Demography & Population Studies 1

Demography & Population Studies

 Demography >> derived from the Greek word demos >> people >> science
of population study.
 Means >> the quantitative study of the size, structure, characteristics and
territorial distribution of human populations and the changes occurring
in them over a period of time.
 >> not associated with other variables which often affect population such as
social, economic, political, biological, genetic, geographical variables etc.
 Size refers >> actual number of population,
 Structure refers >> age and sex structure of the population
 Characteristics refers >> marital status, literacy, language, ethnicity, religion,
income etc,
 Territorial distribution >> distribution pattern of the population within a
defined territory.

Demography & Population Studies 2

 Population Studies
 In the broader sense Demography >> population studies + quantitative study
of the population, the study of interrelationships between population and
socio-economic, cultural and other variables.
 Therefore for planning or research >> the causative variables (social,
economic, political etc…..) for population change >> need to be
considered

Determinants (key factors) of Population Change

Forms of change in territorial boundaries, ie. The changes in size, growth &
structure and distribution of a population are determined mainly by three
types of events:
 Birth (fertility)
 Death (mortality)
 Migration (in-migration and out-migration)
Demography & Population Studies 3
 Determinants for Population Change
 During a given span of time births will increase the population whereas
deaths will decrease the population.
 Similarly, in-migration will add to the existing population while out-migration
will lead to a decrease in the population.
 All three determinants of population change are affected by various socio-
economic and cultural factors.
 Births can be affected by periods of peace or war, prosperity or
depression, marriage rates, attitude towards family size, etc.
 Deaths can be similarly influenced by various factors such as peace or
war, prosperity or depression, crimes, accidents, outbreak of epidemic,
etc.

Demography & Population Studies 4

 Determinants of Population Change
 Migration >> better economic opportunities (mostly), attraction of milder
or more suitable climates, desire for better living or housing conditions
(applies particularly to short distance migration within the same general
locality), and movements for reasons of health, education or retirement.
 >> also influenced by peace or war, prosperity or depression etc.

Sources of Demographic Data

The sources of demographic data are mainly:
 population census
 registration of vital events, and
 sample survey

Demography & Population Studies 5

 Sources of Demographic Data
A. Population Census >> the total process of collecting, compiling,
evaluating, analyzing and publishing demographic, social, economic
data within a specified time to all persons of a country or a well defined
part of a country.

Census started >> very early times from the Sumerian civilization.
mainly for taxation and conscription (compulsory enrollment
for national service) purposes.
Women and children were generally unaccounted for Modern census evolved
during the 17th and 18th centuries.
The process involved complete details of the entire population and the
collection of information about important characteristics of each person
at regular intervals.
The first census was commenced in 1665 in New France (Quebec) and Acadie
(Nova Scotia).
Demography & Population Studies 6
 Sources of Demographic Data
The first census in the U.S.A. was in 1790 and in England in 1801.
After World War II, UN assist >> Administrative and Welfare Planning in
developing countries >> setting up Census operations

Today census of population is considered a vital state function all over the
world.

In census operation >> each individual >> important characteristics such as sex,
age, marital status, religion, literacy, educational attainment, income,
occupation, language etc. is recorded.

>> regular intervals, e.g. every 5 or 10 years. >> conducted by the government.
In Nepal >>every 10 years >> Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) is conducted
every under the National Planning Commission.

Demography & Population Studies 7

 Sources of Demographic Data
B. Registration of Vital Events >> Vital events are
1) a person’s birth 2) death 3) marriage/ divorce.
A birth, death or marriage certificate >> issued as proof >> assists in legal
matters >> citizenship, properties, inheritance etc.
Normally, during Registration, additional information is recorded along with the
record of vital events >> such as information on date of birth, sex, age of
mother, number of previous children, order of birth, residence of mother etc.
In case of Death >> date, age and sex of the deceased, place of occurrence,
residence, cause of death, etc. is recorded.

In developed countries the vital registration system is very effective and the records
are up to date and reliable.
. On the other hand, in the developing countries many events are not
registered so the records generally tend to be incomplete and unreliable.
Demography & Population Studies 8
 Sources of Demographic Data
In Nepal registration of vital events was initially conducted by the Office of the
Registrar under the Ministry of Home. Currently, this is being done by the
municipalities & VDCs.

C. Sample Survey >>

Information is collected only from a sample of the population which is
representative of the whole and from which conclusions can be drawn about
the whole using scientific methods.

It is useful in collecting information when proper registration systems are absent

and when there is a long period before the next census is held.

Specially trained interviewers conduct the survey using specially prepared

questionnaires to obtain the necessary information. As a result the quality of
information can sometimes be better than the other sources.
Advantage >> can be done anytime, in less time and for a lesser cost.
Demography & Population Studies 9
 Population Composition and Distribution,
Population Projection and their Importance in
Planning
 For any planning analysis, it is important to study the population size, its
current composition and distribution and its effect on the social, economic and
cultural environment of the nation or region.
 >> useful management and implementation of all kinds of public works and
land development activities.
 Very useful >> in execute & revision of plans

Population Structure >> a) Sex Structure

 Sex Ratio >> no. of Males per 100 females or vice-versa
 For eg, sex-age ratio >> school age population >> future estimates for
educational institutions, playgrounds, teachers, text books etc. can be made
 Open space requirements as well as the community facilities required by the
different age groups, viz. children, teenagers, families, and old age groups will
also be determined by the population structure.
Demography & Population Studies 10
 Population Structure
b) Age Structure
 Age data are usually available in single years, however, it is customary to
classify the population in five year age groups, e.g. 0-4, 5-9, 10-14 etc (Age
Cohert).
 Age Structure >> Age Pyramid >> also referred to as the Age-Sex
histogram.
 The age-sex pyramid of developing countries normally has a broad base
and tapers towards the top while that of developed countries is
comparatively more uniform.
 As in the case of sex structure, the age structure of the population is also
affected by fertility, mortality and migration.
 In addition, war plays an important role in the age structure as mortality is
high among younger people and fertility tends to fall.
 However, fertility tends to increase soon after a war as evidenced by the
baby boom in the post war period.

Demography & Population Studies 11

Demography & Population Studies 12
 Population Characteristics

 Attributes of the population >> marital status, literacy, income, language,

religion, occupation, household size etc.

 Population Characteristics >>strong co-relation population structure (Sex &

Age).

 For eg, higher rate of marital status will result high fertility whereas higher
literacy and income results low fertility and low mortality. Similarly, fertility can
also be influenced by religion.

Demography & Population Studies 13

 Population Distribution
 Spatial distribution >> is described in terms of spatial density, composition
and dynamics and also seeks to provide explanations for the changes in the
pattern of population distribution.

 Influenced by >> a) geographical factors (Climate, landforms in terms of

altitudes, quality of soil, water, availability of energy and mineral resources etc. )
b) economic and social factors and c) demographic factors.

 Directly affects planning >> allocation of various land uses and where to
provide infrastructure and social and economic facilities.

Demography & Population Studies 14

 Population Projection
 Essential for future planning
 It depends on a time frame set by the plan.
 Depends on the type of the projects For eg. water supply scheme for an
urban area, 50 to 60 or perhaps even 100 years into the future.
 There are various analytical and graphical and mathematical methods of
making population forecasts. The common forms of the analytical approach
are the cohort-survival method, the migration, etc.

Demography & Population Studies 15

 Population Projection
 Age groups and Sex groups >> year by year / five-year interval basis
Normally its done for five years. The fertility ratio is used to fill in estimate of
new persons in the 0-4 year category. Fertility ratio is the number of
children per 1000 females of child bearing age at the end of the five year
time span.
 Migration rates and natural increase rates are estimated from past
trends.
 Graphical methods plot past trends on plain coordinate graph paper and uses
the best-fit straight line projection to estimate the future population.
Mathematical models use simple linear regression (least squares) model,
multiple regression model, non-linear models such as the Gompertz or Logistic
models, etc. etc.

Demography & Population Studies 16

Demography & Population Studies 17
Demography & Population Studies 18
 The total population of Nepal, as of the
census day (25 November 2021)
is 29,164,578, of which the number of
males is 14,253,551 (48.87 %) and the
number of females is 14,911,027 (51.13
%). Accordingly, the sex ratio is 95.59
males per 100 females. May 18, 2023

The population of Nepal has been steadily rising in recent decades. In the June 2001
census, there was a population of about 23 million in Nepal. The population increased
by 5 million from the preceding 1991 census; the growth rate is 2.3%.The current
population is roughly 30 million which contributes to an increase of about 3 million
people every 5 years.

Demography & Population Studies 19

Demography & Population Studies 20
Demography & Population Studies 21
The Kathmandu Valley had a total population of 2,996,341 in
2021, according to the 2021 Nepal census. This includes the
Kathmandu, Lalitpur, and Bhaktapur districts. The National
Statistics Office released the report, indicating that Kathmandu
district alone had a population of 2,041,587.
Key Points:
Total Kathmandu Valley Population (2021): 2,996,341
Kathmandu District Population (2021): 2,041,587
Kathmandu Valley Districts: Kathmandu, Lalitpur, and
Bhaktapur
Highest Population Density: Kathmandu district within the
valley has the highest population density in Nepal.
Urbanization: The Kathmandu Valley is the most developed and
largest urban agglomeration in Nepal.

Demography & Population Studies 22

Demography & Population Studies 23
Demography & Population Studies 24
Increase in Migration
A total of 2,169,478 Nepali persons are living abroad, an increase from 1,921,494 in
2011. Among them, 1,684,029 are males while 237,400 are females. Since 2011, more
and more Nepalis have migrated abroad in search of better opportunities which in turn
is a critical factor for the lower population growth rate in Nepal, presented in the
recent census report of 2021. Despite the pandemic, more than 240,000 labor
permits were granted in 2021 alone, which does not include workers moving to India.
Due to this, around 30% of Nepal’s GDP is in the form of remittance. The census
report also highlighted that the number of women that migrated to foreign countries
has increased by 71% in comparison to the previous census owing to the development
of information and technology.

Demography & Population Studies 25

Growing urban population
Evidently, Kathmandu Metropolitan City has the highest population of 8,45,767 and the highest population
density of 5,108 persons per square kilometer. The rapid growth in population has led to mismanaged
urbanization as more people are migrating to cities like Kathmandu, Bhaktapur and Butwal making it more
populous.
In 2021, the urban population reached 66.8%, which is an increase from what was reported in the 2011
report, where urban population was at 63.2%. In contrast to this, the rural population has decreased to
33.9% in 2021 in comparison to a 36.8% in 2011. Increase in poverty, a lack of education, and employment
opportunities in rural areas are key motivators for people to relocate from rural to urban areas. As more
people migrate to urban areas in search of employment, income levels tend to rise as more jobs and
opportunities are available due to the economic activity.

Declining rural population

The out-migration from 32 districts, including Ramechhap (-1.65% population growth), Khotang (-1.56
%), Manang (-1.41 %), and Bhojpur (-1.32 %) played a big role in the decline of rural population.
Subsequently, a population growth of districts like Bhaktapur (3.32%), Rupandehi (2.3 %), and Chitwan
(2.3 %) with new urban centers like Bharatpur and Butwal, has been observed. According to the report,
53.66 % of the population lives in the Terai, 40.25 % in the hilly region, and 6.09 % in the mountain
region. More people are moving from the mountains to Terai owing to the development of cities in the
Terai region. Similarly, Terai’s population density is rising quickly, reaching 461 people/sq km, compared
to only 34 people/sq km in the mountains. For instance, the Madhesh Province is getting populous with
21% of the population now living there.
Demography & Population Studies 26
Conclusion
Although the population has risen by 10.18% since the last census report, the
annual growth has been at it 80 years lowest at 0.93%. Increasing migration,
urbanization and decreasing fertility are major factors in the slow population
growth. As a Least Developed Country (LDC), it is important for Nepal to maintain
its population to prevent a rapid rise which will negatively impact economic
development. While the report is at its preliminary stage, the final report will
present extensive data on other patterns and trends which is yet to be released.

Demography & Population Studies 27

Demography & Population Studies 28
Demography & Population Studies 29
Demography & Population Studies 30