Chapter 2: Probability

CHAPTER 2

Section 2.1

1.
a. S = {1324, 1342, 1423, 1432, 2314, 2341, 2413, 2431, 3124, 3142, 4123, 4132, 3214,
3241, 4213, 4231}

b. Event A contains the outcomes where 1 is first in the list:

A = {1324, 1342, 1423, 1432}

c. Event B contains the outcomes where 2 is first or second:

B = {2314, 2341, 2413, 2431, 3214, 3241, 4213, 4231}

d. The compound event AB contains the outcomes in A or B or both:

AB = {1324, 1342, 1423, 1432, 2314, 2341, 2413, 2431, 3214, 3241, 4213, 4231}
AB = , since 1 and 2 can’t both get into the championship game
A = S – A = {2314, 2341, 2413, 2431, 3124, 3142, 4123, 4132, 3214, 3241, 4213, 4231}

2.
a. A1  A2  A3

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 Chapter 2: Probability

b. A1  A2  A3

c. A1  A2  A3

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 Chapter 2: Probability

d. (A1  A2 A3 )  (A1  A2  A3 )  (A1  A2  A3 )

e. A1  (A2  A3)

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3.
a. Event A = { SSF, SFS, FSS }

b. Event B = { SSS, SSF, SFS, FSS }

c. For Event C, the system must have component 1 working ( S in the first position), then at
least one of the other two components must work (at least one S in the 2nd and 3rd
positions: Event C = { SSS, SSF, SFS }

d. Event C = { SFF, FSS, FSF, FFS, FFF }

Event AC = { SSS, SSF, SFS, FSS }
Event AC = { SSF, SFS }
Event BC = { SSS, SSF, SFS, FSS }
Event BC = { SSS SSF, SFS }

4.
a. Event A = { RRR, LLL, SSS }

b. Event B = { RLS, RSL, LRS, LSR, SRL, SLR }

c. Event C = { RRL, RRS, RLR, RSR, LRR, SRR }

d. Event D = { RRL, RRS, RLR, RSR, LRR, SRR, LLR, LLS, LRL, LSL, RLL, SLL, SSR,
SSL, SRS, SLS, RSS, LSS }

e. Event D contains outcomes where all cars go the same direction, or they all go different
directions:
D = { RRR, LLL, SSS, RLS, RSL, LRS, LSR, SRL, SLR }

Because Event D totally encloses Event C, the compound event CD = D:

CD = { RRL, RRS, RLR, RSR, LRR, SRR, LLR, LLS, LRL, LSL, RLL, SLL, SSR,
SSL, SRS, SLS, RSS, LSS }

Using similar reasoning, we see that the compound event CD = C:

CD = { RRL, RRS, RLR, RSR, LRR, SRR }

5.
a.

Outcome
Number Outcome
1 111
2 112
3 113
4 121
5 122
6 123
7 131
8 132

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 Chapter 2: Probability

9 133
10 211
11 212
12 213
13 221
14 222
15 223
16 231
17 232
18 233
19 311
20 312
21 313
22 321
23 322
24 323
25 331
26 332
27 333

b. Outcome Numbers 1, 14, 27

c. Outcome Numbers 6, 8, 12, 16, 20, 22

d. Outcome Numbers 1, 3, 7, 9, 19, 21, 25, 27

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6.
a.
Outcome
Number Outcome
1 123
2 124
3 125
4 213
5 214
6 215
7 13
8 14
9 15
10 23
11 24
12 25
13 3
14 4
15 5

b. Outcomes 13, 14, 15

c. Outcomes 3, 6, 9, 12, 15

d. Outcomes 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15

7.
a. S = {BBBAAAA, BBABAAA, BBAABAA, BBAAABA, BBAAAAB, BABBAAA,
BABABAA, BABAABA, BABAAAB, BAABBAA, BAABABA, BAABAAB,
BAAABBA, BAAABAB, BAAAABB, ABBBAAA, ABBABAA, ABBAABA,
ABBAAAB, ABABBAA, ABABABA, ABABAAB, ABAABBA, ABAABAB,
ABAAABB, AABBBAA, AABBABA, AABBAAB, AABABBA, AABABAB,
AABAABB, AAABBBA, AAABBAB, AAABABB, AAAABBB}

b. {AAAABBB, AAABABB, AAABBAB, AABAABB, AABABAB}

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8.
a.
Home Mortgage Number
Outcome 1 2 3 4
1 F F F F
2 F F F V
3 F F V F
4 F F V V
5 F V F F
6 F V F V
7 F V V F
8 F V V V
9 V F F F
10 V F F V
11 V F V F
12 V F V V
13 V V F F
14 V V F V
15 V V V F
16 V V V V

b. Outcome numbers 2, 3, 5 ,9

c. Outcome numbers 1, 16

d. Outcome numbers 1, 2, 3, 5, 9

e. In words, the UNION described is the event that either all of the mortgages are variable,
or that at most all of them are variable: outcomes 1,2,3,5,9,16. The INTERSECTION
described is the event that all of the mortgages are fixed: outcome 1.

f. The UNION described is the event that either exactly three are fixed, or that all four are
the same: outcomes 1, 2, 3, 5, 9, 16. The INTERSECTION in words is the event that
exactly three are fixed AND that all four are the same. This cannot happen. (There are no
outcomes in common) : b  c = .

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9.
a. In the diagram on the left, the shaded area is (AB). On the right, the shaded area is A,
the striped area is B, and the intersection A  B occurs where there is BOTH shading
and stripes. These two diagrams display the same area.

b. In the diagram below, the shaded area represents (AB). Using the diagram on the right
above, the union of A and B is represented by the areas that have either shading or
stripes or both. Both of the diagrams display the same area.

10.
a. A = {Chev, Pont, Buick}, B = {Ford, Merc}, C = {Plym, Chrys} are three mutually
exclusive events.

b. No, let E = {Chev, Pont}, F = {Pont, Buick}, G = {Buick, Ford}. These events are not
mutually exclusive (e.g. E and F have an outcome in common), yet there is no outcome
common to all three events.

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Section 2.2

11.
a. .07

b. .15 + .10 + .05 = .30

c. Let event A = selected customer owns stocks. Then the probability that a selected
customer does not own a stock can be represented by
P(A) = 1 - P(A) = 1 – (.18 + .25) = 1 - .43 = .57. This could also have been done easily
by adding the probabilities of the funds that are not stocks.

12.
a. P(A  B) = .50 + .40 - .25 = .65

b. P((A  B)) = 1 - P(A  B) = 1 - .65 = .35

c. A  B ; P(A  B) = P(A) – P(A  B) = .50 - .25 = .25

13.
a. awarded either #1 or #2 (or both):
P(A1  A2) = P(A1) + P(A2) - P(A1  A2) = .22 + .25 - .11 = .36

b. awarded neither #1 or #2:

P(A1  A2) = P[(A1  A2) ] = 1 - P(A1  A2) = 1 - .36 = .64

c. awarded at least one of #1, #2, #3:

P(A1  A2  A3) = P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) - P(A1  A2) - P(A1  A3) –
P(A2  A3) + P(A1  A2  A3)
= .22 +.25 + .28 - .11 -.05 - .07 + .01 = .53
d. awarded none of the three projects:
P( A1  A2  A3 ) = 1 – P(awarded at least one) = 1 - .53 = .47.

e. awarded #3 but neither #1 nor #2:

P( A1  A2  A3 ) = P(A3) - P(A1  A3) – P(A2  A3)
+ P(A1  A2  A3)
= .28 - .05 - .07+ .01 = .17

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f. either (neither #1 nor #2) or #3:

P[( A1  A2 )  A3 ] = P(shaded region) = P(awarded none) + P(A3)
= .47 + .28 = .75

Alternatively, answers to a – f can be obtained from probabilities on the accompanying

Venn diagram

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14.
a. P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A  B),
so P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A  B)
= .8 +.7 - .9 = .6

b. P(shaded region) = P(A  B) - P(A  B) = .9 - .6 = .3

Shaded region = event of interest = (A  B)  (A  B)

15.
a. The probabilities do not add to 1 because there are other software packages besides SPSS
and SAS for which requests could be made.

b. P(A) = 1 – P(A) = 1 - .30 = .70

c. P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) = .30 + .50 = .80

(since A and B are mutually exclusive events)

d. P(A  B) = P[(A  B) ] (De Morgan’s law)

= 1 - P(A  B)
=1 - .80 = .20

16. This situation requires the complement concept. The only way for the desired event NOT to
happen is if a 75 W bulb is selected first. Let event A be that a 75 W bulb is selected first,
and P(A) = . Then the desired event is event A.
So P(A) = 1 – P(A) =

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17.
a. Let event E be the event that at most one purchases an electric dryer. Then E is the
event that at least two purchase electric dryers.
P(E) = 1 – P(E) = 1 - .428 = .572

b. Let event A be the event that all five purchase gas. Let event B be the event that all five
purchase electric. All other possible outcomes are those in which at least one of each
type is purchased. Thus, the desired probability =
1 – P(A) – P(B) = 1 - .116 - .005 = .879

18.
a. There are six simple events, corresponding to the outcomes CDP, CPD, DCP, DPC, PCD,
and PDC. The probability assigned to each is .

b. P( C ranked first) = P( {CPD, CDP} ) =

c. P( C ranked first and D last) = P({CPD}) =

19. Let event A be that the selected joint was found defective by inspector A. P(A) = . Let
event B be analogous for inspector B. P(B) = . Compound event AB is the event that
the selected joint was found defective by at least one of the two inspectors. P(AB) = .

a. The desired event is (AB), so we use the complement rule:

P(AB) = 1 - P(AB) = 1 - = = .8841

b. The desired event is B  A. P(B  A) = P(B) - P(A  B).

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB),
= .0724 + .0751 - .1159 = .0316
So P(B  A) = P(B) - P(A  B)
= .0751 - .0316 = .0435

20. Let S1, S2 and S3 represent the swing and night shifts, respectively. Let C1 and C2 represent
the unsafe conditions and unrelated to conditions, respectively.
a. The simple events are {S1,C1}, {S1,C2}, {S2,C1}, {S2,C2},{S3,C1}, {S3,C2}.

b. P({C1})= P({S1,C1},{S2,C1},{S3,C1})= .10 + .08 + .05 = .23

c. P({S1}) = 1 - P({S1,C1}, {S1,C2}) = 1 – ( .10 + .35) = .55

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21.
a. P({M,H}) = .10

b. P(low auto) = P[{(L,N}, (L,L), (L,M), (L,H)}] = .04 + .06 + .05 + .03 = .18 Following a
similar pattern, P(low homeowner’s) = .06 + .10 + .03 = .19

c. P(same deductible for both) = P[{ LL, MM, HH }] = .06 + .20 + .15 = .41

d. P(deductibles are different) = 1 – P(same deductibles) = 1 - .41 = .59

e. P(at least one low deductible) = P[{ LN, LL, LM, LH, ML, HL }]
= .04 + .06 + .05 + .03 + .10 + .03 = .31

f. P(neither low) = 1 – P(at least one low) = 1 - .31 = .69

22.
a. P(A1  A2) = P(A1) + P(A2) - P(A1  A2) = .4 + .5 - .6 = .3

b. P(A1  A2) = P(A1) - P(A1  A2) = .4 - .3 = .1

c. P(exactly one) = P(A1  A2) - P(A1  A2) = .6 - .3 = .3

23. Outcomes: (A,B) (A,C1) (A,C2) (A,F) (B,A) (B,C1) (B,C2) (B,F)
(C1,A) (C1,B) (C1,C2) (C1,F) (C2,A) (C2,B) (C2,C1) (C2,F)
(F,A) (F,B) (F,C1) (F,C2)
a. P[(A,B) or (B,A)] =

b. P(at least one C) =

c. P(at least 15 years) = 1 – P(at most 14 years)

= 1 – P[(3,6) or (6,3) or (3,7) or (7,3) or (3,10) or (10,3) or (6,7) or (7,6)]
=

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24. Since A is contained in B, then B can be written as the union of A and

(B  A), two mutually exclusive events. (See diagram).

From Axiom 3, P[A  (B  A)] = P(A) + P(B  A). Substituting P(B),

P(B) = P(A) + P(B  A) or P(B) - P(A) = P(B  A) . From Axiom 1,
P(B  A)  0, so P(B)  P(A) or P(A)  P(B). For general events A and B, P(A  B) 
P(A), and P(A  B)  P(A).

25. P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) = .65

P(A  C) = .55, P(B  C) = .60
P(A  B  C) = P(A  B  C) – P(A) – P(B) – P(C)
+ P(A  B) + P(A  C) + P(B  C)
= .98 - .7 - .8 - .75 + .65 + .55 + .60
= .53

a. P(A  B  C) = .98, as given.

b. P(none selected) = 1 - P(A  B  C) = 1 - .98 = .02

c. P(only automatic transmission selected) = .03 from the Venn Diagram

d. P(exactly one of the three) = .03 + .08 + .13 = .24

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26.
a. P(A1) = 1 – P(A1) = 1 - .12 = .88

b. P(A1  A2 ) = P(A1) + P(A2) - P(A1  A2 ) = .12 + .07 - .13 = .06

c. P(A1  A2  A3) = P(A1  A2 ) - P(A1  A2  A3 ) = .06 - .01 = .05

d. P(at most two errors) = 1 – P(all three types)

= 1 - P(A1  A2  A3 )
= 1 - .01 = .99

27. Assume that the computers are numbered 1 – 6 as described. Also assume that computers 1
and 2 are the laptops. Possible outcomes are (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
(3,4) (3,5) (3,6) (4,5) (4,6) and (5,6).

1
a. P(both are laptops) = P[{ (1,2)}] = 15 =.067

b. P(both are desktops) = P[{(3,4) (3,5) (3,6) (4,5) (4,6) (5,6)}] = = .40

c. P(at least one desktop) = 1 – P(no desktops)

= 1 – P(both are laptops)
= 1 – .067 = .933

d. P(at least one of each type) = 1 – P(both are the same)

= 1 – P(both laptops) – P(both desktops)
= 1 - .067 - .40 = .533

28. There are 27 equally likely outcomes.

a. P(all the same) = P[(1,1,1) or (2,2,2) or (3,3,3)] =

b. P(at most 2 are assigned to the same station) = 1 – P(all 3 are the same)
=

c. P(all different) = [{(1,2,3) (1,3,2) (2,1,3) (2,3,1) (3,1,2) (3,2,1)}]

=

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Section 2.3

29.
a. (26)(26) = 676; (36)(36) = 1296

b. (26)3 = 17,576; (36)3 = 46,656

c. (26)3 = 456,976; (36)4 = 1,679,616

d. 1 – 97,786/(36)4 = .942

30.
a. If the A’s are distinguishable from one another, and similarly for the B’s, C’s and D’s,
then there are 12! Possible chain molecules. Six of these are:
A1A2A3B2C3C1D3C2D1D2B3B1, A1A3A2B2C3C1D3C2D1D2B3B1
A2A1A3B2C3C1D3C2D1D2B3B1, A2A3A1B2C3C1D3C2D1D2B3B1
A3A1A2B2C3C1D3C2D1D2B3B1, A3A2A1B2C3C1D3C2D1D2B3B1
These 6 (=3!) differ only with respect to ordering of the 3 A’s. In general, groups of 6
chain molecules can be created such that within each group only the ordering of the A’s
is different. When the A subscripts are suppressed, each group of 6 “collapses” into a
single molecule (B’s, C’s and D’s are still distinguishable). At this point there are
molecules. Now suppressing subscripts on the B’s, C’s and D’s in turn gives ultimately
chain molecules.

b. Think of the group of 3 A’s as a single entity, and similarly for the B’s, C’s, and D’s.
Then there are 4! Ways to order these entities, and thus 4! Molecules in which the A’s are
contiguous, the B’s, C’s, and D’s are also. Thus, P(all together) =
.

31.
a. (n1)(n2) = (9)(27) = 243

b. (n1)(n2)(n3) = (9)(27)(15) = 3645, so such a policy could be carried out for 3645
successive nights, or approximately 10 years, without repeating exactly the same
program.

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32.
a. 5434 = 240

b. 1134 = 12

c. 4333 = 108

d. # with at least on Sony = total # - # with no Sony = 240 – 108 = 132

e. P(at least one Sony) =

P(exactly one Sony) = P(only Sony is receiver)

+ P(only Sony is CD player)
+ P(only Sony is deck)

33.
a. 9! = 362,880

b. 9! Starting line-ups and 9! batting orders  (9!)(9!) = 131,681,894,400

c. × = (10)(210) = 2,100

34.

a.

b.

c. P(exactly 4 have cracks) =

d. P(at least 4) = P(exactly 4) + P(exactly 5) =

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35.
a. n1 = 3, n2 = 4, n3 = 5, so n1  n2  n3 = 60 runs

b. n1 = 1, (just one temperature), n2 = 2, n3 = 5 implies that there are 10 such runs.

c. There are ways to select the 5 runs. Each catalyst is used in 12 different runs, so

the number of ways of selecting one run from each of these 5 groups is 125. Thus the

desired probability is

36. Seats:

P(J&P in 1&2)

P(J&P next to each other) = P(J&P in 1&2) + … + P(J&P in 5&6)

=
P(at least one H next to his W) = 1 – P( no H next to his W)
We count the # of ways of no H next to his W as follows:
# of orderings with a H-W pair in seats #1 and 3 and no H next to his W = 6*  4  1*  2#
 1  1 = 48
*= pair, # =can’t put the mate of seat #2 here or else a H-W pair would be in #5 and 6.

# of orderings without a H-W pair in seats #1 and 3, and no H next to his W = 6  4  2#  2

 2  1 = 192
#
= can’t be mate of person in seat #1 or #2.
So, # of seating arrangements with no H next to W = 48 + 192 = 240
And P(no H next to his W) = , so

P(at least one H next to his W) = 1 –

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37.

a. P(all from day shift) =

b. P(all from same shift) = = .0048 + .0006 + .0000

= .0054

c. P(at least two shifts represented) = 1 – P(all from same shift) = 1 – .0054 = .9946

d. Let A1 = day shift unrepresented, A2 = swing shift unrepresented, and A3 = graveyard

shift unrepresented. Then we want P(A1  A2  A3).

P(A1) = P(day unrepresented) = P(all from swing and graveyard) = . Similarly,

P(A2) = and P(A3) = . Next, P(A1  A2) = P(all from graveyard) = .

Similarly, P(A1  A3) = and P(A2  A3) = . Finally, P(A1  A2  A3) = 0,

since at least one shift must be represented.

So, P(A1  A2  A3) = + + – – – + 0 = .2885.

38.

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a. P(selecting 2 - 75 watt bulbs) =

b. P(all three are the same) =

c.

d. It is necessary to examine at least six bulbs if and only if the first five light bulbs were of
the 40-W or 60-W variety. The chance of this event is

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39.
a. P(at least one F among 1st 3) = 1 – P(no F’s among 1st 3)
=1–
An alternative method to calculate P(no F’s among 1st 3) would be to choose none of the

females and 3 of the 4 males, as follows: , obviously producing

the same result.

b. P(all F’s among 1st 5) =

c. P(orderings are different) = 1 – P(orderings are the same for both semesters)
There are 8! possible orderings for the second semester, only one of which would match
the first semester (whatever ordering that was). So, P(orderings are different) = 1 – 1/8! =
.999975.

40.
a. Because order is important, we’ll use P8,3 = 8(7)(6) = 336.

b. Order doesn’t matter here, so we use C30,6 = 593,775.

c. From each group we choose 2:

d. The numerator comes from part c and the denominator from part b:
e. We use the same denominator as in part d. We can have all zinfandel, all merlot, or all
cabernet, so P(all same) = P(all z) + P(all m) + P(all c) =

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41.
a. We want to choose all of the 5 cordless, and 5 of the 10 others, to be among the first 10

serviced, so the desired probability is

b. Isolating one group, say the cordless phones, we want the other two groups represented in
the last 5 serviced. So we choose 5 of the 10 others, except that we don’t want to include
the outcomes where the last five are all the same.

So we have . But we have three groups of phones, so the desired probability is

c. We want to choose 2 of the 5 cordless, 2 of the 5 cellular, and 2 of the corded phones:

42. There are = 10 possible ways to select the positions for B’s votes: BBAAA, BABAA,

BAABA, BAAAB, ABBAA, ABABA, ABAAB, AABBA, AABAB, and AAABB. Only the
last two have A ahead of B throughout the vote count. Since the outcomes are equally likely,
the desired probability is 2/10 = .20.

43. # of 10 high straights = 44444 ( 4 – 10’s, 4 – 9’s , etc)

P(10 high straight) =

P(straight) = (Multiply by 10 because there are 10 different card

values that could be high: Ace, King, etc.) There are only 40 straight flushes (10 in each suit),
so

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P(straight flush) =

44.

The number of subsets of size k = the number of subsets of size n-k, because to each subset of
size k there corresponds exactly one subset of size n-k (the n-k objects not in the subset of
size k).

Section 2.4

45.
a. P(A) = .106 + .141 + .200 = .447, P(C) =.215 + .200 + .065 + .020 = .500 P(A  C)
= .200

b. P(A|C) = . If we know that the individual came from ethnic

group 3, the probability that he has type A blood is .40. P(C|A) =

. If a person has type A blood, the probability that he is

from ethnic group 3 is .447

c. Define event D = {ethnic group 1 selected}. We are asked for P(D|B) =

. P(DB)=.082 + .106 + .004 = .192, P(B) = 1 – P(B) = 1

– [.008 + .018 + .065] = .909

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 Chapter 2: Probability

46.

a. P(+) = .0588

b. P(has d | +) =

c. P(doesn’t have d | - ) =

47.

a. P(BA) =

b. P(BA) =

c. P(AB) =

d. P(AB) =

e. P(AAB) =

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Chapter 2: Probability

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 Chapter 2: Probability

48.

a. P(A2A1) =

b. P(A1  A2  A3A1) =

c. We want P[(exactly one)  (at least one)].

P(at least one) = P(A1  A2  A3)
= .12 + .07 + .05 – .06 – .03 – .02 + .01 = .14
Also notice that the intersection of the two events is just the 1st event, since “exactly one”
is totally contained in “at least one.”

So P[(exactly one)  (at least one)]=

d. The pieces of this equation can be found in your answers to exercise 26 (section 2.2):

Now, the desired conditional probability is

49. P(A1) = .22, P(A2) = .25, P(A3) = .28, P(A1  A2) = .11, P(A1  A3) = .05, P(A2  A3) = .07,
P(A1  A2  A3) = .01

a. P(A2A1) =

b. P(A2  A3A1) =

c.

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 Chapter 2: Probability

d.

This is the probability of being awarded all three projects given that at least one project
was awarded.

50.
a. P(M  LS  PR) = .05, directly from the table of probabilities

b. P(M  Pr) = P(M,Pr,LS) + P(M,Pr,SS) = .05+.07 = .12

c. P(SS) = sum of 9 probabilities in SS table = .56, P(LS) = 1 - .56 = .44

d. P(M) = .08+.07+.12+.10+.05+.07 = .49

P(Pr) = .02+.07+.07+.02+.05+.02 = .25

e. P(M|SS  Pl) =

f. P(SS|M  Pl) =

P(LS|M Pl) = 1 - P(SS|M Pl) = 1 - .444 = .556

51.
a. P(R from 1st  R from 2nd ) = P(R from 2nd | R from 1st ) P(R from 1st )

b. P(same numbers) = P(both selected balls are the same color)

= P(both red) + P(both green) =

52. P(0 def in sample | 0 def in batch) = 1

P(0 def in sample | 1 def in batch) =

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 Chapter 2: Probability

P(1 def in sample | 1 def in batch) =

P(0 def in sample | 2 def in batch) =

P(1 def in sample | 2 def in batch) =

P(2 def in sample | 2 def in batch) =

a. P(0 def in batch | 0 def in sample) =

P(1 def in batch | 0 def in sample) =

P(2 def in batch | 0 def in sample) =

53. P(BA) = (since B is contained in A, A  B = B)

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 Chapter 2: Probability

54. The first desired probability is P(both bulbs are 75 wattat least one is 75 watt).

P(at least one is 75 watt) = 1 – P(none are 75 watt) = 1 – .

Notice that P[(both are 75 watt)(at least one is 75 watt)] = P(both are 75 watt) =

. So P(both bulbs are 75 wattat least one is 75 watt) =

Second, we want P(same rating at least one NOT 75 watt).

P(at least one NOT 75 watt) = 1 – P(both are 75 watt)

=1– .

Now, P[(same rating)(at least one not 75 watt)] = P(both 40 watt or both 60 watt).

P(both 40 watt or both 60 watt) =

55. Let A = {carries Lyme disease} and B = {carries HGE}. We are told P(A) = .16, P(B) = .10,
and P(A  B | A  B) = .10. From this last statement and the fact that A  B is contained in
A  B,

.10 =  P(A  B) = .10P(A  B) = .10[P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)] = .10[.10 + .16

– P(A  B)]  1.1P(A  B) = .026  P(A  B) = .02364.

Finally, the desired probability is P(A | B) = = .2364.

56.

57. P(B|A) > P(B)

↔ P(B|A) + P(B′|A) > P(B) + P(B′|A)
↔ 1 > P(B) + P(B′|A) by Exercise 56 (with the letters switched)
↔ 1 – P(B) > P(B′|A)
↔ P(B′) > P(B′|A), QED

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 Chapter 2: Probability

58.

= P(A|C) + P(B|C) – P(A  B | C)

59.

a. P(A2  B) = .21

b. P(B) = P(A1  B) + P(A2  B) + P(A3  B) = .455

c. P(A1|B) = , P(A2|B) = , P(A3|B) = 1 – .264

– .462 = .274

60.

a. P(not disc | has loc) =

b. P(disc | no loc) =

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 Chapter 2: Probability

61. Let A1 be the event that #1 fails and A2 be the event that #2 fails. We assume that P(A1) =
P(A2) = q and that P(A1 | A2) = P(A2 | A1) = r. Then one approach is as follows:
P(A1  A2) = P(A2 | A1)  P(A1) = rq = .01
P(A1  A2) = P(A1  A2) + P(A1 A2) + P(A1  A2) = rq + 2(1-r)q = .07
These two equations give 2q - .01 = .07, from which q = .04 and r = .25. Alternatively, with t
= P(A1 A2) = P(A1  A2) , t + .01 + t = .07, implying t = .03 and thus q = .04 without
reference to conditional probability.

a. P(0 def in batch | 1 def in sample) = 0

P(1 def in batch | 1 def in sample) =

P(2 def in batch | 1 def in sample) =

62. Using a tree diagram, B = basic, D = deluxe, W = warranty purchase, W’ = no warranty

We want P(B|W) =

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 Chapter 2: Probability

63.
a.

b. P(A  B  C) = .75  .9  .8 = .5400

c. P(B  C) = P(A  B  C) + P(A  B  C)

=.5400+.25.8.7 = .6800

d. P(C) = P(A  B  C)+P(A  B  C) + P(A  B  C) + P(A  B  C)

= .54+.045+.14+.015 = .74

e. P(A|B  C) =

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 Chapter 2: Probability

64. Let event A be that the individual is more than 6 feet tall. Let event B be that the individual is
a professional basketball player. Then P (AB) = the probability of the individual being more
than 6 feet tall, knowing that the individual is a professional basketball player, and P (BA) =
the probability of the individual being a professional basketball player, knowing that the
individual is more than 6 feet tall. P (AB) will be larger. Most professional BB players are
tall, so the probability of an individual in that reduced sample space being more than 6 feet
tall is very large. The number of individuals that are pro BB players is small in relation to the
# of males more than 6 feet tall.

65.

P(satis) = .51

P(mean | satis) =

P(median | satis) = .2941

P(mode | satis) = .3137
So Mean (and not Mode!) is the most likely author, while Median is least.

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 Chapter 2: Probability

66. Let E, C, and L be the events associated with e-mail, cell phones, and laptops, respectively.
We are told P(E) = 40%, P(C) = 30%, P(L) = 25%, P(EC) = 23%, P(E′C′L′) = 51%,
P(E|L) = 88%, and P(L|C) = 70%.

a. P(C|E) = P(EC)/P(E) = .23/.40 = .575

b. P(C|L) = P(CL)/P(L) = P(C)P(L|C)/P(L) = .30(.70)/.25 = .84

c. P(C|EL) = P(CEL)/P(EL). For the denominator, P(EL) = P(L)P(E|L) = (.25)

(.88) = .22. For the numerator, use P(ECL) = 1 – P(E′C′L′) = 1 – .51 = .49 and
write
P(ECL) = P(C) + P(E) + P(L) – P(EC) – P(CL) – P(EL) + P(CEL)
 .49 = .30 + .40 + .25 – .23 – .30(.70) – .22 + P(CEL)  P(CEL) = .20.
So, finally, P(C|EL) = .20/.22 = .9091

67. Let T denote the event that a randomly selected person is, in fact, a terrorist. Apply Bayes’
Theorem, using P(T) = 1,000/300,000,000 = .0000033:

P(T|+) = =

= .003289. That is to say, roughly 0.3%

of all people “flagged” as terrorists would be actual terrorists in this scenario.

68. Define events A1, A2, and A3 as flying with airline 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Events 0, 1, and
2 are 0, 1, and 2 flights are late, respectively. Event DC = the event that the flight to DC is
late, and event LA = the event that the flight to LA is late. Creating a tree diagram as
described in the hint, the probabilities of the second generation branches are calculated as
follows: For the A1 branch, P(0|A1) = P[DCLA] = P[DC]  P[LA] = (.7)(.9) = .63;
P(1|A1) = P[(DCLA)  (DCLA)] = (.7)(.1) + (.3)(.9) = .07 + .27 = .34; P(2|A1) =
P[DCLA] = P[DC]  P[LA] = (.3)(.1) = .03. Notice that we have had to assume events DC
and LA are independent for all airlines. Follow a similar pattern for A2 and A3.

From the law of total probability, we know that

P(1) = P(A11) + P(A21) + P(A21)
= (from tree diagram below) .170 + .105 + .09 = .365.

We wish to find P(A1|1), P(A2|1), and P(A2|1).

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 Chapter 2: Probability

P(A1|1) = ;

P(A2|1) = ;

P(A3|1) = .

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 Chapter 2: Probability

69.

a. P(U  F  Cr) = .1260

b. P(Pr  NF  Cr) = .05

c. P(Pr  Cr) = .0625 + .05 = .1125

d. P(F  Cr) = .0840 + .1260 + .0625 = .2725

e. P(Cr) = .5325

f. P(PR | Cr) =

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 Chapter 2: Probability

Section 2.5

70. P(A  B) = P(B) – P(A  B) = P(B) - P(A)  P(B) = [1 – P(A)]  P(B) = P(A) P(B).

Alternatively,

71.
a. Since the events are independent, then A and B are independent, too. (See paragraph
below equation 2.7.) P(B|A) = . P(B) = 1 - .7 = .3

b. P(A  B)=P(A) + P(B) – P(A)P(B) = .4 + .7 – (.4)(.7) = .82

c. P(AB| A B) =

72. P(A1  A2) = .11, P(A1)  P(A2) = .055. A1 and A2 are not independent.
P(A1  A3) = .05, P(A1)  P(A3) = .0616. A1 and A3 are not independent.
P(A2  A3) = .07, P(A2)  P(A3) = .07. A2 and A3 are independent.

73. Using the definition, two events A and B are independent if P(A|B) = P(A);
P(A|B) = .6125; P(A) = .50; .6125  .50, so A and B are dependent.
Using the multiplication rule, the events are independent if
P(A  B)=P(A) P(B);
P(A  B) = .25; P(A)  P(B) = (.5)(.4) = .2. .25  .2, so A and B are dependent.

74. Using subscripts to differentiate between the selected individuals,

P(O1  O2) = P(O1)P(O2) = (.44)(.44) = .1936
P(two individuals match) = P(A1A2)+P(B1B2) + P(AB1AB2) + P(O1O2)
= .422 + .102 + .042 + .442 = .3816

75. Let event E be the event that an error was signaled incorrectly. We want P(at least one
signaled incorrectly) = P(E1  E2  … E10) = 1 - P(E1  E2  … E10) . P(E) =1 - .05
= .95. For 10 independent points, P(E1  E2  … E10) = P(E1 )P(E2 )…P(E10) so = P(E1
 E2  … E10) = 1 - [.95]10 = .401. Similarly, for 25 points, the desired probability is =1 -
[P(E)]25 =1 - (.95)25=.723

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 Chapter 2: Probability

76. P(no error on any particular question) = .9, so P(no error on any of the 10 questions) =(.9)10
= .3487. Then P(at least one error) = 1 – (.9)10 = .6513. For p replacing .1, the two
probabilities are (1-p)n and 1 – (1-p)n.

77. Event A: { (3,1)(3,2)(3,3)(3,4)(3,5)(3,6) }, P(A) = ;

Event B: { (1,4)(2,4)(3,4)(4,4)(5,4)(6,4) }, P(B) = ;

Event C: { (1,6)(2,5)(3,4)(4,3)(5,2)(6,1) }, P(C) = ;

Event AB: { (3,4) }; P(AB) = ;

Event AC: { (3,4) }; P(AC) = ;

Event BC: { (3,4) }; P(AC) = ;

Event ABC: { (3,4) }; P(ABC) = ;

P(A)P(B)= =P(AB)

P(A)P(C)= =P(AC)

P(B)P(C)= =P(BC)
The events are pairwise independent.
P(A)P(B) P(C)= = P(ABC)
The events are not mutually independent

78. P(at least one opens) = 1 – P(none open) = 1 – (.05)5 = .99999969

P(at least one fails to open) = 1 – P(all open) = 1 – (.95)5 = .2262

79. Let A1 = older pump fails, A2 = newer pump fails, and x = P(A1  A2). Then P(A1) = .10 + x,
P(A2) = .05 + x, and x = P(A1  A2) = P(A1) P(A2) = (.10 + x)( .05 + x) . The resulting
quadratic equation, x2 - .85x + .005 = 0, has roots x = .0059 and x = .8441. Hopefully the
smaller root is the actual probability of system failure.

80. P(system works) = P( 1 – 2 works  3 – 4 works)

= P( 1 – 2 works) + P( 3 – 4 works) - P( 1 – 2 works  3 – 4 works)
= P(1 works  2 works) + P(3 works  4 works) – P( 1 – 2 )  P(3 – 4)
= ( .9+.9-.81) + (.9)(.9) – (.9+.9-.81)(.9)(.9)
= .99 + .81 - .8019 = .9981

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 Chapter 2: Probability

81.

Using the hints, let P(Ai) = p, and x = p2, then P(system lifetime exceeds t0) = p2 + p2 – p4 =
2p2 – p4 = 2x – x2. Now, set this equal to .99, or 2x – x2 = .99  x2 – 2x + .99 = 0. Solving
for x gives p2 = x = 0.9 or 1.1, and so p = 1.049 or .9487. Since the value we want is a
probability, and has to be ≤ 1, we use the value of p = .9487.

82. Let q denote the probability that a rivet is defective.

a. P(seam need rework) = .20 = 1 – P(seam doesn’t need rework)

= 1 – P(no rivets are defective)
= 1 – P(1st isn’t def  …  25th isn’t def)
= 1 – (1 – q)25, so .80 = (1 – q)25, 1 – q = (.80)1/25, and thus q = 1
- .99111 = .00889.

b. The desired condition is .10 = 1 – (1 – q)25, i.e. (1 – q)25 = .90, from which q = 1 - .99579
= .00421.

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 Chapter 2: Probability

83. P(both detect the defect) = 1 – P(at least one doesn’t) = 1 - .2 = .8

a. P(1st detects  2nd doesn’t) = P(1st detects) – P(1st does  2nd does)
= .9 - .8 = .1
Similarly, P(1st doesn’t  2nd does) = .1, so P(exactly one does)= .1+.1= .2

b. P(neither detects a defect) = 1 – [P(both do) + P(exactly 1 does)]

= 1 – [.8+.2] = 0
so P(all 3 escape) = (0)(0)(0) = 0.

84. P(system works) = P( 1 – 2 works  3 – 4 – 5 – 6 works  7 works)

= P( 1 – 2 works)  P( 3 – 4 – 5 – 6 works) P( 7 works)
= (.99) (.9639) (.9) = .8588
With the subsystem in figure 2.14 connected in parallel to this subsystem,
P(system works) = .8588+.927 – (.8588)(.927) = .9897

85.
a. Let D1 = detection on 1st fixation, D2 = detection on 2nd fixation.
P(detection in at most 2 fixations) = P(D1) + P(D1  D2)
= P(D1) + P(D2 | D1 )P(D1)
= p + p(1 – p) = p(2 – p).

b. Define D1, D2, … , Dn as in a. Then P(at most n fixations)

= P(D1) + P(D1  D2) + P(D1  D2  D3) + …+ P(D1  D2  …  Dn-1  Dn)
= p + p(1 – p) + p(1 – p)2 + … + p(1 – p)n-1

= p [ 1 + (1 – p) + (1 – p)2 + … + (1 – p)n-1] =

Alternatively, P(at most n fixations) = 1 – P(at least n+1 are req’d)

= 1 – P(no detection in 1st n fixations)
= 1 – P(D1  D2  …  Dn )
= 1 – (1 – p)n

c. P(no detection in 3 fixations) = (1 – p)3

d. P(passes inspection) = P({not flawed}  {flawed and passes})

= P(not flawed) + P(flawed and passes)
= .9 + P(passes | flawed) P(flawed) = .9+(1 – p)3(.1)

e. P(flawed | passed) =

For p = .5, P(flawed | passed) =

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 Chapter 2: Probability

86.

a. P(A) = , P(B) = P(A  B) + P(A  B)

= P(B|A) P(A) + P(B|A) P(A) =

P(A  B) = .039984; since P(A  B)  P(A)P(B), the events are not independent.

b. P(A  B) = .04. Very little difference. Yes.

c. P(A) = P(B) = .2, P(A)P(B) = .04, but P(A  B) = P(B|A)P(A) = , so the

two numbers are quite different.
In a, the sample size is small relative to the “population” size, while here it is not.

87. P(pass) = .70

a. (.70)(.70)(.70) = .343

b. 1 – P(all pass) = 1 - .343 = .657

c. P(exactly one passes) = (.70)(.30)(.30) + (.30)(.70)(.30) + (.30)(.30)(.70) = .189

d. P(# pass  1) = P(0 pass) + P(exactly one passes) = (.3)3 + .189 = .216

e. P(3 pass | 1 or more pass) =

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 Chapter 2: Probability

88.
a. For route #1, P(late) = P(stopped at 2 or 3 or 4 crossings)
= 1 – P(stopped at 0 or 1) = 1 – [.94 + 4(.9)3(.1)]
= .0523
For route #2, P(late) = P(stopped at 1 or 2 crossings)
= 1 – P(stopped at none) = 1 - .81 = .19
thus route #1 should be taken.

b. P(4 crossing route | late) =

89.

P(at most 1 is lost) = 1 – P(both lost)

= 1 – 2
P(exactly 1 lost) = 2(1 - )

P(exactly 1 | at most 1 ) =

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 Chapter 2: Probability

Supplementary Exercises

90.
a. He will have one type of form left if either 4 withdrawals or 4 course substitutions
remain. This means the first six were either 2 withdrawals and 4 subs or 6 withdrawals

and 0 subs; the desired probability is

b. He can start with the wd forms: W-C-W-C or with the cs forms: C-W-C-W:
# of ways: 6  4  5  3 + 4  6  3  5 = 2(360) = 720;
The total # ways to arrange the four forms: 10  9  8  7 = 5040.
The desired probability is 720/5040 = .1429

91.
a. P(line 1) = ;

P(Crack) =

b. P(Blemish | line 1) = .15

c. P(Surface Defect) =

P(line 1 and Surface Defect) =

So P(line 1 | Surface Defect) =

92.

a.

b.

c. # having at least 1 of the 10 best = 1140 - # of crews having none of 10 best = 1140 -

- 120 = 1020

d. P(best will not work) =

93. P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A)P(B)

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 Chapter 2: Probability

.626 = P(A) + P(B) - .144

So P(A) + P(B) = .770 and P(A)P(B) = .144.

Let x = P(A) and y = P(B), then using the first equation, y = .77 – x, and substituting this into
the second equation, we get x ( .77 – x ) = .144 or
x2 - .77x + .144 = 0. Use the quadratic formula to solve:

or .45

So P(A) = .45 and P(B) = .32

94.
a. (.8)(.8)(.8) = .512

b.

.512+.032+.032+.032 = .608

c. P(1 sent | 1 received) =

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 Chapter 2: Probability

95.

a. P(pass inspection) = P(pass initially  passes after recrimping) = P(pass initially) +

P( fails initially  goes to recrimping  is corrected after recrimping)
= .95 + (.05)(.80)(.60) (following path “bad-good-good” on tree diagram)
= .974

b. P(needed no recrimping | passed inspection) =

96. P(E1  late) = P( late | E1 )P(E1) = (.02)(.40) = .008

97. When three experiments are performed, there are 3 different ways in which detection can
occur on exactly 2 of the experiments: (i) #1 and #2 and not #3 (ii) #1 and not #2 and #3;
(iii) not#1 and #2 and #3. If the impurity is present, the probability of exactly 2 detections in
three (independent) experiments is (.8)(.8)(.2) + (.8)(.2)(.8) + (.2)(.8)(.8) = .384. If the
impurity is absent, the analogous probability is 3(.1)(.1)(.9) = .027. Thus
P(present | detected in exactly 2 out of 3) =

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98. P(exactly 1 selects category #1 | all 3 are different)

Denominator =

Numerator = 3 P(contestant #1 selects category #1 and the other two select two different
categories)

The desired probability is then

99.
a. There are 54321 = 120 possible orderings, so P(BCDEF) =

b. # orderings in which F is 3rd = 431*21 = 24, ( * because F must be here), so

P(F 3rd) =

c. P(F last) =

100.
a. P(both + ) = P(carrier  both + ) + P(not a carrier  both + )
=P(both + | carrier) x P(carrier)
+ P(both + | not a carrier) x P(not a carrier)
= (.90)2(.01) + (.05)2(.99) = .01058
P(both – ) = (.10)2(.01) + (.95)2(.99) = .89358
P(tests agree) = .01058 + .89358 = .90416

b. P(carrier | both + ve) =

101. P(detection by the end of the nth glimpse) = 1 – P(not detected in 1st n)
= 1 – P(G1  G2  …  Gn ) = 1 - P(G1)P(G2) … P(Gn)

= 1 – (1 – p1)(1 – p2) … (1 – pn) = 1 -

102. P(F hasn’t heard after 10 times) = P(not on #1  not on #2 … not on #10)

103.

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 Chapter 2: Probability

104.
a. The law of total probability gives

P(late) =

= (.02)(.40) + (.01)(.50) + (.05)(.10) = .018

b. P(E1 | on time) = 1 – P(E1 | on time)

105. Let B denote the event that a component needs rework. Then

P(B) = = (.05)(.50) + (.08)(.30) + (.10)(.20) = .069

Thus P(A1 | B) =

P(A2 | B) =

P(A3 | B) =

106.

a. P(all different) =

P(at least two the same) = 1 - .883 = .117

b. P(at least two the same) = .476 for k=22, and = .507 for k=23

c. P(at least two have the same SS number) = 1 – P(all different)

= 1 - .956 = .044
Thus P(at least one “coincidence”) = P(BD coincidence  SS coincidence)
= .117 + .044 – (.117)(.044) = .156

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107.

a. P(G | R1 < R2 < R3) = , P(B | R1 < R2 < R3) = .33, classify as granite.

b. P(G | R1 < R3 < R2) = < .5, so classify as basalt.

P(G | R3 < R1 < R2) = , so classify as basalt.

c. P(erroneous classif) = P(B classif as G) + P(G classif as B)

= P(classif as G | B)P(B) + P(classif as B | G)P(G)
= P(R1 < R2 < R3 | B)(.75) + P(R1 < R3 < R2 or R3 < R1 < R2 | G)(.25)
= (.10)(.75) + (.25 + .15)(.25) = .175

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d. For what values of p will P(G | R1<R2<R3) > .5, P(G | R1 < R3 < R2) > .5,
P(G | R3 < R1 < R2) > .5?

P(G | R1 < R2 < R3) = iff

P(G | R1 < R3 < R2) = iff

P(G | R3 < R1 < R2) = iff (most restrictive)

If always classify as granite.

108. Let A = 1st functions, B = 2nd functions, so P(B) = .9, P(A  B) = .96, P(A  B)=.75. Thus,
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A  B) = P(A) + .9 - .75 = .96, implying P(A) = .81.

This gives P(B | A) =

109.
a. P(walks on 4th pitch) = P(1st 4 pitches are balls) = (.5)4 = .0625

b. P(walks on 6th) = P(2 of the 1st 5 are strikes, #6 is a ball)

= P(2 of the 1st 5 are strikes)P(#6 is a ball)
= [10(.5)5](.5) = .15625

c. P(Batter walks) = P(walks on 4th) + P(walks on 5th) + P(walks on 6th)

= .0625 + 4(.5)5 + .15625 = .34375
d. P(first batter scores while no one is out) = P(first 4 batters walk)
= (.34375)4 = .014

110.

a. P(all in correct room) =

b. The 9 outcomes which yield incorrect assignments are: 2143, 2341, 2413, 3142, 3412,
3421, 4123, 4321, and 4312, so P(all incorrect) =

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111.
a. P(all full) = P(A  B  C) = (.6)(.5)(.4) = .12
P(at least one isn’t full) = 1 – P(all full) = 1 - .12 = .88

b. P(only NY is full) = P(A  B  C) = P(A)P(B)P(C) = .18

Similarly, P(only Atlanta is full) = .12 and P(only LA is full) = .08
So P(exactly one full) = .18 + .12 + .08 = .38

112. Note: s = 0 means that the very first candidate interviewed is hired. Each entry below is the
candidate hired for the given policy and outcome.

Outcome s=0 s=1 s=2 s=3 Outcome s=0 s=1 s=2 s=3
1234 1 4 4 4 3124 3 1 4 4
1243 1 3 3 3 3142 3 1 4 2
1324 1 4 4 4 3214 3 2 1 4
1342 1 2 2 2 3241 3 2 1 1
1423 1 3 3 3 3412 3 1 1 2
1432 1 2 2 2 3421 3 2 2 1
2134 2 1 4 4 4123 4 1 3 3
2143 2 1 3 3 4132 4 1 2 2
2314 2 1 1 4 4213 4 2 1 3
2341 2 1 1 1 4231 4 2 1 1
2413 2 1 1 3 4312 4 3 1 2
2431 2 1 1 1 4321 4 3 2 1
s 0 1 2 3
P(hire#1)

So s = 1 is best.

113. P(at least one occurs) = 1 – P(none occur) = 1 – (1 – p1)(1 – p2)(1 – p3)(1 – p4)
P(at least two occur) = 1 – P(none or 1 occur) = 1 – [(1 – p1)(1 – p2)(1 – p3)(1 – p4) +
p1(1 – p2)(1 – p3)(1 – p4) + (1 – p1) p2(1 – p3)(1 – p4) + (1 – p1)(1 – p2)p3(1 – p4) +
(1 – p1)(1 – p2)(1 – p3)p4]

114. P(A1) = P(draw slip 1 or 4) = ½; P(A2) = P(draw slip 2 or 4) = ½;

P(A3) = P(draw slip 3 or 4) = ½; P(A1  A2) = P(draw slip 4) = ¼;
P(A2  A3) = P(draw slip 4) = ¼; P(A1  A3) = P(draw slip 4) = ¼
Hence P(A1  A2) = P(A1)P(A2) = ¼, P(A2  A3) = P(A2)P(A3) = ¼,
P(A1  A3) = P(A1)P(A3) = ¼, thus there exists pairwise independence
P(A1  A2  A3) = P(draw slip 4) = ¼  1/8 = P(A1)P(A2)P(A3), so the events are not
mutually independent.

115. P(A1| A2  A3) = = P(A1).

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