Kwame Nkrumah University of

Science & Technology, Kumasi, Ghana

Flood Risk Assessment

and Management

Prof. Kwaku Amaning Adjei

Miss Vida Akyeampong
 Global Flood Risk
• An estimated 1.81 billion

people, or 23% of the

world population, face
significant flood risk.
• 89% of these individuals
live in low- and middle-
income countries
• Climate
change and rapid
urbanization in flood-
prone areas are likely to
exacerbate flood risks
(IPCC, 2021).

2 [Link].g
h
 Global Flood Risk

3 [Link].g
h
 Global Flood Risk

4 [Link].g
h
 Flood Risk : hazard + vulnerability +exposure

5 [Link].g
h
 Components of Flood Risk
• Hazard H : is the probability that a potentially
damaging event (of given intensity, i.e. water depth,
velocity etc.) will happen in a given area.

• Exposure E : is a measure of importance of the

elements that are exposed to the damaging event.

• Vulnerability V : is a measure of the extent to which a

community, structure, service or geographical area is
likely to be damaged or disrupted, on account of its
nature or location, by the impact of a particular
damaging event.

6 [Link].g
h
7 [Link].g
h
8 [Link].g
h
9 [Link].g
h
 Flood Hazard Assessment

10 [Link].g
h
Flood hazard assessment: areal extent and ‘intensity’

• The goal of flood hazard assessment is to understand

the probability that a flood of a particular intensity will
occur (over an extended period or return period) over
the analysed area.
• Or, which part of the area will be impacted by a flood of
given probability(given return period).
• Intensity usually refers to the flood depth (water stage) in
addition to the horizontal flood extent; but other
intensity measures such as flow velocity and inundation
duration can also be important ( vulnerability curves).

11 [Link].g
h
Floods with a given probability (or a given return
period)
1. Design Flood Peaks from observations of past
flow peaks
• Runoff frequency analysis approaches can be used
to estimate a design hydrograph and in particular
the peak discharge with a given probability or
return period: T-years flood peak
• This is based on long records of accurate past
river discharge measurements at fine time-scale
(time series of maximum annual flood peaks).

12 [Link].g
h
 Floods with a given probability (or a given return
period)
2. Hydrographs obtained from rainfall-runoff modelling
• When no such flow peak series are available, a rainfall-runoff (or
‘hydrological’) model may be fed by a long record of rainfall values
over the drainage area.

• This generates a long-term series of continuous simulated

streamflow, over which a frequency analysis may then be performed
(based on simulated rather than observed flow peaks).

• Or rainfall-runoff modeling can be used to estimate a design

hydrograph which is generated by a rainfall event having an assigned
probability (design hyetograph), from which estimating a design peak
(QT).

13 [Link].g
h
 Flood Hazard Mapping Processes

14 [Link].g
h
 Hydrologic Modelling

15 [Link].g
h
 Rainfall-Runoff Models

They may use available information on:

- Catchment (soil type and use, catchment elevation and slopes, ...)
- River network (geometry of the cross river sections, roughness of
the river bed, slope of the river bed)
• Input:
-Meteorological input (rainfall, snowfall, temperature, wind,
humidity, solar radiation, etc.)

Output:
-River flow (possibly in more than one cross river section)

16 [Link].g
h
 Hydraulic Model
• The rainfall-runoff model can be used to generate runoff values at
the various subcatchments outlets which are the inputs for the river
system and are then routed through streamflow routing hydraulic
models in the river reaches.

• Hydraulic models (1-or 2-dimensional) compute the water depths

(but also the velocities) along the river channel (and in the
floodplains).

• Detailed information (mainly topography/bathimetry and river

bed/slope roughness) is needed.

17 [Link].g
h
 Rainfall –Runoff models

18 [Link].g
h
 Flood Hazard Mapping
• Spatial presentation of inundation areas for a defined flood event
showing maximum of:
–Flood extent (A)
–Flood depths (h)
–Flow velocities (v)
–Inundation timing
–Inundation duration

These values are derived from hydraulic modeling

Used along with information on exposure and vulnerability curves to
identify spatially distributed flood risk ( flood vulnerability).

19 [Link].g
h
Flood Vulnerability and Damage Assessment

20 [Link].g
h
 Flood Vulnerability and Damage Assessment

• Exposure refers to the inventory of elements in an area in which

hazard events may occur, along with their value.

• It maybe estimated if you have adequate spatially-referenced data-

bases on structures, population and economy (such as
orthophotos+ CORINE landcover, cadastral information, etc).

• Vulnerability refers to the propensity of the exposed elements-

such as human beings, their livelihoods, and assets -to suffer
adverse effects when impacted by hazard events.
• Expected Damage = Exposure x Vulnerability
21 [Link].g
h
 Flood Vulnerability and Damage Assessment

22 [Link].g
h
 Vulnerability Curves
• The most used approach for assessing and modeling direct flood
damages are stage-damage functions which relates the relative
or absolute damage for a certain class of objects to the
inundation depth.

23 [Link].g
h
 Depth (stage)+ Velocity = Vulnerability classes for people stability

The vulnerability of the community can be described by using

thresholds related to the stability of people as they walk through
flood waters

Cox et al., 2010

24 [Link].g
h
 Flood risk map

25 [Link].g
h
 Flood Risk Management Measures

26 [Link].g
h
 Flood Risk Management Measures

27 [Link].g
h
 Flood Risk Management Measures

Structural measures: hard engineering works

• keep the floods away from the floodplain
–Modify flood behavior
–Dams and reservoirs, levees, walls, diversion channels, bridge
modifications, channel alterations, etc

Non-structural measures
• defend/reduce damage to the resources from floods
–Modify damage susceptibility
–Flood warning and preparedness; Evacuation and relocation;
Insurance Programs; Flood proofing; etc.

28 [Link].g
h
 Structural Measures

29 [Link].g
h
 Structural Measures
Structural measures are aimed at
1. Flood peak reduction:
• Flood storage reservoirs such as dams, ponds, tanks
• Diversion and by pass channels

30 [Link].g
h
 Structural Measures
2. Increase the hydraulic conveyance of channel:
• Levees and embankments
• Channel modification
• Cutoffs and straightening

31 [Link].g
h
 Non structural measures
• Flood forecasting and warning (preparedness)
• Emergency planning and crisis management
• Floodplain management
Zoning/regulations
Buyout/Acquisition

• Individual measures (private)

•Elevation or Relocation of structures
•Private floodwalls/ringwall/levees
•Dry/Wet Flood Proofing

• Insurances Programs
32 [Link].g
h
 Non structural measures

33 [Link].g
h
 Flood Forecasting and Warning

• Use of real-time precipitation and stream flow data in rainfall-

runoff & stream flow routing models to forecast flow rates and
water levels for periods ranging from a few hours to days ahead
(depending on the size of the watershed or river basin).
• Flood forecasting can also make use of forecasts of precipitation
to extend the lead-time available.
• “Flood forecasting”: a set of forecast time-profiles of streamflows
or river levels at various locations
• “Flood warning": the task of using these forecasts to make
decisions about whether warnings of floods should be issued to the
general public (or whether previous warnings should be rescinded or
retracted) and about activating pre-flood measures.

34 [Link].g
h
 Flood forecasting and Warning

35 [Link].g
h