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Probability Analysis of Couples and Geometric Distribution

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8 views6 pages

Probability Analysis of Couples and Geometric Distribution

Uploaded by

madaladeepthi2006
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

MADANAPALLE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCES

NAME :- M DEEPTHI

ROLL NO:-24691A0598

Class and Section:- CSE B

SET 5:-
(A) The probability that a married man watches a certain
television show is 0.4, and The probability that a married
woman watches the show is 0.5. The probability
That a man watches the show, given that his wife does, is
0.7. Find the probability That (a) a married couple
watches the show; (b) a wife watches the show, given
that Her husband do?
Answer:-

We’re given:

→ probability that a married man watches.

→ probability that a married woman (wife) watches.

→ probability that a man watches given his wife does.

---

(a) Probability that a married couple watches the show


We want _.

By conditional probability:
P(M ∩ W) = P(M | W) × P(W)
Substitute values:
P(M ∩ W) = 0.7 × 0.5 = 0.35
✓ So, the probability that both husband and wife watch is 0.35.

---

(b) Probability that a wife watches, given that her husband does
We want _.

By definition:
P(W | M) = P(M ∩ W) / P(M)
Substitute values:
P(W | M) = 0.35 / 0.4 = 0.875
✓ So, the probability that the wife watches given that her husband does is
0.875.

Final Answers:
(a) 0.35
(b) 0.875

B)

We are given:

X ~ Geometric(p = 0.7)

Here, X represents the trial number on which the first success


occurs, and the support of X is 1, 2, 3, and so on.
1.
Probability Density Function (pdf)

For a Geometric distribution, the probability mass function is


defined as:

P(X = x) = (1 – p)^(x – 1) * p, for x = 1, 2, 3, …

So, with p = 0.7, the formula becomes:

P(X = x) = (0.3)^(x – 1) * 0.7, for x = 1, 2, 3, …

2.
Moment Generating Function (mgf)

The general formula for the moment generating function of a


Geometric distribution is:

M_X(t) = (p * e^t) / (1 – (1 – p) * e^t), valid for e^t < 1 / (1 – p)

Substituting p = 0.7, we get:


M_X(t) = (0.7 * e^t) / (1 – 0.3 * e^t), valid for e^t < 1 / 0.3 ≈ 3.33

3.
Compute P(X < 3) = P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)

So:

P(X = 1) = 0.7
P(X = 2) = (0.3)^1 * 0.7 = 0.21
Therefore, P(X < 3) = 0.7 + 0.21 = 0.91

4.
Compute P(X ≥ 4) = 1 – P(X < 4)

To find this, we first need to compute P(X < 4) = P(X = 1) + P(X =


2) + P(X = 3)

So:

P(X = 3) = (0.3)^2 * 0.7 = 0.063


Therefore, P(X < 4) = 0.7 + 0.21 + 0.063 = 0.973
Thus, P(X ≥ 4) = 1 – 0.973 = 0.027

5.
Mean and Variance

For a Geometric distribution:

E[X] = 1 / p
Var(X) = (1 – p) / p^2

Substituting p = 0.7:

E[X] = 1 / 0.7 ≈ 1.4286


Var(X) = 0.3 / 0.49 ≈ 0.6122

Final Answers:

1.
Probability Density Function (pdf):
P(X = x) = (0.3)^(x – 1) * 0.7, for x = 1, 2, 3, …

2.
Moment Generating Function (mgf):
M_X(t) = (0.7 * e^t) / (1 – 0.3 * e^t), valid for e^t < 3.33

3.
P(X < 3) = 0.91

4.
P(X ≥ 4) = 0.027

5.
E[X] ≈ 1.4286, Var(X) ≈ 0.6122

Common questions

Powered by AI

To calculate P(X < 3), you sum the probabilities of the first two events: P(X = 1) = 0.7 and P(X = 2) = (0.3)^1 * 0.7 = 0.21. Thus, P(X < 3) = 0.7 + 0.21 = 0.91 .

Conditional probability is used to determine how the occurrence of one event (husband watching) influences the likelihood of another (wife watching). The calculation P(W | M) = 0.875 reveals that knowing her husband watches significantly increases the probability that the wife will also watch, suggesting a strong influence or commonality in habit .

To find P(X ≥ 4), you use the complement rule: P(X ≥ 4) = 1 – P(X < 4). First, compute P(X < 4) = P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) = 0.7 + 0.21 + 0.063 = 0.973. Therefore, P(X ≥ 4) = 1 – 0.973 = 0.027 .

Understanding P(X ≥ 4) in a Geometric distribution, which is calculated as 0.027, informs decision-making by highlighting that there is a small probability of needing four or more trials for success. This insight is crucial in risk assessment and resource allocation in statistical modeling, enabling optimized planning and cost management for trials .

In a Geometric distribution, the probability density function (pdf) P(X = x) = (1 – p)^(x – 1) * p describes the probability that the first success will occur on the x-th trial. This reflects the fact that each trial is independent, and the first success indicates that all preceding trials were failures .

The probability that both a husband and wife watch the show is 0.35. This is calculated using conditional probability: P(M ∩ W) = P(M | W) × P(W) = 0.7 × 0.5 = 0.35 .

The moment generating function (mgf) for a Geometric distribution is crucial as it helps in calculating moments like mean and variance. It is computed as M_X(t) = (0.7 * e^t) / (1 – 0.3 * e^t), valid for e^t < 3.33. This function helps in deriving other properties of the distribution efficiently .

For a Geometric distribution, the mean (expected value) is E[X] = 1 / p, and the variance is Var(X) = (1 – p) / p^2. For p = 0.7, E[X] = 1 / 0.7 ≈ 1.4286 and Var(X) = 0.3 / 0.49 ≈ 0.6122 .

The Geometric probability density function P(X = x) = (0.3)^(x – 1) * 0.7 focuses on modeling the probability of the first success after a sequence of failures. Unlike other distributions, it specifically captures 'waiting time' until the first success, highlighting its utility for modeling events that occur independently over time, which differs conceptually from distributions that don't focus on sequential success .

The probability that a wife watches given that her husband does is calculated using P(W | M) = P(M ∩ W) / P(M). Substituting the values gives: P(W | M) = 0.35 / 0.4 = 0.875 .

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