CHAPTER 3: PROBABILITY

An event: any collection of results or outcomes of a

procedure
A simple event: an outcome/event that can’t be further
broken down into simpler components.
The sample space: A list of all possible simple events.
Equally likely events: are events that have the same
probability of occurring.

Example:
Experiment Sample space
- Toss one coin

- Roll a die

- Answer a True/False question

- Toss two coins

- Toss 3 coins

- Having 3 children.

1
 𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆 𝑬𝑬 𝒏𝒏(𝑬𝑬)
֍ CLASSICAL PROBABILITY: 𝑷𝑷(𝑬𝑬) = 𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻 𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏𝒏 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕 𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔 𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔 = 𝒏𝒏(𝑺𝑺)

Example:
1. Probability of getting a black 10 when drawing a card from a deck is : P(10 black) =

2. If a family has 3 children, P(2 girls) =

3. A card is drawn from an ordinary deck, then

• P (getting a Jack) =

• P (getting the 6 clubs) =

• P (getting a 3 or a diamond) =

• P (getting a 3 or a 6) =

0 ≤ 𝑃𝑃(𝐸𝐸) ≤ 1
⎧
𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝐸𝐸 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜, 𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑃𝑃(𝐸𝐸) = 0
⃰☻ RULES:
⎨ 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝐸𝐸 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐, 𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑃𝑃(𝐸𝐸) = 1
⎩𝑇𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑒 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑒 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑒 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 1

Example: When a single die is rolled, what is the Probability of getting a number greater than 7?
When a single die is rolled, what is the Probability of getting a number less than 7?
2
⃰☻ COMPLEMENTARY EVENT: E is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not included in the
outcomes of event E. The complementary E is denoted by 𝐸𝐸� .
� ) = 𝟏𝟏 − 𝑷𝑷(𝑬𝑬)
𝑷𝑷(𝑬𝑬
Example 1: Find the complementary of each event
a) Rolling a die and getting a 4:
b) Selecting a letter of the alphabet and getting a vowel:
c) Selecting a month and getting a month that beginning with a “J ”:
d) Selecting a day of the week and getting a weekday:
1
Example 2: If P (a person living in an industrialized country of the world) = 5

Then  P (a person is not living in an industrialized country of the world) =

֍ EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY: (Relative Frequency Approximation of Probability)

Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event being in a given class is
𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇 𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇 𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕 𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄 𝒇𝒇
𝑷𝑷(𝑬𝑬) = =
𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻 𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇𝒇 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕 𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅 𝒏𝒏
Example: In a sample of 50 people,
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Σ=
a) P (type O blood) =
b) P (type A or type AB) =
c) P ( neither type A nor type O) =

d) P (person does not have type AB)= P ( not AB) =

3
 TWO EVENTS (or more)
֍ ADDITION RULES FOR PROBABILITY

1) Two events are mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at the same time. (They have no outcome
in common.)
Example:
a) Getting an odd number and getting an even number
b) Getting a 7 and getting a Jack
c) Getting a face card and getting an Ace

2) Addition Rules:
⃰☻ When two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur is
𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝑩𝑩) = 𝑷𝑷 (𝑨𝑨) + 𝑷𝑷(𝑩𝑩)
Example: A day of a week is selected at random. Find the probability that it is a weekend day.

⃰☻If A and B are NOT mutually exclusive, then 𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝑩𝑩) = 𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨) + 𝑷𝑷(𝑩𝑩) − 𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨 𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂 𝑩𝑩)

Example: A single card is drawn at random from an ordinary deck of cards. Find the probability that it is either
an ace or a black card.

4
Example: In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7 nurses and 3 physicians are females. If a staff
person is selected, find the probability that the subject is a nurse or a male.

⃰☻ - Three events A, B, C are mutually exclusive events, then 𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝑩𝑩 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝑪𝑪) = 𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨) + 𝑷𝑷(𝑩𝑩) + 𝑷𝑷(𝑪𝑪)

⃰☻- Three events A, B, C are NOT mutually exclusive events, then

𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝑩𝑩 𝒐𝒐𝒐𝒐 𝑪𝑪) = 𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨) + 𝑷𝑷(𝑩𝑩) + 𝑷𝑷(𝑪𝑪) − 𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨 𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂 𝑩𝑩) − 𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨 𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂 𝑪𝑪) − 𝑷𝑷(𝑩𝑩 𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂 𝑪𝑪) − 𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨 𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂 𝑩𝑩 𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂 𝑪𝑪)

5
֍ MULTIPLICATION RULES FOR PROBABILITY

Two events A and B are independent events if the fact that A occurs does not affect the probability of B
occurring. (Example of tossing a coin and rolling a die.)

⃰☻ When two events are independent, the probability of both occurring is 𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨 𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂 𝑩𝑩) = 𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨) ∙ 𝑷𝑷(𝑩𝑩)

Example:

a) A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a Head on the coin and a 4 on the die.

b) A card is drawn from a deck and replaced, then a second card is drawn. Find the probability of getting a
queen and then an ace.

c) There are 3 red balls, 2 blue balls and 5 white balls in an urn. A ball is selected and color noted then
replaced. A second ball is selected and its color noted. Find

a. Probability of getting 2 blue balls.

b. Probability of getting 1 blue ball and 1 white ball.

c. Probability of getting 1 red ball and 1 blue ball.

6
 d) 46% of Americans say they suffer great stress at least once a week. If there are three people are selected
at random, find probability of all three say they are suffered great stress at least once a week.

⃰☻ When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is 𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨 𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂𝒂 𝑩𝑩) = 𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨) ∙ 𝑷𝑷(𝑩𝑩|𝑨𝑨)

When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the outcome or occurrence of the 2nd event in such a
way that the probability is changed, the events are said to be dependent events.
Example:

𝐴𝐴: 𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑒 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴

1) � then 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴) =
𝐵𝐵: 𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑒 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑎𝑎 𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾

2) Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not replaced. Find
i) P (getting 3 Jacks) =

ii) P (getting Ace, King, Queen in order) =

iii) P (getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order) =

iv) P (getting 3 clubs) =