CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
This chapter aims to present a critical review of the literature on the effects of Boko
haram insurgency on Nigeria Economy (2015-2024). Relevant studies from both developing and
developed context will be reviewed, with particular emphasis on the findings. The chapter
comprises a conceptual clarification, empirical reviews, and a theoretical review.
2.1 Conceptual Review
2.1 Boko-Haram insurgency
Boko Haram, officially known as Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati Wal-Jihad, is an
extremist group with the goal of establishing an Islamic state in Nigeria, based on its radical
interpretation of Islamic law. The group was founded in 2002 by Mohammed Yusuf, but it
gained international notoriety following the death of Yusuf in 2009 under suspicious
circumstances in police custody. The insurgency dramatically escalated in 2015, when Abubakar
Shekau, the group's leader, declared allegiance to ISIS, intensifying its activities both within
Nigeria and in neighboring countries such as Chad, Niger, and Cameroon (Mahdi & Ahmedu,
2024). Later on, the insurgency saw significant shifts in tactics, leadership dynamics, and
territorial control. Scholars have observed that while the group initially focused on attacking
Nigerian security forces and government officials, its strategies broadened to include high-profile
kidnappings, suicide bombings, and assaults on civilians, especially women and children. The
group's expansion was particularly notable in the Lake Chad Basin area, where it became
involved in cross-border attacks (Al Jazeera, 2020; Benstead, 2022).
Ideological Foundations of Boko Haram
Boko Haram’s ideological stance is rooted in its opposition to Western education, which
the group's name, "Boko Haram," directly refers to "Boko" meaning "Western education" in the
Hausa language, and "Haram" meaning "forbidden" in Arabic. The group's ultimate goal is the
creation of a state governed by its strict interpretation of Sharia law. While initially advocating
for the establishment of a theocratic state in the northeast of Nigeria, Boko Haram's rhetoric and
actions have grown increasingly radical as it sought to establish influence over neighboring
countries and sought global recognition, particularly through its pledge of allegiance to ISIS in
2015. Usman & Yaw (2018) argue that Boko Haram’s appeal is partly due to its exploitation of
the socio-economic grievances and the widespread dissatisfaction with government corruption
and underdevelopment in the northern regions of Nigeria. The group's messaging resonates with
impoverished and disillusioned youth, who view Boko Haram's radical ideology as a solution to
systemic inequalities and the failure of state institutions.
Military Tactics and Strategic Evolution (2015-2024)
The period from 2015 to 2024 marked a significant phase of transformation for Boko
Haram in terms of its military capabilities and operational scope. From being an insurgent group
largely based in Nigeria's northeast, it grew to become a transnational threat, engaging in
sophisticated guerrilla warfare, including bombings, ambushes, and the use of child soldiers. By
2016, Boko Haram had intensified its attacks on military and civilian targets, particularly in
Borno State, using both asymmetric warfare tactics and advanced technology such as the use of
vehicles for bombings (Chothia, 2021).
In response, the Nigerian military, alongside forces from Chad, Niger, and Cameroon,
launched a regional counter-insurgency campaign under the auspices of the Multinational Joint
Task Force (MNJTF). However, scholars point out that despite some territorial losses and
infighting within the group (especially after Shekau’s reported death in 2021), Boko Haram
continues to stage significant attacks. The persistence of the group’s operations suggests that its
ideological fervor and local support networks continue to fuel the insurgency, even as the group
suffers losses (Mahdi & Ahmedu, 2024).
Humanitarian Impact
One of the most profound effects of the Boko Haram insurgency is its humanitarian
crisis. Millions of people have been displaced, and thousands have lost their lives. The
insurgency has targeted civilian populations with violence aimed at deterring any support for the
government. Scholars highlight the increasing impact on educational institutions, particularly in
the northeast of Nigeria. According to research by Mahdi and Ahmedu (2024), the insurgency
has disrupted educational systems and hindered growth in the region. Schools, especially those in
the northern parts, have become both literal and symbolic targets for Boko Haram, as they are
seen as representative of Western influence. The humanitarian consequences are not confined to
Nigeria alone, as Boko Haram’s operations also spill over into neighboring countries. Displaced
persons have flooded into refugee camps in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger, creating one of the
largest humanitarian crises in Africa. Scholars argue that the global community’s response has
been insufficient, exacerbating the suffering of millions of people in the affected areas (UNHCR,
2021).
The Regional and International Dimensions
Boko Haram’s insurgency is no longer confined to Nigeria. It has, over time, adopted a
more regional approach, recruiting fighters from neighboring countries and extending its
violence across national borders. The group’s activities, particularly in the Lake Chad Basin,
have led to greater regional instability. Regional military cooperation, such as the MNJTF, was
established in response to this threat, yet scholars note that inter-governmental coordination has
often been fragmented and undermined by political tensions between the countries involved
(Akinyele, 2021). From an international perspective, Boko Haram’s alliance with ISIS marked a
shift from a purely regional insurgency to a global jihadist movement. This connection, scholars
suggest, enhanced the group’s operational capacity and provided it with international legitimacy
among other jihadist factions, though it also led to internal divisions, with some factions of Boko
Haram disavowing the ISIS leadership (Cline, 2022).
Counter-Insurgency Efforts and Challenges
Efforts to counter Boko Haram have largely been military, with the Nigerian government
and its regional allies intensifying operations to dislodge the group from its strongholds.
However, the Nigerian government’s approach has been widely criticized for its lack of
coherence and long-term strategy. Scholars highlight that while military actions have managed to
recapture territory from Boko Haram, these efforts have been insufficient in addressing the root
causes of the insurgency, including poverty, unemployment, and the lack of effective governance
in the region (Onuoha, 2019). Additionally, human rights organizations have raised concerns
over the conduct of military forces in the region, with reports of abuses against civilians and the
targeting of humanitarians working in conflict zones (Amnesty International, 2020). The failure
to address these issues has led to a situation where military success has been short-lived, as the
root causes of insurgency remain unaddressed.
2.1.2 Nigeria Economy
Nigeria's economy is deeply reliant on its oil sector, which has remained the primary
driver of its revenue generation, despite efforts at diversification. The period between 2015 and
2024 saw significant shocks to oil prices, which affected the country's fiscal policies. The global
oil price crash in 2014 and the subsequent drop in Nigeria’s oil export revenues severely
impacted its economic performance. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated Nigeria’s
GDP contraction by 1.6% in 2016, and the country entered a recession that lasted for over a year
(Olaniyan, 2018). A key feature of Nigeria’s economy during this period was the government's
efforts to diversify away from oil dependence through initiatives such as the Economic Recovery
and Growth Plan (ERGP) launched in 2017. This plan was aimed at boosting sectors like
agriculture, manufacturing, and services. Despite these efforts, the oil sector continued to
dominate, accounting for about 9% of GDP by 2020, while the non-oil sector contributed a much
larger share (National Bureau of Statistics [NBS], 2022). Nevertheless, some positive signs
emerged in the economy, such as growth in agriculture and telecommunications, though these
sectors still struggled to reach the scale of oil production (Nwagboso & Abah, 2022).
The Challenges to Growth of Nigeria Economy
The challenges that Nigeria faced between 2015 and 2024 were multifaceted,
encompassing both internal and external factors. Among the most prominent challenges were:
1. Oil Price Volatility
Nigeria's over-reliance on oil exports leaves it vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil
prices. Between 2015 and 2024, oil prices experienced dramatic shifts. The price crash in 2015
and again in 2020, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic, forced the government to cut its
budget and put further pressure on an already strained economy. Scholars point out that these
price fluctuations severely impacted Nigeria's fiscal stability, particularly as the country failed to
diversify its revenue sources (Olayiwola & Folorunsho, 2024).
2. Corruption and Governance Issues
Another major challenge was pervasive corruption within both public and private sectors.
Despite the government's anti-corruption rhetoric, corruption remained widespread and affected
virtually every sector of the Nigerian economy. According to Olayiwola and Folorunsho (2024),
corruption not only diverted resources meant for development but also created inefficiencies in
governance, hindering the effective implementation of economic policies. The diversion of
public funds, particularly in the oil sector, has contributed to Nigeria’s failure to achieve its
economic potential.
3. Inflation and Currency Depreciation
Inflation was another persistent issue during this period. Nigeria’s inflation rate hovered
around 15-18% during 2016-2017, largely driven by food price inflation, which
disproportionately affected the poor. Currency depreciation, especially in the context of a
weakened Naira, compounded inflationary pressures, reducing the purchasing power of Nigerian
households and increasing the cost of imports. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) attempted to
stabilize the currency through various interventions, but with limited success (Eze, 2019).
4. Unemployment and Poverty
Unemployment rates in Nigeria remained high throughout this period, with youth
unemployment particularly severe. According to the World Bank (2021), youth unemployment
was estimated to be over 40% by 2020. The lack of job creation in the formal sector, coupled
with the difficulties in securing loans and access to credit, exacerbated poverty levels. As
Nigeria's population continued to grow, it created immense pressure on the job market, creating a
vicious cycle of poverty and economic hardship (Adeleye & Adebayo, 2022).
5. Security Challenges
Security challenges, including the Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast, clashes
between herders and farmers in the middle belt, and increasing banditry across northern Nigeria,
have also significantly impacted the economy. These challenges have led to displacement,
disrupted agricultural production, and limited access to markets. Akinyele (2021) argue that
security instability directly affects economic growth by deterring investment and increasing the
cost of doing business.
2.2 Empirical Review
2.2.1 The Impact of Boko Haram Insurgency on Agricultura Production in Nigeria.
The Boko Haram insurgency has severely impacted agricultural production in Nigeria,
particularly in the northeastern regions where the insurgency has been most concentrated. As a
key sector of the Nigerian economy, agriculture provides livelihood to millions of people,
especially in rural areas. Boko Haram’s attacks on agricultural communities have primarily
focused on displacing farming populations and destroying farmland. According to research
conducted by Ahmed and Adamu (2024), agricultural workers in the northeastern states of
Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa have been the most affected by the insurgency. These regions,
which are historically known for their agricultural productivity, have witnessed widespread
destruction of crops, livestock, and irrigation infrastructure. Scholars suggest that Boko Haram
insurgents often target the rural farming communities, systematically burning down villages,
looting grain stores, and killing or displacing farmers (Akinyele, 2021). This has rendered many
agricultural workers unable to continue their livelihoods, causing a drastic reduction in local food
production. In addition to the direct violence inflicted upon farmers, the insurgency has created a
climate of fear and insecurity that has severely disrupted the normal functioning of agricultural
markets. Akinyele (2021) emphasizes that many farmers have been forced to abandon their farms
due to fear of violent retribution or death. This abandonment has further intensified food scarcity
and disrupted supply chains, as displaced farmers often struggle to access new land or find work
in urban areas. Furthermore, the lack of security has hindered the movement of agricultural
products, as farmers are unable to safely transport their goods to local markets (Olaniyan, 2018).
Scholars argue that this disruption of food distribution networks has made food prices volatile
and inaccessible to many Nigerians, particularly in conflict-affected regions (Adeleye &
Adebayo, 2022).
The broader socio-economic consequences of the insurgency are intertwined with its
direct impacts on agriculture. The displacement of farmers has resulted in the loss of agricultural
labor, which is especially critical given Nigeria’s reliance on smallholder farming. As pointed
out by Nwagboso and Abah (2022), the insurgency has pushed thousands of families into
poverty, exacerbating the country's already high levels of unemployment and food insecurity.
The displacement of agricultural workers also affects the labor market, particularly in rural areas
where farming is the primary source of income. The loss of agricultural output not only reduces
food availability but also disrupts income flows, further impoverishing affected communities
(Igbekele & Ajayi, 2020). Moreover, the government’s responses to the crisis have been
insufficient in alleviating the adverse effects of Boko Haram’s insurgency on agricultural
production. Programs such as the Anchor Borrowers’ Program (ABP), which aimed to provide
financial support to smallholder farmers, have had limited success in conflict zones due to
ongoing insecurity and the lack of effective infrastructure (Olayiwola & Folorunsho, 2024). As
noted by scholars, even though these programs theoretically have the potential to stimulate
agricultural recovery, their implementation has often been hindered by the logistical challenges
posed by Boko Haram’s presence in key farming regions (Eze, 2019).
In terms of the economic impact, the insurgency’s effects on agriculture have contributed
significantly to rising food prices and increased inflation. According to the World Bank (2021),
Nigeria’s inflation rate reached record highs in the years following the intensification of Boko
Haram’s activities. Food prices surged, largely due to decreased agricultural output and the
inability to import sufficient food from neighboring countries, where security was also a concern.
The reduction in agricultural productivity has led to a dependence on imported goods, further
stressing Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves and contributing to a worsening economic crisis.
Okonjo-Iweala (2021) assert that these dynamics have resulted in a vicious cycle of food
insecurity, inflation, and socio-economic instability. Furthermore, scholars have pointed out the
profound impact of the insurgency on local food systems. With Boko Haram’s continued attacks
on farmers and markets, rural households are often unable to meet their nutritional needs. This is
particularly concerning because agriculture in the northeastern region of Nigeria is not only a
source of income but also a primary means of sustenance. As noted by Adeleke (2020), rural
households depend heavily on locally grown food crops such as millet, sorghum, and cassava,
which have seen declining yields due to the disruptions caused by the insurgency. The absence of
these essential food items has pushed many households into chronic food insecurity. The
insurgency’s negative impact on agriculture is compounded by environmental challenges, such
as droughts and desertification, which have already placed additional stress on Nigeria’s
agricultural systems. In a study by Nwagboso and Abah (2022), it was revealed that the
combined effects of Boko Haram's insurgency and environmental degradation have led to a
further reduction in agricultural productivity, particularly in regions that depend on irrigation. In
northeastern Nigeria, where water resources are scarce, the disruption of irrigation systems by
Boko Haram militants has rendered it nearly impossible for farmers to maintain their crops
during dry seasons. This has compounded the challenge of sustaining agricultural production,
which is already fragile in the face of environmental challenges.
In the broader regional context, the insurgency has also affected neighboring countries
that rely on Nigeria’s agricultural products. The destruction of cross-border agricultural supply
chains has further aggravated food insecurity not just in Nigeria, but in countries like Chad and
Niger, which have historically depended on Nigeria as a major food supplier. According to
studies by Akinyele (2021), this disruption of trade has worsened the humanitarian crisis in the
region, leading to higher food prices and increased poverty levels.
2.2.2 Boko Haram insurgency and unemployment levels in Nigeria.
The violence and insecurity caused by Boko Haram have contributed to widespread
displacement, destruction of livelihoods, and disruption of local economies, which have all
severely undermined the capacity of individuals to secure stable and sustainable employment.
The insurgency has caused a significant displacement of people, especially in the northeastern
states of Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa. According to a study by Oni and Folorunsho (2022), the
insurgency has forced millions of people to abandon their homes and communities, leading to a
significant increase in the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the country. These
displaced populations, many of whom were previously employed in agriculture or small-scale
businesses, have found themselves without means of livelihood. The destruction of farmland, the
disruption of market activities, and the closure of local businesses have left many individuals
without access to income-generating opportunities (Obi & Okonkwo, 2021). The direct effects of
Boko Haram’s violence have been particularly felt in agriculture, which has long been the
backbone of the Nigerian economy, especially in the northern regions. The destruction of crops,
livestock, and farmland by insurgents has made it increasingly difficult for people to engage in
farming, which was a primary source of employment for many Nigerians (Ayodele & Adebayo,
2020). The loss of agricultural output and the subsequent reduction in food production have not
only contributed to food insecurity but have also led to job losses in the agricultural sector.
According to a report by Akinyemi and Ogundele (2019), the insurgency has severely limited
agricultural productivity in the affected regions, which has had far-reaching consequences for
employment, particularly among youth and women who are heavily involved in farming
activities. In addition to the direct disruption of agricultural activities, the Boko Haram
insurgency has also contributed to the deterioration of infrastructure, particularly roads, schools,
and markets. The destruction of transportation infrastructure has made it difficult for people to
access markets, which in turn has hindered trade and commerce. According to Olayemi (2020),
the insecurity caused by the insurgency has created a hostile environment for businesses to
operate, leading to closures and job cuts. In some cases, businesses have been forced to relocate
to safer regions, which has reduced the availability of jobs in the areas most affected by the
insurgency. Moreover, the insurgency has caused a sharp decline in educational opportunities,
further exacerbating the unemployment crisis. According to the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2021), the closure of schools due to Boko Haram’s
attacks has left thousands of children and young adults without access to education. The
disruption of education not only hinders the development of human capital but also limits future
employment prospects for those affected. Young people who are unable to acquire the skills
necessary for formal employment are often left with limited options, which increases their
vulnerability to unemployment (Folarin & Olowu, 2021). The lack of educational opportunities
has also contributed to an increase in the number of young people who are disengaged from the
labor market, further exacerbating the unemployment rate in the country.
The Boko Haram insurgency has also had a significant impact on foreign and domestic
investment in the affected regions. According to scholars such as Akinyele and Ajayi (2019), the
ongoing violence and insecurity have deterred both local and international investors from
establishing businesses in the northeast. The fear of attacks and the lack of security have made it
difficult for businesses to thrive, leading to reduced job creation. Investment in key sectors such
as agriculture, infrastructure, and manufacturing has been severely hindered, which has
contributed to high levels of unemployment (Ayodele & Adebayo, 2020). The absence of
investment in these critical sectors has limited the creation of formal jobs and has left many
Nigerians without sustainable means of livelihood. In addition to economic factors, the insecurity
caused by Boko Haram has also had social implications for the labor market. The breakdown of
social structures, particularly in the affected regions, has made it difficult for people to form
strong community networks that could help them find employment or establish businesses.
According to Olaniyan (2021), the lack of community support has exacerbated the challenges
faced by displaced individuals, many of whom have been forced to migrate to urban areas in
search of work. This influx of people into already crowded urban centers has put pressure on
existing job markets, which has made it even harder for individuals, particularly the youth, to
find employment. In recent years, scholars have pointed out that the insurgency has also
contributed to an increase in informal employment. As formal job opportunities have become
scarce due to the destruction of businesses and the lack of investment, many people have turned
to the informal sector to make a living. However, informal employment is often characterized by
low wages, poor working conditions, and a lack of job security. According to Adebayo and
Olayiwola (2022), the rise in informal employment has not translated into improved living
standards for the affected populations, as many of those engaged in informal work continue to
face significant economic challenges. This trend has further contributed to the high
unemployment rates in Nigeria. Furthermore, the youth unemployment crisis in Nigeria, which
existed before the Boko Haram insurgency, has been exacerbated by the ongoing conflict. The
pre-existing challenges of inadequate job creation, insufficient vocational training, and a lack of
access to credit have made it difficult for young people to find stable employment (Adeola &
Folorunsho, 2020). The insurgency has worsened these problems by displacing large numbers of
young people and depriving them of access to education and employment opportunities. As a
result, many young Nigerians, particularly those from the northeast, have found themselves
increasingly vulnerable to unemployment and poverty.