 0.4 0.4

(c) Applying Bayes’ formula, we have:

P(Ac | B) P(B) 0.8 × 0.5 2

P(B | Ac ) = c
= = = 0.6667.
P(A ) 0.6 3
Probability Theory

Activity 5.22

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.22

In an audit Bill analyses 60% of the audit items and George analyses 40%.
Bill’s error rate is 5% and George’s error rate is 3%. Suppose an item is
sampled at random.

(a) What is the probability that it is in error (i.e. audited incorrectly)?

(b) If the chosen item is incorrect what is the probability that Bill is to
blame?
Activity 5.22 – solution

Let B = Bill audits item, G = George audits item, and E = incorrect

audit. Hence P(B) = 0.6, P(G ) = 0.4, P(E | B) = 0.05 and
P(E | G ) = 0.03.

(a) Using the total probability formula:

P(E ) = P(E | B) P(B) + P(E | G ) P(G ) = (0.05 × 0.6) + (0.03 × 0.4)

= 0.042.

(b) Using the conditional probability formula:

P(E | B) P(B) 0.05 × 0.6

P(B | E ) = = = 0.71.
P(E ) 0.042
Probability Theory

Activity 5.23

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.23

Two fair coins are tossed. You are told that ‘at least one is a head’.

What is the probability that both are heads?

Activity 5.23 – solution

At first sight it may appear that this should be equal to 1/2, but this is
wrong! The correct solution may be achieved in several ways; here we shall
use a conditional probability approach.

Let HH denote the event ‘both coins show heads’, and let A denote the
event ‘at least one coin shows a head’. Then:
P(A ∩ HH) P(HH) 1/4 1
P(HH | A) = = = = .
P(A) P(A) 3/4 3

Note that A ∩ HH = HH, i.e. ‘at least one head’ and ‘both show heads’
only corresponds to ‘both show heads’, HH.
Probability Theory

Activity 5.24

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.24

The probability of a horse winning a race is 0.3 if it is dry and 0.5 if it is

wet. The weather forecast gives the chance of rain as 40%.

(a) Find the probability that the horse wins.

(b) If you are told that the horse lost the race, what is the probability
that the weather was dry on the day of the race? (Assuming you
cannot remember!)
Activity 5.24 – solution
Let A = ‘horse wins’, Ac = ‘horse loses’, D = ‘dry’ and D c = ‘wet’. We
have:
P(A | D) = 0.3, P(A | D c ) = 0.5, P(D) = 0.6 and P(D c ) = 0.4.

(a) We have:
P(A) = P(A | D) P(D)+P(A | D c ) P(D c ) = 0.3×0.6+0.5×0.4 = 0.38.
Hence the horse has a probability of 0.38 of winning the race.
(b) From (a), we can determine that there is a 62% chance that the horse
loses the race, i.e. P(Ac ) = 0.62. Hence:
P(Ac | D) P(D) 0.7 × 0.6
P(D | Ac ) = c
= = 0.6774.
P(A ) 0.62
That is, the probability it is dry, given that the horse loses, is 0.6774,
or about 68%.
Probability Theory

Activity 5.25

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.25

A restaurant manager classifies customers as well-dressed, casually-dressed

or poorly-dressed and finds that 50%, 40% and 10%, respectively, fall into
these categories. The manager found that wine was ordered by 70% of the
well-dressed, by 50% of the casually-dressed and by 30% of the
poorly-dressed.

(a) What is the probability that a randomly chosen customer orders wine?

(b) If wine is ordered, what is the probability that the person ordering is
well-dressed?

(c) If wine is not ordered, what is the probability that the person ordering
is poorly-dressed?
Activity 5.25 – solution
The following notation is used:

• W = well-dressed

• C = casually-dressed

• P = poorly-dressed

• O = wine ordered.

(a) We have:

P(O) = P(O | W ) P(W ) + P(O | M) P(M) + P(O | P) P(P)

= (0.7 × 0.5) + (0.5 × 0.4) + (0.3 × 0.1)
= 0.58.
Activity 5.25 – solution

(b) Using Bayes’ theorem:

P(O | W ) P(W ) 0.7 × 0.5

P(W | O) = = ≈ 0.60.
P(O) 0.58

(c) We require:

P(O c | P) P(P) 0.7 × 0.1

P(P | O c ) = c
= ≈ 0.17.
P(O ) 0.42
Probability Theory

Activity 5.26

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.26

In a large lecture, 60% of students are female and 40% are male. Records
show that 15% of female students and 20% of male students are registered
as part-time students.

(a) If a student is chosen at random from the lecture, what is the

probability that the student studies part-time?

(b) If a randomly chosen student studies part-time, what is the

probability that the student is male?
Activity 5.26 – solution

Let PT = ‘part-time’, F = ‘female’ and M = ‘male’.

(a) We have:

P(PT ) = P(PT | F ) P(F ) + P(PT | M) P(M)

= (0.15 × 0.6) + (0.2 × 0.4)
= 0.17.

(b) We have:

P(PT | M) P(M) 0.2 × 0.4

P(M | PT ) = = = 0.4706.
P(PT ) 0.17
Probability Theory

Activity 5.27

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.27

20% of men show early signs of losing their hair. 2% of men carry a gene
that is related to hair loss. 80% of men who carry the gene experience
early hair loss.

(a) What is the probability that a man carries the gene and experiences
early hair loss?

(b) What is the probability that a man carries the gene, given that he
experiences early hair loss?
Activity 5.27 – solution

Using obvious notation, P(H) = 0.2, P(G ) = 0.02 and P(H | G ) = 0.8.

(a) We require:

P(G ∩ H) = P(G ) P(H | G ) = 0.02 × 0.8 = 0.016.

(b) We require:

P(G ∩ H) 0.016
P(G | H) = = = 0.08.
P(H) 0.2
Probability Theory

Activity 5.28

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.28

James is a salesman for a company and sells two products, A and B. He

visits three different customers each day. For each customer, the
probability that James sells product A is 1/3 and the probability is 1/4
that he sells product B. The sale of product A is independent of the sale of
product B during any visit, and the results of the three visits are mutually
independent. Calculate the probability that James will:

(a) sell both products, A and B, on the first visit

(b) sell only one product during the first visit

(c) make no sales of product A during the day

(d) make at least one sale of product B during the day.

Activity 5.28 – solution
Let A = ‘product A sold’ and B = ‘product B sold’.
(a) We have:
1 1 1
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B) = × = .
3 4 12
(b) We have:
   
c c 1 3 2 1 5
P(A ∩ B ) + P(A ∩ B) = × + × = .
3 4 3 4 12
(c) Since P(Ac ) = 2/3, then:
 3
2 8
P(no A sales all day) = = .
3 27
(d) We have:
 3
3 37
P(at least 1 B sale) = 1 − P(no B sales) = 1 − = .
4 64
Probability Theory

Activity 5.29

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.29

Tower Construction Company (‘Tower’) is determining whether it should

submit a bid for a new shopping centre.

In the past, Tower’s main competitor, Skyrise Construction Company

(‘Skyrise’), has submitted bids 80% of the time. If Skyrise does not bid on
a job, the probability that Tower will get the job is 0.6.

If Skyrise does submit a bid, the probability that Tower gets the job is 0.35.

(a) What is the probability that Tower will get the job?

(b) If Tower gets the job, what is the probability that Skyrise made a bid?

(c) If Tower did not get the job, what is the probability that Skyrise did
not make a bid?
Activity 5.29 – solution

(a) We have:

P(Tower gets it) = (0.2 × 0.6) + (0.8 × 0.35) = 0.4.

(b)

P(Skyrise bid | Tower gets job)

P(Tower gets job | Skyrise bid) P(Skyrise bid)
=
P(Tower gets job)
0.35 × 0.8
=
0.4
= 0.7.
Activity 5.29 – solution

(c) We have:

P(Skyrise did not bid | Tower did not get job)

P(Tower did not get job | Skyrise did not bid) P(Skyrise did not bid)
=
P(Tower did not get job)
0.4 × 0.2
=
0.6
2
=
15
≈ 0.13.
Probability Theory

Activity 5.30

Dr James Abdey
Activity 5.30
There are 3 identical urns.

The first urn contains 7 red balls and 3 white balls.

The second urn contains 5 red balls and 5 white balls.
The third urn contains 4 red balls and 8 white balls.

One of the urns is selected at random (i.e. each urn has a 1-in-3 chance of
being selected). Balls are then drawn from the selected urn without
replacement.

The first ball is red.

The second ball is white.
The third ball is red.
The fourth ball is red.

At each stage of sampling, calculate the probabilities of the selected urn

being Urn I, Urn II or Urn III.
Activity 5.30 – solution

The following table shows the relevant calculations:

Urn Start Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4

Mix I 7R, 3W 6R, 3W 6R, 2W 5R, 2W 4R, 2W
of II 5R, 5W 4R, 5W 4R, 4W 3R, 4W 2R, 4W
balls III 4R, 8W 3R, 8W 3R, 7W 2R, 7W 1R, 7W
I — 7/10 × 1/3 3/9 × 0.4565 6/8 × 0.3097 5/7 × 0.4526
P(Ball)
= 0.2333 = 0.1522 = 0.2323 = 0.3232
II — 5/10 × 1/3 5/9 × 0.3262 4/8 × 0.3687 3/7 × 0.3593
×
= 0.1667 = 0.1812 = 0.1844 = 0.1540
III — 4/12 × 1/3 8/11 × 0.2174 3/10 × 0.3217 2/9 × 0.1880
P(Urn)
= 0.1111 = 0.1581 = 0.0965 = 0.0418
Sum 0.5111 0.4915 0.5132 0.5190
Activity 5.30 – solution

Urn Start Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4

I 0.3333 0.2333/0.5111 0.1522/0.4915 0.2323/0.5132 0.3232/0.5190
= 0.4565 = 0.3097 = 0.4526 = 0.6227
P(Urn) II 0.3333 0.1667/0.5111 0.1812/0.4915 0.1844/0.5132 0.1540/0.5190
= 0.3262 = 0.3687 = 0.3593 = 0.2967
III 0.3333 0.1111/0.5111 0.1581/0.4915 0.0965/0.5132 0.0418/0.5190
= 0.2174 = 0.3217 = 0.1880 = 0.0805

Note that the ‘Sum’ row is calculated using the total probability formula,
and the urn probabilities are computed using Bayes’ formula.