Activity Planning & Risk Management Guide
Activity Planning & Risk Management Guide
Book :Bob Hughes, Mike Cotterell and Rajib Mall: Software Project Management – Fifth
Edition, Tata McGraw Hill, NewDelhi, 2012.
• Resource allocation: - What are the most effective ways of allocating resources to the
project. When should the resources be available? The project plan allows us to
investigate relation between timescales and resource availability (in general, allocating
additional resources to the project shortens its duration) and the efficacy of additional
spending on resource procurement.
• Detailed costing: - How much will the project cost and when is that expenditure likely
to take place? After producing an activity plan and allocating specific resources we
can obtain more detailed estimates of costs and their timing.
• Motivation: - Providing targets and being seen to monitor achievements against the
targets is an effective way of motivating staff. Particularly where they have been
involved in setting those targets in the first place.
The project plan, particularly with large project involving more than a single project
team.
• Once the plan has been refined to this level of detail we call it a project schedule.
• The first step in producing the plan is to decide what activities need to be carried
out and in what order they are to be done. From this we can construct an ideal
activity plan – that is, a plan of when each activity would ideally be undertaken
were resources not a constraint.
• The ideal activity plan will then be the subject of an activity risk analysis, aimed
at identifying potential problems. This might suggest alterations to the ideal
activity plan and will almost certainly have implications for resource allocation.
• The final step is schedule production. Once resources have been allocated to
each activity, we will be in a position to draw up and publish a project schedule,
which indicates planned start and completion dates and a resource requirements
statement for each activity.
• An activity must have a clearly defined start and a clearly defined end-point,
normally marked by the production of a tangible deliverable.
• If an activity requires a resource (as most do) then that resource requirement must
be forecastable and is assumed to be required at a constant level throughout the
duration of the activity.
• The duration of an activity must be forecastable – assuming normal
circumstances, and the reasonable availability of resources.
• Some activities might require that others are completed before they can begin
(these are known as precedence requirements).
The chart shown has been drawn up taking account of the nature of the development
process (that is, certain tasks must be completed before others may start) and the
resources that are available (for example, activity C follows activity B because Andy
cannot work on both tasks at the same time).
The scheduling has had to take account of the availability of staff and the ways in which
the activities have been allocated to them.
The schedule might look quite different were there a different number of staff or were we
to allocate the activities differently.
In the case of small projects, this combined sequencing–scheduling approach might be
quite suitable, particularly where we wish to allocate individuals to particular tasks at an
early planning stage.
However, on larger projects it is better to separate out these two activities: to sequence
the tasks according to their logical relationships and then to schedule them taking into
account resources and other factors.
4.5 Network Planning Models
These project scheduling techniques model the project’s activities and their relationships
as a network.
In the network, time flows from left to right. These techniques were originally developed
in the 1950s – the two best known being CPM (Critical Path Method) and PERT
(Program Evaluation Review Technique).
Both of these techniques used an activity-on-arrow approach to visualizing the project as
a network where activities are drawn as arrows joining circles, or nodes, which
represent the possible start and/or completion of an activity or set of activities.
More recently a variation on these techniques, called precedence networks, has become
popular.
• More recently a variation on these techniques, called precedence networks, has become
popular.
• This method uses activity-on-node networks where activities are represented as nodes
and the links between nodes represent precedence (or sequencing) requirements.
• A project network should have only one end node The end node designates the
completion of the project and a project may finish only once! Although it is
possible to draw a network with more than one end node, it will almost certainly
lead to confusion if this is done. Where the completion of a project depends upon
more than one ‘final’ activity it is normal to invent a ‘finish’ activity.
• A node has duration A node represents an activity and, in general, activities take
time to execute. Notice, however, that the network in Figure 6.7 does not contain
any reference to durations. This network drawing merely represents the logic of
the project – the rules governing the order in which activities are to be carried out.
• Precedents are the immediate preceding activities In Figure 6.9, the activity ‘Program
test’ cannot start until both ‘Code’ and ‘Data take-on’ have been completed and activity
‘Instal’ cannot start until ‘Program test’ has finished. ‘Code‘ and ‘Data take-on’ can
therefore be said to be precedents of ‘Program test’, and ‘Program test’ is a precedent of
‘Instal’.
• Time moves from left to right If at all possible, networks are drawn so that time moves
from left to right.
• Precedents are the immediate preceding activities In Figure 6.9, the activity ‘Program
test’ cannot start until both ‘Code’ and ‘Data take-on’ have been completed and activity
‘Instal’ cannot start until ‘Program test’ has finished. ‘Code‘ and ‘Data take-on’ can
therefore be said to be precedents of ‘Program
• test’, and ‘Program test’ is a precedent of ‘Instal’.
• Time moves from left to right If at all possible, networks are drawn so that time moves
from left to right.
• A network may not contain loops Figure 6.10 demonstrates a loop in a network. A loop is
an error in that it represents a situation that cannot occur in practice. While loops, in the
sense of iteration, may occur in practice, they cannot be directly represented in a project
network. Note that the logic of Figure 6.10 suggests that program testing cannot start
until the errors have been corrected.
• A network should not contain dangles A dangling activity such as ‘Write user manual’ in
Figure 6.11 should not exist as it is likely to lead to errors in subsequent analysis. Indeed,
in many cases dangling activities indicate errors in logic when activities are added as an
afterthought.
• If, in Figure 6.11, we mean to indicate that the project is complete once the software has
been installed and the user manual written then we should
• redraw the network with a fi nal completion activity – which, at least in this case, is
probably a more accurate representation of what should happen. The redrawn network is
shown in Figure 6.12.
• Where activities can occur in parallel with a time lag between them, we represent
the lag with a duration on the linking arrow as shown in Figure 6.13. This indicates
that documenting amendments can start one day after the start of prototype testing
and will be completed two days after prototype testing is completed.
• Where an actual start date is known, the calculations may be carried out using actual
dates. Alternatively we can use day or week numbers and that is the approach we shall
adopt here. By convention, dates indicate the end of a period and the project is therefore
shown as starting at the end of week zero (or the beginning of week 1).
• The forward pass and the calculation of earliest start dates are carried out according to the
following reasoning..
o Activities A, B and F may start immediately, so the earliest date for their start is
zero.
o Activity A will take 6 weeks, so the earliest it can finish is week 6.
o Activity B will take 4 weeks, so the earliest it can finish is week 4.
o Activity F will take 10 weeks, so the earliest it can finish is week 10.
– Activity C can start as soon as A has finished so its earliest start date is week 6. It
will take 3 weeks so the earliest it can finish is week 9.
– Activities D and E can start as soon as B is complete so the earliest they can each
start is week 4.
– Activity D, which will take 4 weeks, can therefore finish by week 8 and activity
E, which will take 3 weeks, can therefore finish by week 7.
– Activity G cannot start until both E and F have been completed. It cannot
therefore start until week 10 – the later of weeks 7 (for activity E) and 10 (for
activity F). It takes 3 weeks and finishes in week 13.
– Similarly, Activity H cannot start until week 9 – the later of the two earliest finish
dates for the preceding activities C and D.
– The project will be complete when both activities H and G have been completed.
Thus the earliest project completion date will be the later of weeks 11 and 13 –
that is, week 13.
– The results of the forward pass are shown in Figure 6.15.
• Activities E and F must be completed by week 10 so their earliest start dates are
weeks 7 (10 – 3) and 0 (10 – 10) respectively.
• Activity B must be completed by week 7 (the latest start date for both activities D
and E) so its latest start is week 3 (7 – 4).
• Activity A must be completed by week 8 (the latest start date for activity C) so its
latest start is week 2 (8 – 6).
• The latest start date for the project start is the earliest of the latest start dates for
activities A, B and F.
• This is week zero. This is, of course, not very surprising since it tells us that if the
project does not start on time it won’t finish on time.
Any activity with a float of zero is critical in the sense that any delay in carrying
out the activity will delay the completion date of the project as a whole.
In planning the project, it is the critical path that we must shorten if we are to reduce
the overall duration of the project.
Figure 6.17 also shows the activity span. This is the difference between the earliest
start date and the latest finish date and is a measure of the maximum time allowable
for the activity. However, it is subject to the same conditions of interpretation as
activity fl oat, which is discussed in the next section.
RISK MANAGEMENT
Risk as ‘an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative
effect on a project’s objectives’.
Specialized list of software development risks by Barry Boehm appears in Table 7.1 in
a modified version. Ideally a group of representative project stakeholders examines a
checklist identifying risks applicable to their project. Often the checklist suggests
potential countermeasures for each risk.
4.9.1 Brainstorming
Ideally, representatives of the main stakeholders should be brought together once
some kind of preliminary plan has been drafted.
They then identify, using their individual knowledge of different parts of the project,
the problems that might occur. This collaborative approach may generate a sense of
ownership in the project.
4.10 Risk Assessment
A common problem with risk identification is that a list of risks is potentially endless.
A way is needed of distinguishing the damaging and likely risks.
This can be done by estimating the risk exposure for each risk using the formula:
risk exposure = (potential damage) X (probability of occurrence)
• The risk exposure in this case would be:
£500,000 X 3 0.001 = £500
The calculation of risk exposure above assumes that the amount of damage sustained will
always be the same.
Figure 7.3. This shows the probability of a task being completed in four days (5%), then
five days (10%), and so on. The accumulated probability for the seventh day (65%) means
that there is a 65% chance that the task will be finished on or before the seventh day.
• Clients would almost certainly insist we pick one of the days as the target.
• This target could be ‘aggressive’, for instance only five days in the above scenario, but
with an 85% chance of failure according to the chart.
Table 7.2 provides an example, based on Amanda’s IOE group accounts project, of where this
has been done. This value could be used to prioritize the importance of risks, although more
sophisticated risk calculations are not possible.
Another approach is to use qualitative descriptions of the possible impact and the likelihood of
each risk – see Tables 7.3 and 7.4 for examples.
In Table 7.4, the potential amount of damage has been categorized in terms of its impact on
project costs. Other tables could show the impact of risks on project duration or on the quality of
the project deliverables.
Having identified the major risks and allocated priorities, the task is to decide how to deal with
them.
The choices discussed will be:
risk acceptance;
risk avoidance;
risk reduction and mitigation;
risk transfer.
• An advantage of this approach is that it places an emphasis on the uncertainty of the real
world.
• Rather than being tempted to say ‘the completion date for the project is. . .’ we are led to
say ‘we expect to complete the project by. . .’.
• It also focuses attention on the uncertainty of the estimation of activity durations.
These three target dates are shown on the PERT network in Figure 7.7.
The PERT technique uses the following three-step method for calculating the probability of
meeting or missing a target date:
● calculate the standard deviation of each project event;
● calculate the z value for each event that has a target date;
● convert z values to a probabilities.
We can use the technique to calculate the standard deviation for each task and use
this to rank them according to their degree of risk.
by setting target dates along the critical path, we can focus on those activities
posing the greatest risk to the project’s schedule.
Monte Carlo simulation is expected to give a more realistic result than manual analysis of
a few cases, especially because manual analysis implicitly gives equal weights to all
scenarios.
– Usage charges In some organizations, projects are charged directly for use of resources
such as computer time (rather than their cost being recovered as an overhead). This will
normally be on an ‘as used’ basis.
QUESTIONS
1. What are the key objectives of activity planning in a project? Explain. (10M)(L2)
2. What are the four main stages involved in producing a project schedule? (10M) (L2)
3. Analyze the differences between the activity-based approach and the product-based
approach for identifying activities in a project. How might each approach impact the
overall project plan and schedule? (10M) (L4)
4. What is the importance of considering resource availability when creating a project
schedule? (10M) (L2)
5. Explain the importance of avoiding loops and dangling activities in a project network
model, and describe how hammock activities are used to represent overhead costs.
(10M) (L2)
6. Explain the process of the forward pass in project scheduling. Use the example
provided to calculate the earliest start and finish dates for each activity, and discuss
how these calculations contribute to determining the project's earliest completion date.
(10M) (L3)
7. Describe the purpose of the backward pass in project scheduling. Using the example
provided, explain how the backward pass calculates the latest start and finish dates for
activities, and discuss its significance in determining the project's flexibility and critical
path. (10M) (L2)
8. Analyze how identifying the critical path in a project management network can
influence project planning and execution.(L3)(10M)
9. Evaluate the effectiveness of using checklists versus brainstorming for identifying risks
in software development projects.(L2)( 10M)
10. How would you prioritize risks in a software development project using both
quantitative and qualitative methods? (L3) (10M)
11. How can the PERT technique be utilized to evaluate and manage the uncertainties in a
project schedule, and what are the steps involved in calculating the probability of
meeting target dates? (L4) (10M)