OPERATIONS RESEARCH
UNIT IV – PERT
Post Graduate and Research Department Of Mathematics
Dwaraka Doss Goverdhan Doss Vaishnav College (Autonomous)
43. For the given activities determine:
1. Critical path. 2. Calculate variance and standard deviation for each activity.
Activity Optimistic time Most likely Pessimistic time
time
1-2 2 5 8
1-4 4 19 28
1-5 5 11 17
2-3 3 9 27
2-6 3 6 15
3-6 2 5 14
4-6 3 6 15
5-7 1 4 7
5-8 2 5 14
6-8 6 12 30
7-8 2 5 8 2
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Expected Variance
𝟐
𝑡 4𝑡 𝑡 duration 𝒕𝒑 − 𝒕𝒐
𝒕𝒐 + 𝟒𝒕𝒎 + 𝒕𝒑
𝟔
𝟔
1-2 2 5 8 5 1
1-4 4 19 28 18 16
1-5 5 11 17 11 4
2-3 3 9 27 11 16
2-6 3 6 15 7 4
3-6 2 5 14 6 4
4-6 3 6 15 7 4
5-7 1 4 7 4 1
5-8 2 5 14 6 4
6-8 6 12 30 14 16
7-8 2 5 8 5 1
The critical path = 1-2-6-8
4
Activity Duration Earliest Latest Earliest Latest Total float
tij Start time start time finish time Finish (7)=(4)-(3)
(i-j)
(𝑬𝒊 ) time (OR)
(1) (2) 𝑳𝒋 − 𝒕𝒊𝒋 𝑬𝒊 + 𝒕𝒊𝒋 =(6)-(5)
(3) (4)=(6)−(2) (Lj)
(5)=(3) +(2)
(6)
1-2 5 0 3 5 8 3
1-4 18 0 0 18 18 0
1-5 11 0 19 11 30 19
2-3 11 5 8 16 19 3
2-6 7 5 18 12 25 13
3-6 6 16 19 22 25 3
4-6 7 18 18 25 25 0
5-7 4 11 30 15 34 19
5-8 6 11 33 17 39 22
6-8 14 25 25 39 39 0
7-8 5 15 34 20 39 19 5
45. For the given activities determine:
1. Critical path. 2. Calculate variance and standard deviation for each activity.
Activity Optimistic Most likely time Pessimistic time
time
1-2 4 5 6
1-3 8 9 11
1-4 6 8 12
2-4 2 4 6
2-5 3 4 6
3-4 2 3 4
4-5 3 5 8
6
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Expected Variance
𝟐
𝑡 4𝑡 𝑡 duration 𝒕 𝒑 − 𝒕𝒐
𝒕𝒐 + 𝟒𝒕𝒎 + 𝒕𝒑
𝟔
𝟔
1-2 4 5 6 30/6 4/36
1-3 8 9 11 55 /6 9/36
1-4 6 8 12 50/6 1
2-4 2 4 6 24/6 16/36
2-5 3 4 6 25/6 9/36
3-4 2 3 4 18 /6 4/36
4-5 3 5 8 31/6 25/36
25
30 2 24 6
6 6 5
50
1 4 31
6
55 18 6
3 6
6
1-2-4-5
8
46
9
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Expected Variance
𝟐
𝑡 4𝑡 𝑡 duration 𝒕 𝒑 − 𝒕𝒐
𝒕𝒐 + 𝟒𝒕𝒎 + 𝒕𝒑
𝟔
𝟔
1-2 2 4 5 23/6 9/36
1-3 3 4 6 25/6 9/36
1-4 4 5 6 30/6 4/36
2-4 8 9 11 55/6 9/36
2-5 6 8 12 50/6 1
3-4 2 3 4 18/6 4/36
4-5 2 5 7 29/6 25/36
23 2 50
6 55 6
30 6 29
1 4
6
25 6 5
18
6 3 6
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47. For the given activities determine: (a). Critical path. (b). Calculate variance and
standard deviation for each activity. (c) Find the probability that the project is
completed in 40 days.
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
1-2 1 7 13
1-6 2 5 14
2-3 2 14 26
2-4 2 5 8
3-5 7 10 19
4-5 5 5 17
6-7 5 8 29
5-8 3 3 9
7-8 8 17 32
12
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Expected Variance
𝟐
𝑎 𝑚 duration 𝒃−𝒂
b 𝒂 + 𝟒𝒎 + 𝒃
𝟔
𝟔
1-2 1 7 13 7 4
1-6 2 5 14 6 4
2-3 2 14 26 14 16
2-4 2 5 8 5 1
3-5 7 10 19 11 4
4-5 5 5 17 7 4
6-7 5 8 29 11 16
5-8 3 3 9 4 1
7-8 8 17 32 18 16
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(c) Probability Project due date is 40 days
Scheduled time = 40 days
Expected time = 36 days
𝑧= = = 0.8
𝑝 = 0.5 + 0.2881 = 0.7881
The Probability of completing in 40 days is 78.8%
0.5 + 0.2881 = 0.7881
15
41. For the given activities (in days) determine: (a). Critical path. (b).What is the
probability that it would take 5 days more than expected duration (c) Find the project
completion time with 95% confidence.
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
1-2 1 4 7
1-3 5 10 17
2-4 3 3 3
2-6 1 4 7
3-4 8 15 26
3-5 2 4 8
4-5 5 5 5
5-6 2 5 8
16
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Expected Variance
𝟐
𝑡 𝑡 𝑡 duration 𝒕𝒑 − 𝒕𝒐
𝒕𝒐 + 𝟒𝒕𝒎 + 𝒕𝒑
𝟔
𝟔
1-2 1 4 7 24/6 1
1-3 5 10 17 62/6 4
2-4 3 3 3 18/6 0
2-6 1 4 7 24 /6 1
3-4 8 15 26 94/6 9
3-5 2 4 8 26/6 1
4-5 5 5 5 30/6 0
5-6 2 5 8 30/6 1
4+9+1 14
𝜎= = = 1.63
6 6
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(c) Probability Project due date is 41 days
Scheduled time = 41 days
Expected time = 36 days
𝑧= = = 3.07
.
𝑝 = 0.5 + 0.4989 = 0.9989
The Probability of completing in 41 days is 99.9%
0.5 + 0.4989 = 0.9989
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(d) Completion time with 95% Probability
Expected time = 36 days 95% Probability z=1.645
𝑧= = = 1.645
.
𝑥 = 36 + 1.645 × 3.74 = 38.68 days
The 95% Probability of completing in 38.68 days
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