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Statistics and Probability Fundamentals

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7 views11 pages

Statistics and Probability Fundamentals

Uploaded by

Krishvi Radha
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Module 1

Introduction to Statistics & Data Analysis

Measures of Central Tendency:

1. Mean:

 Arithmetic mean of a set of observations is their sum divided by number of


observations, for example, the arithmetic mean 𝑥̅ of n observations
𝑥 , 𝑥 , 𝑥 , … , 𝑥 is given by:

𝒏
𝟏 𝟏
𝒙 = (𝒙𝟏 +𝒙𝟐 + 𝒙𝟑 + ⋯ + 𝒙𝒏 ) = 𝒙𝒊
𝒏 𝒏
𝒊 𝟏

 In case the frequency distribution 𝑓 , 𝑖 = 1,2,3, … , 𝑛, where 𝑓 is the


frequency of the variable 𝑥 ,

𝑥̅ = ⋯
= ∑ 𝑓 𝑥 , where 𝑁 = ∑ 𝑓

 In case of grouped or continuous frequency distribution, the arithmetic is


h
𝑥̅ = 𝐴 + 𝑓𝑑
𝑁

2. Median:

 In case of ungrouped data, if the number of observations is odd then median is


the middle value after the values have been arranged in ascending or descending
order of magnitude.
 In case of even number of observations, there are two middle terms are median
is obtained by taking the arithmetic mean of the middle terms.
 In the case of continuous frequency distribution, the class corresponding to the
c.f. just greater than is called the median class and the value of median is
obtained by the following formula:
h 𝑁
Median = 𝑙 + −𝑐
𝑓 2
Where 𝑙 is the lower limit of the median class
𝑓 is the frequency of the median class
h is the magnitude of the median class
𝑐 is the c.f. of the class preceding the median class
𝑁 = ∑𝑓
3. Geometric mean:

 The geometric mean, usually abbreviated as G.M. of a set of 𝑛 observations is


the 𝑛 root of their product. Thus, if 𝑋 , 𝑋 , 𝑋 , … , 𝑋 are the 𝑛
observations then their G.M. is given by

𝐺. 𝑀 = 𝑋 × 𝑋 × 𝑋 × …× 𝑋 = 𝑋 × 𝑋 × 𝑋 × …× 𝑋

If 𝑛 = 2 i.e., if we take two observations, then 𝐺. 𝑀 = 𝑋 × 𝑋

 The logarithm of the G.M of a set of observations is the arithmetic mean of


their logarithms.
1
𝐺. 𝑀 = Antilog 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑋
𝑛

4. Harmonic Mean:

 If 𝑋 , 𝑋 , 𝑋 , … , 𝑋 is a given 𝑛 set of observations, then their harmonic


mean, abbreviated as H.M.
1
𝐻=
1 1 1 1 1
𝑛 𝑋 + 𝑋 + 𝑋 +⋯+ 𝑋
1
𝐻=
1 1

𝑛 𝑋

 In case of frequency distribution, we have


1 1 𝑓 𝑓 𝑓
= + +⋯+
𝐻 𝑁 𝑋 𝑋 𝑋

Where, 𝑁 = ∑ 𝑓
𝑋= mid-value of the variable or mid-value of the class

𝑓 = frequency of 𝑋
Measures of variability or Dispersion:

1. Range:
Range is the difference between the greatest (maximum) and the smallest (minimum)
observation of the distribution.
𝑅𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 = 𝑋 −𝑋

2. Quartile deviation:

It is a measure of dispersion based on the upper quartile 𝑄 and the lower quartile 𝑄 .

Q −Q
Quartile deviation (Q. D) =
2

𝐡 𝐍∗𝐢
Where, 𝐐𝐢 = 𝒍 + 𝐟 𝟒
− 𝐜 , 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢 = 𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑

Q = first quartile deviation


Q = second quartile deviation
Q = third quartile deviation

3. Mean Deviation (or) Absolute mean deviation:

For ungrouped data or raw data:


1
𝑀. 𝐷 = |𝑥 − 𝑥̅ |
𝑛

For frequency distribution:


1
𝑀. 𝐷 = 𝑓 |𝑥 − 𝑥̅ |
𝑁

4. Standard Deviation:
1 1
𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = (𝑥 − 𝑥̅ ) = 𝑥 − 𝑥̅
𝑛 𝑛

𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = 𝑆. 𝐷 = 𝜎 = ∑(𝑥 − 𝑥̅ ) (or) ∑ 𝑥 − 𝑥̅

Coefficient of dispersion =
Coefficient of variation= 𝐶. 𝑉 = 100 × ̅
Skewness:
 Mean(𝑀), median 𝑀 and mode 𝑀 fall at different points i.e., 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 ≠ 𝑀𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑛 ≠ 𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒
 Quartiles are not equidistant from median
 The curve drawn with the help of the given data is not symmetrical but stretched more
to one side than to the other.

Measures of Skewness:

Various measures of Skewness (𝑆 ) are:

 𝑆 =𝑀−𝑀
 𝑆 =𝑀−𝑀
 𝑆 = (𝑄 − 𝑀 ) − (𝑀 − 𝑄 )

These are the absolute measures of Skewness.


1. Prof. Karl Pearson’s Coefficient of Skewness:

𝑆 = , 𝜎 is the standard deviation of the distribution.


If mode is ill-defined, then using the empirical relation, 𝑀 = 3𝑀 − 2𝑀, for a
moderately asymmetrical distribution, we get

3(𝑀 − 𝑀 )
𝑆 =
𝜎
𝑆 = 0, if 𝑀 = 𝑀 = 𝑀 . Hence for a symmetrical distribution all are coincide.

2. Prof. Bowley’s Coefficient of Skewness:

(𝑄 − 𝑀 ) − (𝑀 − 𝑄 ) 𝑄 + 𝑄 − 2𝑀
𝑆 = =
(𝑄 − 𝑀 ) + (𝑀 − 𝑄 ) 𝑄 −𝑄

𝑆 = 0, if 𝑄 − 𝑀 = 𝑀 − 𝑄 . Hence for a symmetrical distribution. Median is


equidistant from the upper and lower quartiles.

3. Based upon the moments, coefficient of skewness:


𝛽 (𝛽 + 3)
𝑆 =
2(5𝛽 − 6𝛽 − 9)
𝑆 = 0, if either 𝛽 = 0 or 𝛽 = −3
Kurtosis:

 Prof. Karl Pearson’s calls as the ‘convexity of the frequency curve’ or Kurtosis.
 Kurtosis enables the flatness or peakedness of the frequency curve.
 It is measured by the coefficient 𝛽 or its derivation is given by
𝛽 = ,𝛾 =𝛽 −3

A: Leptokurtic Curve (which is more peaked than the normal curve𝛽 > 3 𝑖. 𝑒. 𝛾 > 0 )
B: Normal Curve or Mesokurtic Curve (which is neither flat nor peaked

𝛽 = 3 𝑖. 𝑒. 𝛾 = 0 )

C: Platykurtic Curve (which is flatter than the normal curve 𝛽 < 3 𝑖. 𝑒. 𝛾 < 0)
Module 2
Probability

 Probability:

If a random experiment or a trial results ‘n’ exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally
likely outcomes, out of which ‘m’ are favourable to the to the occurrence of event E,
then the probability ‘p’ of occurrence or happening of E, usually denoted by P(E), is
given by

𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑚


𝑝 = 𝑃(𝐸) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑥h𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑛

 Conditional Probability:

Let 𝑆 be the sample space of a random experiment. Let 𝐶 ⊂ 𝑆, further let 𝐶 ⊂ 𝐶 , then
the conditional event 𝐶 has already occurred, denoted by 𝑃(𝐶 /𝐶 ) is defined as

𝑃 (𝐶 ∩ 𝐶 )
𝑃(𝐶 /𝐶 ) = , 𝑖𝑓 𝑃 (𝐶 ) ≠ 0
𝑃 (𝐶 )

Or

𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐶 ) = 𝑃(𝐶 )𝑃(𝐶 /𝐶 )

Note:

If 𝐶 , 𝐶 , 𝐶 are any three events, then


𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐶 ∩ 𝐶 ) = 𝑃 (𝐶 )𝑃(𝐶 /𝐶 )𝑃(𝐶 /𝐶 ∩ 𝐶 ), …

 Bayes theorem:

Let 𝐶 , 𝐶 , 𝐶 , … , 𝐶 be a partition of sample space and let C be any event which is a


subset of ⋃ 𝐶 such that
𝑃(𝐶 )𝑃(𝐶/𝐶 )
P(𝐶 ) > 0, 𝑡h𝑒𝑛 𝑃 (𝐶 /C) =
∑ 𝑃 (𝐶 )𝑃 (𝐶/𝐶 )

Discrete Random Variable:

A Random Variable which takes on a finite (or) countably infinite number of values is
called a Discrete Random Variable.

Continuous Random Variable:

A Random Variable which takes on non-countable infinite number of values is called as


non- Discrete (or) Continuous Random Variable.

Probability Mass Function (P.M.F):

The set of ordered pairs 𝑥, 𝑓 (𝑥 ) is a probability function of Probability Mass

Function of a Discrete Random Variable 𝑥.

If for each possible outcome 𝑥, 𝑓(𝑥) must be

(i) 𝑓 (𝑥 ) ≥ 0
(ii) ∑ 𝑓(𝑥) = 1

(iii) 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 𝑓(𝑥 )

The Probability Mass Function is also denoted by 𝑃 (𝑥) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥).

Probability Density Function (P.D.F):

The function 𝑓(𝑥) is a Probability Density Function for the Continuous Random
Variable 𝑥 defined over the set of real numbers 𝑅, 𝑖𝑓

(i) 𝑓 (𝑥 ) ≥ 0, ∀ 𝑥 ∈ 𝑅

(ii) ∫ 𝑓(𝑥 ) 𝑑𝑥 = 1
(iii) 𝑃(𝑎 < 𝑋 < 𝑏) = ∫ 𝑓 (𝑥 ) 𝑑𝑥

Cumulative Distribution Function:

The Cumulative density distribution function of a discrete random variable 𝑋 with


probability distribution function 𝑓 (𝑥 ) as

𝐹(𝑥) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥) = 𝑓(𝑡)

Mathematical Expectation, Variance and Standard deviation:

 Let 𝑋 be a random variable with probability distribution 𝑓(𝑥 ), then the mean
or mathematical expectation of 𝑋 is denoted by 𝐸 (𝑋) and it is denoted by
𝐸 (𝑋) = ∑ 𝑥 𝑓 (𝑥), where 𝑋is a discrete random variable

𝐸 (𝑋) = ∫ 𝑥𝑓 (𝑥 )𝑑𝑥 ,where 𝑋is a continuous random variable

 𝑋 be a random variable with pdf 𝑓(𝑥 ) and the mean 𝜇, then the variance of 𝑋
is
 𝑉(𝑥) = 𝜎 = E[(𝑋 − 𝜇) ] = ∑(𝑋 − 𝜇) 𝑓(𝑥), where 𝑋is a discrete random
variable
 𝑉 (𝑥 ) = 𝜎 = ∫ (𝑋 − 𝜇 ) 𝑓(𝑥), where 𝑋is a continuous random variable
 The positive square root of variance is a standard deviation of 𝑋. It is denoted
by 𝜎(𝑆. 𝐷 ).
 𝐸 (𝑥 ) = ∑ 𝑥 𝑓 (𝑥 ) (Discrete)

 𝐸 (𝑥 ) = ∫ 𝑥 𝑓(𝑥 ) (Continuous)

Marginal Probability Distribution

 Let (𝑋, 𝑌) be a two-dimensional discrete random variable. Then the marginal


probability function of the random variable 𝑋 is defined as

𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥 ) = 𝑃 = 𝑃∗

 The marginal probability function of the random variable 𝑌 is defined as


𝑃 𝑌=𝑦 = 𝑃 = 𝑃∗

 The marginal distribution of 𝑋 is the coefficient of pairs (𝑥 , 𝑃 ∗ ) and of 𝑌 is 𝑦 , 𝑃∗ .

Conditional Probability Distribution

Let (𝑋, 𝑌) be two-dimensional discrete random variable, then

𝑋=𝑥𝑖 ,𝑌=𝑦𝑗 𝑃𝑖𝑗


 𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑥𝑖 /𝑌 = 𝑦𝑗 = =
𝑌=𝑦𝑗 𝑃∗𝑗

𝑋=𝑥𝑖 ,𝑌=𝑦𝑗 𝑃𝑖𝑗


 𝑃 𝑌 = 𝑦𝑗 /𝑋 = 𝑥𝑖 = (𝑋=𝑥𝑖 )
=
𝑃𝑖∗

Continuous random variables 𝑿 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒀:

Joint Probability Density function of (𝑿, 𝒀)

Let (𝑋, 𝑌) be a two-dimensional continuous random variable such that


𝑑𝑋 𝑑𝑋 𝑑𝑌 𝑑𝑌
𝑃 𝑋− ≤𝑋≤𝑋+ , 𝑌− ≤𝑌≤𝑌+ = 𝑓(𝑋, 𝑌) 𝑑𝑋𝑑𝑌
2 2 2 2
Then 𝑓(𝑋, 𝑌) is called the joint density function of (𝑋, 𝑌), if it satisfies the following conditions:

(i) 𝑓(𝑋, 𝑌) ≥ 0, 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑙𝑙 (𝑋, 𝑌) ∈ 𝑅, where R is the range space.


(ii) ∫ ∫ 𝑓(𝑋, 𝑌) 𝑑𝑋𝑑𝑌 = 1

Moreover, if (𝑎, 𝑏), (𝑐, 𝑑) ∈ 𝑅, then

(iii) 𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 𝑏, 𝑐 ≤ 𝑌 ≤ 𝑑) = ∫ ∫ 𝑓(𝑋, 𝑌) 𝑑𝑋𝑑𝑌 = 1

Marginal Probability Distribution:

When (𝑋, 𝑌) be a two-dimensional continuous random variable, then the marginal density function of
the random variable 𝑋 is defined as

𝑓 (𝑥) = 𝑓(𝑥, 𝑦) 𝑑𝑦
The marginal density function of the random variable 𝑌 is defined as

𝑓 (𝑦) = 𝑓(𝑥, 𝑦) 𝑑𝑥

Conditional Probability Distribution

Let (𝑋, 𝑌) be two-dimensional continuous random variable, then


𝑓(𝑥, 𝑦)
𝑓(𝑥/𝑦) =
𝑓 (𝑦)
is conditional probability function of 𝑋 given 𝑌.

( , )
𝑓 (𝑦/𝑥) = ( )
is conditional probability function of 𝑌 given 𝑋.

Moments:
 The 𝑟 moment about the origin of a random variable 𝑋 denoted by 𝜇 is 𝐸(𝑋 ), i.e.,
𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑋 ) = 𝐸(1) = 1
𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑋 ) = 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝜇
𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑋 ) − 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝐸(𝑋 ) − 𝜇
𝐸(𝑋 ) = 𝜎 + 𝜇

Moment Generating function (MGF):

 The MGF of the distribution of a random variable completely describes the nature of the
distribution.

 Let having PDF 𝑓(𝑋), then the MGF of the distribution of 𝑋 is denoted by 𝑀(𝑡) and is
defined as 𝑀(𝑡) = 𝐸(𝑒 ).

∑ 𝑒 𝑓(𝑥) , if 𝑥 is discrete
Thus, the MGF 𝑀(𝑡) =
∫ 𝑒 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥, 𝑖𝑓 𝑥 𝑖𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑢𝑜𝑢𝑠

We know that 𝑀(𝑡) = 𝐸(𝑒 )

𝑡
𝑀(𝑡) = 𝜇
𝑟!

The coefficient of !
is about the origin is 𝜇 .

 If 𝑋 be a continuous random variable, then MGF is


𝑀(𝑡) = 𝑒 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥

𝑀 (𝑡) = 𝑥. 𝑒 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥

𝑀 (𝑡) = ∫ 𝑥 . 𝑒 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥, …

Now at 𝑡 = 0

𝑀(0) = 𝐸(1) = 1

𝑀 (0) = 𝐸(𝑥) = 𝜇

𝑀 (0) = 𝐸(𝑥 ) = 𝜎 + 𝜇

Mean is 𝜇 = 𝑀 (0)

Variance is 𝑀 (0) = 𝑀 (0) − 𝑀 (0)

𝜕
𝜇 = (𝑀(𝑡)) ; 𝑟 = 0,1,2, …
𝜕𝑡

Characteristic function:
 The characteristic function is defined as

⎧ e f(x), for discrete probability distribution


∅ (t) = E e =

e f(x)dx, for continuous probability distribution

 If 𝐹 (𝑥) is the distribution function of a continuous random variable 𝑋, then

∅ (𝑡) = 𝑒 𝑑𝐹(𝑥)

(𝑖𝑡)
𝑀(𝑡) = 𝜇
𝑟!

( )
The coefficient of !
is about the origin is 𝜇 .

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